化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及化肥、农 药、涂料等细分化工领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国化工行业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现和趋势。细分化工指数聚焦于化学工业领域，成分股主要为在各自子行业中具有代表性的企业，具 备较强的行业特色与市场代表性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 天风证券指出，基础化工行业需求稳定且全球供给主导，重点关注三氯蔗糖、农药、MDI、氨基酸等子 行业。内需驱动下，制冷剂、化肥、民爆、染料等领域有望对冲关税冲击。此外，有机硅、氨纶等子行 业因产能先投放，有望优先恢复。氢氟酸市场近期呈现明显上涨态势，供需格局延续紧平衡，厂家惜售 心态明显，市场看涨情绪浓厚。双氧水价格宽幅上行，北方地区装置停机集中导致供应端预期骤减，叠 加需求回暖，价格达到年度高位。七部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，旨在推动行业平稳运行与结构优化升级。 ...

（记者 王晓波） 金禾实业（002597.SZ）9月26日在投资者互动平台表示，二季度业绩波动主要受部分产品需求不旺、价 格下行以及市场库存消化等因素影响。根据市场信息，公司核心产品三氯蔗糖、安赛蜜、甲乙基麦芽酚 等产品销量自二季度末以来已出现企稳回暖的态势。公司凭借强大的产业链一体化优势，持续优化生产 成本，能在行业复苏时更快地兑现业绩弹性。公司管理层正全力以赴抓好生产经营，力争以更好的业绩 回报各位投资者。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问公司二季度营收下降主要是哪方面的产品营收下 降了？ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate, with measures aimed at addressing low-price disorderly competition in the chemical sector. This is part of a broader effort to enhance product quality and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [4][26] - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by recent policy initiatives aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the economy [12][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector underperformed the market this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.3% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.3%. The Shenwan Basic Chemical Industry Index also fell by 1.3%, ranking 20th among 31 industry sectors [15][20] Key News and Company Announcements - A significant article by Xi Jinping emphasizes the need to address low-price competition and enhance industry self-regulation. The government aims to expand domestic demand and implement effective investment strategies [4][26] Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price changes in chemical products, with phosphorite prices increasing by 17.5% and vitamin E prices decreasing by 11.4% during the week [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, with potential for valuation and profit recovery. Key companies to watch include Baofeng Energy, Wanhua Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [12][13] - Industries facing supply constraints are expected to see price elasticity, with specific attention on vitamins and refrigerants due to recent market dynamics [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows a year-on-year increase in net profit, with a significant rise in gross profit margin and a decrease in financial expenses [2][3]. - The company is making substantial progress in multiple key projects, particularly in electronic chemicals and new energy battery materials, which are expected to enhance long-term growth potential [10][11]. - The stability of major product prices is noted, providing support for the company's performance [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.444 billion, a decrease of 3.73% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 35.29% to 334 million [1]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.24%, an increase of 4.66 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 5.83% year-on-year, while investment cash flow improved significantly by 96.42% [3]. Project Development Summary - The company has achieved significant milestones in its key projects, including the successful trial production of an 80,000-ton electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project and the completion of regulatory procedures for a 71,000-ton wet electronic chemicals project [4][10]. - In the synthetic ammonia project, the company is progressing steadily with a production capacity of 101,800 tons of liquid ammonia and 66,400,000 Nm³ of hydrogen expected upon completion [10]. Future Earnings Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 56.83 billion, 65.44 billion, and 72.04 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.46 billion, 9.86 billion, and 11.73 billion [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the chemical industry is approaching the end of its current cycle, with a focus on demand recovery in 2024, particularly in infrastructure and exports, while the real estate cycle continues to decline [1][4] - From the demand side, infrastructure and export are expected to remain robust in 2024, with consumption showing resilience after two years of recovery [1][3] - On the supply side, global chemical capital growth is projected to turn negative in 2024, while domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline in growth, nearing a bottom by Q2 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The report outlines various industry indicators, including valuation metrics, price indices, supply-side metrics, import/export contributions, downstream industry performance, and global macroeconomic indicators [2] - Specific recommendations for investment opportunities include sectors such as refrigerants, phosphates, amino acids, and organic silicon, with suggested companies for each sector [4][5] - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing global trade dynamics, focusing on both internal production capabilities and external market opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the chemical industry [2]. Core Insights - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export remain robust, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The chemical industry is expected to see a phase of price and profit level rebound in Q2 2024, but overall performance will remain under pressure throughout the year [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying industries with marginal supply-demand changes, focusing on both domestic and global market dynamics [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators such as the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3]. - It highlights the importance of price indicators like PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI, along with supply-side metrics including capacity utilization and fixed asset investment [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report suggests that the domestic supply pressure remains significant, but the pace of capital expenditure is slowing down. Inventory levels are expected to enter a replenishment phase after a year of destocking [4]. - It identifies specific sectors to watch based on supply stability and demand logic, recommending companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyue Group for refrigerants, and Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Co. for phosphate and fertilizers [7]. Global Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global investment and trade patterns due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, leading to a reconfiguration of the global supply chain [7]. - It emphasizes the need for Chinese companies to adapt to these changes by focusing on both internal and external market opportunities [7]. Price Trends and Economic Performance - The report indicates that from January to August 2025, the CCPI has shown a decline of approximately 7.3% from the beginning of the year, with PPI also reflecting negative growth trends [15]. - It provides detailed insights into the price movements of various chemical products, indicating a complex landscape of price fluctuations and historical performance [20][22].

