外盘偏强运行，市场短期支撑仍存 液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-28 市场分析 1、\t11月27日地区价格：山东市场，4350-4470；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4170-4400； 沿江市场，4450-4840；西北市场，4350-4400；华南市场，4250-4400。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年12月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷580美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，丁烷565美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4519元/吨，涨61元/吨，丁烷4403元/吨，涨46元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷574美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷559美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4473元/吨，涨77元/吨，丁烷4356元/吨，涨62元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 外盘延续震荡偏强态势，昨日丙烷到岸价格进一步上涨，对国内现货与盘面存在一定支撑。现货方面，昨日国内 现货价格涨跌互现。其中，山东民用液化气主流成交价格出现下跌，业者心态偏谨慎，但压力有限。就基本面来 看，近期随着国内 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures market may maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. For the unilateral strategy, it is neutral, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. There are no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On November 26, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4500 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4000 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4300 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton, South China market 4250 - 4380 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 572 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, stable. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 564 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted prices of propane in East and South China increased by 21 and 22 yuan/ton respectively, while butane decreased by 2 yuan/ton in both regions [1]. - The external market continued to be in a volatile and strong state, and the prices were basically stable yesterday. High discounts increased the CIF cost, which supported the domestic spot and futures markets. Domestic spot prices generally rose steadily. Shandong's civil gas prices increased, while the mainstream transaction prices of civil gas and ether - after carbon four in East China remained stable. The market supply pressure was not large, and market participants were positive. Terminal demand was stable, and downstream users' purchasing sentiment was rational and stable [1]. - Recently, the LPG market showed a marginal tightening trend due to the decline in domestic refinery output and arrival volume, but the sustainability may be limited. Downstream chemical demand was suppressed by rising costs. On the other hand, Middle - East supply may increase after refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Daily Changes (Wednesday)**: In the civil gas market, prices in East China remained at 4310 (+0), in Shandong increased to 4460 (+30), and in South China stayed at 4330 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 29 (-81) and a 01 - 02 month - spread of 87 (+10). FEI was 516.6 (+12.1) and CP was 492.16 (+5.66) dollars per ton [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG futures price declined. The basis was - 43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 month - spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices decreased. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil gas price difference narrowed. There were 4561 (-54) warehouse receipts. Off - exchange paper prices dropped, the month - spread strengthened, and the North Asian - North American oil - gas price ratio changed slightly. The domestic - foreign PG - CP was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). The East China arrival, North American, and AFEI offshore discounts remained flat, while the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 dollars (+13). Freight rates decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to - 55 (+11). The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but was still poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. The arrival volume increased, the external release decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories increased. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan was expected to restart next week [1]. 2. Core View - The domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but there is an expected high arrival volume in December. The Middle East supply is tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil price conditions need to be monitored [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] Core View - The external market remains firm, and the short - term contradictions in the market are limited. The high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have shown a marginal tightening trend, but the sustainability is limited. The downstream chemical demand is suppressed by cost increases, and the supply in the Middle East and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia are expected to increase. In the medium term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Analysis - On November 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4330 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4010 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market, 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 569 dollars/ton and 559 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4437 yuan/ton for propane (down 1 yuan/ton) and 4359 yuan/ton for butane (down 1 yuan/ton). In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 561 dollars/ton and 551 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4374 yuan/ton for propane (down 2 yuan/ton) and 4296 yuan/ton for butane (down 2 yuan/ton) [1] - The external market continues to fluctuate strongly, and the high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have tightened marginally, but the sustainability is limited due to the suppression of downstream chemical demand by cost increases. The supply in the Middle East may increase after the refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern of LPG has not changed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]

