1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Trump signaled a缓和 of the US - Iran situation, leading to a short - term pull - up and then a sharp decline in precious metals. Powell said the Fed would "ignore" the short - term energy shock, reducing bets on interest rate hikes this year. Fed's Milan released dovish signals, and the weakening of US short - term Treasury yields supported gold and silver prices. Geopolitical factors restricted the rebound of precious metals. In the future, if the geopolitical conflict persists and supports high oil prices, the precious metals' rebound space may be suppressed. However, if the US economic slowdown is verified and the upcoming non - farm data is weak while CPI inflation rises significantly, gold prices may benefit from stagflation risks. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar credit still exist, so the strategy is to be short - term cautious and long - term bullish [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1020.10 yuan/gram, up 5.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18126 yuan/kilogram, up 419 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 520 hands to 180,433 hands, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 8724 hands to 17,199 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 58160 to 335,355, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 178429 to 881,875. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 106644 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 5760 to 368,667 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1018.90 yuan, up 10.15 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 18,308 yuan, up 1003 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.20 yuan/gram, up 4.93 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 182 yuan/gram, up 584 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.43 tons to 1046.13 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 121.10 tons to 15,288.36 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 8458 to 168327, and those of silver increased by 2792 to 24,673. The quarterly total supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons to 1302.80 tons, and the annual total supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons to 1345.32 tons, and the annual total demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 100.51, up 0.32; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.04, down 0.09. The VIX volatility index was 30.61, down 0.44; the CBOE gold volatility index was 42.71, down 2.80. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.40, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 64.02, down 2.42 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said he was willing to end the military action against Iran, and Iran agreed to most of the "15 - point cease - fire plan". Powell said the Fed would maintain the interest rate and "ignore" the short - term energy shock. Williams thought the current interest rate was in a favorable position, while Milan called for a 100 - basis - point interest rate cut this year. The Bank of Japan's governor said that if the interest rate hike was delayed, long - term interest rates might rise rapidly, and short - term consumer prices might be more volatile [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index; April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment; April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI; April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28; April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance; April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If the geopolitical conflict persists and supports oil prices at a high level, inflation stickiness expectations may strengthen, pushing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to remain strong, which may suppress the rebound space of precious metals. However, if the slowdown of the US economy is further verified by data, with weak non - farm payroll data and significantly higher CPI inflation, gold prices may benefit from the substantial increase in stagflation risks. In the long - term, central banks' continuous gold purchases and the weakening of the US dollar's credit still exist, and gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains. The strategy can be short - term wait - and - see and long - term bargain - hunting [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 16.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 17707 yuan/kg, up 218 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 180,953 hands, up 11,870 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 25,923 hands, down 6,769 hands. - The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold is 393,515 hands, up 77,112 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai Silver is 1,060,304 hands, up 186,734 hands. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold is 106,644 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver is 374,427 kg, up 2,628 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 1008.75 yuan/gram, up 14.85 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 17,305 yuan/kg, up 157 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.13 yuan/gram, down 1.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 402 yuan/kg, down 61 yuan [2] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings are 1052.70 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings are 15,409.46 tons, unchanged. - The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC are 168,327 contracts, up 8,458 contracts; the non - commercial net long positions of silver in CFTC are 24,673 contracts, up 2,792 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. - The US dollar index is 100.18, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.13%, up 0.05% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index is 31.05, up 3.61; the CBOE gold volatility index is 45.51, up 0.44. - The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price is 1.41, down 0.04; the gold - silver ratio is 66.44, up 0.21 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. The US vice - president says the US has no intention to stay in Iran. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues to be intense and stalemate, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the degree and frequency of air - raids on Tehran increasing. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of the US economic recession due to the continuous Middle - East conflict, soaring oil prices and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%, and Goldman Sachs has raised it to 30%. - A "weeks - long quick victory" ground - war plan of the US military in Iran is exposed, and the US Department of Defense is preparing for a weeks - long ground operation in Iran, with over 50,000 US troops in the Middle - East. - Trump will submit an annual budget request to the US Congress on April 3, seeking a significant increase in defense spending and a reduction in the scale of domestic institutions, with the proposed national security spending possibly reaching up to $1.5 trillion. