作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 2025 年以来 | | | 固收产品收益 | 含权债基>高等级同业存单指基>现金 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金> | | | 回顾 | 管理>短债基金>中长期借審 现金管理 > 中长期债基 近一个月,供给端"反内卷"和需求 | | | | 1 月偏强震荡,2 月-3 月中旬债市大幅回 端基建、民生政策落地,基本面修复 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | | 债市回顾 | 预期强化,市场风险偏好抬升,资金 | 旬小幅回调，6月回归震荡,7月以来有所回 | | | 面维持相对宽松。长债弱于短债，信 | | | | 用债弱于利率债。 | 调。 | | | | 1.财政部、税务总局明确自８月８日起,对新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券 | | 行业事件跟踪 | 利息收入恢复征收增值税。 | | | | | 2.近期多家头部保险公司宣布下调产品预定利率，将于 8 月 31 日前完成产品切换。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses strategies for investors to exit the market during a bull run while preserving profits and managing risks effectively [2][5]. Group 1: Exit Strategies - Gradual profit-taking method: Investors should set a safety line for their principal (e.g., recover principal when total assets reach 130% of the principal) and have profit targets (e.g., sell in batches when profits reach 50% or 100%) [3]. - Technical signal assistance: Investors should monitor key moving averages and chart patterns (e.g., M-top, head and shoulders) to identify potential market tops [3]. - Emotional indicators: Increased public discussion about the stock market and extreme optimism in broker reports can signal a market top [3]. Group 2: Options Hedging Strategies - Options can provide a form of insurance against market downturns, allowing investors to maintain exposure while limiting losses [4][14]. - The use of synthetic long positions (buying calls and selling puts) can help mitigate risks associated with ETF options trading [4]. - The debate exists regarding the effectiveness of options in slow-moving markets, where premium decay can significantly impact returns [4]. Group 3: Market Top Characteristics - Policy signals such as regulatory crackdowns and changes in monetary policy can indicate a market top [4]. - Large-scale selling by institutional investors and rising government bond yields are also warning signs [4]. - Structural performance issues, such as stagnation in brokerage stocks and a lack of broad market participation, can signal caution [4]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment Management - Common pitfalls include attempting to perfectly time the market top and the dangers of premature exits [5]. - Discipline is crucial; investors should wait for the right moment to re-enter the market after exiting [5]. - Acknowledging that profits can be made without trying to catch every market movement is essential for long-term success [5]. Group 5: Additional Strategies - Transitioning to defensive stocks and short-term bond funds can help lock in profits during uncertain market conditions [5]. - Preparing for extreme scenarios and maintaining a cautious approach can safeguard against potential downturns [5]. - The importance of having a clear trading plan and executing it rigorously is emphasized [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of increased taxes on newly issued bonds, particularly in the context of the current high valuation of RMB long-term pure bonds, indicating a potential bearish market ahead [3][5]. - It highlights that the increase in taxes and fees is often a qualitative signal of market cycles, suggesting caution when such news arises, as it may indicate that certain assets are overvalued [3][5]. - The article notes that the new tax policy will not immediately affect existing bonds, but the current valuation of RMB long-term pure bonds is not attractive from an investment perspective [5]. Group 2 - The impact on short-term bond funds is minimal due to their low volatility, making them less susceptible to the changes in tax policy [6]. - The article suggests that the fixed income plus (固收+) products will benefit from the situation, as they primarily allocate to pure bonds while also including some stocks and convertible bonds [7]. - There is a steady demand for stable investments, which is expected to flow into fixed income plus products as a result of reduced yields from deposits and long-term pure bonds [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the scale of pure - bond funds increased by nearly 100 billion yuan. Credit medium - and long - term bond funds showed outstanding performance in a volatile market, but the overall performance of pure - bond funds was inferior to the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, the expansion of pure - bond funds was hindered, and "Fixed Income +" funds became popular in the market [1]. - The scale of index funds increased significantly beyond the seasonal trend. Credit - based index bond funds witnessed explosive growth, while interest - rate based ones had a recovery. For medium - and long - term bond funds, the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew in scale, while the credit style declined. Short - term and medium - short - term bond funds ended three consecutive quarters of scale reduction [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1, the scale of pure - bond funds increased by nearly 100 billion yuan 3.1.1 Credit medium - and long - term bond funds showed outstanding performance in a volatile market - In Q1 2025, affected by multiple negative factors, the bond market was under pressure, and the yield center of pure - bond funds dropped significantly. In Q2, due to factors such as increased risk - aversion sentiment and abundant liquidity, the bond market strengthened, and the single - quarter yield center of pure - bond funds turned positive [11]. - The median return of pure - bond funds in H1 2025 was 0.76%, recovering the losses in Q1 but underperforming the same period in 2024 and 2023. Credit - style products were more popular, with the return center of medium - and long - term credit bond funds reaching 1.00%, leading other styles [1][14]. 