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“十五五”启幕,蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源研究· 2025-07-31 07:49
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July Central Political Bureau meeting, emphasizing the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic conditions. The meeting sets the stage for the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for high-quality economic development and structural reforms [2][3][4]. Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target. This performance is noted despite external pressures, showcasing the resilience of the Chinese economy [2][3][4]. - The meeting removed the phrase "external shocks are increasing" from its risk assessment, indicating a more optimistic outlook while still stressing the need for vigilance and bottom-line thinking [2][3][4]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for macroeconomic policies to continue to exert force and be adjusted as necessary, particularly focusing on supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4][17]. - It emphasized the need to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and improve the effectiveness of fiscal measures, including the issuance of government bonds, which had a progress rate of 50.6% as of July 13, lower than the same period in previous years [4][17]. - The monetary policy discussion did not mention interest rate cuts but introduced measures to lower the overall financing costs for society, indicating a shift towards enhancing the transmission of monetary policy [4][17]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting placed greater emphasis on cultivating service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, linking consumption policies with social welfare initiatives to stabilize consumer demand [5][18]. - It reiterated the importance of "high-quality" investments and the prohibition of new hidden debts, aiming to mitigate risks in key sectors while promoting urban renewal and infrastructure development [7][19]. - The concept of "anti-involution" was highlighted, focusing on regulating competition among enterprises and fostering industries with international competitiveness [5][18][19].