Core Viewpoint - The mid-term trend of gold prices is influenced by the credit and liquidity factors of the US dollar, with expectations of continued liquidity easing and weakening dollar credit driving gold prices higher [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Context and Price Trends - Historically, the average increase in gold prices six months after Middle Eastern conflicts is 10% [2]. - An analysis of 12 major conflicts since 1970 shows that while short-term price increases are limited, the mid-term average increase reaches 34% when at least three of five influencing factors are positive [2]. - Previous conflicts have shown that gold prices tend to rise significantly in periods of favorable dollar credit and liquidity conditions, with an average six-month increase of 26% [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - The current economic environment suggests that liquidity easing and weakening dollar credit will continue to support gold prices, with potential catalysts from "stagflation" concerns [3]. - The expectation of 1-2 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, alongside declining real interest rates, is anticipated to benefit gold prices [3]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" has led to increased gold purchases by central banks, with net purchases expected to exceed 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024 [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The gold sector is expected to see new highs, with the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of leading companies dropping to historical lows of 15-20x, providing a significant margin of safety [5][7]. - Historical data indicates that the gold index has shown substantial gains post-conflict, with average half-year increases of 35% during favorable conditions [5]. - The potential for gold prices to reach $6,000 per ounce is supported by the combination of weakening dollar credit, liquidity easing, and heightened risk aversion [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant fluctuations in international gold prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, leading to increased demand for physical gold in the domestic market [1][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of March 3, the price of branded gold in China surpassed 1600 yuan per gram, with investment gold bars experiencing a surge in sales, with some stores reporting daily sales exceeding one million yuan [1][6]. - There is a notable shortage of investment gold bars in bank channels, with major banks like ICBC and ABC showing sold-out statuses on their apps [1][8]. - The demand for smaller investment gold bars (10 to 20 grams) is particularly high, with prices ranging from 10,000 to 20,000 yuan [6][10]. Group 2: Price Volatility - On March 3, international gold prices fell below 5000 USD per ounce, experiencing a single-day drop of over 300 USD, while oil prices surged by 9% [1][10]. - Following this, gold prices rebounded on March 4, nearing 5200 USD per ounce, indicating a complex interplay between geopolitical risks and macroeconomic expectations [1][10]. Group 3: Product Differentiation - The market distinguishes between investment gold bars and crafted gold bars, with the former being priced closely to real-time market rates and the latter incorporating higher brand premiums and craftsmanship costs [7][8]. - Investment gold bars are not available for repurchase at many stores, which only buy back their own crafted gold products [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will remain volatile in the short term, supported by factors such as weakened dollar credit and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [3][11]. - The geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran relations, are expected to continue influencing gold prices, with a potential for long-term upward trends in gold investment [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic situation is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts, policy adjustments, and market supply - demand relationships. The Middle East conflict has a significant impact on international energy markets, leading to price fluctuations and supply disruptions. Different industries have different development trends, with some facing challenges and others having opportunities [4][9][11]. - The bond market shows multiple trends. The inter - bank bond market remains relatively strong, but concerns about inflation due to high oil prices still exist. The convertible bond market has adjustment opportunities, and different institutions have various analyses and suggestions for different bond types [24][30][31]. - The stock market experiences significant fluctuations. The A - share market and the Hong Kong stock market both decline, with different sector performances affected by geopolitical events [34]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 slowed down to 4.5% year - on - year, compared with 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.4%. The social financing scale in January 2026 was 7220.8 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 4710 billion yuan [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - Multiple commodity exchanges adjusted trading rules. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of fuel oil futures contracts and adjusted the price limit and margin ratios of some contracts. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange made similar adjustments to crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line) futures contracts. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order volume of methanol futures contracts [2][3]. - Geopolitical events in the Middle East have a significant impact on energy prices and market expectations. The conflict between the US and Iran has led to price increases in "war metals" such as tungsten products. The US president's stance on the Iran issue has affected market sentiment, and the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year has dropped to 50% [4][5]. Metals - Tungsten product prices have risen due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict. On March 3, 2026, the prices of tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate, and tungsten powder all increased, with the price of black and white tungsten concentrates rising by 20,000 yuan per standard ton to 850,000 yuan per standard ton. The prices of these products have increased by 70% - 80% this year [5]. - On March 3, 2026, most domestic precious metal prices declined, but the prices of some physical gold increased. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF increased, while the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF decreased [5][6]. - According to LME inventory data, on March 2, 2026, the tin inventory reached a new high in more than 2 years and 1 month, while the zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel inventories decreased, and the copper inventory remained stable at a high level in more than 11 months [6]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Indonesian government has allocated a nickel ore production quota of about 2.6 billion tons for 2026. By reducing the annual production target, the government aims to control price fluctuations, which may reshape the long - term supply path of nickel metal [8]. Energy and Chemicals - Six ministries and commissions jointly issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules, which is expected to turn waste photovoltaic modules into "urban minerals" and bring development opportunities to the industry [9]. - The National Energy Administration emphasized promoting the healthy and orderly development of the green fuel industry through various measures [9]. - The tense situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp decline in the traffic volume of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the dry bulk and container logistics in the region. The production suspension of Qatar's energy export facilities has affected the supply of multiple commodities, and Goldman Sachs has raised its natural gas price forecast [9][11]. Agricultural Products - The central government will conduct a central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on March 4, 2026, with a listed volume of 10,000 tons [13]. - The Middle East war may disrupt Brazil's beef exports. The US has sold 196,000 tons of corn to an unknown destination. India may experience its hottest March, which may reduce the production of wheat and rapeseed. Argentina's agricultural export revenue in February decreased by 41% year - on - year, and Indonesia has increased the export tariff of crude palm oil to 12.5% since March [14][15][16]. Financial News Open Market - On March 3, 2026, the central bank conducted 34.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan on the same day. In February 2026, the central bank's MLF had a net investment of 30 billion yuan, 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 12.05 billion yuan, and open - market treasury bond trading had a net investment of 5 billion yuan [17]. Important News - The 2026 National Two Sessions are about to be held. The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4 to 11, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on March 5 [18]. - China urges all parties to stop military actions in the Middle East to ensure energy supply and stability. The US president has made a series of statements on the Iran issue, including providing insurance for oil transportation and predicting oil price trends [18][19]. - The market supervision department shows that the corporate credit index in January 2026 remains at a high - level range, and the credit environment in people's livelihood - related fields continues to improve. Shenzhen has issued a notice to regulate urban renewal projects [20][21]. - The central bank disclosed that the bond market custody balance at the end of January 2026 was 197.7 trillion yuan, and the custody balance of overseas institutions in the Chinese bond market was 3.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.7% of the total. The issuance scale of dim - sum bonds has exceeded 140 billion yuan since February [21][22]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market remains relatively strong, with short - term bonds performing well. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the money market funds at the beginning of the month were still loose. The stock market adjustment has supported the bond market, but concerns about inflation due to high oil prices still exist [24]. - The exchange bond market has different trends for different bonds. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index both declined. The money market interest rates mostly decreased, and the yields of European and US bonds generally increased [24][25][27]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8997 on March 3, 2026, down 142 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.52%, and most non - US currencies declined [29]. Research Report Highlights - Different institutions have different views on the market. Huatai Fixed - Income is optimistic about investment opportunities in the technology growth sector and resources and precious metals. CITIC Securities believes that it is difficult to form a downward trend in bond interest rates without more external positive factors. Xingzheng Fixed - Income suggests focusing on some regional bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, and is optimistic about the upward space of convertible bonds [30][31]. Today's Reminders - On March 4, 2026, 215 bonds will be listed, 110 bonds will be issued, 95 bonds will be paid, and 135 bonds will pay principal and interest [33]. Stock Market - On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.12%. The energy sector rose, while the military, non - ferrous metals, semiconductor, and other sectors declined [34]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has initiated a special action for all Shenzhen - listed companies to improve quality and returns [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market continued to rise amidst the intensifying confrontation between Trump and the US Supreme Court and the uncertainty of the third