Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - On November 27, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 947.46 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.16% [1] - The opening price for the day was 947.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 949.94 CNY and a low of 943.20 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - In November, U.S. consumer confidence experienced its largest decline in seven months, with the consumer confidence index dropping by 6.8 points to 88.7, against an economist's median expectation of 93.3 [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the previous week was recorded at 216,000, the lowest since April 12, 2025, while the previous week's figure was revised from 220,000 to 222,000 [1] - The number of continuing jobless claims slightly increased to 1.96 million, indicating growing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find reemployment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity remained largely unchanged during the government shutdown, with tariff pressures squeezing corporate profits and AI suppressing some hiring demand [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - The U.S. core PPI for September increased by 2.6% year-on-year, below the expected growth of 2.7% [1] - U.S. retail sales for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4% [1] - ADP's weekly data showed that private sector jobs decreased by an average of 13,500 per week over the past four weeks, a significant increase from the previous week's loss of 2,500 jobs [1] - The recent weak economic data has increased the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - On November 26, the U.S. dollar index fell to 99.59, while COMEX gold fluctuated sideways and COMEX silver saw a significant increase [1] - Short-term outlook for precious metals suggests more volatility [1]

11月27日，沪银期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报12371.00元/千克，大幅上涨2.08%。 近期美联储多位官员放鸽，市场对美联储在12月降息的预期维持至80%上方。地缘政治方面，俄罗斯表 示美国特使将于下周访问莫斯科，但谈判俄乌冲突结束"为时尚早"。 机构观点 国投安信期货：隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得21.6万人为2025年4月12日当周以来新低，经济 具备韧性，黄金震荡白银相对强劲。俄罗斯方面表示已收到美方关于乌克兰和平计划的最新版本，现在 说即将达成协议还为时尚早。降息和地缘前景仍存不确定性，贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。 五矿期货：美联储宽松货币政策预期在联储关键票委讲话后显著回升，海外降息周期仍将持续。但进一 步的驱动将在12月集中释放，当地时间12月10日美联储将会进行本年度最后一次议息会议并公布经济展 望报告（包含点阵图），而在十二月下旬特朗普将大概率完成新任联储主席的选拔。当前贵金属策略上 建议逢低做多，沪金主力合约参考运行区间917-967元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间11661-13000元/ 千克。 【消息面汇总】 11月26日，沪银前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多 ...

分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 11 月 26 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，花生涨近 4 ...

消息面上，近期多位美联储官员密集释放"鸽派"信号。据媒体报道，北京时间25日晚间，美联储理事米 兰表示，美国经济需要大幅降息，货币政策阻碍了经济发展。美国不存在通胀问题，美联储应该尽快将 利率降至中性水平。此前，美联储官员戴利也表示支持在12月的美联储会议上降低利率。有机构预测， 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已上升至84.7%。 中新社北京11月26日电 (记者 陈康亮)中国商品期货市场26日(周三)表现总体平稳，主要品种互有涨跌。 其中，沪银、沪金期货主力合约价格延续涨势，连续两个交易日上涨。 根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，当天沪银、沪金期货主力合约价格分别上涨1.79%和0.55%，收 盘价分别报每千克12227元(人民币，下同)和每克946.72元。 国贸期货分析师白素娜表示，近期，中国贵金属期货价格走强，主要是因为美联储"鸽派"声音渐多，市 场关于美联储12月进一步降息的预期有所升温，推动贵金属价格上涨。 瑞达期货的最新研报称，就中长期而言，美国债务压力凸显，黄金作为美元信用对冲的首选资产仍具备 吸引力，叠加各国央行的购金热情，有利于对黄金等贵金属的长期价格形成结构性支撑。(完) ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 946.720 | 0.2↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 12227 | +100.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 188,763.00 | +7594.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 69,820.00 | -10102.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 341,225.00 +41536.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,643,769.00 | +274389.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 90423 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 531,211 | -9361↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 941.16 | -0.38↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 12,150.00 | 33.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.56 | -0.60↓ 沪银主力合约基差 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-26 美10月联邦预算赤字高企 贵金属价格走强 市场分析 通胀数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新 升温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销售四个月 来首次下滑。财政数据方面，美国财政部表示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月份联邦政府预算赤字高达2840 亿美元；财政端压力进一步凸显。一位财政部官员表示，由于许多联邦机构"停摆"43天，导致部分款项（例如政 府雇员的工资）的支付延迟，2026财年第一个月的预算结果被推迟发布。美联储方面，美联储主席选拔进入最后 阶段，美国财政部长贝森特称，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。此外，美联储理事 米兰发表最新讲话称，当前货币政策阻碍了经济发展，美国经济需要大幅降息。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-25，沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克，收于946.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.74%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于942.56元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].

| 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 90423 | -3 | 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周二（11月25日）黄金期货开盘价935.60元/克，截至目前最高949.78元/克， 最低933.38元/克。截止发稿报946.50元/克，涨幅1.48%，成交量为299689手，持仓为181169手，日持仓 增加16549手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 美东时间11月23日，白宫发布联合声明称，美国与乌克兰代表团当天在瑞士日内瓦就美方提出的结束俄 乌冲突"28点"新计划举行会谈。 据央视新闻报道，双方就下一步路径方面取得了进展，并据此共同起 草了更新后的和平框架文本。最终决定将由两国元首作出。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周二（11月25日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计90423千克，今日仓 单较上一日减少3千克。 王毅周六称，中国绝不允许日本右翼势力"开历史倒车"，绝不允许外部势力染指台湾，绝不允许日本军 国主义"死灰复燃";将同各方一道维护一个中国原则的国际共识，共同维护二战胜利成果。 ...

文字早评 2025/11/25 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话； 2、央行：11 月 25 日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年 期； 3、11 月以来，恒生科技 ETF 合计净申购份额已经超过 250 亿份，连续 2 个月净申购在 200 亿份以上； 有机构将目前行情视作"进入布局区"； 4、工业富联：公司未向市场下调第四季度利润目标。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.29%/-0.64%/-0.95%/-1.93%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.60%/-1.33%/-2.94%/-5.91%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.86%/-1.77%/-3.78%/-6.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.21%/-0.30%/-0.31%/-0.63%。 【策略观点】 经过近期的持续下跌后，指数有望阶段性企稳。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长 仍是市场主线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL 主力合约收 ...

2025.11.24-11.28 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈现区间震荡走势，核心驱动逻辑为美债收益率波动、美 联储政策预期分歧及市场情绪反复。短期来看，金价或延续910-970元/ 克区间震荡；中长期受全球央行购金趋势延续、美联储降息周期预期支 撑，价格中枢有望逐步上移。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2602短期震荡整固，上方压力位960－970元/克，下方 支撑位900-910元/克，建议以观望为主。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2602短期延续震荡，上方压力位960－970元/克，下方支 撑位910-920元/克，建议以观望为主。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 相关数据情况 10000000.00 15000000.00 20000000.00 25000000.00 30 ...