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 2.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.9%. The probability of cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hikes by June is 8.8%, 50 - basis - point hikes is 0.1%, and keeping rates unchanged is 91.1% [2] 6. Key Points to Watch - March 31, 22:00, US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - March 31, 21:00, US January S&P House Price Index - April 1, 20:15, US March ADP Employment Number - April 1, 22:00, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI - April 2, 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 - April 2, 20:30, US February Trade Balance - April 3, 20:30, US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pricing logic of precious metals is complex. When geopolitical tensions rise, some funds reduce their positions in precious metals for liquidity management and profit - taking. When the market anticipates a potential easing of the Middle - East situation, a slowdown in oil price increases, and a decline in inflation expectations, gold and silver regain support. The current market seems to factor in the logic that if the Middle - East situation eases, the re - inflation pressure driven by oil prices may weaken, leading to a rebound in precious metals when both the dollar and interest rates decline. The market's dominant logic has shifted from geopolitical risk aversion to the re - pricing of a restrictive interest - rate environment. In the future, inflation expectations, hawkish central bank policies, strong oil prices, and a strong dollar are the main risk factors. However, if the global economic slowdown is confirmed and stagflation trading heats up, gold prices may still be supported. In the long - term, central bank gold purchases and supply constraints remain valid, and precious metals still have allocation value. Technically, the daily RSI of London gold and silver has rebounded from the oversold range, and the MACD green bar has converged. The short - term rebound may continue but with gradually weakening momentum. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and long - term funds can consider gradually building long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 995.980 yuan/gram, down 18.0 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 17,472 yuan/kilogram, down 639.00 yuan. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai Gold was 170,696.00 lots, up 1,164.00 lots; for Shanghai Silver, it was 37,336.00 lots, down 10,102.00 lots. The main contract's trading volume for Shanghai Gold was 291,301.00 lots, down 25,881.00 lots; for Shanghai Silver, it was 775,118.00 lots, down 192,810.00 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai Gold was 106,743 kilograms (unchanged); for Shanghai Silver, it was 370,299 kilograms, down 5,795 kilograms [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 991.36 yuan/gram, down 24.09 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 17,750.00 yuan, down 652.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.62 yuan/gram, down 6.11 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 278.00 yuan/gram, down 13.00 yuan [2] 3.3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,052.70 tons, down 4.29 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,513.67 tons, up 264.76 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC (weekly) were 159,869.00 contracts, down 3,263.00 contracts; for silver, they were 21,881.00 contracts, down 2,697.00 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. The US dollar index was 99.64, up 0.43; the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 2.02%, down 0.04% [2] 3.4. Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 25.33, down 1.62; the CBOE gold volatility index was 38.65, down 3.25. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 0.00, down 0.04; the gold - silver ratio was 62.38, down 0.69 [2] 3.5. Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation situation is unclear. Iran rejects the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House says the negotiation is ongoing and productive. Iranian officials deny the negotiation. Wall Street institutions raise the probability of a US economic recession due to the Middle - East conflict, rising oil prices, and labor - market structural weakness. Moody's analysis shows a 48.6% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, and Goldman Sachs raises the forecast to 30%. In February, US import prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since March 2022, and export prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, the largest since May 2022. A Fed official suggests the Fed should cut interest rates to a neutral level this year and raises the inflation forecast to 2.7% [2] 3.6. Key Events to Watch - March 25, 20:30: US February durable goods orders month - on - month; March 26, 20:30: US Q4 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value; March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21; March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index year - on - year/month - on - month; March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending month - on - month; March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The rebound of precious metal prices is mainly catalyzed by the cooling of liquidity concerns due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the market risk appetite has been significantly restored. However, geopolitical risks still exist, and the US does not seem to have the initiative to end the war at any time. If the US and Iran cannot reach an agreement on the armistice conditions, the possibility of conflict escalation cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will be mainly in a volatile pattern in the near future, and the Au2606 contract may fluctuate between 980 yuan/gram and 1060 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro logic to gold, and its price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2606 contract fluctuating between 17,500 yuan/kilogram and 18,500 yuan/kilogram [8][9] Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Iran's officials have denied the negotiation with the US. Iran has put forward five conditions for a ceasefire, including the enemy's cessation of "aggression and assassination", prevention of war recurrence, compensation, full end of military operations on all fronts, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Non-belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination, and COSCO Shipping Lines has resumed new booking business (ordinary containers) to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq [1] - Futures market: On March 25, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1013.96 yuan/gram, up 3.75% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1016.92 yuan/gram, up 0.29% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 16,900.