Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are currently weak, but there is still macro risk sentiment, leading to price fluctuations. The price is expected to range between 77,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3]. - Global copper inventories have increased significantly on the margin, and the macro situation is uncertain but not yet negative. Unilateral operations should be cautious, while long-term inventory depletion logic favors forward contract term positive spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading End - Volatility: Volatility in SHFE copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has all declined, with COMEX copper price volatility dropping to around 60% [10]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has widened. The COMEX copper C structure has narrowed [12][15]. - Position: Positions in SHFE copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all decreased, with SHFE copper positions decreasing by 18,600 lots to 464,000 lots [16]. - Capital and Industry Positions: The net long position of CFTC non-commercial traders has decreased, and the net short position of LME commercial traders has increased [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined [26]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories have increased, with a significant increase in LME inventories. Domestic social inventories have increased, bonded area inventories have decreased, and COMEX inventories have increased [29][32]. - Position-Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position-inventory ratio has declined, weakening the logic of spot tightness [33]. 2. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports have increased year-on-year, port inventories have increased, and processing fees have marginally rebounded, but smelters are still in a loss-making state [36][38]. - Recycled Copper: Recycled copper imports have increased year-on-year, while domestic production has decreased significantly. The scrap-to-refined spread is weak, and import losses have widened [39][44]. - Blister Copper: Blister copper imports have increased, and processing fees are at a low level [49]. - Refined Copper: Domestic refined copper production has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and spot import losses have widened [52][53]. 3. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened in July on a month-on-month basis. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded in the week of August 7th [56]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have weakened [59][62]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level [63]. - Finished Product Inventory: Copper rod finished product inventories have declined, and wire and cable finished product inventories have decreased [66]. 4. Consumption End - Consumption: Apparent copper consumption is good, and grid investment is an important support. Grid investment has accelerated, and the air conditioning output growth rate has rebounded. New energy vehicle production is at a high level compared to the same period in history [71][73].