黄金价格突破4100美元高位，创下自1979年以来最高单年涨幅，市场投机资金疯狂涌入的同时，全球央行却采取了更加审慎的增持 策略。 全球央行黄金储备中黄金占比从三年前的15%上升到如今的22%，但与1990年冷战末期的29%和1980年大滞胀末期的58%相比，还有 明显差距 根据世界黄金协会最新数据，超过95%的受访央行认为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金，这一比例创下自2019年调查以来的 最高纪录 在全球政治多极化、美国地缘影响力下降以及发达经济体债务警惕日益上升的背景下，处于以美元主导的旧国际秩序边缘地带的经 济体央行表现出强烈的购金意愿 2022年三季度以前，全球央行单季度购金量中枢约为100-200吨，而2022年三季度之后，这一数字已上升至200-400吨 黄金投资需求中"央行购金"的占比从2022年一季度的15%，一度上升至2024年四季度的高点54%，央行购金成为推动金价上涨的重要 力量 2025年世界黄金协会对央行黄金储备的调查结果显示，76%的受访央行表示未来5年黄金储备占比将继续"温和上升" 这一数据较2022年的46%、2023年的62%、2024年的69%呈逐年上升趋势，反映出央 ...

在全球去美元化趋势不断深化的背景下，黄金的战略地位持续上升。自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，美 元"武器化"促使各国加快减少对单一货币依赖的步伐，黄金由此进入重新定价阶段。此后三年，金价单 边上行，接连突破3000、4000美元整数关口，屡创历史新高。 目前，美元信用弱化周期仍在延续，全球央行增持黄金的需求依旧强劲，加之地缘政治紧张局势持续、 美债规模不断扩大，黄金的货币与避险属性共同支撑价格中枢稳步上移。分析认为，在多重结构性利好 推动下，黄金期货的长期上涨趋势难以根本改变。 从市场节奏看，2025年四季度金价波动较过去三年明显收窄，显示高位市场趋于理性。尽管多数机构对 2026年金价目标仍持乐观态度，甚至有预期指向5000美元，但从当前价格中枢测算，潜在涨幅已有所缩 小。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，COMEX 黄金期货最新报价 4424.80美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌42.30 美元，跌幅 0.94%，成功站稳 4400美元 / 盎司关口。当日开盘价 4467.10美元 / 盎司，最高价 4475.20美 元 / 盎司，最低价 4423.60美元 / 盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 510-520 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62% [1] - The company anticipates significant growth in mineral production for 2025, with gold production expected to increase by 23% and copper production by 2% [2] - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold and copper prices due to a weakening US dollar and supply-demand dynamics, supporting the company's profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of approximately 475-485 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 50%-53% [1] - For Q4 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is around 136 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4% [1] Production Outlook - The company projects mineral production for 2026 to grow by 17% for gold, 10% for copper, 19% for silver, and 380% for lithium carbonate [2] - The planned production for 2026 includes 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and 520 tons of silver [2] Price Trends - The average spot price of gold in London from October 1, 2025, to December 29, 2025, is expected to be 4,164 USD/ounce, a 56% increase from Q4 2024 and a 19% increase from Q3 2025 [2] - The average price of copper on the LME is projected to be 11,048 USD/ton, marking a 19% increase from Q4 2024 and a 12% increase from Q3 2025 [2] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the company's profit forecast based on rising gold and copper prices, estimating net profits of 515.1 billion yuan, 755.0 billion yuan, and 815.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 61%, 47%, and 8% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]

