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在建工程增速环比大幅下降,盈利底部渐显 | 投研报告
Core Insights - The basic chemical industry saw a slight increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1][2] - The overall gross profit margin for the industry decreased to 13.1%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.0%, also down 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The price index for chemical products showed a downward trend due to weak support from raw materials and overcapacity, with the CCPI dropping by 4.1% in the first half of 2025 [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q2 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of 588.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.0% [3] - Operating profit for Q2 2025 was 48.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 38.2 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [3] Sub-industry Performance - Among 19 sub-industries, significant revenue growth was observed in viscose, fluorine chemicals, and other chemical fibers, with growth rates exceeding 18% [3] - Conversely, sub-industries such as organic silicon, soda ash, and phosphoric chemicals experienced notable revenue declines [3] - In terms of net profit, 20 sub-industries reported growth, with pesticides and other materials showing increases exceeding 100% [3] Capital Expenditure Trends - The growth rate of construction projects in the basic chemical industry has been declining, with Q2 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% [5] - Fixed asset scale increased in Q2 2025, with total fixed assets reaching 14.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [5] Investment Recommendations - The industry is suggested to focus on sectors with stable demand and marginal supply changes, such as chlorinated sugar and pesticides [6] - Recommendations include companies like Jinhe Industrial and Yangnong Chemical for pesticides, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [6] - Attention is also drawn to sectors that may recover first, such as organic silicon and spandex [6]