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债券研究周报:信用债ETF在增持哪些债券?-20251116
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-16 14:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency disclosure of the PCF list of ETF funds makes it have the potential to observe the actual holdings. Although there are some limitations, it has reference value [4][11]. - When using the PCF list to observe the actual holdings of ETFs, there is an implicit assumption of full - position allocation, and the actual positions of ETFs may not be fully occupied, but the overall deviation is within 10% [6][13]. - Since October, 18 credit bonds have been increased in holding by ETFs with a scale of over 500 million yuan, including 12 newly - listed bonds [6][11][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.1 Based on the Component Bond Holdings Observation of the PCF List - According to the information disclosure requirements of bond ETFs, the PCF list can be used as an approximate observation of the actual holdings of ETFs. When investors subscribe or redeem bond ETFs, they need to operate according to the PCF list [13]. - Using the PCF structure to simulate the actual holdings of ETFs implies the assumption of full - position allocation, but the actual positions of ETFs vary. For example, as of June 30, 2025, the proportion of bond assets in the fund assets of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs ranged from less than 80% to over 95% [13]. - Taking the top 5 holding bonds of a benchmark - making credit bond ETF as an example, the overall deviation between the estimated value and the actual value is within 10%, with 3 over - estimated, 1 under - estimated, and 1 accurately estimated [14]. 1.2 Which Bonds Have Been Increased in Holding by Bond ETFs Recently? - Since the second batch of science - innovation bonds were listed, the scale of credit bond ETFs has reached a phased high. Without new scale, the adjustment behavior of bond ETFs on component bonds has reference value for investors [18]. - Based on the observation results of the PCF list, the holding amount and its changes of each bond can be calculated. From October, 18 credit bonds have been increased in holding by ETFs with a scale of over 500 million yuan, including 12 newly - listed bonds and 6 bonds listed before October [18][19].