2026 年度化工策略-新材料大有可为，"反内卷"下周期 进入右侧 20260107 摘要 锂电材料市场虽有回调，但需求仍可能超预期上涨。玻纤行业与化工行 业逻辑相似，2026 年业绩确定性较高，中国巨石粗纱供给增长低于需 求，中材科技锂电隔膜价格已现拐点。 化工行业资本开支和固定资产投资下降，显示供给端变化较少。化纤类 资产整体供需平衡表向好，氨纶、涤纶、有机硅等品种开工率高。推荐 中游核心资产龙头白马股，如万华化学和华鲁恒升。 期底部的中游核心资产，如万华化学和华鲁恒升等公司。价值主线则主要是资 源品。 锂电材料领域有哪些值得关注的细分市场？ Q&A 过去半个月化工行业的行情表现如何？其核心驱动力是什么？ 过去半个月，化工行业整体行情表现强劲，主要集中在中游核心资产。我们认 为其核心驱动力在于低盈利、低估值和低配置下机构的主动增配机会。此外， 这些中游核心资产相较于 2021 年有显著的产能扩张，即便不考虑乐观的价格 假设，其盈利也有很大的上升空间。 化工和新材料领域的年度策略有哪些核心主线？ 核心资产如万华化学和华鲁恒升，即使不考虑价格上涨，产能扩张也带 来盈利增长空间，中泰证券年度策略聚焦成长（AI、 ...

来源：环球网 近年来，无糖饮料与零卡食品悄然占据超市货架，成为越来越多人饮食的一部分。一边享受甜味，一边 控制热量摄入——这看似矛盾的体验，背后正是甜味剂在发挥作用。从饮料到零食，甚至日常口腔护理 产品，甜味剂已深入我们的生活，成为现代食品科技回应健康需求的重要载体。 甜味剂的进化史 甜味剂的诞生与应用，是食品科技提升生活品质的又一经典范例。中国中医科学院医学实验中心代金刚 研究员表示："它不仅为我们提供了新的甜味选项，也呼应了现代人对健康与口感多样化的双重追求。 这既是现代食品技术创新的成果，也是富足的生活方式走向多元的见证。" 如今，甜味剂已融入日常：无糖饮料、低糖酸奶、零卡零食，甚至牙膏中都有它的身影。它悄然改变着 我们的饮食结构，让"甜而不腻、健康无负担"逐渐成为新的生活态度和个人品味。 申港证券的研报《绽放味蕾之花-甜味剂行业深度报告》中指出，甜味剂并非"黑科技"，它们来源多 样：有的取自植物，如甜菊糖苷、罗汉果甜苷；有的通过发酵制成，如赤藓糖醇；也有人工合成的，如 三氯蔗糖、安赛蜜。它们的共同特点是：甜度高、热量低，轻松享受甜味。 代金刚进一步解释道："以三氯蔗糖为例，甜度约为蔗糖的600倍，几乎 ...

Core Insights - The appointment of Wang Qiang as the new chairman of Baolingbao follows the resignation of the previous chairman, Dai Sijue, highlighting significant leadership changes within the company amid industry challenges [1][4] - The frequent turnover of nearly 10 executives in Baolingbao this year reflects broader struggles within the functional sweetener industry, which is facing pressures to balance short-term performance with long-term strategic investments [1][5] Company Developments - Dai Sijue resigned for personal reasons, marking a shift in Baolingbao's management in response to competitive pressures in the market, particularly after a significant drop in sales and profitability in 2023 [4][9] - Wang Qiang, who has extensive experience in multinational corporations, was brought in to lead the company through a strategic transformation and enhance operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has seen a drastic decline in sales of its sugar alcohol products, with a 41.79% year-on-year drop in 2023 and a negative gross margin of -9.65% [4][9] Industry Context - The functional sweetener industry is experiencing intense competition, with many companies undergoing leadership changes as they adapt to market conditions [6][7] - The industry is characterized by a clear competitive hierarchy, with companies like Lian Biological and Jinhe Industrial leading the market, while Baolingbao and others are positioned in the mid-tier [7][8] - The shift towards natural and functional sweeteners is evident, with companies focusing on product differentiation and technological upgrades to meet health demands [8][9] Financial Performance - Baolingbao reported a revenue of 2.126 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.98%, and a net profit of 134 million yuan, up 32.58% [9] - The core products, including prebiotics, dietary fibers, and sugar-reducing sweeteners, accounted for 61.5% of the company's revenue, indicating a strategic focus on high-margin products [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential price increases for epoxy active diluents and organic silicon due to supply constraints and rising demand in various applications [2][3]. - A significant fire incident at a major producer of epoxy active diluents may lead to a temporary global shortage, prompting price hikes in the market [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the chemical sector, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and strategic industry collaborations to stabilize prices [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views of the Week - The epoxy active diluents market is expected to see sustained demand growth, particularly from the wind energy sector, with China's new wind power installations projected to reach 51.39 GW in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 99% [2]. - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a price rebound due to coordinated production cuts and price increases, with prices rising to 13,100 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2,000 yuan/ton increase since the announcement of price stabilization efforts [10][11]. 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index has shown a decline of 7.5% in the past week, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [24]. - Year-to-date, the chemical sector index has increased by 23.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.5% [24]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the production of epoxy active diluents and organic silicon, such as Kangda New Materials and Huangma Technology, which are expanding their production capacities [9]. - It also recommends monitoring companies like Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Co., which are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for phosphate and sulfur resources in the context of the energy transition [20][21].

