摘要今日周一（11月24日）亚盘时段。截至2025年11月，国际金价在4063美元/盎司附近波动，较年初 涨幅达18.2%。黄金正处"美元信用弱化、供需缺口扩大、地缘风险常态化"三重驱动周期。短期虽受美 元反弹与机构调仓影响有回调压力，但中长期上涨逻辑坚实。预计2025年底金价在4000-4200美元/盎 司，2026年突破4800美元概率为75%，2025-2027年全球供需累计缺口将扩至5000吨，成支撑金价关键 因素。 今日周一（11月24日）亚盘时段。截至2025年11月，国际金价在4063美元/盎司附近波动，较年初涨幅 达18.2%。黄金正处"美元信用弱化、供需缺口扩大、地缘风险常态化"三重驱动周期。短期虽受美元反 弹与机构调仓影响有回调压力，但中长期上涨逻辑坚实。预计2025年底金价在4000-4200美元/盎司， 2026年突破4800美元概率为75%，2025-2027年全球供需累计缺口将扩至5000吨，成支撑金价关键因 素。 【要闻速递】 在技术分析层面，黄金价格预计将在3900至4150美元/盎司的区间内波动。以下是关键的支撑与阻力 位： 支撑位： 4040-4050美元区域，这是一个重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in international gold prices, following a significant rise, has sparked discussions among investors regarding the future of the gold market and its potential risks and opportunities [1] Group 1: Drivers of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current gold bull market, which began in 2018, has seen gold prices rise from under $1,800 per ounce to nearly $4,400 per ounce, an increase of over 150% [1] - The core drivers of this bull market are identified as the interplay of de-globalization, de-dollarization, and the normalization of geopolitical risks [2] - Long-term trends indicate that de-globalization has weakened the credit of the US dollar, while the demand for gold as a hard currency has increased due to its lack of sovereign credit backing [2] - Central banks globally are moving towards de-dollarization, with gold purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, more than double the average of the previous decade [2] Group 2: Characteristics of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current bull market differs from historical ones in terms of support, pricing logic, and market nature [5] - The support for this bull market has shifted from market-driven investment to official allocations, with central bank purchases now accounting for 23% of total gold demand, up from 14.8% in 2018 [5] - The pricing logic has evolved from being driven by single factors to a multi-factor resonance, allowing gold prices to rise independently of traditional influences like the dollar's strength or bond yields [5][6] - The nature of the market has transitioned from being event-driven to trend-driven, suggesting a more sustained upward trajectory rather than rapid fluctuations [6] Group 3: Gold's Unique Value Proposition - In a highly uncertain investment environment, gold's unique value lies in its role as a currency credit hedge, asset volatility buffer, and its long-term appreciation potential due to its scarcity [7] - Gold is not tied to any sovereign credit, making it a safe haven during times of economic distress, unlike stocks and bonds which are influenced by economic fundamentals [7] - The supply-demand dynamics for gold are characterized by rigid supply growth of only 1% to 2% annually, while central bank purchases continue to create a growing demand gap [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in international gold prices, following a significant rise, has sparked discussions among investors regarding the future of the gold market and its potential risks and opportunities [1] Group 1: Drivers of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current gold bull market, which began in 2018, has seen gold prices rise from under $1,800 per ounce to nearly $4,400 per ounce, an increase of over 150% [1] - The core drivers of this bull market are identified as the interplay of de-globalization, de-dollarization, and the normalization of geopolitical risks [2] - Long-term trends indicate that de-globalization has weakened the credit of the dollar, while the demand for gold as a hard currency has increased due to its lack of sovereign credit backing [2] - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, more than double the average of the previous decade [2] Group 2: Characteristics of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current bull market differs from historical ones in terms of support, pricing logic, and market nature [5] - The support for this bull market has shifted from market-driven investment to official allocations, with central bank purchases now accounting for 23% of total gold demand, up from 14.8% in 2018 [5] - The pricing logic has evolved from being driven by single factors to a multi-factor resonance, allowing gold prices to rise independently of traditional influences like the dollar's strength or bond yields [5][6] - The nature of the market has transitioned from being event-driven to trend-driven, suggesting a more sustained upward trajectory rather than rapid fluctuations [6] Group 3: Gold's Unique Value Proposition - In a highly uncertain investment environment, gold's unique value lies in its role as a hedge against currency credit risks, unlike stocks and bonds that are tied to economic fundamentals [7] - Gold serves as a volatility buffer in asset portfolios, with its correlation to risk assets decreasing over time, providing stability during economic downturns [7] - The scarcity of gold, with global production growth at only 1% to 2% annually, combined with rising central bank demand, creates a long-term value proposition that is unmatched by other assets [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The gold market is expected to maintain a "long-term slow bull, with periodic fluctuations" over the next 3 to 5 years, driven by the reconstruction of currency credit [8] - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, viewing gold as an asset insurance rather than a quick profit tool, and to adjust their investment tools based on their risk tolerance [9] - For conservative investors, a 15% to 20% allocation of household assets to gold is recommended, while more aggressive investors should carefully manage their positions in futures or gold stocks to mitigate risks [9]