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债券波动原因
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每日钉一下(债券也有牛熊市吗,其波动原因是什么?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-12-05 13:50
Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of diversifying investments across both RMB and foreign currency assets, as well as stocks and bonds, highlighting the role of US dollar bond funds in this strategy [2] - It mentions that there is a free course available that systematically introduces investment knowledge related to US dollar bond funds [2] Group 2 - The article explains that bonds do experience bull and bear markets, typically cycling every 3-5 years, with specific periods identified: Q4 2016 to early 2018 was a bear market, while 2018 to 2020 was a bull market, and similar patterns are noted for subsequent years [6] - It notes that the bond market has been relatively sluggish in the past year [7] - The article categorizes bonds by duration, indicating that short-term bonds have minimal volatility, with maximum drawdowns typically under 1%, and are less affected by bear markets [8] - Long-term bond funds are more susceptible to fluctuations during bull and bear markets, with a specific example of a 30-year treasury index fund experiencing a 5.5% drop in Q3 2025 [10] Group 3 - The recent volatility in the bond market is attributed to valuation changes, with long-term pure bonds seeing a decline in interest yields from 3%-4% in 2022 to around 1.6% in 2024, making them less attractive to investors [11] - Historical data suggests that a reasonable yield for a 10-year treasury bond is between 2%-3%, and yields significantly below this level make long-term pure bonds less appealing [11] - The article also references new regulatory proposals affecting fund sales, which may impact investor behavior regarding bond funds [11]