2025 年 11 月 23 日 基础化工 重视环氧活性稀释剂、有机硅等涨价机 遇 事件：1）据徽州发布及中华网，11 月 19 日，安徽新远科技有 限公司一车间起火，已造成一人死亡。2）据 SMM 硅世界，11 月 18 日，有机硅单体厂实控人会议在上海如期召开，主办单位为中 国氟硅有机材料工业协会，龙头企业悉数参加，参会企业总产能 占行业产能的 80%以上，会议内容关于联合减排以及挺价事宜。 供应不可抗力，环氧活性稀释剂价格弹性可期 特性优良应用广泛，需求有望持续增长。环氧活性稀释剂是一类含有 环氧基团的多功能化合物，具有黏度低、反应活性强、柔韧性好等优 良特性，且环境友好、品种多样、用途广泛。根据 QYResearch，2021 年全球环氧活性稀释剂总消费量约 22.8 万吨，其中复合材料（主要 用于风电叶片用环氧树脂基复合材料）、涂料、电子电器、胶粘剂领 域消费占比分别为 32%、16%、15%、12%。考虑到近年我国风电装机量 快速增长，根据国家能源局，2025H1 我国新增风电装机量 51.39GW， 同比+99%，接近翻番；且"十五五"期间我国风电年新增装机量不低 于 120GW，有望持续对上游 ...

Core Insights - The trend of young consumers moving away from "sugar-free" products is evident, with a noticeable slowdown in the growth of sugar-free tea sales and a decline in the popularity of sugar substitutes [5][12][14] Industry Overview - Sugar-free tea sales growth has significantly decreased, with sales growth rates from April to September 2023 being 3.9%, 7%, 19.9%, 19.5%, 8.5%, and 6.3%, all lower than the same periods in the previous year [2] - The average price of sugar-free tea has been on the rise, increasing from 5.1 yuan per piece in 2023 to 5.6 yuan per piece by 2025, indicating that despite higher prices, total sales growth is slowing [2] - The market is dominated by established brands like Nongfu Spring and Suntory, which together hold 87.3% market share as of September 2023, up 6.4% from the previous year [7] - The second-tier brands' market share has decreased from 11.3% to 7.4%, while the third-tier brands' share has shrunk from 5.1% to 3.4%, highlighting the intensifying head effect in the industry [7][9] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer preferences indicates that the younger generation is moving away from extreme health consciousness towards a more indulgent lifestyle, seeking comfort in sugary beverages [5][12] - The demand for sugar substitutes, particularly erythritol, has also faced challenges, with a reported oversupply in the market as of May 2023, where domestic production capacity reached 380,000 tons per year against a global demand of only 173,000 tons [2][14] Product Innovation - There has been a lack of new hit products in the sugar-free tea market, with established products like unsweetened oolong and jasmine tea dominating nearly 70% of the market share [9] - The innovation in the sugar-free tea sector has stagnated, with brands focusing on minor innovations around existing products rather than developing new ones, leading to potential homogenization and price competition [9][11] - In contrast, the sugary tea segment has seen a surge in new product launches, with sugary tea products outnumbering sugar-free tea products significantly in recent months [10] Supplier Challenges - Suppliers of sugar substitutes are experiencing significant operational pressures, with major companies like San Yuan Bio reporting a 7.54% decline in total revenue and a 16.8% drop in net profit for the first three quarters of the year [14][19] - The industry is facing a broader trend of declining demand, leading to increased competition and financial strain on suppliers, many of whom are exploring alternative products and markets to mitigate losses [17][19]

天风证券（601162）发布研报称，化工行业2025年前三季度营收及净利润同比增长，2025年第三季度营 收同比增长，利润率水平环比小幅提升，25Q3在建工程同比增速降幅环比进一步扩大，固定资产规模 同比增加。投资建议：周期相对底部或已至，关注供需边际变化行业。 (1)需求稳定，全球供给主导：三氯蔗糖、农药、MDI、氨基酸。(2)内需驱动，对冲关税冲击：制冷 剂、化肥(磷肥)、钾肥、复合肥、民爆、染料。(3)关注产能先投放，有望优先恢复的子行业：有机硅、 氨纶。 天风证券主要观点如下： 2025年前三季度营收及净利润同比增长 2025年前三季度，基础化工行业上市公司(根据申万2021一级分类基础化工行业以及轮胎行业(长江分类) 上市公司合计446家)共实现营业收入1.71万亿元，同比增长2.8%，实现营业利润1424亿元，同比增长 6.9%，实现归属上市公司股东的净利润1140亿元，同比增长7.5%。行业整体综合毛利率为13.0%，同比 持平;期间费用率为9.6%，同比-0.1pcts。行业整体净利润率为7.0%，同比提升0.3pcts。 2025年第三季度基础化工行业全体上市公司共实现营业收入5823亿元， ...