round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. On Saturday, the US and Israel jointly launched a large - scale military strike against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran vowed to launch the most violent offensive, causing the most severe shock to the geopolitical pattern in decades [2][5][6]. - Geopolitical conflicts usually drive up precious metal prices in the short - term. After a possible pulse - like increase, prices may return to their original trend. The current US - Iran conflict has sharply increased market risk - aversion. Based on the trend of on - chain gold, the market expects the Middle East conflict to be controlled. It is predicted that precious metal prices may open higher and then fluctuate on Monday. If the geopolitical situation gets out of control, gold prices may break previous highs; if it is quickly controlled, gold prices will remain in a high - level oscillation. Silver prices are expected to remain highly volatile. In the long - term, due to frequent geopolitical risks and the continuous weakening of the US dollar's credit, the long - bull trend of precious metals remains solid [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1147.90 | 37.80 | 3.41% | 150146 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1142.48 | 33.98 | 3.07% | 38408 | 235980 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 5296.40 | 166.40 | 3.24% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 23019 | 3237 | 16.36% | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 22369 | 3099 | 16.08% | 498864 | 2988126 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 94.39 | 9.82 | 11.61% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 623.75 | 99.95 | 19.08% | 16904 | 7355 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 609.99 | 84.94 | 16.18% | - | - | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2376.20 | 84.94 | 9.43% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 464.85 | 84.94 | 11.53% | 4636 | 7355 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1828.00 | 84.94 | 2.32% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [3] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, the market was affected by the intensifying confrontation between Trump and the US Supreme Court and the uncertainty of the third - round nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's additional tariffs were illegal. The US imposed a 10% temporary global import tariff, and the average tariff rate dropped from 17.6% to 9%. Trump threatened to raise the tariff to 15% or higher [5]. - The third - round indirect nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran ended with significant differences. The US demanded Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear facilities, while Iran proposed to stop nuclear activities for a limited period and then resume them under supervision. The subsequent military strike and the death of Khamenei shocked the geopolitical pattern [6]. - The unexpectedly strong US PPI data restricted the Fed's easing space. Fed officials were divided on interest - rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believed that further rate cuts were not appropriate until there was more evidence of continuous inflation decline. Fed Governor Milan expected a 100 - basis - point rate cut in 2026 and advocated an early and substantial cut [6]. 3. Important Data Information - In January, the US PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.6%, previous 3%) and 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous revised from 0.5% to 0.4%). The core PPI increased by 3.6% year - on - year (a one - year high, expected 3%, previous 3.3%) and 0.8% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous revised from 0.7% to 0.6%) [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 212,000 (expected 215,000, previous revised from 206,000 to 208,000). The unemployment rate in February seemed stable, and the market still expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [9]. - The Indian market regulator allowed active - management equity funds worth $384 billion to allocate more funds to gold and silver, with a maximum of 35% of the remaining assets [9]. - Hong Kong is promoting the construction of an international gold trading center, planning to increase gold storage to over 2000 tons in three years, strengthen the linkage between Hong Kong and Shanghai's gold markets, and launch a gold central clearing system trial operation this year. Tax incentives for qualified institutions will also be considered [10]. - The Shanghai Gold & Jewelry Trade Association suggested that when recycling gold jewelry, sellers' valid IDs should be checked and recorded [10]. 4. Related Data Charts - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: The total gold holdings of ETFs were 1101.33 tons on February 27, 2026, an increase of 22.58 tons compared to the previous week. The silver holdings of ishare were 15992.40 tons, an increase of 474.79 tons compared to the previous week [13]. - Multiple charts showed the price trends, inventory changes, and non - commercial net long positions of precious metals in different markets, as well as the relationships between precious metal prices and other factors such as the US dollar, inflation expectations, and interest rates [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][25][27][29][32][33][36][38][41][43]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant price increases, with silver rising over 6% and gold approaching historical highs, driven by three main factors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The return of geopolitical risks is a major factor, highlighted by the deployment of the U.S. aircraft carrier "Ford" to Israeli waters and the evacuation of non-emergency personnel from the U.S. embassy in Israel, which has heightened market anxiety [3]. - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain inconclusive, keeping the market on edge regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a rotation of funds from overvalued tech stocks, particularly after Nvidia's disappointing earnings report, into precious metals, as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases with U.S. Treasury yields falling below 4% [4]. - Central banks globally continue to purchase gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for 15 consecutive months, reinforcing the long-term demand for gold [4]. Group 3: Silver's Unique Position - Silver has been in a supply-demand deficit for five consecutive years, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and electric vehicles driving its price elasticity beyond that of gold [4]. - Domestic gold retailers are preparing for a new round of price increases, indicating that the gold market is extending from financial markets into physical consumer markets [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Short-term investment in precious metals is cautioned against due to recent price surges, while long-term holding is recommended [5][6]. - Investors are advised to monitor two key signals: the U.S.