Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term industrial silicon futures are likely to maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern, with support around 8100 yuan/ton from the cost side. Three factors need to be focused on: the resumption progress of enterprises in major production areas, changes in downstream demand, and cost - side fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of industrial silicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange oscillated weakly. The opening price was 8700 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 8675 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8685 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 104,089 lots, and the open interest was 236,662 lots, a decrease of 1623 lots compared with the previous trading day [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On March 16, 2026, the basis of the main contract of industrial silicon futures was 525 yuan. The spot price was higher than the futures price, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [2]. 3.3 Main Influencing Factors - The current market is in a game stage between cost support and supply - demand suppression. On the cost side, the increase in the large - grid electricity price in Xinjiang raises the purchased electricity cost of leading enterprises, providing bottom - line support for prices. On the supply side, the expectation of supply recovery in March is strengthening. After the electricity price reduction in Sichuan, enterprises have the possibility of increasing production, and there is still room for overall supply growth. On the demand side, the organic silicon industry has reached a consensus that the operating rate from March to May will not exceed 65%, resulting in limited incremental demand for industrial silicon. Although the demand for polysilicon and aluminum alloy has marginal recovery, the overall elasticity is insufficient [2]. 3.4 Short - term Outlook - The short - term industrial silicon futures are likely to maintain a range - bound oscillation pattern, with support around 8100 yuan/ton from the cost side. Three factors need to be focused on: the resumption progress of enterprises in major production areas, especially the willingness of large factories in Xinjiang to start production and the change in the number of furnace starts in the southwest region; changes in downstream demand, including the implementation of production cuts by organic silicon enterprises, the production schedule of polysilicon, and the change in the operating rate of aluminum alloy; cost - side fluctuations, such as the electricity price trends in Xinjiang and Sichuan and the price changes of raw materials like petroleum coke [2].