1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran having a significant impact on the energy market, leading to increased fuel costs in the shipping industry and potential disruptions to the supply chain [10][16]. - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture, with some positive signs in industrial profits but also challenges in areas such as manufacturing PMI and consumer spending [2][19]. - The financial market is experiencing volatility, with bond ETFs becoming a safe - haven due to rising risk aversion, and the stock and bond markets being affected by energy price increases and inflation expectations [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down from the previous month and the same period last year, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.5%, remaining the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - CPI in February 2026 was 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month and a significant improvement from the same period last year [1]. - PPI in February 2026 was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous year [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of 2026 increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous year [1]. - Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Imports in February 2026 increased by 13.8% year - on - year, also showing an upward trend [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of operating income improved significantly [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launched two trade barrier investigations against the US in response to the latter's 301 investigations [2]. - From April 22, QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [3]. - On March 27, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - The Fed Vice - Chair expects the US economy to expand at about 2% or slightly faster in 2026, with stable unemployment [4]. Metals - Since late March, international gold prices have experienced a "historic" shock, and after a sharp decline, there is a mixed reaction in the market [5]. - Since March, the domestic non - ferrous futures sector has shown a downward trend, especially copper futures, which have fallen by more than 8% this month [5]. - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the market [6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - A new rare earth - niobate mineral, Xianhuaite - (La), was discovered in the Bayan Obo deposit, which is of great value for the study of the deposit's formation [8]. - Due to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, some Asian countries are increasing coal production and use [9]. - Indonesia has no plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports on April 1 [9]. - Bauxite shipments increased by 16% year - on - year, but experts are cautious about the market outlook [9]. Energy and Chemicals - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant increase in the fuel cost of the global shipping industry, and the industry is facing pressure but also has an opportunity for energy transformation [10]. - Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 to July 31 to stabilize prices and ensure domestic supply [10]. - India has imposed windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports [10]. - Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline is operating at full capacity, but the Red Sea may become a new conflict front [11]. - The US allows Cuba to receive a large - scale oil shipment from Russia, breaking the oil blockade [11]. Agricultural Products - On March 29, the national pig market showed a widespread upward trend, but the increase was regional and phased [12]. - In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in 30 monitored provinces decreased by 28% year - on - year, reaching a new low since June 2018 [13]. - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the State Administration for Market Regulation have taken measures to address food safety issues exposed by the "3.15" Gala [13]. - China will implement zero - tariff measures for all African diplomatic countries starting from May 1, 2026 [13]. Financial News Open Market - This week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [14]. - On March 27, the central bank conducted 146.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan [14]. Key News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, with the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz and Iran increasing its counter - attacks [16]. - The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, and there are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US [17]. - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and corporate earnings announcements [18]. - The State Council emphasizes the development of the service industry and the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system [19]. - From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly, especially in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [19]. - The People's Bank of China requires the improvement of the financial risk prevention and resolution system [20]. - China's foreign exchange market shows strong resilience, and the RMB exchange rate remains stable [20]. - China and the EU agree to set up a trade and investment working group and continue dialogue on export control [20]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launches two trade barrier investigations against the US [21]. - Some banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, and bond ETFs have become a safe - haven for investors [21]. - Energy price increases have led to stagflation expectations, hitting the stock, bond, and gold markets, and investors are flocking to cash [22]. - Some companies have bond - related events, such as default and regulatory measures [22]. - Some companies' credit ratings have changed [23]. Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market is slightly bullish, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds declining, but the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract closed down [24]. - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [24]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [25]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term varieties also decreased [25][26]. - The winning bid rate of the Import - Export Bank's 3 - year fixed - rate bond was 1.5045% [26]. - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with non - US currencies showing mixed performance [28]. Research Report Highlights - Citic Securities suggests focusing on countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages, and recommends sticking to China's advantageous manufacturing industries [29][30]. - Citic Securities believes that the long - term demand for bank self - operated funds in exchange - traded corporate bonds and ABS products is unlikely to change fundamentally [30]. - Citic Securities expects the Strait of Hormuz's passing capacity to partially recover, which may drive up oil shipping prices and increase the profits of oil shipping companies in 2026 [30]. - Tianfeng Fixed - Income believes that there is no need to overly worry about large banks selling ultra - long - term bonds in March, and their buying power may increase in April [30]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit bond curve showed a bull - steep trend in March, and the end - of - quarter adjustment may be a good investment opportunity [30]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, focusing on serving new - quality productivity, building a "long - term investment" ecosystem, and cultivating Chinese - characteristic financial culture [33]. Today's Reminders - On March 30, 263 bonds will be listed, 60 bonds will be issued, 113 bonds will be paid, and 653 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [31][32].