Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The current fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the contradiction in the ore end and cost support limit the downward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Stainless steel prices are under pressure from marginal inventory accumulation, but the raw material end contradiction restricts the downward space, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon shows a weakly oscillating pattern with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand. Polysilicon has weak fundamentals and is affected by concentrated cancellation. The market is expected to pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [29][30][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side news causes frequent disturbances. Although the market focuses on the approval progress of Zimbabwe, the increase in raw material shipments from Australia and Chile in April will supplement the raw materials. The downstream replenishment willingness is not strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: International oil prices dominate the palm oil market. The post - Eid al - Fitr origin structure has weakened, and the April production recovery degree will be a key factor for the annual market. The soybean oil market is affected by the US bio - fuel blending policy, and the price center is expected to return to the middle [84][85][88]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating and waiting for new drivers. Soybean has no driving force for the time being and the disk is oscillating. The market should pay attention to the April USDA supply and demand report, Sino - US trade progress, and South American weather [99][105]. - **Corn**: The corn market should focus on the inventory at the northern ports. The spot price has declined, and the futures price is affected by policy auction rumors and other factors. The price is expected to have a callback trend, but it is still a thinking of buying on dips [127][128][131]. - **Sugar**: Keep an eye on crude oil and maintain an oscillating and bullish thinking in the long term. The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market is affected by import rhythm and cost [148][150][173]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend, and domestic cotton futures will maintain an oscillating trend. The market should focus on the new - year planting and relevant policies [175][176][190]. - **Hogs**: The de - stocking of hogs is less than expected, and the bottom has not appeared. The spot price is expected to continue to decline in April, and the LH2605 contract of futures should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The peanut price has declined, and the futures are recommended to go long on dips. The market should pay attention to the digestion progress of the remaining goods in Henan in April and the impact of temperature on peanut indicators [205][206]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel is supported by marginal cost but limited by weak fundamentals. Stainless steel is under pressure from inventory accumulation and supported by raw material contradictions [5][6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1,815 tons to 87,892 tons on April 3, and the LME inventory decreased by 78 tons to 281,496 tons. The inventory of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain decreased [7][8]. - **Market News**: There are many news about nickel mines in Indonesia, including the adjustment of the benchmark price, the restart of mines in other regions, and the change of production quotas [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices both declined. Industrial silicon is affected by downstream production cuts, and polysilicon is affected by weak demand and concentrated cancellation [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon supply has partial复产, and demand has weakened. Polysilicon supply has decreased in the short term, and demand is also weak [30][31][33]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis weakened [61]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased, and demand has downstream replenishment. The inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks [62][63][64]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the supply - side news [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View**: Palm oil was affected by geopolitical situation and B50 news, and soybean oil was affected by crude oil and other factors [84]. - **This Week's View**: Palm oil is still dominated by energy prices, and the April production recovery is crucial. Soybean oil is affected by the US bio - fuel policy and South American weather [85][88]. - **Data**: The trading volume and price of palm oil and soybean oil futures have changed, and the inventory and export data of palm oil are also different [91]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean price oscillated, and the domestic soybean meal price was weak, while the soybean price was sideways [99][100]. - **Fundamentals**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased, the Brazilian soybean import cost decreased, and the US soybean planting area was slightly higher than expected [100]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and soybean are expected to oscillate, and pay attention to relevant reports and news [105]. Corn - **Market Review**: The corn spot price declined, and the futures price was affected by policy and inventory [127][128]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn declined, wheat price decreased, and corn starch inventory increased. Pay attention to the inventory at the northern ports [128][129][131]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international sugar price declined, and the domestic sugar price increased slightly. The net long position of funds increased [148][149]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market should pay attention to import policies [150][173]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton reached a new high this year, and domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market should focus on new - year planting [175][176]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the export data is good. The domestic cotton price is slightly lower, and the downstream demand is weak [179][180][184]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: The hog spot price was weak, and the futures price declined. The supply increased, and the demand was mainly for inventory [193]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The hog price is expected to continue to decline, and the LH2605 contract should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The peanut spot price declined, and the futures price also decreased. The supply has certain pressure, and the demand is different for different types of peanuts [205]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills and the impact of temperature [206].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, with no change from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week. Demand remained low. The polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, at a high level. The silicon wafer production was at a loss, while the battery cell production was profitable, and the component production was also profitable. The silicone inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of 2,430 yuan/ton, an overall operating rate of 68.6%, unchanged from the previous week and higher than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 44,900 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 2,487 yuan/ton. The A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi had a freight and profit of 623.12 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate was 59.5%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 670 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease from the previous week. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,390 - 8,570 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for March was predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.38GW, a 3.39% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 269,800 tons, a 2.42% decrease from the previous week. The silicon wafer production was at a loss. The production schedule for March was 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase from the previous month. In February, the battery cell production was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase from the previous week, and the production was profitable. The production schedule for March was 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase from the previous month. In February, the component production was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for March was 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory was 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase from the previous month. The component production was profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income was - 810 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 30, the price of N - type dense material was 38,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 2,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase, while the demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to increase in the short - term and decline in the medium - term. Overall demand showed a continuous decline. Cost support remained stable. The polysilicon 2605 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,475 - 37,625 [8]. Overall Logic - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production [11]. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint [3][5][7] - Industrial silicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzed from supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation, with a view on its future price range [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview [14] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of decline compared to the previous values. Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. Inventory data showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. Production and operating rate data also showed different changes [15]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview [16] - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed various degrees of increase or remained unchanged compared to the previous values. Prices and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc. showed different trends, and inventory data also changed [16]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends [18] - Showed the historical trends of the main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon [19]. 5. Industrial Silicon Inventory [21] - Presented the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the registered warrant volume [22][23]. 6. Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends [25] - Showed the historical trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of sample enterprises [26][27][28]. 7. Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends [30] - Presented the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [31]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends [33] - Showed the historical cost trends of 421 and 553 grades of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, as well as the cost differences between them [34][35]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [37] - Analyzed the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, and actual consumption [38]. 10. Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [40] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [41]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - DMC Price and Production Trends [43] - Showed the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly production, and price [44]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Downstream Price Trends [45] - Presented the historical price trends of 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [46][47][48]. 13. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Silicone - Import - Export and Inventory Trends [49] - Showed the historical trends of DMC monthly import, export, and inventory [50][52]. 14. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation [54] - Presented the historical trends of scrap aluminum recycling, scrap aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, Chinese unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [55]. 15. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends [57] - Showed the historical trends of monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [58]. 16. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels) [60] - Presented the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [61]. 17. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends [64] - Showed the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [65]. 18. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet [67] - Analyzed the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from February 2025 to February 2026, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [68]. 19. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends [70] - Presented the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - silicon wafers [71]. 20. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends [73] - Showed the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [74]. 21. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends [76] - Presented the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component production, and component export [77]. 22. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends [79] - Showed the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [80]. 23. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm) [82] - Showed the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. 24. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends [83] - Presented the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, distributed photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [84]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week, and the demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The industry is expected to be bearish, and the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply last week was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week, and the March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease week - on - week. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 27, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 525 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase week - on - week; the sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease week - on - week; the main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule increased, remaining at a low level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8535 - 8715 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase week - on - week. The March production schedule is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase month - on - month [9]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows different trends in the short and medium - term, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 27, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,070 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease week - on - week, at a high level in the same period of history, which is bearish [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to increase. The demand shows a short - term increase and a medium - term callback. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,630 - 36,730 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase compared with the previous values. The spot prices of different types of silicon remained mostly unchanged. The inventory showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable. The inventory decreased, and the export volume increased [16]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: The report presents the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon over a long - term period [18]. - Industrial silicon inventory: It shows the inventory trends of different regions and types of industrial silicon over a long - term period, including delivery warehouses and ports, and sample enterprises [21]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: It shows the trends of weekly production, monthly production by specification, and the opening rate of sample enterprises in different regions over a long - term period [25]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends: It shows the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas over a long - term period [30]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: It shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan over a long - term period [33]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables: It shows the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [37][40]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products of organic silicon over a long - term period [43]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends of aluminum alloy over a long - term period [55]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: It shows the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components over a long - term period [65]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price, import - export, and production trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, and high - purity quartz sand over a long - term period [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component cost - profit trends: It shows the cost and profit trends of components such as silicon material, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [83]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations over a long - term period [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are in a sideways consolidation on the weekly line. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - Polysilicon futures are in a downward channel on the weekly line, and the price is close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [27][29]. - Lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range volatile operation. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 200,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The industrial silicon futures are in a sideways consolidation on the weekly line. The spot price of industrial silicon was stable last week. As of March 27, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton. The main force has a relatively obvious bearish attitude [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The industrial silicon futures are in an oscillating operation. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [11][13][16]. 3.2 Polysilicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The polysilicon futures are in a downward channel on the weekly line. The spot price of polysilicon decreased last week. As of March 27, the price of polysilicon (compact material) was 39 yuan/kg, and the price of polysilicon (re - feed material) was 41 yuan/kg. The main force has no obvious long or short bias [27][29]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon futures are in a downward channel, and the price is close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [32][33][38]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range volatile operation. The spot price of lithium carbonate increased slightly last week. As of March 27, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 154,250 yuan/ton, and the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 157,350 yuan/ton. The main force shows a strong bearish sentiment [44][45]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures have a relatively large fluctuation range. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 200,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [48][49][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, this week's 05 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 8,550 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 8,625 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.88%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase but remain at a low level, while demand recovery will also be at a low level, and cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, this week's 05 contract showed a downward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 38,180 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 35,680 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6.54%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to increase, and the overall demand will show a continuous decline. Cost support will remain stable. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 40,760 tons, a 1.17% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 44.46%, a 6.44 - percentage - point increase from last month's 38.02% [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory was 332,000 tons, higher than the historical average. In the organic silicon sector, the inventory was 58,500 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production profit was 2,430 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 44,900 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase. The predicted production schedule for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to last month [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.38 GW, a 3.39% decrease. The battery cell output in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% decrease. The component output in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% decrease. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state, while the production of battery cells and components is in a profitable state [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 310 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease, at a historical high [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The document shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [13][14]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [16][17][18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions [19][20][22]. - **Cost**: It includes the historical trends of main - producing area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices, as well as the cost trends of 421/553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [24][25][28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [31][32][35]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [37][38][40]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, including waste aluminum recycling, import of aluminum crushed materials, and the production and sales of automobiles and aluminum alloy wheels [49][50][55]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][60][63]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81][82]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 05 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on weekly technical indicator signals, different sectors of commodity and financial futures show various trends. In the commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black and shipping, energy, chemical, and agricultural product sectors have different signals of rising, falling, or oscillation. In the financial futures, stock index futures mostly show bearish signals, while treasury bond futures show an oscillatory trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - Precious metals: Gold shows a bearish signal, and silver shows an oscillatory signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate show bullish signals, aluminum shows a bearish signal, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a weekly "umbrella line" but no reversal, a shrinking MACD red column, and a narrowing Bollinger Band [9][10][13] 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Hot - rolled coil, coking coal, and manganese silicon show bullish signals, and the rest, including European container shipping, show oscillatory signals. For example, rebar is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a flat weekly line, a MACD death - cross above the zero - axis on the daily line, and the price touching the MA60 [18][19][24] 3.3能源及化工板块 - In the energy sector, crude oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, while fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show oscillatory signals. In the chemical sector, soda ash, 20 - rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. show bullish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, pulp is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bearish monthly line, weakening upward momentum on the weekly line, and a MACD running below the zero - axis on the daily line [31][32][35] 3.4农产品板块 - Soybean oil, sugar, soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, and red dates show bullish signals, soybean No. 1, rapeseed meal, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest show oscillatory signals. For example, corn is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a bullish weekly line but a shrinking red column and a MACD green column expanding on the daily line [40][41][45] 3.5股指期货板块 - Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 stock index futures all show bearish signals. For example, IC CSI 500 futures and IF SSE 300 futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [50][51][53] 3.6国债期货板块 - 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all show oscillatory signals. For example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term [62][63][66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The increase in production due to the resumption of production in March on the supply side will compete with the recovery of the silicone开工率 on the demand side, and the inventory level will fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side provides certain support, and the cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity serves as a reference for the current price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption of work by large factories in April and the digestion of polysilicon inventory on the demand for industrial silicon [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review On March 26, 2026, the opening price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures was 8,785 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,735 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8,790 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase/decrease of 0.58%. The trading volume was 140,735 lots, the open interest was 229,643 lots, and the trading volume was 6.14658 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market The industrial silicon spot market was generally stable, with prices remaining stable in many places and rising in some areas. In East China, the quoted price of oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,150 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,700 yuan/ton. In Xinjiang, the average price of industrial silicon (441) on March 19 was 8,850 yuan/ton, with a price range of 8,600 - 9,100 yuan/ton. As of March 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, and the social inventory continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. On the supply side, some production capacities resumed in March, and it is expected that the average daily output of industrial silicon in March will increase by about 13% month-on-month, and the inventory in March is expected to remain flat or experience a slight reduction [2]. 3.3 Main Influencing Factors - **Cost Factor**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates with the price of raw coal. The low cash cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity is around 8,300 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the cash cost range of silicon plants with self - generated electricity is relatively lower [2]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, according to Longzhong data, the national industrial silicon output last week was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 200 tons. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream silicone has begun to recover, and the price is relatively stable. The export volume of silicone from January to February increased significantly year - on - year [3]. - **Related Market Impact**: The polysilicon market has a high inventory, a low operating rate, and the spot price continues to decline. The futures market has fallen into the cash cost range of large factories. The cumulative exports of photovoltaic modules, battery cells, and polysilicon from January to February increased year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Short - term Outlook The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The increase in production due to the resumption of production in March on the supply side will compete with the recovery of the silicone开工率 on the demand side, and the inventory level will fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side provides certain support, and the cost range of silicon plants with purchased electricity serves as a reference for the current price. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption of work by large factories in April and the digestion of polysilicon inventory on the demand for industrial silicon [4].