免责声明: LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/26 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华 南 丙烷CIF日本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2025/11/19 4345 4325 4370 565 508 491 4590 7040 -280 -49 2025/11/20 4350 4325 4360 562 509 486 4570 7040 -253 -47 2025/11/21 4400 4315 4340 558 502 485 4530 7040 -165 68 2025/11/24 4405 4305 4400 560 498 489 4440 7080 -174 200 2025/11/25 4330 4310 4430 - 484 - 4470 7100 - 100 日度变化 -75 5 30 - -14 - 30 20 - -100 日度变化 周二，民用气方面，华东4310（-5），山东4430（+30），华南4330（-75）。醚后碳四4470（+70）。最低交割地为华东，基差-2 6（-53），01-0 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 25 日 LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,278 | -1.25% | 4,299 | 0.49% | | | PG2601 | 4,205 | -1.57% | 4,232 | 0.64% | | | PL2601 | 5,917 | 1.21% | 5,917 | 0.00% | | | PL2602 | 5,890 | 1.50% | 5,876 | -0.24% | | | PL2603 | 5,881 | 1.27% | 5,854 | -0.46% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2512 | 24,771 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The external market of LPG is running strongly, but there are still resistances in the market. The LPG market's upward driving force remains insufficient, and the futures market may maintain a volatile operation in the short term [1] 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On November 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4440; Northeast market, 4010 - 4150; North China market, 4250 - 4390; East China market, 4170 - 4350; Yangtze River market, 4420 - 4760; Northwest market, 4300 - 4350; South China market, 4300 - 4450 [1] - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 569 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. Converted into RMB, propane was 4438 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, and butane was 4360 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 561 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. Converted into RMB, propane was 4376 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, and butane was 4298 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [1][3] - The external market continued the volatile rebound trend. The high discount boosted the CIF cost, and the domestic LPG spot and futures market received some support. With the decline in the commercial volume of domestic refineries and the decrease in arrivals, the LPG fundamentals showed a marginal tightening trend, but the sustainability was questionable. Last week, arrivals and port inventories rebounded again. In the medium term, the overall supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Overseas supplies are relatively abundant, and the downstream chemical demand is restricted by the lack of profit growth momentum, which will limit the upward space of the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market declined with a weakening basis and 01 - 02 spread. Domestic civil gas prices decreased, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The propane - civil gas spread narrowed. Warehouse receipts decreased. The overseas paper - based prices dropped, but the spread strengthened. The PG - CP and PG - FEI spreads changed slightly. The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed. Profits of Shandong PDH to propylene and alkylation units improved slightly, while MTBE production profits fluctuated and export profits remained good. There was an increase in arrivals, a decrease in external sales, and inventory accumulation at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate decreased, and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week. Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, civil demand is increasing, but there are expected to be many arrivals in December. The Middle East supply is tight, and the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see before the CP official price announcement. Attention should also be paid to weather and oil price conditions [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil gas, prices were 4305 (-10) in East China, 4400 (+60) in Shandong, and 4405 (+5) in South China. The price of ether - after carbon four was 4400 (-90). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 6 (+23), and the 01 - 02 spread was 98 (-10). FEI was 501.5 (+1.5) and CP was 489.5 (+7.5) dollars/ton [1] 2. Weekly Views - The PG futures price declined. The basis was - 43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil gas prices fell. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil gas spread narrowed. There were 4561 warehouse receipts (-54). Overseas paper - based prices dropped, and the spread strengthened. The gas - oil ratio between North Asia and North America changed little. The PG - CP spread was 126 (-2), and the PG - FEI spread was 114 (+3). The East China arrival, North America, and AFEI offshore discounts were flat, while the Middle East supply was tight with a discount of 35 dollars (+13). The freight rate decreased slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 55 (+11). The profit of Shandong PDH to propylene improved slightly, the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor, and the MTBE production profit fluctuated with good export profits. Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, and inventory accumulated at factories and ports. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan's PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【液化石油气（LPG）投资周报】 油弱气强格局依旧，PG盘面整理运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 能化产品收盘价格监控 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 0875 . | -0 04% . | 0 07% . | -0 07% . | -1 45% . | ...