-Iran situation and upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could impact gold prices [6]. - Silver is noted for its greater price elasticity compared to gold, with potential for larger gains, albeit with higher volatility [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international gold prices have continued to rise, with spot gold surpassing $5200 per ounce, indicating a strong market trend and renewed interest in gold as an investment asset [1][2] - Gold stocks have also strengthened, with notable increases in companies such as Hunan Gold and Huayu Mining, reflecting heightened market activity and investor sentiment towards gold [2][3] - The rising gold prices are beginning to affect the retail sector, as major domestic gold jewelry brands are preparing for price increases, signaling a transmission of market trends from financial to physical consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The scale of leading gold ETFs has been steadily increasing, with significant inflows reported, indicating sustained investor interest despite price fluctuations [3] - Structural factors supporting gold prices remain unchanged, with central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credibility identified as key long-term drivers for gold investment [4][5] - The recent ruling against U.S. tariffs is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures and may create favorable conditions for gold, enhancing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market continues to decline, with significant price drops in both gold and silver, influenced by recent economic data from the United States [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 16, spot gold fell by 1.22% to $4976.82 per ounce, while spot silver dropped by 2.66% to $75.07 per ounce, with gold briefly falling below the $5000 per ounce mark [1]. - Since the beginning of 2026, gold and silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with gold reaching a historical high of $5594.77 per ounce on January 29, followed by a substantial pullback [1]. - As of February, the precious metals market has entered a phase of consolidation after the recent fluctuations [1]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Recent U.S. economic data has exerted pressure on precious metals, with January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than market expectations, and core CPI dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021 [1]. - Strong employment data has led the market to push back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to mid-year, which has tempered the outlook for gold and silver prices [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is a notable divergence in the performance of gold and silver during this adjustment phase, with gold maintaining approximately a 15% increase year-to-date, while silver's gains have contracted from over 50% to single-digit levels [1]. - Silver's dual role as both a financial and industrial metal has resulted in greater selling pressure during the adjustment period, given its higher industrial demand [1]. Group 4: Domestic Market and Regulation - In the domestic market, several gold jewelry brands have maintained stable prices, with prices ranging from 1529 to 1530 yuan per gram, and the largest price drop observed in Lao Feng Xiang's gold products [2]. - The extreme volatility in the precious metals market has attracted regulatory attention, leading to a joint announcement from multiple departments in Shenzhen to regulate gold market operations and prohibit illegal trading activities [2]. - A report from Dongguan Securities indicates that while short-term market dynamics are uncertain, the long-term outlook for gold may improve due to a weakening dollar and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2].

Core Insights - The current commodity cycle is similar to the 1970s, characterized by a restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions, with precious metals playing a crucial role [1] - The current inflation exhibits structural characteristics, differing from the persistent high inflation of the 1970s, although both periods experience high volatility in inflation rates [1] - The current commodity rotation is in a long-cycle mid-to-late transition phase, marked by structural, phased, and policy-driven characteristics [1] Group 1: Commodity Cycle Characteristics - The current commodity cycle can be compared to the 1970s' "stagflation + geopolitical conflict," but with added variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [2] - Both cycles are in the downturn phase of the Kondratiev wave, with commodity prices influenced by "supply shocks + monetary easing," leading to a wave-like price movement [2] - New demand drivers like AI infrastructure and green transition have replaced traditional real estate infrastructure in the current cycle [2] Group 2: Market Differentiation - The most notable feature of the current commodity rotation is increasing differentiation, stemming from differences in sector logic and variety logic [3] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are showing strong performance, while oil prices are under pressure from trade wars and inflation