当前有色金属板块的短期回调主要受美联储降息预期反复及部分资金获利了结影响，但在美联储降息周 期推动美元流动性转向、中美财政政策协同发力制造业与新基建的背景下，工业金属需求获得支撑，而 黄金也在美元信用边际弱化中凸显其配置价值。分板块看，贵金属短期因美国就业数据分歧而承压，但 中长期全球央行购金及美元信用弱化趋势仍将推动金价中枢上移；工业金属中的铜、铝在供应约束与需 求回暖下呈现去库态势；能源金属如锂、钴则受益于动力电池和储能需求旺盛、以及刚果（金）钴出口 受限等因素，价格具备上行动力。整体而言，在供给刚性、新兴需求扩张及流动性改善的多重驱动下， 中证申万有色金属指数估值分位数处于近10年较低水平，板块中长期配置价值依然稳固，建议关注有色 金属ETF(512400.SH)。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 11月26日，沪深两市震荡上行，通信设备板块涨幅居前。截至10点，有色金属ETF(512400.SH)涨 0.36%，华友钴业涨1.67%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant decline, primarily influenced by the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices, creating a potential opportunity for investors to consider undervalued segments within the industry [1] Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Summary - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a substantial decline of 6.75% last week, with a single-day drop of 5.26% on November 21 [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 42.9% on November 17 to 35.4% on November 20 [1] - Some investors believe the sector may continue to face weakness, making it difficult to identify investment opportunities [1] Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Summary - The electrolytic aluminum sector may have been unfairly punished, as the leading companies' stock offerings do not impact the overall supply-demand balance or profitability [2] - Current valuations for companies like Tianshan Aluminum have fallen to around 8.5 times historical lows, while dividend yields have risen to approximately 6%, providing defensive support for the sector [2] - The sector is expected to benefit from increased industrial metal demand due to U.S. fiscal expansion in 2026, with potential price increases driven by overseas demand [2] Gold Sector Summary - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's December rate cut [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by weakening U.S. dollar credit and increasing government debt, which reached $38.37 trillion as of November 20, up by $0.176 trillion since November 13 [3] - U.S. fiscal spending is anticipated to boost demand in the non-ferrous metal sector, potentially raising metal prices and benefiting gold prices in the medium term [3] Investment Recommendations - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is recommended for its improved cost structure and potential for volume and price growth in 2026 [4] - Other notable companies include Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ), Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH), and Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) [4] - In the gold sector, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) is recommended due to its improving gold production and accelerating performance [4] - Additional companies to watch include Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) and Shanjin International (000975.SZ) [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4063 per ounce, reflecting an 18.2% increase since the beginning of the year, driven by a weakening dollar credit, expanding supply-demand gap, and normalized geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is strengthening, which is a major short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11, with a slight upward shift in the short-term oscillation center [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a weakening market expectation for Fed easing policies, which directly undermines gold's inflation and interest rate sensitivity [2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures from the dollar, the long-term logic for gold price increases remains solid due to a clear trend of Fed rate cuts and a low-interest-rate environment [2] - Central banks worldwide are continuing to purchase gold amid a de-dollarization trend, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] - Recent significant inflows into gold ETFs signal a positive shift in the funding landscape [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Global physical gold demand remains weak, particularly in major Asian markets, with India and China showing no significant growth in jewelry and investment demand due to multiple influencing factors [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $3900 to $4150 per ounce, with key support and resistance levels identified [3][4][5][6] - Key support levels include the $4040-$4050 area and the psychological level of $4000, while resistance levels are at $4100 and the $4130-$4150 range, which could indicate a trend change if breached [3][4][5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a recent decline, driven by geopolitical tensions, weakening dollar credit, and central bank gold purchases, despite uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fell below $4,000 but rebounded, with gold stocks ETF rising nearly 2% and the Hua Xia Gold ETF increasing by 1.2% [1] - COMEX gold saw a four-day decline, totaling a 3.4% drop, before a V-shaped reversal occurred, with spot gold and New York futures both surpassing $4,080 [1] - The recent market correction was attributed to overbought conditions and tightening liquidity, with COMEX gold experiencing a 6% decline from October 21 to November 18 [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs set a gold price target of $4,440 for Q1 2026, while Morgan Stanley predicts a rise to $4,500 by mid-2026 [1] - Despite uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's December rate cut, the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle remains unchanged, and market liquidity is expected to improve with the U.S. government reopening and the cessation of balance sheet reduction on December 1 [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - There was a significant net inflow into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of 1.777 billion yuan into the SGE gold 9999 tracking ETF, and the Hua Xia Gold ETF seeing a net inflow of 138 million yuan over 14 consecutive trading days, totaling 824 million yuan [1] - The Hua Xia Gold ETF (518850) has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2% and allows T+0 trading, while the gold stock ETF (159562) also has a 0.2% fee and focuses on gold and copper stocks [2]