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,111.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 967,928 lots, and the open interest was 214,737 lots. The night session closed at 18,000 yuan/kilogram, down 0.61% from the afternoon session [2] - US Treasury yields and spreads: On March 25, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.338%, up 0.79 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.451%, up 0.17 BP from the previous trading day [3] - Position and trading volume changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange: On March 25, 2026, on the Au2606 contract, the long position increased by 10,730 lots, and the short position increased by 1,662 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 529,275 lots, down 28.14% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2606 contract, the long position increased by 1,201 lots, and the short position increased by 2,174 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,496,495 lots, down 22.99% from the previous trading day [4] - Precious metal ETF holdings: The gold ETF holdings were 1,052.99 tons, up 0.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,514 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Precious metal arbitrage tracking: On March 25, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -21.27 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -716.96 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 55.99, down 2.12% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 63.16, down 0.40% from the previous trading day [6] - Fundamental data: On March 25, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 80,426 kilograms, down 8.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 456,886 kilograms, down 14.48% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With more news about US - Iran contact and negotiation, market panic has eased, core variable oil prices have not continued to rise significantly, and dollar liquidity tightening has also been alleviated, supporting the rebound of precious metal prices. However, as there is no substantial sign of easing in the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US is still deploying troops to the Middle East, the precious metal market may still fluctuate around geopolitical news in the short - term [4]. - In the short - term, as panic selling eases, precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and enter a wide - range shock. It is recommended to participate with a light position in the short - term. In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metal prices does not mean the end of the "bull market", and long - term support factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the US huge debt, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to get out of the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to grasp the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 25, 2026, London gold spot was $4547.63/ounce, London silver spot was $73.15/ounce, COMEX gold was $4546.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $73.29/ounce, AU2604 was 1011.04 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18174 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1010.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18100 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the price increases were 3.1%, 5.5%, 3.0%, 5.4%, 3.5%, 5.7%, 3.4%, and 6.3% respectively [3]. - Regarding price differences/ratios, on March 25, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 0.35 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 74 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external market (TD - London) price difference was - 189 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 55.63, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 62.04, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.92 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 63 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were - 229.6%, - 54.0%, - 1203.8%, - 37.0%, - 2.1%, - 2.3%, 15.9%, and - 42.7% respectively [3]. 2. Position Data - As of March 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.99 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 215961 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 56092 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 159869 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 31125 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 9244 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 21881 contracts. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were 0.03%, 0.00%, 0.24%, 7.22%, - 2.00%, - 6.55%, 5.91%, and - 10.97% respectively [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On March 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 376094.00 kilograms. Compared with March 24, 2026, the changes were 0.00% and 2.78% respectively. On March 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32016435 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 troy ounces. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05% and - 0.19% respectively [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89. On March 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.90%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, the VIX was 26.95, the S&P 500 was 6556.37, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.39. Compared with March 23, 2026, the changes were - 0.05%, 0.07%, 1.83%, 1.15%, 3.06%, - 0.37%, and - 0.54% respectively [3]. 5. Market Review - On March 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.55% to 1013.96 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.05% to 1811 yuan/kilogram [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metals will continue to play between geopolitical risks, inflation stickiness, and stagflation expectations. Inflation expectations, hawkish policies of major central banks, high oil prices, and a strong US dollar may limit the rebound. If the global economic slowdown is verified later, stagflation trading may support gold and silver. In the long - term, the logic of central bank gold purchases and supply constraints remains, and precious metals still have allocation value. It is expected to digest the gains through fluctuations in the short - term. Technically, the RSI and KD indicators of London gold and silver are in the oversold range, and the 30 - minute MACD golden cross indicates short - term rebound momentum. Short - term operations should be cautious, and long - term funds can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 977.28 yuan/gram, up 37.