记者丨张欣 郭聪聪 编辑丨杨希 肖嘉 金珊 视频 丨 柳润瑛 受近期伊朗战局持续发酵的影响，国际金价波动加剧，国内实物黄金市场随之升温。 3月3日，21世纪经济报道记者走访北京市朝阳区多家金店发现， 尽管品牌金价已突破1600元/克，但价格贴近国际市场的实时金价投资金条迎 来热销，有金店单日投资金条销售额破百万，其中10至20克小克重产品备受青睐 。 与此同时，银行渠道投资金条面临紧缺，目前工商银行、农业银行APP端的投资金条均已售罄。 有消费者称，"年前我看农行还有投资金条， 现在只剩下投资银条了；工行昨天上午还有额度，今天看就没了。"记者注意到，交通银行APP端同样没有投资金条在售，但提供了金豆和迷 你金等小克重产品，规格为1g与3g，可组合购买。 然而，地缘政治风险引发的大类资产走势出现剧烈分化。 在通胀预期重估与避险情绪交织的背景下，黄金与原油走出反向行情 ：国际金价在3 月3日晚间一度跌破每盎司5000美元，单日重挫超300美元；而原油价格则大涨9%，突破85美元/桶。 3月4日， 国际金价 反弹 ， 截至19时，短线拉升 涨超2%， 逼近5200美元/盎司， 市场波动凸显出地缘政治与宏观政策预期的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-03-04 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | ...

贵金属周报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 美伊冲突再度升级，贵金属受到提振 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周市场在特朗普与美国最高法院的对抗加剧，以及美国 和伊朗第三轮核谈判的不确定性中持续走高。上周六美国 与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击，伊朗最高领袖 哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进攻，地缘政治 格局遭遇数十年来最剧烈冲击。 ⚫ 从以往的历史来看，地缘政治冲突的加剧会对贵金属价格 形成短期向上的驱动，短期贵金属价格可能会脉冲式上 涨，而后重回其运行趋势。此次美伊冲突引发市场避险情 绪的急剧抬升，从链上黄金冲高后回吐大 ...

朋友们，昨晚贵金属市场又疯了。 所以问题来了：现在还能追吗？ 我的判断很明确：短期别追高，长期别下车。 现货白银一度暴涨超6%，突破94美元/盎司，创下近两个月新高；现货黄金站上5280美元，逼近历史高 点。黄金2月累计上涨7.6%，连续第七个月收红；白银更猛，2月累涨近10%。 为什么涨？这次是三股力量同时发力。 第一股力量：地缘风险又回来了。 美军"福特"号航母抵达以色列水域，美国在中东部署的航母增至两 艘。美国驻以色列大使馆批准非紧急人员撤离。美伊谈判有进展但没定论，市场始终悬着一颗心。只要 霍尔木兹海峡这个"世界油阀"的航运安全受威胁，避险情绪就不会散。 第二股力量：资金在轮动。 美股那边，英伟达财报后连跌两天，AI硬件股集体回调。资金从涨太多的 科技股里撤出来，往贵金属里挪一挪。加上美债收益率跌破4%，持有黄金的机会成本下降，更刺激了 避险需求。 第三股力量：长期逻辑没变。 全球央行还在买金，中国央行连续15个月增持。美元信用弱化的叙事还 在继续。白银更特殊——连续五年供不应求，光伏、AI、新能源汽车的工业需求爆发，让它的价格弹 性远超黄金。 但这次有个细节值得注意：国内品牌金店开始酝酿新一轮提价。 ...