2025年，资本市场热闹非凡，港、A两市迎来大涨，AI、机器人、创新药等明星赛道热度不减，长期霸占市场焦点话题。 然而，从全年涨幅来看，真正显著领涨的板块，却是包括黄金白银贵金属在内的有色金属板块，截至12月31日收盘，有色金属全年飙涨94.73%，真正做 到了遥遥领先。 其中，虽然在白银期货最后一周因为飙涨太疯狂引来监管多次出手降温而大幅回落，但白银、黄金期货价格年内超130%、40%，甚至多次出现疯狂逼空 行情，并带动其他工业有色品种强势上涨。 在股票市场，除了贵金属外，铜、铝、钴、锂、稀土等等细分品类概念股同样进入了超级上涨大周期，年内多只有色行业龙头涨幅强势翻倍并不断获得机 构上调评级看好。 机构普遍认为，展望2026年，随着货币市场环境继续趋好，行业供需格局继续偏紧等综合因素作用下，有色板块依旧有较不错的上升空间。 01 港股有色全面暴涨，铜、贵金属涨幅居前 港股市场作为机构资金为主的成熟市场，价值导向相对A股更加明显，也因此造就了港股的优质价值股表现往往表现好于A股同类。 从板块涨幅来看，2025年港股有色板块的表现集体显著领先其他行业，其中铜概念大幅飙升超261%，断层领先其他板块，黄金及贵金属 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital markets in 2025 experienced significant activity, with the metals sector, particularly precious metals, leading the gains, showcasing a remarkable annual increase of 94.73% by year-end [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The precious metals sector, including silver and gold, saw year-to-date price increases of over 130% and 40%, respectively, despite regulatory interventions causing a pullback in silver prices [4][5]. - In the Hong Kong stock market, the copper sector surged over 261%, significantly outperforming other sectors, while gold and precious metals also saw increases exceeding 170% [4][5]. - The top five performing sectors in the Hong Kong market were all dominated by non-ferrous metals, marking a historical first [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) saw its stock price increase by over 163%, with a market capitalization exceeding 940 billion HKD, outperforming its A-share counterpart [7][9]. - China Molybdenum (03993.HK) experienced a stock price increase of over 287%, with a market cap reaching 410 billion HKD [9]. - China Hongqiao (01378.HK), the largest integrated electrolytic aluminum producer, recorded a stock price increase of 203.7%, with a market cap surpassing 320 billion HKD [9][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with a net profit of 37.86 billion RMB, up 55.45% [18][20]. - China Hongqiao's revenue for the first half of the year reached 81.04 billion RMB, a 10.12% increase, with a net profit of 12.36 billion RMB, up 35.02% [20][23]. - China Molybdenum's net profit for the first three quarters reached 14.28 billion RMB, a 72.61% increase, despite a revenue decline of 5.99% [24][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026, driven by favorable monetary conditions and a tight supply-demand balance [4][28]. - Global structural supply constraints in copper and aluminum are anticipated to maintain high prices, with projections indicating a significant copper concentrate deficit in 2025 [29]. - Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have expressed positive outlooks on the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the growth potential of leading companies like Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals like gold and silver, which have outperformed other sectors in 2025, with non-ferrous metals rising by 94.73% throughout the year [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals, including silver and gold, saw price increases of over 130% and 40% respectively, with silver experiencing extreme volatility due to regulatory interventions [5]. - In the stock market, non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths also entered a strong upward cycle, with leading companies in the sector seeing their stock prices double [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous sector outperformed other industries, with copper stocks soaring over 261%, and gold and precious metals rising by 197.85% [7][8]. Group 2: Company Performance - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) saw its stock price increase by over 163%, outperforming its A-share counterpart, with a current market capitalization exceeding 940 billion HKD [9]. - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) surged by over 287%, while China Hongqiao (01378.HK) recorded a 203.7% increase, with both companies showing strong earnings growth [11][22]. - China Hongqiao's revenue for the first half of the year reached 81.04 billion RMB, a 10.12% increase, with net profit rising by 35.02% [22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions expect the non-ferrous metal sector to continue its upward trajectory in 2026 due to favorable monetary conditions and a tight supply-demand balance [6]. - The article discusses the structural supply-demand gap in copper, with a projected global copper concentrate deficit of 848,000 tons in 2025, indicating a tightening market [32][33]. - The performance of leading companies like Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao is expected to remain strong, supported by their resource reserves and integrated industrial chains [34].