资金更是坚定借道ETF投资黄金，昨日金价大回调的情况下，跟踪SGE黄金9999的ETF单日净流入17.77 亿元，其中黄金ETF华夏(518850)单日净流入1.38亿元，已连续14个交易日获资金净流入，累计达8.24亿 元，金价10月21日高点回调以来该ETF净流入13.76亿元。 值得关注的产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 黄金投资"利器"：黄金ETF华夏(518850)，+1.29%，跟踪SGE黄金9999指数，综合费率为0.2%，属于同 类最低，可t+0交易。 "金价放大器"：黄金股ETF(159562)，+1.97%，跟踪SSH黄金股票，成分股以黄金、铜占主导，同时配 置白银股，综合费率为0.2%。 格隆汇11月19日｜昨日一度跌破4000美元的黄金今日反弹，带动黄金股ETF涨近2%，黄金ETF华夏涨 1.2%。 近日COMEX黄金4连跌，累计回调3.4%后，纽约尾盘上演V型反转，今日顺势反弹，现货黄金、纽约期 金双双升破4080美元。 黄金保持上涨态势的本质是地缘冲突避险+不受主权信用约束+美元信用弱化+央行持续购金+美联储开 启降息周期，近期回调是市场过度共识下的超买+流动性收紧、美联储12月降息预期回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in interest rate decisions among Federal Reserve officials is impacting gold prices, leading to a decline in COMEX gold futures and related ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - COMEX gold futures opened lower and are currently trading around $4028 per ounce, reflecting a downward trend [1] - Gold ETF 华夏 (518850) has seen a net inflow of 686 million yuan over the past 13 trading days, despite a 0.74% drop today [1] - Other related ETFs, such as 黄金股 ETF (159562) and 有色金属 ETF 基金 (516650), have also experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.56% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - There is increasing disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate decisions, with at least three officials expected to oppose maintaining the current rates in the upcoming December meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve were to cut rates by 25 basis points, the opposition could also reach at least three votes [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Longcheng Futures indicates that the recent pullback in gold prices follows a period of strong performance, driven by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing [1] - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, contributing to the recent decline in gold prices [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, while medium to long-term support remains from risks of economic recession, fiscal expansion, and weakening dollar credibility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. The short - term gold price may fluctuate within a range, while the medium - and long - term is supported by economic recession risks, fiscal expansion, and weakening US dollar credit. For Shanghai Silver futures, the overall trend is in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. The short - term may consolidate within a range, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged under the support of macro - easing, supply - demand gap, and weakening US dollar credit. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 01. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the gold price showed a pattern of "strengthening in oscillation and then回调". The core logic was driven by the resonance of "signals of weak US economy" and "expectations of Fed easing", along with factors such as the weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases. The Friday回调 was due to high - level profit - taking pressure. In the future, the short - term gold price may fluctuate within a range, and the medium - and long - term is supported by economic recession risks, fiscal expansion, and weakening US dollar credit. Attention should be paid to the re - issuance of US economic data and Fed policy trends [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 02. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai Gold main contract 2512 was expected to fluctuate between 900 - 940 yuan/gram in the short term, with the upper pressure level at 930 - 940 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 will consolidate in a short - term oscillation. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 900 - 910 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 03. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22]. Silver Futures 01. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [30]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the silver price showed a pattern of "rising in oscillation and then回调 at a high level", reaching a record high of 12,600 yuan/kg. The core driving logic was the resonance of the strengthened expectations of Fed easing (ending QT and interest - rate cut expectations) and the structural shortage of spot goods, along with the surge in investment demand (increase in ETF holdings) and the resilience of industrial demand (recovery in photovoltaic and Indian imports). The Friday回调 was mainly due to high - level profit - taking and technical resistance, and the continuous decline in open interest indicated cautious market sentiment. In the future, the short - term may consolidate within a range, and the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged under the support of macro - easing, supply - demand gap, and weakening US dollar credit [30]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. 02. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver main contract 2512 was expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention paid to the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kg. The upper resistance level was 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,000 - 11,200 yuan/kg. Short - term grid trading was recommended [33]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The silver contract 2602 will consolidate in a short - term oscillation. The upper pressure level is 12,000 - 12,600 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. 03. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [41][43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - After a significant upward trend, the prices of gold and silver have notably corrected. However, considering the three main fundamental drivers of overseas geopolitical risks, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, and the start of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut cycle, the current price decline is more of a "correction within an upward trend" rather than a "trend reversal." Therefore, it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and allocate long positions in precious metals on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 10937 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold dropped 1.18% to 905.06 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.49% to 11180.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3954.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 47.04 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 3.99%, and the US dollar index was 98.74. The Federal Reserve will hold an October interest - rate meeting early tomorrow. Amid the current easing of US inflation data and the lack of labor - market data, the market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in this meeting [1] Central Bank Gold Reserves - The former governor of the Philippine central bank stated that the central bank's gold reserves were excessive, accounting for 13% of its total central - bank reserves. He also mentioned that the central bank was debating whether to increase gold holdings or take profit. After the news was announced, the gold price dropped significantly, and the international silver price was weak. The views of the Philippine central bank do not represent the general trend of central - bank gold purchases. The global central - bank gold - buying is aimed at hedging against the US - dollar credit. The South Korean central - bank officials said they would consider increasing gold holdings from a long - term perspective, and before that, South Korea's central - bank gold reserves had remained unchanged for 12 consecutive years [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold on October 28, 2025, compared with the previous day: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.72% to 3968.10 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 1.94% to 33.06 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price decreased by 0.56% to 3948.50 US dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 3.51% to 901.38 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 24.38% to 64.34 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.72% to 34.94 million lots; the closing price of AuT + D decreased by 3.61% to 896.69 yuan/gram, trading volume increased by 21.58% to 67.74 tons, and open interest increased by 0.36% to 258.77 tons - For silver on October 28, 2025, compared with the previous day: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 0.66% to 47.14 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price decreased by 1.95% to 46.44 US dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 3.03% to 11049.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume increased by 35.58% to 176.07 million lots, and open interest decreased by 2.69% to 70.24 million lots; the closing price of AgT + D decreased by 3.08% to 10996.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume increased by 17.10% to 765.42 tons, and open interest increased by 0.19% to 3717.77 tons [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, capital markets experienced increased volatility, with risk assets generally rising after an initial decline. Overseas, geopolitical events and policy uncertainties influenced market trends, while in China, economic data weakened in Q3, leading to strengthened policy support [4][63]. - The significant correction in gold prices from historical highs can be attributed to factors such as the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical adjustments. However, the long - term drivers for gold prices remain strong [5][8]. - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 but emphasized the fragility of the global economy and the need for structural reforms [34][36]. - In China, CPI and PPI both showed narrowing declines, indicating potential for monetary easing policies. Exports in September exceeded expectations, but the real estate sector continued to drag down the economy [40][50][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Capital Market Performance - **Overseas**: Trump's tariff increase on China, the US government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations affected market sentiment. Risk assets generally rose, but gold and silver prices corrected significantly, and non - US currencies depreciated [4][63]. - **Domestic**: The domestic futures market showed a differentiated pattern, with stocks, bonds, and commodities having mixed performances. The stock market experienced a technical correction, and the bond market showed a seesaw effect with the stock market [4][69]. Gold Price Analysis - **Reasons for the Correction**: The decline in gold prices was due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the rebound of the US dollar, and technical overbought conditions, which triggered large - scale profit - taking and programmed selling [5][8]. - **Historical Comparison**: The 5.31% decline in London spot gold on October 21, 2025, ranked seventh among the top ten single - day declines since 2000 [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The long - term drivers for gold prices, including the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, the "scar effect" on asset allocation, and investment demand, remain intact [21][24]. Global Economic Outlook - **Growth Forecast**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% but warned of continued weakness, high public debt, and trade policy uncertainties [34][36]. - **Regional Performance**: Asia is expected to remain the main engine of global growth. AI is estimated to boost global economic growth by 0.1% - 0.8% annually [36]. China's Economic Indicators - **CPI and PPI**: In September, China's CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. Both showed narrowing declines, but CPI was still affected by factors such as low pork and oil prices and high - base effects [41][43]. - **Exports**: In September, China's exports reached $3285.