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 17,085 yuan/kilogram, up 1,674 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 54,345 lots, down 8,419 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 52,442 lots, down 3,386 lots [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 282,408 lots, down 104,014 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,247,893 lots, down 11,431 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 106,743 kilograms, down 3 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 365,923 kilograms, up 1,374 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 979.56 yuan, up 54.91 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 16,608 yuan, down 102 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.28 yuan/gram, up 17.63 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 477 yuan/gram, down 1,776 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,052.70 tons, down 4.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,513.67 tons, up 264.76 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.12, down 0.40; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.15, down 0.63; the CBOE gold volatility index was 43.36, up 8.11 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.47, up 0.05; the gold - silver ratio was 66.43, up 3.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US [2]. - A senior Iranian official said Trump had no right to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The two sides have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [2]. - Goldman Sachs said the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes it is too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy. He thinks the labor market is weak and advocates further interest rate cuts [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk to the US economy. He does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, there may be interest rate cuts later this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 24, 21:45: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value [2] - March 24, 22:00: US February new home sales annualized total [2] - March 24, 22:00: US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index [2] - March 25, 20:30: US February durable goods orders monthly rate [2] - March 26, 20:30: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value [2] - March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21 [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending monthly rate [2] - March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metal prices on March 23 was due to the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, which led to high oil prices and market concerns about interest rate hikes, causing a sell - off in the precious metal market. However, as the market panic eased at night, precious metal prices rebounded [6]. - In the short term, with the temporary alleviation of market panic, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize, but the market may remain highly volatile due to the unstable Middle - East geopolitical situation, so investors are advised to trade with light positions. In the long term, the long - term allocation value of gold still exists, and central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which can support precious metal prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On March 23, 2026, London gold spot was at $4211.63/ounce, London silver spot was at $62.72/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4215.50/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $62.96/ounce. Compared with March 20, 2026, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 9.8% - 9.9% and silver down about 12.2% - 12.5% [5]. - For domestic futures, AU2604 was at 940 yuan/gram and AG2604 was at 15498 yuan/kilogram on March 23, 2026, with a decline of about 9.5% and 12.5% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Spread/Ratio - On March 23, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.01 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 134 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 20, 2026, the spreads increased, with the gold spread up 40.3% and the silver spread up 148.1% [5]. - The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 60.65 and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 66.96 on March 23, 2026, with increases of 3.4% and 2.7% respectively compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, with a decrease of 0.48% compared to March 19, 2026. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, with an increase of 0.41% [5]. - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 215961 contracts, the short - position quantity was 56092 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 159869 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity increased by 0.24%, the short - position quantity increased by 7.22%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 2.00% [5]. - For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long - position quantity was 31125 contracts, the short - position quantity was 9244 contracts, and the net long - position quantity was 21881 contracts as of March 20, 2026. Compared with March 19, 2026, the long - position quantity decreased by 6.55%, the short - position quantity increased by 5.91%, and the net long - position quantity decreased by 10.97% [5]. Inventory Data - On March 23, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106746.00 kilograms, with a decrease of 0.09% compared to March 20, 2026. SHFE silver inventory was 364549.00 kilograms, with an increase of 0.57% [5]. - On March 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, with no change compared to March 19, 2026. COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, with a decrease of 0.59% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 23, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, with an increase of 0.21% compared to March 20, 2026 [5]. - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.51, with an increase of 0.33% compared to March 19, 2026. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, with an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.39%, with an increase of 3.29% [5]. - The VIX was 26.78 on March 20, 2026, with an increase of 11.31% compared to March 19, 2026. The S&P 500 was 6506.48, with a decrease of 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil was 98.09, with an increase of 3.70% [5]. Market Review - On March 23, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 8.62% to 940 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 11.67% to 15411 yuan/kilogram [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market sentiment continues to weaken. After gold and silver prices breached important thresholds, they continued their downward trend. The sharp correction of gold and silver in this round is mainly due to the dual pressure under the backdrop of global liquidity squeeze. In the short - term, the precious metal market will still revolve around the safe - haven sentiment under the US - Iran situation, the resilience of inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. In the medium - to - long - term, the long - term bullish logic for precious metals has not substantially reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will fluctuate in the short - term to digest previous overheated gains. Short - term operations should be cautious, while long - term funds can consider gradually building long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 940 yuan/gram, down 99.