Core Insights - The basic chemical industry saw a slight increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1][2] - The overall gross profit margin for the industry decreased to 13.1%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.0%, also down 0.1 percentage points [1][2] - The price index for chemical products showed a downward trend due to weak support from raw materials and overcapacity, with the CCPI dropping by 4.1% in the first half of 2025 [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q2 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of 588.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.0% [3] - Operating profit for Q2 2025 was 48.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 38.2 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 2.3% quarter-on-quarter [3] Sub-industry Performance - Among 19 sub-industries, significant revenue growth was observed in viscose, fluorine chemicals, and other chemical fibers, with growth rates exceeding 18% [3] - Conversely, sub-industries such as organic silicon, soda ash, and phosphoric chemicals experienced notable revenue declines [3] - In terms of net profit, 20 sub-industries reported growth, with pesticides and other materials showing increases exceeding 100% [3] Capital Expenditure Trends - The growth rate of construction projects in the basic chemical industry has been declining, with Q2 2025 showing a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% [5] - Fixed asset scale increased in Q2 2025, with total fixed assets reaching 14.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [5] Investment Recommendations - The industry is suggested to focus on sectors with stable demand and marginal supply changes, such as chlorinated sugar and pesticides [6] - Recommendations include companies like Jinhe Industrial and Yangnong Chemical for pesticides, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [6] - Attention is also drawn to sectors that may recover first, such as organic silicon and spandex [6]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's second-quarter performance was affected by weak product demand, price declines, and market inventory digestion, leading to a significant drop in profits compared to the first quarter [9][10] - Core products such as sucralose, aspartame, and ethyl maltol have shown signs of recovery in sales since the end of the second quarter, indicating a cautious optimism for third-quarter performance [9][10] - The company aims to optimize production costs and leverage its integrated industrial chain advantages to enhance performance during industry recovery [2][9] Group 2: Project Developments - The second phase of the Dingyuan project is currently in the construction and ramp-up phase, with short-term pressure on overall efficiency due to weak commodity markets and new product trial costs [3][8] - The annual production capacity of 80,000 tons for electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide is expected to reach over 70% utilization by the end of the third quarter of 2025, with full capacity anticipated by early 2026 [4][5] - The company is focusing on the semiconductor sector, developing key materials and optimizing production processes to meet stringent industry requirements [3][5] Group 3: Market Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings in the sugar substitute market, closely monitoring trends and evaluating the market potential for new products like tagatose and allulose [10][14] - The company has established a strong customer base in the food and beverage industry, ensuring compliance with national food safety standards for all its products [13][15] - The company emphasizes a dual approach of internal development and external acquisitions to enhance its product portfolio and market presence [10][14] Group 4: Investor Relations - The company is committed to maintaining open communication with investors, addressing concerns, and ensuring transparency in its operations and future plans [18] - Employee stock ownership plans and increased holdings by social security funds reflect confidence in the company's long-term value and growth potential [12][18] - The company is actively managing its market value through various initiatives, focusing on core business areas to enhance intrinsic value and shareholder returns [18]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, the increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][10] - It suggests that the oil price is expected to remain at a medium to high level, with continued high prosperity in the oil and gas extraction sector, and emphasizes the importance of policy support for demand recovery in 2025 [10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of September 14, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 25.62, at the 99.50 percentile historically, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.24, at the 80.12 percentile [10] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 11.84, at the 84.48 percentile historically, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.17, at the 53.35 percentile [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following areas: 1. The impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries 2. The critical importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies 3. Undervalued industry leaders 4. Energy companies with stable dividend policies [2][10] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high prosperity of the oil and gas extraction sector and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [10] Key Stocks to Watch - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several technology and chemical companies such as Anji Technology, Yake Technology, and Jiangfeng Electronics [2][10] Price Trends - In the week of September 8-14, 36 chemical products saw price increases, 36 saw decreases, and 28 remained stable. The average price of 41% of tracked products increased month-on-month, while 47% decreased [9][32] - The report notes specific price movements, such as a decrease in urea prices by 1.69% compared to the previous week and a significant drop in trichlorosucrose prices by 8.11% [9][32]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxin Securities indicates that Jinhe Industrial achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 334 million yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.29% [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 92 million yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 21.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 61.85% [1] - The significant rebound in the price of sucralose has directly driven the gross profit margin of the company's food additive business to increase by 18.1 percentage points to 45.20%, which is the main reason for the high growth in the company's performance in the first half of the year [1] Industry Insights - The sweetener industry has entered a new phase of "anti-involution" with collaborative price stabilization after experiencing intense price wars in previous years [1] - As a leading player in the sugar substitute market, the company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the sweetener industry's prosperity, gradually releasing its performance [1] - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of the acesulfame industry in the future [1]