| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15415 | 385 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12465 | 365 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 60 | 60 20号胶11-12价差(日,元/吨) | 10 | 10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2950 | 20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 140720 | -378 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 34149 | -52 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -22185 | 3236 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11125 | -482 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 145390 | -4420 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 41632 | -402 | | | | 现货市场 | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14650 | 350 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15250 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a medium - term bullish view on rubber prices. Future 3 - 14 days see an increased risk of heavy rain and flash floods in Thailand, which is positive for supply [10][11][12]. - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity rally. The significant decline in rubber prices has curbed supply, and the market is currently in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the spread trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, gradually closing positions and conducting band operations [11][16][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Medium - term bullish on rubber prices due to increased flood risks in Thailand, which affect supply. Short - term, prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips [10][11][12]. - Key factors to watch include the overall sentiment of industrial products, domestic demand policies, the progress of downstream inventory accumulation, and whether Thailand's supply is affected by typhoons and floods [11][16]. - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, an indefinite period, and a high recommendation level [22]. 3.2 Cost - end - The general market view is that the cost of cup - lump rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex rubber is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [55]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. High rubber prices lead to high maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while low prices result in the opposite [55]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber shows consistent seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29][33]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [36]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data are normal, without special or noteworthy values. Black and rubber varieties generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 3.5 Demand - end - The overall tire factory full - steel tire operating rate is 59.78% (-4.06%). Full - steel tire exports are good, while semi - steel tire inventory consumption is slow [16]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly [64][67]. 3.6 Supply - end - Supply is generally normal, without special or noteworthy values. In July 2025, rubber production was 1,014.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.95% and a month - on - month increase of 6.19% [72][102]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to be put into operation in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits [20].

下 灰安期货 18000 600 - 18000 16000 16000 400 14000 14000 200 12000 12000 0 10000 10000 -200 8000 8000 6000 6000 -400 le 6 11 4 8 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 6 1 1 6 1 2 8 2 0 1 2 2 11 ly r /> 6 6 l of the la -600 - 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 - 2020 - - 2024 - · 2020 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 202 2025 - 2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 · · 2025 顺丁齐鲁石化出厂价(两油出厂价) 高顺CFR东北亚 高顺CFR东南亚 18000 - 2500 - 3000 16000 2500 2000 14000 2000 1 500 12000 1500 1000 10000 1000 500 8000 500 6000 0 and the state of the state of the for the state of t ...

Core Viewpoint - Changhong Gaoke (605008.SH) has decided to terminate its investment plan to establish a joint venture with Panjin Shengteng Industrial Development Co., Ltd due to the ongoing downturn in the photovoltaic industry and the uncertainty in future profitability [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Plan Details** - The original investment plan involved a total investment of 500 million yuan, with Changhong Gaoke contributing 225 million yuan for a 45% stake and Panjin Shengteng contributing 275 million yuan for a 55% stake [1] - **Market Conditions** - Since the third quarter of 2023, the photovoltaic industry chain has been in continuous decline, leading to POE film prices dropping to historical lows without signs of recovery [1] - **Decision Rationale** - The decision to terminate the investment was made to protect the interests of the company and its shareholders, as the future profitability of the project is highly uncertain [1]

l js 永安合成橡胶早报 顺丁出口利润(东南亚) 6000 - 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 le e -100Q 2 -2000 2020 2021 = · 2022 2023 · 2024 2025 BD 卫星化学丁二烯纸货结构 东明石化丁二烯竞拍情况 14000 1 200 13000 800 700 13000 1000 12000 600 12000 500 11000 500 11000 400 10000 0 300 10000 200 -500 9000 9000 100 -1000 8000 8000 0 12/2025 /12/2025 /26/2025 16/2025 6/4/2025 6/18/2025 6/25/2025 /18/2025 /19/2025 3/5/2025 19/2025 26/2025 6/11/2025 /8/2025 15/2025 2/5/2025 /14/2025 /28/2025 22/2025 /21/2025 707/6/1 707/7/1 2/25/202 707/51 707/8/1 tor 197 4/9/2025 ( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices as large price drops have curbed supply and the market is in a bottom - building phase. It's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time [11]. - The recent sharp rise in rubber prices is due to the supply concerns caused by the Thailand - Cambodia border friction. There is a need for dynamic assessment as the conflict may either expand and push prices up or end suddenly and lead to price corrections [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices have risen significantly, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the situation where tire companies in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy is a significant macro - level positive factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price rally in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Due to large price drops suppressing supply, the market is in a bottom - building phase, and it's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time. The market responded positively to this view [11]. - The Thailand - Cambodia border friction on July 24, 2025, led to supply concerns and a continuous sharp rise in rubber prices. The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, so dynamic assessment is required [11]. - The short - term price increase is large, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the potential over - export situation of tire companies [11]. - For rubber RU, a neutral approach with quick in - and - out trading is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the mid - term. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the price spread is at a low level [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [25]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - Most of the price ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to螺纹 steel, rubber to iron ore, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special points of concern [40][43][47]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [51]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while lower prices result in less maintenance and lower costs [51]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tire factories is 65.02% (- 0.08%), and the inventory of all - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to domestic supporting demand [61]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [64]. 3.6 Supply Side - In May 2025, the total rubber production was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The cumulative production was 3700 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11% [102]. - For major rubber - producing countries in May 2025, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% and a month - on - month increase of 157.52%; Indonesia's production was 200.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% and a month - on - month increase of 3.19%; Malaysia's production was 20 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.88% and a month - on - month increase of 11.11%; Vietnam's production was 85.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.00% and a month - on - month increase of 42.50% [102]. - Most of the supply - related data in the supply - demand balance sheet show normal values without special points of concern [72][76][79].

Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract was 11,995, up 275 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week; the trading volume was 87,016, down 3,349 from the previous day but up 12,030 from the previous week; the open interest was 14,993, down 2,221 from the previous day and 9,436 from the previous week; the warehouse receipt quantity was 9,700, unchanged from the previous day and up 500 from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis (Shun - Ding) was -145, down 125 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 spread was 25, unchanged from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week; the 9 - 10 spread was 25, down 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,850, up 150 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,800, up 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 12,000, up 300 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was -372, down 233 from the previous day and 269 from the previous week; the futures processing profit was -227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from the previous week; the import profit was -85,993, down 2,208 from the previous day and 2,358 from the previous week; the export profit was -733, down 138 from the previous day and 161 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,825, up 375 from the previous day and 460 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,600, up 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, up 200 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,050, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week [4]. - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was not available; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 646, up 150 from the previous day and 510 from the previous week; the import profit was 933, up 157 from the previous day and 451 from the previous week; the export profit was -1,468, down 136 from the previous day and 395 from the previous week [4]. Downstream Products - **Profit**: The butadiene rubber production profit was -227, down 108 from the previous day and 99 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 525, down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was not available; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 530, down 140 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week [4]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was -98, up 2,306 from the previous day and 9,971 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was -2,243, up 2,296 from the previous day and 9,861 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,720, down 80 from the previous day and up 220 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 2,500, down 150 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week; the butadiene rubber standard - non - standard spread was 100, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the macro - environment, and the current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price is in the bottom - building stage, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term. However, attention should be paid to the potential under - expectation of future exports caused by the phased rush exports of tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam to avoid additional tariffs [13]. - The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is no need to be pessimistic. The long - position logic is mainly based on the expected production cuts due to reduced supply in Thailand and Indonesia, while the short - position logic lies in the poor macro - expectations, expected increase in supply, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policy expectations, whether the supply in Thailand will increase, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral trading strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term [14][15]. Summaries by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Recent Key Points**: The anti - involution policy is a major macro - positive factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. The rubber price has dropped significantly, suppressing supply, and it is in the bottom - building stage. There is a need to pay attention to the potential under - expectation of future exports due to the phased rush exports of tire enterprises [13]. - **RU Rubber Summary**: The rubber price is oscillating at the bottom. The tire factory's full - steel tire operating rate is 63.75% (- 1.89%), and the full - steel tire inventory is high. The total inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.58 (0.95) tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting production cuts and others expecting partial production increases. The market expects small - scale rubber purchasing and storage in the future. The long - position logic is based on production cuts in Thailand and Indonesia, and the short - position logic is due to poor macro - expectations, expected supply increase, and dull demand. In the short - term, the market is macro - driven, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to macro - policies, Thai supply, and policy implementation. Currently, a neutral strategy can be adopted, and a long - position strategy should be prepared for the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread between long RU2601 and short RU2511 [15]. 2. Cost End - The general market view is that the cost of cup - rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is about 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and lower costs when the price is low. In the first half of 2024, rubber farmers were highly motivated [54]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - **Seasonality**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the price drops occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [27]. - **Overseas and Domestic Demand**: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [32]. - **Ratio with Crude Oil**: The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [35]. 4. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The price trends of black commodities and rubber are similar, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [43][46]. 5. Demand End - **Tire Operating Rate**: The operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values [59]. - **Mid - stream Demand**: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [64][67]. 6. Supply End - **Import Data**: The rubber import data, including natural and synthetic rubber, has not been updated since December 2021, and the analyzability of import data has decreased [71]. - **Production and Export Data**: The supply - related data of major rubber - producing countries are generally normal, without special values. In April 2025, the rubber production was 565.5 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.43% and a month - on - month increase of 2.46%. The rubber export was 655.3 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.22% [105][106].

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of April 28, cup rubber is priced at 52.05 THB/kg (+0.85), latex at 58.00 THB/kg (+0.30), Yunnan rubber water acquisition price at 13,800 CNY/ton (+100), Hainan fresh latex at 14,400 CNY/ton (-100), full latex in Shanghai market at 14,550 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard at 1,720 USD/ton (0), and Thai mixed at 14,300 CNY/ton (-100) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 74.20%, down 0.19 percentage points month-on-month and down 6.67 percentage points year-on-year. The overall sales have not improved significantly, leading to increased finished product inventory [1] - The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 67.44%, up 0.23 percentage points month-on-month and down 3.62 percentage points year-on-year. Some enterprises have slightly increased production to address shortages, resulting in a minor increase in capacity utilization [1] Inventory Turnover - As of April 17, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 45.40 days, up 1.08 days month-on-month and up 16.46 days year-on-year. For all-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 42.36 days, up 0.40 days month-on-month and up 1.21 days year-on-year [2] Export Data - According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in Q1 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with an export value of 40 billion CNY, up 7%. The export volume of new inflatable rubber tires was 2.15 million tons, up 5.9%, and the export value was 38.4 billion CNY, up 6.8% [2] Market Conditions - Supply-side conditions are favorable for seasonal tapping, leading to expectations of strong new rubber supply, which may suppress rubber prices. Demand remains weak, with no significant improvement in sales for semi-steel tire enterprises, leading to increased inventory pressure and a decline in capacity utilization [3] - The domestic market for all-steel tires is also weak, with no noticeable increase in end-user demand and sufficient inventory among distributors, resulting in slow inventory digestion [3] - Overall, with the release of raw materials and the impact of U.S. tariff policies, demand expectations are weak, which may limit the upward potential of rubber prices, with an expected trading range of 14,000 to 15,000 CNY [3]