2月27日，国际金价延续走势，现货黄金站上5200美元/盎司。 黄金股同步走强，板块资金活跃度提升，黄金行情从期现市场延伸至权益端与消费端，多家品牌足金首 饰酝酿新一轮提价，行情传导链条逐步拉长。 与此同时，资金结构与机构研判亦为黄金提供支撑。头部黄金ETF规模持续扩容，多家公募机构指出， 央行购金与美元信用弱化仍是中长期主线，金价在经历阶段性震荡后结构性支撑未改，黄金的配置属性 再度凸显。 现货黄金再触5200美元关口 2月27日，国际金价延续强势走势，现货黄金收盘站上5200美元/盎司关口，并逼近5300美元/盎司关 口。此前一天，金价也一度重新站上5200美元/盎司，相较春节前累计涨幅超过3%，价格重心明显上 移。在经历阶段性震荡后，黄金资产再度成为市场关注焦点。 支撑金价的结构性因素未改 多家公募机构认为，尽管金价经历阶段性震荡，但支撑黄金的核心变量并未发生根本改变。 中银基金分析称，整体来看，黄金短期内预计或维持震荡偏强，应持续关注地缘、贸易事件。中长期 看，央行购金与美元信用弱化或仍是主线，中国央行已连续15个月增持黄金，高盛预计2026年全球央行 购金加速，美元信用削弱或将提升黄金配置价值。对于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market continues to decline, with significant price drops in both gold and silver, influenced by recent economic data from the United States [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 16, spot gold fell by 1.22% to $4976.82 per ounce, while spot silver dropped by 2.66% to $75.07 per ounce, with gold briefly falling below the $5000 per ounce mark [1]. - Since the beginning of 2026, gold and silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with gold reaching a historical high of $5594.77 per ounce on January 29, followed by a substantial pullback [1]. - As of February, the precious metals market has entered a phase of consolidation after the recent fluctuations [1]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Recent U.S. economic data has exerted pressure on precious metals, with January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than market expectations, and core CPI dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021 [1]. - Strong employment data has led the market to push back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to mid-year, which has tempered the outlook for gold and silver prices [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a notable divergence in the performance of gold and silver during this adjustment phase, with gold maintaining approximately a 15% increase year-to-date, while silver's gains have contracted from over 50% to single-digit levels [1]. - Silver's dual role as both a financial and industrial metal has resulted in greater selling pressure during the adjustment period, given its higher industrial demand [1]. Group 4: Domestic Market and Regulation - In the domestic market, several gold jewelry brands have maintained stable prices, with prices ranging from 1529 to 1530 yuan per gram, and the largest price drop observed in Lao Feng Xiang's gold products [2]. - The extreme volatility in the precious metals market has attracted regulatory attention, leading to a joint announcement from multiple departments in Shenzhen to regulate gold market operations and prohibit illegal trading activities [2]. - A report from Dongguan Securities indicates that while short-term market dynamics are uncertain, the long-term outlook for gold may improve due to a weakening dollar and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2].