标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2025/12/12-2025/12/25） 行 业 有色金属行业 国际金价首次突破 4500 美元，白银价格刷新历史高位 2025 年 12 月 26 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。截至2025年12月25日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨5.71%，跑赢 沪深300指数3.73个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第3名。截至2025年12月 25日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，小金属板块上涨7.51%，能源金属板块 上涨6.89%，金属新材料板块上涨6.31%，贵金属板块上涨5.66%，工业金属板 块上涨4.82%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 申万有色金属行业指数走势 贵金属。12月23日，COMEX黄金价格收于4515美元/盎司，首度突破4500美元， 较 ...

中信建投研报认为，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修，黄金、白 银、铂、钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦表现强势。金属价格上涨的背后，一面是充裕 的流动性，另一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。 黄金需求创季度新高 今年以来，全球贵金属价格走势不平静，其中黄金和白银价格不断创出历史新高，今年11月在广州期货 交易所上市的钯和铂期货近期更是连续大涨。 贵金属价格大幅上涨 本周一（12月22日），全球贵金属主要品种集体上涨，截至17时，伦敦金现上涨近1.7%，盘中创下 4420.47美元/盎司的新高，年初至今上涨超68%；伦敦银现上涨超1.7%，盘中创出69.45美元/盎司的高 位，年初至今上涨近140%；现货铂金、现货钯金当天分别上涨超4%和近2%。 国内贵金属也大幅上涨。钯、铂期货主力合约当天均报收涨停，白银期货主力合约收盘上涨6.06%，年 内涨幅达到116.16%；黄金期货主力合约收盘再次突破100元/克，上涨2.1%，年内涨幅达到62.3%。 受贵金属价格集体上涨影响，A股、港股相关个股亦有明显涨幅。万得贵金属行业指数周一大涨4.2%， 共有3 ...

黄金价格在2025年出现大幅上涨，主要受以下因素驱动： 1. 美联储降息周期 中国、印度等新兴市场国家加速"去美元化"，持续增持黄金储备。2025年前三季度全球央行净购金达 634吨，为金价提供长期支撑。 4. 美元信用弱化 美国财政赤字扩大、货币超发引发通胀担忧，削弱美元信用，投资者转向黄金抗通胀。 5. 市场情绪与资金流向 金价突破关键点位后，量化交易和杠杆资金放大涨幅，黄金ETF资金流入创纪录。 美联储自2025年9月起连续降息75个基点，导致美元指数下跌超10%，持有黄金的机会成本降低，推动 金价上涨。 2. 地缘政治风险 俄乌冲突、中东局势紧张以及中美贸易摩擦升级，全球不确定性增强，避险资金涌入黄金市场。 3. 全球央行购金 ...

大宗周期-有色金属行业主题报告 20251216 摘要 2026 年黄金价格预计将受益于美元信用走弱，美联储降息预期、鲍威 尔卸任后可能出现的政策不确定性，以及美国财政和政治问题，将共同 推动金价上涨，全球央行购金也将形成支撑。 铜市场方面，海外铜矿项目面临资源禀赋降低、政策约束强化等问题， 限制了产能释放。同时，AI 硬件和算力基础设施建设将显著拉动铜需求， 预计铜价仍将处于中枢上行趋势。 电解铝市场，国内产能接近天花板，海外高电价加剧了产能运行的不确 定性。尽管如此，新能源汽车需求的强劲增长以及国内外电解铝库存处 于历史低位，预示着电解铝价格弹性有望进一步放大。 锡市场供应端面临印尼打击非法采矿、缅甸复产缓慢以及刚果（金）战 乱等多重扰动，导致全球锡供应紧张。国内锡矿加工费已触及近五年低 位，AI 产业增长将带动锡焊料需求，预计价格中枢将开启长周期上行趋 势。 碳酸锂市场在 2026 年将延续强劲势头，国内云母矿供应波动风险依然 存在，海外锂资源扩张周期进入中后段。新能源汽车和储能需求的快速 增长将为碳酸锂提供支撑，储能有望成为新的增长极。 Q&A 展望 2026 年，有色金属板块的投资逻辑主要集中在三条 ...