Core Insights - The trend of young consumers moving away from "sugar-free" products is evident, with a noticeable slowdown in the growth of sugar-free tea sales and a decline in the popularity of sugar substitutes [5][12][14] Industry Overview - Sugar-free tea sales growth has significantly decreased, with sales growth rates from April to September 2023 being 3.9%, 7%, 19.9%, 19.5%, 8.5%, and 6.3%, all lower than the same periods in the previous year [2] - The average price of sugar-free tea has been on the rise, increasing from 5.1 yuan per piece in 2023 to 5.6 yuan per piece by 2025, indicating that despite higher prices, total sales growth is slowing [2] - The market is dominated by established brands like Nongfu Spring and Suntory, which together hold 87.3% market share as of September 2023, up 6.4% from the previous year [7] - The second-tier brands' market share has decreased from 11.3% to 7.4%, while the third-tier brands' share has shrunk from 5.1% to 3.4%, highlighting the intensifying head effect in the industry [7][9] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer preferences indicates that the younger generation is moving away from extreme health consciousness towards a more indulgent lifestyle, seeking comfort in sugary beverages [5][12] - The demand for sugar substitutes, particularly erythritol, has also faced challenges, with a reported oversupply in the market as of May 2023, where domestic production capacity reached 380,000 tons per year against a global demand of only 173,000 tons [2][14] Product Innovation - There has been a lack of new hit products in the sugar-free tea market, with established products like unsweetened oolong and jasmine tea dominating nearly 70% of the market share [9] - The innovation in the sugar-free tea sector has stagnated, with brands focusing on minor innovations around existing products rather than developing new ones, leading to potential homogenization and price competition [9][11] - In contrast, the sugary tea segment has seen a surge in new product launches, with sugary tea products outnumbering sugar-free tea products significantly in recent months [10] Supplier Challenges - Suppliers of sugar substitutes are experiencing significant operational pressures, with major companies like San Yuan Bio reporting a 7.54% decline in total revenue and a 16.8% drop in net profit for the first three quarters of the year [14][19] - The industry is facing a broader trend of declining demand, leading to increased competition and financial strain on suppliers, many of whom are exploring alternative products and markets to mitigate losses [17][19]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to see revenue and net profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight increase in profit margins in Q3 2025 [1] - The industry is experiencing stable demand, primarily driven by global supply, with specific focus on certain sub-industries for potential recovery [1] - The construction projects in progress are showing a significant decline in growth rate, while fixed asset scale is increasing year-on-year [4] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved a total revenue of 1.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, and a net profit of 114 billion yuan, up 7.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 582.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and a net profit of 38.3 billion yuan, up 19.6% year-on-year [3] - The overall net profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 7.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand remains stable, with global supply dominating in areas such as sucralose, pesticides, MDI, and amino acids [1] - Domestic demand is driving growth in sectors like refrigerants and fertilizers, helping to mitigate tariff impacts [1] - Sub-industries such as organic silicon and spandex are expected to recover first due to capacity being put into production [1] Group 3: Construction and Fixed Assets - The growth rate of construction projects in progress has significantly declined, with Q3 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% [4] - The total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 1.5 trillion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [4] - The fixed asset growth rate turned positive in Q4 2023, indicating a recovery trend in capital expenditure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The price fluctuations of sucralose are primarily influenced by changes in industry supply and demand, intensified market competition, and raw material costs [1] Company Response - The company has implemented measures to actively respond to market conditions, including strengthening supply chain collaboration, optimizing procurement and production plans, and advancing technological upgrades to reduce unit production costs [1] - The company emphasizes the importance of long-term cooperation with core customers to stabilize order demand [1] Industry Outlook - The company believes that its integrated supply chain advantages and ongoing cost control capabilities will enable it to effectively navigate market fluctuations and seize opportunities during industry recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the return of white sugar to beverage ingredient lists, driven by an upgrade in consumer health awareness and a demand for controllable taste experiences [4][27]. Group 1: Market Trends - The beverage market has seen a significant shift with the rise of sugar-free drinks, initiated by brands like Yuanqi Forest in 2018, which led to a decline in the presence of white sugar in ingredient lists [9][15]. - However, in the recent beverage season, traditional beverage companies have reintroduced white sugar in their products, indicating a change in consumer preferences towards a balance of taste and health [8][15]. - The global largest erythritol manufacturer, San Yuan Bio (301206.SZ), saw its erythritol revenue peak at 