1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The PX - PTA industry chain faces triple pressures of cost collapse (weak crude oil), weakening supply - demand, and inventory reconstruction, and there is a risk of a further downward shift in the price center in November. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term, with insufficient price rebound momentum [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On October 17, the PX main contract closed at 6,292.0 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 59.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,402.0 yuan/ton, down 1.21% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 42.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on October 17, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.02 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 56.95 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on October 17, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 871.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 857.0 million meters [2]. - On the supply side, there is an expectation of loose supply for PX and PTA. For PX, the pressure of new domestic device production in the fourth quarter is limited, but the restart of some large - scale devices and the high - load operation of existing devices may increase the overall supply. For PTA, the supply will increase marginally, but the compression of processing fees may lead to the maintenance of high - cost devices [2]. - On the demand side, the negative feedback pressure is gradually emerging. Polyester manufacturers have implemented production reduction plans, and the risk of a decline in weaving orders after Double Eleven is increasing. The terminal polyester demand may be further pressured, and the marginal consumption of PTA is weakening [3]. - On the inventory side, PTA factory inventories may turn to accumulation. It is expected that PTA will enter the inventory accumulation cycle in November, and the inventory cycle switch and weak demand may suppress the repair space of PTA processing fees [3]. Polyester - On October 17, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,036.0 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,290.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 254.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The terminal textile demand has no significant increase. The inventory of polyester staple fiber has decreased but is still higher than the five - year average, and the inventory days of polyester filament are significantly higher than the five - year average. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term, and the high inventory of polyester will suppress the downstream restocking willingness [4][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.32%, the trading volume decreased by 17.04%, and the open interest increased by 3.24%. PX spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis increased by 58.74% [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.21%, the trading volume decreased by 11.14%, and the open interest increased by 0.39%. PTA spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis increased by 56.25% [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.92%, the trading volume increased by 12.79%, and the open interest increased by 0.75%. The spot price decreased by 0.24%, and the basis increased by 19.25% [6]. - Other prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, and some other products remained unchanged, while the prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, and some polyester filaments decreased [6]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased slightly, while those of most polyester products decreased [7]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 4.69%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics increasing by 1.08% and that of short - fiber fabrics increasing by 18.13% [7]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 19.39%, while those of polyester POY, FDY, and DTY increased [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Multiple views on the Fed's interest - rate cuts were expressed, including calls for different magnitudes of cuts and concerns about the policy path due to government shutdowns. There were also statements about the gold market and inflation data [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 17, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 871.0 million meters, a 4.69% increase from the previous day, with 657.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 215.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9].