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 金禾实业11月19日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，三氯蔗糖价格波动主要受行业供 需变化、市场竞争加剧及原材料成本等因素影响。公司已通过相关措施积极应对：强化产业链协同，优 化采购与生产计划；推进技术升级，降低单位生产成本；加强与核心客户的长期合作，稳定订单需求。 公司相信凭借一体化产业链优势和持续的成本控制能力，公司能够有效应对市场波动，并在行业复苏时 抢占先机。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the return of white sugar to beverage ingredient lists, driven by an upgrade in consumer health awareness and a demand for controllable taste experiences [4][27]. Group 1: Market Trends - The beverage market has seen a significant shift with the rise of sugar-free drinks, initiated by brands like Yuanqi Forest in 2018, which led to a decline in the presence of white sugar in ingredient lists [9][15]. - However, in the recent beverage season, traditional beverage companies have reintroduced white sugar in their products, indicating a change in consumer preferences towards a balance of taste and health [8][15]. - The global largest erythritol manufacturer, San Yuan Bio (301206.SZ), saw its erythritol revenue peak at 1.567 billion yuan in 2021, but it is projected to drop to 515 million yuan in 2024 due to an oversupply in the market [12][13]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are now more inclined to accept the presence of white sugar in beverages, as seen with brands like Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring launching new products that contain white sugar while promoting low-sugar options [15][17]. - The trend reflects a shift from an absolute avoidance of sugar to a preference for lower sugar content that still delivers enjoyable taste experiences [27][28]. - Brands are strategically reducing serving sizes to manage sugar intake while still offering products that satisfy taste preferences, indicating a nuanced approach to sugar consumption [18][22]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The sugar tea market, valued at nearly 90 billion yuan, is experiencing a competitive yet stable environment, with traditional beverage companies maintaining significant market shares [32][35]. - Major players like Master Kong, Uni-President, and Nongfu Spring dominate the market, collectively holding over 69% of the market share, with growth rates exceeding 5% [35][36]. - The introduction of new products in the sugar tea category continues to outpace sugar-free options, suggesting a sustained consumer interest in traditional flavors [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of white sugar in beverage ingredient lists, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences towards a balance of taste and health, as well as the evolving strategies of beverage companies in response to these trends [5][14][26]. Group 1: Market Trends - The beverage market has seen a significant shift with the rise of sugar-free drinks, initiated by brands like Yuanqi Forest in 2018, which led to a decline in the presence of white sugar in ingredient lists [8][12]. - However, in the recent beverage season, traditional beverage companies have reintroduced white sugar in their products, indicating a change in consumer perception towards health and taste [7][14]. - The market for sugary tea beverages is substantial, nearing 900 billion, and is experiencing a transition from rapid expansion to a focus on quality development [31][34]. Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly seeking a balance between health and taste, leading to a demand for products that offer lower sugar content without sacrificing flavor [18][26]. - The trend of "controlled indulgence" is emerging, where brands are marketing products with reduced sugar while still incorporating white sugar to enhance taste [16][20]. - Younger consumers are particularly interested in products that provide enjoyable flavors without the guilt associated with high sugar content [21][26]. Group 3: Company Strategies - Companies like Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring have launched new products featuring white sugar, emphasizing low-sugar and reduced-sugar branding to attract health-conscious consumers [14][16]. - The use of alternative sweeteners like erythritol and sucralose has been prevalent, but companies are now recognizing the unique taste benefits of white sugar, leading to its reintroduction in various products [10][20]. - Major brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President maintain significant market shares in the sugary tea segment, indicating their strong influence and the stability of this market despite health trends [34][35].

2025 年 11 月 14 日 基础化工 行业自律，化工"反内卷"的新范式 提振通胀，"反内卷"或已逐步显效。 2024 年来"反内卷"相关政策高频出台，其通过遏制低价无序竞争、淘汰 落后产能等方式，有望推动工业品价格回升，进而对 PPI、CPI 形成直接或 间接的拉动。实际看，2025 年 10 月我国 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，实现由负转 正；PPI 同比下降 2.1%，降幅连续三个月收窄，物价数据均释放积极信号， 表明"反内卷"政策正逐步显效。但值得注意的是，从绝对值角度而言，目 前 CPI 距离 2%的通胀目标仍较远，PPI 连续 37 个月处于负值区间，"反内 卷"工作推进依旧任重道远。 为什么？化工"反内卷"的重要性。 重视化工"反内卷"，基于以下三点出发：1）能源化工是影响 PPI 的关键 领域之一。我国 PPI 统计中能源化工领域权重约 25%-30%，其价格变动对工 业品通胀水平存在显著影响，或是本轮提振通胀的重要发力点之一。2）企 业盈利磨底强化其"反内卷"的迫切性。