Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold and silver is cautiously bullish, and the strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, while the option strategy is to hold off [9][10] Core View - The main logic for being bullish on precious metals remains unchanged: long-term concerns about US debt put pressure on the credit currency system, and precious metals are expected to continue to benefit. Meanwhile, risks from tariffs and geopolitical black swan events have not been fully eliminated. Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential for a rebound in the future [9][10] Market Analysis - The US government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, becoming the second-longest in history. The two parties remain deadlocked on the upcoming expiration of medical subsidies, and the shutdown may last until November and exceed the 35-day record during Trump's first term. As of October 21, the total US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid-August [2] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 22, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 962.82 yuan/gram and closed at 952.56 yuan/gram, a change of -4.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 934.72 yuan/gram, down 1.87% from the afternoon close [3] - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11,400.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,404.00 yuan/kg, a change of -3.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,682,838 lots, and the open interest was 386,233 lots. The night session closed at 11,331 yuan/kg, down 0.64% from the afternoon close [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 22, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.947%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.513%, up 0.63 BP from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On October 22, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 2,019 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 302 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract the previous day was 1,023,342 lots, a change of 47.18% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract the previous day was 2,631,399 lots, a change of 10.40% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,058.66 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 79 tons to 15,598 tons [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 22, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 46.83 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -576.11 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 83.53, a change of -0.81% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.59, a change of 4.25% from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On October 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 99,064 kg, a change of 13.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 2,347,356 kg, a change of 10.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,890 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 184,560 kg [8] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly and gradually develop a rebound repair market. The oscillation range of the Au2512 contract may be between 915 yuan/gram and 965 yuan/gram [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The oscillation range of the Ag2512 contract may be between 10,800 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [10] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: Hold off [10]