Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4063 per ounce, reflecting an 18.2% increase since the beginning of the year, driven by a weakening dollar credit, expanding supply-demand gap, and normalized geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is strengthening, which is a major short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11, with a slight upward shift in the short-term oscillation center [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a weakening market expectation for Fed easing policies, which directly undermines gold's inflation and interest rate sensitivity [2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures from the dollar, the long-term logic for gold price increases remains solid due to a clear trend of Fed rate cuts and a low-interest-rate environment [2] - Central banks worldwide are continuing to purchase gold amid a de-dollarization trend, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] - Recent significant inflows into gold ETFs signal a positive shift in the funding landscape [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Global physical gold demand remains weak, particularly in major Asian markets, with India and China showing no significant growth in jewelry and investment demand due to multiple influencing factors [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $3900 to $4150 per ounce, with key support and resistance levels identified [3][4][5][6] - Key support levels include the $4040-$4050 area and the psychological level of $4000, while resistance levels are at $4100 and the $4130-$4150 range, which could indicate a trend change if breached [3][4][5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in international gold prices, following a significant rise, has sparked discussions among investors regarding the future of the gold market and its potential risks and opportunities [1] Group 1: Drivers of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current gold bull market, which began in 2018, has seen gold prices rise from under $1,800 per ounce to nearly $4,400 per ounce, an increase of over 150% [1] - The core drivers of this bull market are identified as the interplay of de-globalization, de-dollarization, and the normalization of geopolitical risks [2] - Long-term trends indicate that de-globalization has weakened the credit of the US dollar, while the demand for gold as a hard currency has increased due to its lack of sovereign credit backing [2] - Central banks globally are moving towards de-dollarization, with gold purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, more than double the average of the previous decade [2] Group 2: Characteristics of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current bull market differs from historical ones in terms of support, pricing logic, and market nature [5] - The support for this bull market has shifted from market-driven investment to official allocations, with central bank purchases now accounting for 23% of total gold demand, up from 14.8% in 2018 [5] - The pricing logic has evolved from being driven by single factors to a multi-factor resonance, allowing gold prices to rise independently of traditional influences like the dollar's strength or bond yields [5][6] - The nature of the market has transitioned from being event-driven to trend-driven, suggesting a more sustained upward trajectory rather than rapid fluctuations [6] Group 3: Gold's Unique Value Proposition - In a highly uncertain investment environment, gold's unique value lies in its role as a currency credit hedge, asset volatility buffer, and its long-term appreciation potential due to its scarcity [7] - Gold is not tied to any sovereign credit, making it a safe haven during times of economic distress, unlike stocks and bonds which are influenced by economic fundamentals [7] - The supply-demand dynamics for gold are characterized by rigid supply growth of only 1% to 2% annually, while central bank purchases continue to create a growing demand gap [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in international gold prices, following a significant rise, has sparked discussions among investors regarding the future of the gold market and its potential risks and opportunities [1] Group 1: Drivers of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current gold bull market, which began in 2018, has seen gold prices rise from under $1,800 per ounce to nearly $4,400 per ounce, an increase of over 150% [1] - The core drivers of this bull market are identified as the interplay of de-globalization, de-dollarization, and the normalization of geopolitical risks [2] - Long-term trends indicate that de-globalization has weakened the credit of the dollar, while the demand for gold as a hard currency has increased due to its lack of sovereign credit backing [2] - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, more than double the average of the previous decade [2] Group 2: Characteristics of the Current Gold Bull Market - The current bull market differs from historical ones in terms of support, pricing logic, and market nature [5] - The support for this bull market has shifted from market-driven investment to official allocations, with central bank purchases now accounting for 23% of total gold demand, up from 14.8% in 2018 [5] - The pricing logic has evolved from being driven by single factors to a multi-factor resonance, allowing gold prices to rise independently of traditional influences like the dollar's strength or bond yields [5][6] - The nature of the market has transitioned from being event-driven to trend-driven, suggesting a more sustained upward trajectory rather than rapid fluctuations [6] Group 3: Gold's Unique Value Proposition - In a highly uncertain investment environment, gold's unique value lies in its role as a hedge against currency credit risks, unlike stocks and bonds that are tied to economic fundamentals [7] - Gold serves as a volatility buffer in asset portfolios, with its correlation to risk assets decreasing over time, providing stability during economic downturns [7] - The scarcity of gold, with global production growth at only 1% to 2% annually, combined with rising central bank demand, creates a long-term value proposition that is unmatched by other assets [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The gold market is expected to maintain a "long-term slow bull, with periodic fluctuations" over the next 3 to 5 years, driven by the reconstruction of currency credit [8] - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective, viewing gold as an asset insurance rather than a quick profit tool, and to adjust their investment tools based on their risk tolerance [9] - For conservative investors, a 15% to 20% allocation of household assets to gold is recommended, while more aggressive investors should carefully manage their positions in futures or gold stocks to mitigate risks [9]