供需格局拐点
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紫阁投资王欢:部分周期品正迎来“供需格局”拐点
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-28 13:59
Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Zige Investment, Wang Huan, indicated that under the influence of "anti-involution," certain cyclical commodities are experiencing a turning point in supply-demand dynamics, with coal and petrochemicals being prime examples [1] Group 1: Coal Industry - In the third quarter of this year, the national raw coal production decreased, and expectations for supply-side contraction are expected to strengthen further, leading to a significant increase in the prices of thermal coal and coking coal [1] Group 2: Petrochemical Industry - The turning point for the petrochemical industry is likely to occur around 2026. On one hand, the pressure for OPEC to increase production will largely materialize by 2025; on the other hand, both domestic and international situations are expected to show positive changes [1] - Nearly half of the domestic refining capacity is considered outdated, and the introduction of relevant aging assessment standards is expected to accelerate the exit of inefficient capacity. If the supply side contracts as anticipated, the profitability of the petrochemical industry may soon see an upward turning point [1]