2023 年受供给扩张和需求疲软等 因素影响，化工企业利润水平大幅收窄（归母净利润同比-45.3%），2024- 202 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant price increases in key additives such as VC and FEC, with VC rising nearly 40% since September and FEC increasing by 4.2% recently [1][3] - The effective production capacity for additives is currently at full capacity, leading to a tight supply-demand situation, which is expected to accelerate price increases in the near future [3][4] - The demand for EC, a key raw material for VC and FEC, is projected to increase significantly, with expectations of nearly 300,000 tons of demand driven by additives by 2026 [4][5] Group 2 - The price of 6F has reached a high of 130,000, with an average price of 120,000, indicating a 150% increase from the bottom [2] - The average price of VC has risen to 65,000, with a significant increase in demand from key players like Huasheng and Haike [2][3] - The iron lithium sector is expected to see a cost index released this week, which will serve as a basis for future price increases, with major companies exceeding production capacity [2][4] Group 3 - The phosphoric chemical sector is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with wet-process phosphoric acid production facing shutdowns, leading to price increases in yellow phosphorus [6][7] - The demand for phosphoric acid is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing need for lithium iron phosphate in energy storage and electric vehicles [10][18] - The overall chemical sector is anticipated to see a price increase due to a shift in market dynamics and the expectation of a positive PPI in 2026 [8][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemicals and oil and gas sectors [5]. Core Views - The overall price spread in the industry continues to bottom out, with a CCPI-raw material price spread of 2381 at the end of October, the lowest since 2012, influenced by reduced real estate demand [1][9]. - The industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments accelerate, driven by policies against "involution" and a gradual recovery in demand from consumption, infrastructure, and emerging technologies [2][4]. - The capital expenditure growth rate in the chemical industry has been declining since June 2025, indicating a potential turning point in supply-side adjustments and an expected upturn in industry prosperity in 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The domestic PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0, indicating a weakening traditional peak season due to reduced real estate demand, with the demand engine shifting towards consumer goods, infrastructure, and emerging technologies [2][13]. - Exports have become an important source of demand growth, with a cumulative export amount of 30,847 billion USD from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [18]. Supply Side - The fixed asset completion amount in the chemical raw materials and products industry from January to September 2025 has a cumulative year-on-year decline of 5.6%, indicating a negative growth trend in capital expenditure since June 2025 [21]. - The report suggests that the supply-side is nearing a self-adjustment phase, with the potential for improved profitability in bulk chemicals as supply-side adjustments accelerate [2][4]. Price Movements - Prices for certain chemical products have increased due to rising prices of non-ferrous metals and coal, while others have decreased due to seasonal demand weakness and falling oil prices [3][42]. - The report highlights specific products experiencing price increases, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and sulfur, while products like refrigerant R22 and butadiene have seen price declines [3][42]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend capabilities and cost advantages, such as China Petroleum and various chemical firms, as the industry is expected to recover in 2026 [4][41]. - Specific stocks recommended include Yuntianhua, Senqilin, and Juhua Co., among others, with a focus on those benefiting from supply-side improvements and demand recovery [6][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The chemical industry achieved a revenue of 1,947.86 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 115.78 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [2][18] - In Q1-Q3 2025, 50.0% of the 30 chemical sub-industries reported year-on-year growth, increasing to 56.7% in Q3 2025 [2][28] - The report highlights a gradual recovery in the industry, with capital expenditures declining by 16.9% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, indicating a slowdown in expansion cycles [2][18] Summary by Sections Overall Operations - The chemical industry experienced a slight revenue increase with a profit growth rate surpassing revenue growth [18] - The gross profit margin for the industry was 16.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [18] - The report notes a continued downturn in the domestic real estate market and a slow recovery in consumption [2][18] Key Sub-Industries - **Fluorochemical**: Revenue reached 32.53 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% and net profit up 155.6% [9][41] - **Phosphate Chemical**: Revenue was 82.38 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 8.0% to 7.55 billion yuan [49][50] - **Potash Fertilizer**: Revenue grew by 13.1% to 20.77 billion yuan, with net profit rising 57.6% to 9.44 billion yuan [9] - **Pesticides**: Revenue reached 124.65 billion yuan, up 5.6%, with net profit increasing by 131.2% to 6.38 billion yuan [9] - **Soda Ash**: Revenue fell by 15.7% to 30.16 billion yuan, with net profit down 71.5% to 0.99 billion yuan [9] - **Polyurethane**: Revenue decreased by 1.9% to 163.35 billion yuan, with net profit down 16.5% to 9.51 billion yuan [9] - **Titanium Dioxide**: Revenue was 32.92 billion yuan, down 4.2%, with net profit down 46.3% to 1.74 billion yuan [9] - **Polyester Filament**: Revenue decreased by 5.0% to 118.94 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 38.0% to 2.42 billion yuan [9] - **Additives**: Revenue grew by 3.8% to 89.06 billion yuan, with net profit up 30.0% to 12.35 billion yuan [9] - **Civil Explosives**: Revenue increased by 16.6% to 48.83 billion yuan, with net profit up 8.2% to 3.60 billion yuan [9] - **Tires**: Revenue grew by 10.7% to 119.98 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 17.3% to 9.89 billion yuan [9] - **Electronic Chemicals**: Revenue reached 52.97 billion yuan, up 13.1%, with net profit increasing by 22.4% to 6.05 billion yuan [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the chemical sector, highlighting cyclical recovery and potential growth in various sub-industries [10][39]