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海外中资股2025中报业绩预览:中报盈利预期的配置线索
HTSC· 2025-08-01 05:21
Core Insights - The report predicts that overseas Chinese stocks will experience a concentrated disclosure period for mid-2025 earnings in late August, with an expected earnings growth rate of 13% for the first half of 2025, up from 8% in 2024 [1][2][4] - The materials sector is expected to see significant improvement in earnings growth, while technology and healthcare sectors are likely to maintain high growth. However, consumer discretionary and energy sectors may face downward pressure on earnings growth [1][3][4] - As of July 30, 2025, the earnings forecast disclosure rate for overseas Chinese stocks is approximately 17%, with a current overall positive forecast rate of 60%, particularly strong in utilities, finance, and healthcare sectors [1][5] Industry Analysis - The materials sector, particularly construction and chemicals, is showing signs of earnings recovery due to easing capacity pressures and cost optimization. The technology and healthcare sectors continue to exhibit high growth [3][4] - Consumer discretionary and energy sectors are under pressure, with intense competition in e-commerce and automotive sectors potentially dragging down short-term earnings. The energy sector, dominated by industry giants, shows resilience against short-term fluctuations [3][4] - The telecommunications, consumer staples, finance, and utilities sectors are maintaining stable earnings, with notable sub-sectors such as diversified finance and transportation expected to see earnings acceleration [3][4] Tactical Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests increasing allocations to high-growth and value stocks in the gaming and internet e-commerce sectors, as these sectors are expected to benefit from improving market conditions and valuations [7][8] - Despite high valuations, innovative pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials are highlighted for their high earnings forecast rates and potential for upward revisions [8]