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【非银】保费“开门红”或超预期,资负共振推动股价上行——近期港股保险上涨点评(王一峰/黄怡婷)
光大证券研究· 2026-01-04 23:04
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户,用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便, 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 投资:资本市场稳中向好有望持续推动险企盈利释放 一方面,随着上市险企投资资产规模持续稳健增长以及股票仓位维持在较高水平(25H1末五家上市险企合 计9.3%的股票资产占比已是近十年最高值),权益市场稳中向好将进一步提振险企投资收益表现,进而推 动盈利释放。另一方面,未来随着险企进一步提升OCI股票配置力度,高股息策略下分红收入提升有助于 险企进一步夯实净投资收益安全垫;同时,若26年长端利率企稳态势延续(25年四季度10年期国债收益率 稳定于1.79%-1.87%区间),将利好险企新增固收资产投资收益率。 风险提示: 保费收入不及预期;资本市场大幅波动;利率超预期下行。 2026年1月2日,香港保险指数上涨3.0%,跑赢恒生 ...
近期港股保险上涨点评:保费开门红或超预期,资负共振推动股价上行
EBSCN· 2026-01-04 12:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Views - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from strong premium growth, particularly in the context of the "opening red" performance, which may exceed expectations [2][3]. - The competitive advantage of savings-type insurance products remains strong against other wealth management products, especially as traditional and participating insurance rates decline [3]. - The agency channel is anticipated to see a rebound in new business growth, while the bancassurance channel is expected to become a significant growth driver [4]. - The stable performance of the capital market is likely to continue driving profit releases for insurance companies [5]. - The report recommends specific insurance stocks that are expected to benefit from asset-driven growth, including China Life Insurance and New China Life Insurance [6]. Summary by Sections Premium Growth - The Hong Kong insurance index rose by 3.0%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.2 percentage points, with major insurers like China Life and PICC showing significant gains [2]. Product Competitiveness - Savings-type insurance products are positioned favorably due to lower bank deposit rates and a high willingness to save among residents, with a projected internal rate of return (IRR) of "1.75% guaranteed + floating" making them competitive in the wealth management market [3]. Distribution Channels - The agency channel is expected to recover in new business growth, while the bancassurance channel is set to expand due to the easing of restrictions on cooperation between banks and insurance companies [4]. Investment Performance - The investment asset scale of listed insurance companies is steadily growing, with a high stock allocation expected to enhance investment returns and profit releases [5]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China Life (A+H), New China Life (A+H), and China Pacific Insurance (A+H) for their strong performance and stable operations [6].