胶价筑底择机做多 橡胶月报 2025/07/04 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 月度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 ◆ 反内卷政策影响巨大。是非常重要的宏观利多。 ◆ 我们观察，当下环境和商品价格和2016年商品的上涨有类似之处。 ◆ 2016年商品上涨，上涨品种和上涨幅度都非常客观，影响巨大。 ◆ 中期看多，因胶价跌幅巨大，抑制供应，目前筑底阶段。未来择机准备翻多。 ◆ 需要关注中国、泰国和越南轮胎企业为避免加关税阶段性抢出口，造成未来出口的不及预期的情况。 橡胶RU要点小结：胶价震荡磨底不必悲观 ◆ 公众号五矿微服务，每日早晨有最新版，包括各品种最新的产业链动态和观点，包括橡胶早评。及时性较强。欢迎参考。 注释： 后面几十页的数据，一般投资者可泛读，有兴趣深入研究的可以精读。 周报主要更新产业链数据，制表数据量大。有时候出差调研途中，周报会延迟或取消。 另外周报上的观点更新比较慢， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shoujia Technology, has successfully completed its second round of rights issue, injecting strong momentum for its development and raising a total of HKD 1.46 billion in net financing [1][3]. Group 1: Rights Issue Details - The rights issue was announced on May 13, with a ratio of "20 for 3" at a price of HKD 0.455 per share, allowing eligible shareholders to subscribe for up to approximately 353 million shares [1]. - Major shareholders, including Shougang, fully supported the rights issue, with a commitment to subscribe for 44.91% of their holdings, while strategic investor Redamancy.Z Holdings Limited subscribed for a total of HKD 45 million [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Response - The company has raised a total of HKD 2.77 billion through two rounds of rights issues, significantly enhancing its financial strength [3]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the company's stock price has increased by over 80%, and the average daily trading volume in the first half of 2025 has grown more than fourfold year-on-year, outperforming major indices like the Hang Seng Index [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The financing plan aims to bolster the company's capital scale and reflects strong market confidence in its future development, supporting strategic directions such as technology research and development, capacity expansion, and globalization [3]. - The company has established joint ventures to promote overseas factories, mergers, and high-end customer expansion, with export business accounting for nearly 40% of revenue over the past two years [4]. Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to distributing at least HKD 40 million in dividends annually over the next five years, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's growth [6]. Group 5: Future Vision - Positioned within the global high-end manufacturing transformation, the company aims to leverage capital, technology, and globalization to transition from a domestic leader to an international benchmark in high-end manufacturing [7].

【原料及现货】截至4月28日，杯胶52.05（+0.85)泰铢/千克，胶乳58.00（+0.30）泰铢/千克，云南胶水 收购价13800（+100）元/吨，海南新鲜胶乳14400（-100）元/吨，全乳胶上海市场14550（0）元/吨，青 岛保税区泰标1720（0）美元/吨，泰混14300（-100）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截至4月17日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为74.20%，环比-0.19个百分点， 同比-6.67个百分点。本周半钢胎样本企业产能利用率继续走弱，月初部分企业有促销政策释放，但对 整体销量带动有限，企业成品库存攀升，部分样本企业存适度降负调整，对整体产能利用率形成拖拽。 中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为67.44%，环比+0.23个百分点，同比-3.62个百分点。周内有少数样本 企业为补齐缺货花纹，排产略有提升，带动全钢胎样本企业产能利用率小幅走高。近期各企业多根据自 身库存情况灵活调整排产，整体样本企业产能利用率小幅波动为主。 山东轮胎样本企业成品库存环比上涨。截止到4月17日，半钢胎样本企业平均库存周转天数在45.40，环 比+1.08天，同比+16.46天；全钢胎样本企业平均库 ...