万科潜在的违约风险，引发了市场对银行可能承受损失的担忧。 万科的短期偿债压力较大。根据三季报，该公司一年内有息债务占比42.7%，即1513亿元，而同期 货币资金为656.8亿元，较年初减少25.5%，现金短债比进一步降至0.43。 2025.12. 02 本文字数：2624，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 方圆 万科债券展期风波持续发酵。万科将在12月10日召开债权人会议，对一笔20亿元中期票据"22万科 MTN004"的展期相关事项进行审议。目前初步方案浮出水面，但并未缓解外界对其债务问题的担 忧，12月2日，万科债券持续走低。 随着万科流动性紧张，市场担忧其潜在违约风险将波及主要合作银行。根据财报， 截至2025年上半 年末，万科有息债务规模已达3642亿元，其中超过2600亿元为银行贷款。 历史数据显示，万科的 银行借款高度集中于大型金融机构。 不过， 多数分析机构认为，此次事件对银行体系的整体冲击有限。 市场关注点正从系统性风险转向 个体银行所受影响的分化。 可能波及哪些银行？ 万科整体债务压力也不小。半年报显示，截至2025年6月30日，公司有息负债合计3642.6亿元，一 年内到期的有息 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke is facing significant liquidity pressure and potential default risks, leading to concerns about its impact on major partner banks, despite analysts suggesting limited systemic risk to the banking sector [1][10]. Group 1: Debt and Financial Position - Vanke will hold a creditor meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of a 2 billion yuan medium-term note, "22 Vanke MTN004," amid ongoing concerns about its debt issues [1]. - As of mid-2025, Vanke's interest-bearing debt reached 364.2 billion yuan, with over 260 billion yuan in bank loans, indicating a high concentration of borrowing from large financial institutions [1][10]. - The company's short-term debt pressure is significant, with 42.7% of its interest-bearing debt, amounting to 151.3 billion yuan, due within one year, while cash reserves have decreased by 25.5% to 65.68 billion yuan [2][10]. Group 2: Financing Channels and Costs - Vanke's financing structure includes 264.19 billion yuan in bank loans, 43.6 billion yuan in bonds, and 56.47 billion yuan in other borrowings, with a total interest-bearing debt of 364.26 billion yuan [2][4]. - The financing costs for bank loans range from 2.05% to SORA, while bonds have a cost range of 2.90% to 4.11% [4]. - Since 2023, Vanke has shifted its financing model from credit loans to secured loans, with 40 loan guarantee announcements made to meet operational needs [6]. Group 3: Impact on Banks and Market Sentiment - Concerns about Vanke's potential default have raised questions about which banks might be affected, with major lenders including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of China [5][10]. - Despite the risks, analysts believe the overall impact on the banking system is manageable, as Vanke's bank loans account for only 1.9% of total loans to real estate companies [10][12]. - Recent market reactions have shown significant volatility in Vanke's bonds, with several experiencing sharp declines, indicating a shift towards pricing based on high default probability [11][12].