2025.12. 08 本文字数：714，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 王方然 连续下跌多日后，万科多只债券今日集体反弹。 推荐阅读 银行国资轮番下场卖房 12月8日，万科6只境内债大涨，盘中触发临时停牌。截至发稿，"21万科06""22万科02""21万科 06"涨超36%，"21万科04""22万科04"涨超30%，"22万科06"涨27%。 万 科 的 股 价 仍 然 低 迷 。 截 至 发 稿 ， 万 科 A （ 000002.SZ ） 报 4.94 元 / 股 ， 下 跌 0.2% 。 万 科 企 业 （02202.HK）跌0.28%，报3.56港元/股。 消息面上，近期万科债券展期迎来新进展。12月5日盘后，万科在上清所发布了"22万科MTN004"第 一次持有人会议的议案概要，包含三个不同的中票展期方案。 "议案一"的方案为本金兑付时间展期12个月，调整后兑付时间为2026年12月15日，到期时偿付本期 中期票据全部本金。延期期间不计复利。展期期间（2025年12月15日至2026年12月15日）的票面 利率维持不变；议案二，要求展期前已经产生的利息正常兑付（即2025年12月15日兑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke is facing significant liquidity pressure and potential default risks, leading to concerns about its impact on major partner banks, despite analysts suggesting limited systemic risk to the banking sector [1][10]. Group 1: Debt and Financial Position - Vanke will hold a creditor meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of a 2 billion yuan medium-term note, "22 Vanke MTN004," amid ongoing concerns about its debt issues [1]. - As of mid-2025, Vanke's interest-bearing debt reached 364.2 billion yuan, with over 260 billion yuan in bank loans, indicating a high concentration of borrowing from large financial institutions [1][10]. - The company's short-term debt pressure is significant, with 42.7% of its interest-bearing debt, amounting to 151.3 billion yuan, due within one year, while cash reserves have decreased by 25.5% to 65.68 billion yuan [2][10]. Group 2: Financing Channels and Costs - Vanke's financing structure includes 264.19 billion yuan in bank loans, 43.6 billion yuan in bonds, and 56.47 billion yuan in other borrowings, with a total interest-bearing debt of 364.26 billion yuan [2][4]. - The financing costs for bank loans range from 2.05% to SORA, while bonds have a cost range of 2.90% to 4.11% [4]. - Since 2023, Vanke has shifted its financing model from credit loans to secured loans, with 40 loan guarantee announcements made to meet operational needs [6]. Group 3: Impact on Banks and Market Sentiment - Concerns about Vanke's potential default have raised questions about which banks might be affected, with major lenders including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of China [5][10]. - Despite the risks, analysts believe the overall impact on the banking system is manageable, as Vanke's bank loans account for only 1.9% of total loans to real estate companies [10][12]. - Recent market reactions have shown significant volatility in Vanke's bonds, with several experiencing sharp declines, indicating a shift towards pricing based on high default probability [11][12].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 信用风险扩散可控 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应：固定 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | ...

Market Performance - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to close at 3883.46 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.72%, closing at 12967.66 points [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.71%, ending at 3052.87 points [3] - The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.23%, closing at 4525.90 points [4] - The STAR 50 Index experienced a notable increase of 1.14%, closing at 1325.59 points [5] - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.89%, closing at 7012.95 points [6] - The CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.75%, closing at 7311.73 points [7] Sector Performance - The titanium dioxide, lithium mining, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and commercial aerospace sectors led the gains [1] - The pharmaceutical, banking, gaming, and tourism sectors experienced declines [1] - Notable stocks included Qian Zhao Guangdian, which hit the daily limit, and Hai Xin Food, which saw significant gains [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the morning session reached 983.7 billion [1] - Over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets were in the green [1] Debt Market - Vanke's bonds saw significant fluctuations, with a 20 billion yuan bond extension adding uncertainty to its future debt repayment outlook [13] - Some of Vanke's domestic bonds rebounded sharply, with "22 Vanke 02" rising by 120% and "21 Vanke 06" increasing by 107.8% [13] Analyst Insights - JPMorgan strategists indicated a higher probability of significant gains in the Chinese stock market next year compared to risks of a major downturn, upgrading A-shares to "overweight" [8]

