1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a medium - term bullish view on rubber prices. Future 3 - 14 days see an increased risk of heavy rain and flash floods in Thailand, which is positive for supply [10][11][12]. - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity rally. The significant decline in rubber prices has curbed supply, and the market is currently in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the spread trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, gradually closing positions and conducting band operations [11][16][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Medium - term bullish on rubber prices due to increased flood risks in Thailand, which affect supply. Short - term, prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips [10][11][12]. - Key factors to watch include the overall sentiment of industrial products, domestic demand policies, the progress of downstream inventory accumulation, and whether Thailand's supply is affected by typhoons and floods [11][16]. - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, an indefinite period, and a high recommendation level [22]. 3.2 Cost - end - The general market view is that the cost of cup - lump rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex rubber is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [55]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. High rubber prices lead to high maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while low prices result in the opposite [55]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber shows consistent seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29][33]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [36]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data are normal, without special or noteworthy values. Black and rubber varieties generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 3.5 Demand - end - The overall tire factory full - steel tire operating rate is 59.78% (-4.06%). Full - steel tire exports are good, while semi - steel tire inventory consumption is slow [16]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly [64][67]. 3.6 Supply - end - Supply is generally normal, without special or noteworthy values. In July 2025, rubber production was 1,014.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.95% and a month - on - month increase of 6.19% [72][102]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to be put into operation in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits [20].