成文日期：20251009 研究品种:工业硅 报告周期: 日报 研究员：曹柏泉（从业资格号：F03122015；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019820) 工业硅期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251009），期货品种工业硅 si2511 合约冲高回落, 收阴线。今日成交量大幅减少。全日成交量为 210531 手，持仓量 为 176563 手。 工业硅 si2511 分时图 数据来源：文华财经 1.2 品种价格 工业硅期货 12 个合约，品种持仓量 407790 手，较上一交易日 增加 8057 手，其中活跃合约 si2511 持仓量增加 2165 手。 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 2.2 技术分析 工业硅期货今日冲高回落，主力 2511 合约形成有较长上下影响 的十字星形态。今日成交量大幅减少，持仓量小幅增加，多空双方 继续观望。从日线图看，期价在 50 日均线下方形成有较长上下影响 的十字星形态，预计后市将偏弱震荡运行。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 3万吨 ， | 环比有所增加1 . | 09% 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 6万吨 环比增长7 ， | 50% . . | 需求有所抬升 | . | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为22 . | 6万吨 ， | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 ， | 组件盈利 ...

2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲击50新高 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：小幅反弹 | 7 | | 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 9 | | 锡：加速上行 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，警惕消息扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场消息再次发酵，关注实际落地 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：市场观望气氛浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复 ...

8月份，国内期货行业经营在复杂多变的经济环境中展现出较强韧性，整体呈现客户基础扩容、业务结 构优化、绿色转型加速的积极态势。期货日报记者采访了解到，随着实体经济风险管理需求释放与金融 科技深度赋能，期货行业正在通过多元化布局构建更具韧性与竞争力的生态格局。 中期协日前公布的数据显示，截至2025年8月末，全国150家期货公司8月代理交易额65.23万亿元，代理 交易量8.95亿手，虽较7月有所回落，但同比仍保持显著增长。从经营情况看，8月150家期货公司营业 收入和净利润分别达38.61亿元和12.34亿元，虽环比均略有下滑，但同比均录得增长。 "8月期货公司营收下降与当月市场交易量减少直接相关，主要是受7月市场活跃度处于阶段性高位的影 响，如纯碱、玻璃等期货品种出现单边行情。而进入8月后，商品价格波动收窄，导致部分投机资金离 场。"中州期货副总经理刘建芝表示，不过，8月新能源、新材料等期货品种成为新的增长点，为市场也 注入了新动能。 从同比角度分析，浙商期货副总经理华俊认为，今年以来期货市场活跃度持续提升，全市场成交量和成 交额同比显著增长，为期货公司带来了直接的营收和利润增长。 刘建芝认为，期货公司客户结 ...

经营稳健向好，客户机构化趋势加速 中期协日前公布的数据显示，截至2025年8月末，全国150家期货公司8月代理交易额65.23万亿元，代理 交易量8.95亿手，虽较7月有所回落，但同比仍保持显著增长。从经营情况看，8月150家期货公司营业 收入和净利润分别达38.61亿元和12.34亿元，虽环比均略有下滑，但同比均录得增长。 8月份，国内期货行业经营在复杂多变的经济环境中展现出较强韧性，整体呈现客户基础扩容、业务结 构优化、绿色转型加速的积极态势。期货日报记者采访了解到，随着实体经济风险管理需求释放与金融 科技深度赋能，期货行业正在通过多元化布局构建更具韧性与竞争力的生态格局。 "8月期货公司营收下降与当月市场交易量减少直接相关，主要是受7月市场活跃度处于阶段性高位的影 响，如纯碱、玻璃等期货品种出现单边行情。而进入8月后，商品价格波动收窄，导致部分投机资金离 场。"中州期货副总经理刘建芝表示，不过，8月新能源、新材料等期货品种成为新的增长点，为市场也 注入了新动能。 从同比角度分析，浙商期货副总经理华俊认为，今年以来期货市场活跃度持续提升，全市场成交量和成 交额同比显著增长，为期货公司带来了直接的营收和利润 ...

十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国政府停摆、法国总理上任不足一月辞职、日本政治不确定性共同推高了避险情 | | ★★★ | 跳空高开 | 绪。短期沪金或挑战 910 位置，短线追高需要控制节奏仓位。中长期黄金支撑逻辑 | | | | 不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金、铜等市场大幅波动，短期情绪高涨。全球政策刺激明显，白银需求 | | 白银 | 跳空高开 | 坚挺，供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。短线可试多，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振，投机资金涌入铜市，伦铜创年内新高，节后沪铜或跟涨高开。建议铜前 | | 铜 | | 期多单继续持有，新多单等待回调企稳再入场，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 贵金属的平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，长期看好。 | | | | 国庆假期，伦锌震荡走强，伦锌库存不足 4 万吨，软挤仓风险 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年10月9日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 利多：成本上行支撑，厂家停减产计划。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 3万吨 | 环比有所增加1 | 09% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为8 | 6万吨 | 环比增长7 | 需求有所抬升 | 50% | ， | ， | . | . | . ...

近期，工业硅期货维持震荡下跌态势。9月30日，工业硅期货主力2511合约收报8640元/吨，下跌 0.17%，重回9000元/吨下方。 中信期货分析师郑非凡认为，当前工业硅期货价格震荡下行，主要原因是成本支撑减弱。"此前，煤炭 价格上涨为工业硅价格带来有力的成本支撑，叠加西北产区复产节奏放缓限制了供应增长。临近国庆假 期，煤炭市场交易量减少，价格大幅回落，工业硅的成本支撑明显减弱，进而带动价格同步下行。"郑 非凡解释称，工业硅对煤炭的依赖，主要体现在碳质还原剂的直接消耗以及火电电价的间接传导。自去 年年底以来，煤炭价格与工业硅价格高度相关，煤价波动会对硅价形成显著影响。 库存方面，当前工业硅库存出现小幅增加态势。根据百川盈孚数据，截至9月26日当周，工业硅现货库 存为44.50万吨，环比增加0.54%。 展望后市，方富强认为，大厂持续增产或带动工业硅供应增长，而多晶硅短期仍有限产预期，或导致工 业硅需求走弱。整体来看，工业硅基本面偏弱，价格或维持偏弱震荡态势。 蔡定洲也认为，尽管当前工业硅行业供需双增，但去库周期基本结束，甚至存在累库迹象，反映出基本 面已转向宽松。考虑两大主产区供应增减不一，同时核心消费终端 ...