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, exceeding expectations [50]. - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1015036 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [58]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with significant declines in various real - estate - related indicators [59]. Market Trends - **Commodities**: The CRB and Nanhua commodity indices showed different trends. Historically, the Nanhua commodity index has a slightly higher probability of rising in November [75]. - **Stock Market**: In October, the stock market experienced a technical correction, with value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The price - to - earnings ratios of major stock indices were under pressure, and the equity risk premium rebounded [79]. - **Global Economy**: Global economic sentiment weakened, with both the manufacturing and service sectors showing a decline. Inflation in major economies rebounded, and central banks' monetary policies diverged [86][94][97]. - **China's Economy**: China's manufacturing PMI continued to improve in September, while M2 growth declined, M1 growth increased, and the credit cycle showed signs of starting [106][111]. - **External Demand**: China's export growth showed resilience, but there were still concerns about external demand. Import and export price indices declined, and the export profit margin widened negatively [123]. - **Internal Demand**: Real - estate investment continued to decline, and consumption growth slowed down, with travel data dropping after the summer vacation [124][131]. - **Inflation**: China's CPI remained negative, and PPI decline slowed down. The macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased [134]. - **Mid - level Industries**: Steel prices fluctuated downward, oil prices dropped with increased inventory, copper prices rose with inventory reduction, and coking coal prices continued to rebound [141].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is mainly due to the expectation of a temporary easing of overseas risk events and an over - bought correction in trading, rather than a reversal of the trading logic. The price decline is more of a "correction in the upward trend" than a "trend reversal" based on geopolitical risks, weakening US dollar credit, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, focusing on the upcoming Fed interest - rate meeting and considering buying on dips. [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On October 27, 2025, Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) fell 0.48% to 941.34 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.25% to 11,419.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.41 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 98.94. [2] - From August 22 to October 17, the price of the COMEX gold main contract rose by 26.21%, and the price of the COMEX silver main contract rose by 31.23%. On October 21, COMEX gold prices dropped by 5.07%, and COMEX silver prices dropped by 6.27%. [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - Overseas risk events: Media reports of a potential peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term drop in precious metal prices. However, the situation has not been completely reversed as Trump and the White House stated there are no plans for a meeting between the US and Russian presidents. [2] - US inflation data and Fed policy expectations: US September CPI data was lower than expected, boosting expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Due to the government shutdown in October, inflation data may not be released in November. The market has almost fully priced in two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the next two Fed meetings. [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - Maintain a long - position strategy. Focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on Thursday (market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut), and pay attention to Powell's statement on the balance - sheet. It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 923 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 11,082 - 12,023 yuan/kilogram. [4] 3.4 Data Summary - **Gold**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.39% to 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 10.19% to 29.20 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.44% to 938.10 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 33.87% to 49.95 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.28% to 35.59 million lots. [7] - **Silver**: On October 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.49% to 48.41 US dollars/ounce, open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) decreased by 1.18% to 11,332.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 5.55% to 147.59 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.97% to 73.99 million lots. [7]