Core Insights - The current commodity cycle is similar to the 1970s, characterized by a restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions, with precious metals playing a crucial role [1] - The current inflation exhibits structural characteristics, differing from the persistent high inflation of the 1970s, although both periods experience high volatility in inflation rates [1] - The current commodity rotation is in a long-cycle mid-to-late transition phase, marked by structural, phased, and policy-driven characteristics [1] Group 1: Commodity Cycle Characteristics - The current commodity cycle can be compared to the 1970s' "stagflation + geopolitical conflict," but with added variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [2] - Both cycles are in the downturn phase of the Kondratiev wave, with commodity prices influenced by "supply shocks + monetary easing," leading to a wave-like price movement [2] - New demand drivers like AI infrastructure and green transition have replaced traditional real estate infrastructure in the current cycle [2] Group 2: Market Differentiation - The most notable feature of the current commodity rotation is increasing differentiation, stemming from differences in sector logic and variety logic [3] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are showing strong performance, while oil prices are under pressure from trade wars and inflation uncertainties, indicating potential for rotation and upward movement [3] - The traditional rotation chain of gold → copper → oil → agricultural products has been disrupted, with a new chain emerging: gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → power infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The chemical sector is expected to perform well by 2026 due to domestic "anti-involution" policies, capacity exits from Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs [4] - Key signals to watch in the short term include the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on energy prices and the rotation opportunities in black metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and soft commodities following the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies [4] - Key commodities for the next rotation phase include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are recommended for focused attention [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid, with gold's role shifting from an inflation hedge to a geopolitical risk and dollar credit weakening hedge [1][22]. - As of the end of January, China's official gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces compared to December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [1][17]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as global central bank gold purchases, a weakening dollar, and the restructuring of the global monetary system [1][22]. Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining ETF tracks the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, showing strong price elasticity and higher beta values, particularly in commodity bull markets or inflationary environments [2]. - The non-ferrous mining index has achieved a cumulative increase of 279.71% over the past decade, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [2][12]. - The index's annualized return over the past decade is 14.71%, with a volatility of 30.04% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [15]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining index is heavily weighted towards copper, gold, and aluminum, which together account for over 58% of the index [7]. - Key components of the index include Zijin Mining (9.44% weight), Luoyang Molybdenum (9.25% weight), and Northern Rare Earth (5.69% weight) [10]. - The index's performance is characterized by higher elasticity compared to similar indices, reflecting its strategic significance in both industrial development and financial markets [12][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is not bearish recently. Even without direct incremental marginal drivers like reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts, there is a high possibility that interest rates will break through technically and move downward [3] - The recent asset price fluctuations reflect the loosening of the previous extreme narratives. Although long - term narratives such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, the reconstruction of the global trade pattern, and the development of social productivity driven by AI capital expenditure remain valid, asset prices may experience a phased reversal due to minor marginal variables when the market structure becomes extreme [4] - Due to the sudden outbreak of the Venezuela event and the Greenland dispute, the safety of US dollar assets has declined. The prices of resources and precious metals have been pushed up, but the rapid price increase and the inflated speculative nature have made "safe - haven assets" less safe. In the short term, A - bonds with historically low volatility may be better safe - haven assets, which is the core reason for the strength of the bond market recently [5] - The strategy is to hold long positions. As the contract roll - over time approaches, one can move positions to the 06 contract in advance [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Views - The bond market is not bearish recently, and there is a high possibility of an interest rate downward technical breakthrough [3] Recent Concerns - A - share adjustment, local two - sessions, and geopolitical event changes [4] - The essence of recent asset price fluctuations is the loosening of extreme narratives. Long - term narratives are still valid, but asset prices may reverse due to marginal variables [4] - The safety of US dollar assets has declined, and the prices of resources and precious metals have risen. However, "safe - haven assets" are less safe, and A - bonds may be better short - term safe - haven assets [5] Strategy Focus - Hold long positions and move positions to the 06 contract in advance as the roll - over time approaches [6] This Week's Concerns - Domestic macro: The situation of local two - sessions and the start time of Shanghai's second - hand housing acquisition [7] - Monetary policy: The central bank launched 14 - day reverse repurchase, and the net investment of 3M - term repurchase was 1 billion [7] - Overseas macro: US employment data has been consistently weaker than expected [8] - Geopolitical: The geopolitical environment has generally improved, with the US and Iran holding talks, India compromising with the US for low tariffs, and video and phone calls between Chinese and Russian, and Chinese and US leaders on the same day [9] Data Statistics - **Futures data**: 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had positive weekly price changes, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the highest increase of 0.63% for the TL2603 contract [15] - **Spread data**: The cross - period spreads of T2603 - T2606, TF2603 - TF2606, and TS2603 - TS2606 all decreased. The cross - variety spreads of 2TS - T increased by 0.081, 2TF - T decreased by 0.005, and TS - TF increased by 0.043 [15] - **Spot bond yields**: The yields of most treasury and national development bonds decreased, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield decreasing by 4.00 BP and the 30 - year national development bond yield decreasing by 3.73 BP [15] - **Funding rates**: The bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and SHIBOR rates (SHIBOR1M, SHIBOR3M) all decreased [15]

经历了暴涨暴跌后，贵金属市场再度企稳。截至北京时间2月3日16时28分，伦敦金现货价格从低位反弹约6%，收复4900美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现货价格反 弹约10%。市场情绪从极度恐慌中逐渐恢复，但波动率仍处于历史高位。 "最近我们调整黄金目标价的次数，绝对比过去任何时候都要频繁得多。"一位贵金属分析师在接受中国证券报记者采访时感慨道。 分析人士认为，近期贵金属市场震荡更多是行情过热后的主动降温，而非恐慌性撤离。在美元信用困局解决之前，贵金属中长期支撑价格上涨的核心逻辑依 然坚实。 5598.75美元/盎司的黄金历史最高价，9%的近40年最大单日跌幅，仅隔了一个交易日。2026年1月，贵金属市场给所有人上了一课。 开年以来大起大落 "历史上没有参照，我们只能摸着石头过河。"华闻期货总经理助理程小勇坦言，在当前国际黄金价格下，传统估值体系已难以简单套用。 从驱动逻辑看，本轮上涨行情与过去20年历次行情有本质不同。杨超表示，本轮长期影响因子包括：全球央行持续购金、美元走弱趋势、全球货币体系重 塑、经济政策不确定性对冲等结构性需求转变。 回顾过去一周，贵金属市场经历了罕见的大起大落。 1月，国际金价一度逼近5600美元 ...