Group 1 - The domestic bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, particularly the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.84% [2][3] - Concerns about the redemption of "fixed income +" funds and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations are contributing to market anxiety [2][4] - The recent debt extension issues faced by Vanke have negatively impacted market sentiment, primarily affecting credit bonds but also influencing interest rate bonds due to redemption pressures [2][5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the bond market's incremental positive factors are limited, and the direction of monetary policy remains unclear, leading to weak overall market sentiment [4][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been conducting net withdrawals in the open market, but overall liquidity remains ample, with a recent net injection of 564 billion yuan [4][5] - Expectations for interest rate cuts are diminishing, with analysts indicating that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December, it could provide more room for domestic rate cuts [6][7] Group 3 - The adjustment of banks' deposit structures, particularly the removal of 5-year fixed deposit products, may signal a shortening of the duration of bank liabilities, impacting their bond holding behavior [7][8] - The PBOC's emphasis on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is seen as a key reference for the trend of long-term bond yields [8]

股东借款已成为万科债券兑付的重要资金来源。根据披露，截至2025年11月2日，万科年内已偿付境内外债券本息约为 303.25亿元，深铁信用借款用于偿付债券本息165.22亿元，约占55%，另有一部分有担保借款也用于偿还公开债。 11月26日，万科债普遍下跌。截至发稿前，"21万科04""22万科02""22万科04"跌超20%，触发盘中临停，"21万科06""22万 科06"跌超14%，"21万科02"跌超10%。11月以来，万科境内债表现整体低迷，多日下跌。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | V | 涨跌幅 [单位]% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 149478.SZ | 21万科04 | > | | -20.15 | | 2 | 149815.SZ | 22万科02 | | | -20.11 | | 3 | 149931.SZ | 22万科04 | | | -20.01 | | 4 | 149568.SZ | 21万科06 | | | -17.04 | | 5 | 149976.SZ | 22万科06 | | | -14.03 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The bond market is experiencing narrow - range fluctuations, with long - term bonds performing slightly better. After a wave of recovery in bond market sentiment following major events such as the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, the market may enter a stalemate phase in the short term as the news becomes stable [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The bond market shows narrow - range fluctuations, with most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures declining. The 30 - year main contract drops 0.11%. The inter - bank market has a loose capital supply, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions slightly decreases and stabilizes around 1.31%. Most Vanke bonds fall, with "22 Vanke 04" and "21 Vanke 06" dropping over 2% [2]. - **Funding**: On November 3, the central bank conducts 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds is 259 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The main basis of TS is - 0.0397, TF is - 0.0523, and T is - 0.0002, indicating that the spot bonds are at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The main basis of TL is 0.2246, indicating that the spot bonds are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trend**: The main contracts of TS, TF, and T are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The main contract of TS has a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of TF also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of T has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. - **Expectations**: The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below expectations and still below the boom - bust line. In September, the CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI has expanded for 5 consecutive months. The new social financing in September is slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate has expanded. The LPR remains unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [4]. 3.2 Quotes of Main Contracts | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.680 | 0.01% | 65,902 | 243,868 | 1,313 | 250018.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 106.050 | - 0.01% | 52,682 | 151,286 | 1,862 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.516 | - 0.03% | 24,640 | 71,166 | - 1,209 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.51 | - 0.11% | 98,827 | 137,774 | - 4,976 | 210005.IB | [7] 3.3 Spot Bond Analysis The report presents the DR interest rate, the maturity yield of inter - bank treasury bonds, and the term spread of treasury bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [8][11][12] 3.4 Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trend charts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [14][19][20]