供需偏宽格局

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液化石油气呈现供需偏宽格局 短期内预计低位运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-19 07:08
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with expectations of oversupply in the oil market and stable demand for liquefied gas, leading to price pressures in the near term [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a slight decrease in liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts, down by 10 contracts to 12,878 contracts [1]. - Citigroup predicts that Russian natural gas exports through Ukraine to Europe are likely to resume by the end of 2025, with a forecast for TTF natural gas prices in 2026 set at €29 per megawatt-hour, below market expectations [1]. - The Daqing oilfield gas storage capacity has surpassed 3 billion cubic meters annually, enhancing energy security in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures suggests that strong chemical demand and winter replenishment needs will support spot prices, with the current minimum price for residential gas at ¥4,350 per ton [2]. - The PG2510-PG2511 month spread is at a low historical level, indicating a shift in focus to PG2510 as a new warehouse receipt cycle begins [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - OPEC and its allied countries, including Russia, are expected to increase supply, leading to a projected oversupply of 890,000 barrels by June next year [3]. - Despite a peak in summer travel in the U.S., institutions remain cautious about future demand prospects [3]. - Domestic refinery supply and import volumes are anticipated to rise, while PDH profits are recovering from low levels, indicating stable overall demand for liquefied gas [3].