1.567 billion yuan in 2021, but it is projected to drop to 515 million yuan in 2024 due to an oversupply in the market [12][13]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are now more inclined to accept the presence of white sugar in beverages, as seen with brands like Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring launching new products that contain white sugar while promoting low-sugar options [15][17]. - The trend reflects a shift from an absolute avoidance of sugar to a preference for lower sugar content that still delivers enjoyable taste experiences [27][28]. - Brands are strategically reducing serving sizes to manage sugar intake while still offering products that satisfy taste preferences, indicating a nuanced approach to sugar consumption [18][22]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The sugar tea market, valued at nearly 90 billion yuan, is experiencing a competitive yet stable environment, with traditional beverage companies maintaining significant market shares [32][35]. - Major players like Master Kong, Uni-President, and Nongfu Spring dominate the market, collectively holding over 69% of the market share, with growth rates exceeding 5% [35][36]. - The introduction of new products in the sugar tea category continues to outpace sugar-free options, suggesting a sustained consumer interest in traditional flavors [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of white sugar in beverage ingredient lists, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences towards a balance of taste and health, as well as the evolving strategies of beverage companies in response to these trends [5][14][26]. Group 1: Market Trends - The beverage market has seen a significant shift with the rise of sugar-free drinks, initiated by brands like Yuanqi Forest in 2018, which led to a decline in the presence of white sugar in ingredient lists [8][12]. - However, in the recent beverage season, traditional beverage companies have reintroduced white sugar in their products, indicating a change in consumer perception towards health and taste [7][14]. - The market for sugary tea beverages is substantial, nearing 900 billion, and is experiencing a transition from rapid expansion to a focus on quality development [31][34]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly seeking a balance between health and taste, leading to a demand for products that offer lower sugar content without sacrificing flavor [18][26]. - The trend of "controlled indulgence" is emerging, where brands are marketing products with reduced sugar while still incorporating white sugar to enhance taste [16][20]. - Younger consumers are particularly interested in products that provide enjoyable flavors without the guilt associated with high sugar content [21][26]. Group 3: Company Strategies - Companies like Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring have launched new products featuring white sugar, emphasizing low-sugar and reduced-sugar branding to attract health-conscious consumers [14][16]. - The use of alternative sweeteners like erythritol and sucralose has been prevalent, but companies are now recognizing the unique taste benefits of white sugar, leading to its reintroduction in various products [10][20]. - Major brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President maintain significant market shares in the sugary tea segment, indicating their strong influence and the stability of this market despite health trends [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policies introduced in 2024 are expected to gradually show effects by curbing low-price competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a rebound in industrial product prices, positively impacting PPI and CPI [1][12] - The chemical industry is a key area influencing PPI, with its price fluctuations significantly affecting industrial inflation levels, making it a focal point for boosting inflation [2][17] - The profitability of chemical companies has been under pressure, with a notable decline in net profits in 2023, which strengthens the urgency for "anti-involution" measures [2][17] - The current supply-demand dynamics in the chemical industry are improving, with supply expansion nearing its end and demand gradually stabilizing, creating upward elasticity potential for the industry [2][20] Summary by Sections 1. The Effectiveness of "Anti-Involution" Policies - The "anti-involution" policies have been frequently introduced since 2024, aiming to create a systematic environment to combat disorderly competition [12] - As of October 2025, CPI has increased by 0.2% year-on-year, indicating a shift from negative to positive, while PPI has decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [1][15] 2. Importance of "Anti-Involution" in the Chemical Sector - The energy chemical sector accounts for approximately 25%-30% of PPI statistics, making its price changes crucial for industrial inflation [2][17] - Chemical companies are experiencing significant profit declines, with net profits down by 45.3% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a strong motivation for "anti-involution" [2][17] 3. Case Study of Polyester Filament - Polyester filament has been a pioneer in implementing industry self-discipline, with the first round of collaboration in 2024 leading to a price increase and improved profit margins [3][28] - The second round in 2025 adopted a more flexible pricing strategy, which has resulted in a more stable industry operation compared to the previous round [3][30] 4. Potential for Replicating Self-Discipline Models - Other sectors such as polyester bottle chips, PTA, and organic silicon are also exploring self-discipline to improve profitability, sharing common characteristics like high concentration and low profitability [9][35] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within these sectors that are likely to benefit from the self-discipline model [9][35]