Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focusing on the cease - fire negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of the sanctions policy has decreased. The market is concerned about whether India will resume the spot market procurement of Russian oil next week. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating. The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased by 3.03 million barrels. The peak of the peak season for gasoline and jet fuel demand has passed. The CDU autumn maintenance this year is scheduled to be later and the planned maintenance volume is lower than in previous years, which supports the demand for crude oil feedstock. In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Russian crude oil supply. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of oversupply [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs News - Trump had a phone conversation with Putin and is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Ukraine proposed to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons in exchange for security guarantees. It also plans to reach a $50 billion agreement with US companies to produce drones [3]. - Crude oil futures continued to fluctuate within a range. The market is concerned about whether the Russia - Ukraine conflict can end. International markets may view the prospects of Russia - Ukraine peace with caution. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts for the end of 2025 and March 2026 to $62 per barrel due to increased supply from South America and strong production in sanctioned countries. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will recover to $65 per barrel by mid - 2026 [4]. Regional Fundamentals - EIA reports showed that in the week of August 8th, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.72% increase [4]. - From August 8th to 14th, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries increased, while the inventories of gasoline and diesel decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries increased month - on - month [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.159 million barrels per day, a 2.89% increase compared to the same period last year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. The import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [16]. Price Data - From August 12th to 18th, prices of WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, SC, OMAN and other crude oils showed different degrees of change. For example, WTI increased by $0.62, BRENT increased by $0.75, and SC increased by 0.20 yuan [3]. - Prices of refined oil products such as domestic gasoline, domestic diesel, Japanese naphtha, and Singapore fuel oil also changed. For example, domestic gasoline decreased by 40 yuan, and domestic diesel decreased by 84 yuan [3].