uncertainties, indicating potential for rotation and upward movement [3] - The traditional rotation chain of gold → copper → oil → agricultural products has been disrupted, with a new chain emerging: gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → power infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The chemical sector is expected to perform well by 2026 due to domestic "anti-involution" policies, capacity exits from Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs [4] - Key signals to watch in the short term include the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on energy prices and the rotation opportunities in black metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and soft commodities following the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies [4] - Key commodities for the next rotation phase include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are recommended for focused attention [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid, with gold's role shifting from an inflation hedge to a geopolitical risk and dollar credit weakening hedge [1][22]. - As of the end of January, China's official gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces compared to December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [1][17]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as global central bank gold purchases, a weakening dollar, and the restructuring of the global monetary system [1][22]. Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining ETF tracks the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, showing strong price elasticity and higher beta values, particularly in commodity bull markets or inflationary environments [2]. - The non-ferrous mining index has achieved a cumulative increase of 279.71% over the past decade, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [2][12]. - The index's annualized return over the past decade is 14.71%, with a volatility of 30.04% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [15]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining index is heavily weighted towards copper, gold, and aluminum, which together account for over 58% of the index [7]. - Key components of the index include Zijin Mining (9.44% weight), Luoyang Molybdenum (9.25% weight), and Northern Rare Earth (5.69% weight) [10]. - The index's performance is characterized by higher elasticity compared to similar indices, reflecting its strategic significance in both industrial development and financial markets [12][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is not bearish recently. Even without direct incremental marginal drivers like reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts, there is a high possibility that interest rates will break through technically and move downward [3] - The recent asset price fluctuations reflect the loosening of the previous extreme narratives. Although long - term narratives such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, the reconstruction of the global trade pattern, and the development of social productivity driven by AI capital expenditure remain valid, asset prices may experience a phased reversal due to minor marginal variables when the market structure becomes extreme [4] - Due to the sudden outbreak of the Venezuela event and the Greenland dispute, the safety of US dollar assets has declined. The prices of resources and precious metals have been pushed up, but the rapid price increase and the inflated speculative nature have made "safe - haven assets" less safe. In the short term, A - bonds with historically low volatility may be better safe - haven assets, which is the core reason for the strength of the bond market recently [5] - The strategy is to hold long positions. As the contract roll - over time approaches, one can move positions to the 06 contract in advance [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Views - The bond market is not bearish recently, and there is a high possibility of an interest rate downward technical breakthrough [3] Recent Concerns - A - share adjustment, local two - sessions, and geopolitical event changes [4] - The essence of recent asset price fluctuations is the loosening of extreme narratives. Long - term narratives are still valid, but asset prices may reverse due to marginal variables [4] - The safety of US dollar assets has declined, and the prices of resources and precious metals have risen. However, "safe - haven assets" are less safe, and A - bonds may be better short - term safe - haven assets [5] Strategy Focus - Hold long positions and move positions to the 06 contract in advance as the roll - over time approaches [6] This Week's Concerns - Domestic macro: The situation of local two - sessions and the start time of Shanghai's second - hand housing acquisition [7] - Monetary policy: The central bank launched 14 - day reverse repurchase, and the net investment of 3M - term repurchase was 1 billion [7] - Overseas macro: US employment data has been consistently weaker than expected [8] - Geopolitical: The geopolitical environment has generally improved, with the US and Iran holding talks, India compromising with the US for low tariffs, and video and phone calls between Chinese and Russian, and Chinese and US leaders on the same day [9] Data Statistics - **Futures data**: 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had positive weekly price changes, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the highest increase of 0.63% for the TL2603 contract [15] - **Spread data**: The cross - period spreads of T2603 - T2606, TF2603 - TF2606, and TS2603 - TS2606 all decreased. The cross - variety spreads of 2TS - T increased by 0.081, 2TF - T decreased by 0.005, and TS - TF increased by 0.043 [15] - **Spot bond yields**: The yields of most treasury and national development bonds decreased, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield decreasing by 4.00 BP and the 30 - year national development bond yield decreasing by 3.73 BP [15] - **Funding rates**: The bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and SHIBOR rates (SHIBOR1M, SHIBOR3M) all decreased [15]