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 15,411 yuan/kilogram, down 2,214 yuan. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold was 386,422 lots, up 43,191 lots; that of Shanghai Silver was 1,259,324 lots, up 125,087 lots. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 62,764 lots, down 6,229 lots; those of Shanghai Silver were 55,828 lots, down 3,257 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 106,746 kilograms, down 99 kilograms; that of Shanghai Silver was 364,549 kilograms, up 2,054 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 924.65 yuan, down 116.94 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No. 1 silver was 16,710 yuan, down 1,690 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 15.35 yuan/gram, down 17.72 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 1,299 yuan/gram, up 524 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF were 1,056.99 tons, down 5.14 tons; the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF were 15,248.91 tons, up 61.97 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC were 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; those of silver were 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,302.8 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. The US dollar index was 99.51, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, up 0.13 [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.78, up 2.72; the CBOE gold volatility index was 35.25, up 4.20. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 63.04, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was down 2.96 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said he could talk to Iran but didn't want a cease - fire for now. The US Senate voted again to reject a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security, which has been shut down since February 14. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman expected three interest rate cuts this year due to concerns about a weak labor market. Fed Governor Waller said caution was needed in assessing the monetary policy direction, but might call for rate cuts later this year if the job market remained weak. Several European Central Bank officials sent hawkish signals, and central bank governors of Germany and Ireland said there might be an interest rate hike in April. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays revised their forecasts for the ECB's policy path, expecting 2 - 3 interest rate hikes this year. The Trump administration started preliminary consultations for "peace talks" with Iran through a third - party, and the US put forward a series of requirements [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - March 24: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value, US February new home sales annualized total, US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index; March 25: US February durable goods orders monthly rate; March 26: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21; March 27: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate, US February personal spending monthly rate, US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical situation, suppressing precious metal prices. However, in the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited, and long - term long positions can be considered for allocation [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On March 20, 2026, London gold spot was at $4673.91/ounce, London silver spot was at $71.68/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4675.70/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $71.70/ounce. Compared with March 19, the prices of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 1.9% and silver down about 0.8% - 4.0%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also declined, with AU2604 down 2.1% and AG2604 down 1.7% [3] - The price differences between domestic and foreign markets also changed significantly. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 104.3% from March 19 to March 20 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1056.99 tons, a decrease of 0.48% from March 19. The silver ETF - SLV was 15248.90453 tons, an increase of 0.41% [3] - For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the number of long positions increased by 0.24%, and the number of short positions increased by 7.22%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the number of long positions decreased by 2.00%, and the number of short positions increased by 5.91% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 20, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106845.00 kg, unchanged from March 19. The SHFE silver inventory was 362495.00 kg, a decrease of 0.65% [3] - The COMEX gold inventory was 32054275 troy ounces, unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory was 332695255 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.59% [3] 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.89, a decrease of 0.11% from March 19. The US dollar index was 99.51, an increase of 0.33% [3] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, an increase of 2.37%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, an increase of 3.29%. The VIX index increased by 11.31%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.51%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.70% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.83% to 1039.22 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 6.25% to 17625 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - Affected by the continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, oil prices remained high. The market traded the logic that "rising oil prices weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts", leading to a panic of interest rate hike expectations, a liquidity shock in the capital market, and a continuous sharp decline in precious metal prices [4] - The market generally expects the European and British central banks to raise interest rates 2 - 3 times this year. Traders on Friday evening expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October to be close to 50% and in December to be close to 100%. As a result, US Treasury yields rose significantly, and precious metal prices were further pressured [4] 7. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, as the Middle - East geopolitical situation shows no sign of easing, the trading of the weakening of the market's loose expectations for major global central banks may continue, and precious metal prices are expected to be under pressure [4] - In the long term, the allocation value of gold remains. Global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, the space for a significant decline in precious metal prices may be limited [4]