Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4063 per ounce, reflecting an 18.2% increase since the beginning of the year, driven by a weakening dollar credit, expanding supply-demand gap, and normalized geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is strengthening, which is a major short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11, with a slight upward shift in the short-term oscillation center [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a weakening market expectation for Fed easing policies, which directly undermines gold's inflation and interest rate sensitivity [2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures from the dollar, the long-term logic for gold price increases remains solid due to a clear trend of Fed rate cuts and a low-interest-rate environment [2] - Central banks worldwide are continuing to purchase gold amid a de-dollarization trend, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] - Recent significant inflows into gold ETFs signal a positive shift in the funding landscape [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Global physical gold demand remains weak, particularly in major Asian markets, with India and China showing no significant growth in jewelry and investment demand due to multiple influencing factors [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $3900 to $4150 per ounce, with key support and resistance levels identified [3][4][5][6] - Key support levels include the $4040-$4050 area and the psychological level of $4000, while resistance levels are at $4100 and the $4130-$4150 range, which could indicate a trend change if breached [3][4][5][6]