3.1.2 The expansion of pure - bond funds was hindered, and "Fixed Income +" became popular in the market - The total scale of pure - bond funds increased from 9.50 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 9.59 trillion yuan in mid - 2025, with an increase of only 93.8 billion yuan. In contrast, the total scale of "Fixed Income +" funds increased by 256.9 billion yuan to 1.48 trillion yuan. The "market share" of pure - bond funds decreased by nearly 2 percentage points [18]. 3.1.3 Most of the top - tier fund managers saw an increase in scale - In H1 2025, 67 fund managers had positive scale growth, with 16 managers having a scale increase of over 10 billion yuan and 28 managers over 5 billion yuan. Among the 21 top - tier managers, 14 had a net scale increase, mainly in Q2 [23]. - Index - type bond funds quickly replaced medium - and long - term bond funds as the focus of fund managers. Among the 15 fund managers with rapid scale growth in Q2, index - type bond funds contributed 250.4 billion yuan, accounting for over 50% [2][28]. 3.2 By type, the scale growth of index funds was significantly beyond the seasonal trend 3.2.1 Index bond funds: credit - based ones had explosive growth, and interest - rate based ones had a recovery - In Q1 2025, due to the seasonal effect, the scale of index - type bond funds decreased by 92.6 billion yuan. In Q2, the scale increased by 308.3 billion yuan, reaching the highest level since 2019 [33]. - Credit - bond index funds grew rapidly, with a net increase of about 220 billion yuan in Q2, and their proportion in index - type bond funds rose from 12% at the end of Q1 to 24%. Policy - financial bond index funds had a recovery, but their proportion decreased from 71% to 60% [35]. 3.2.2 Medium - and long - term bond funds: the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew in scale, while the credit style declined - The medium - and long - term bond fund market was first depressed and then rebounded in H1 2025. The scale decreased by 394.6 billion yuan in Q1 and rebounded by 275.1 billion yuan in Q2 but did not fully recover the losses in Q1 [48]. - There was a significant style rotation in H1 2025. In Q1, funds flowed into credit - style products, while in Q2, the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew, and the credit style shrank. The main reason was the active adjustment of the holding structure of existing funds [48][49]. 3.2.3 Short - term and medium - short - term bond funds: ended three consecutive quarters of scale reduction - In Q2 2025, the scale of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds rebounded, ending the downward trend since Q3 2024. The scale of short - term bond funds increased by 17.1% to 545.5 billion yuan, and that of medium - short - term bond funds increased by 18.5% to 600.5 billion yuan [59]. 3.3 Appendix: Fund classification method - For the selection of the fund list each quarter, start from the initial funds of bond - type funds in the Wind first - level classification and partial - debt hybrid funds in the second - level classification. Eliminate funds that do not meet the requirements to ensure that they are pure - bond funds [67]. - Classify short - term and medium - short - term bond funds based on the full - name matching of fund products, investment scope, performance comparison benchmark, and weighted duration of heavy - position bonds. Classify medium - and long - term bond funds according to the bond - holding situation in the quarterly report and assign style labels [68].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid basic skills are essential for successful investment [2] - It provides a simple method to distinguish between long-term and short-term bond funds, highlighting the significance of fund abbreviations and the prospectus for accurate identification [3] Group 2 - The article encourages readers to engage with a dedicated section on foundational skills, indicating a resource for further learning [7]

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 744 billion to CNY 30.92 trillion during the week of July 28 to August 1[1] - In July, the total growth was only CNY 2,469 billion, significantly lower than the historical average of over CNY 10 trillion for the same month[1] - The decline in scale is attributed to ongoing net value decreases and redemption pressures, with short-term and medium-term debt products experiencing maximum drawdowns of 8bp and 6bp respectively[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank market decreased from 107.41% to 107.34% during the week of July 28 to August 1[3] - Non-bank institutions saw a rebound in leverage rates, increasing from 112.10% to 112.34%[3] - Exchange leverage rates also declined slightly from 122.47% to 122.43% during the same period[3] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds decreased from 5.49 years to 5.45 years[4] - Credit bond fund duration reached a historical high of 2.81 years, up from 2.78 years[4] - Short and medium-term bond fund durations decreased to 1.01 years and 1.65 years respectively[4] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - The planned issuance of government bonds increased to CNY 5,785 billion for the week of August 4-8, up from CNY 5,174 billion[47] - Net issuance of government bonds rose from CNY 2,876 billion to CNY 3,390 billion, primarily due to a significant increase in national bond net issuance[47] - Local government bond issuance for the week of July 28 to August 1 was CNY 3,372 billion, with a net issuance of CNY 2,360 billion[50]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that mutual funds should not be viewed as a "get-rich-quick" scheme, highlighting the difference between historical performance and future expectations [5][6] - It suggests categorizing funds into three circles: liquid funds for immediate needs, stable funds for short-term savings, and long-term investment funds for future goals [6][7] - The recommended initial investment strategy is to focus on broad index funds like the CSI 300 and to adopt a regular investment plan (dollar-cost averaging) to mitigate risks [10] Group 2 - The article advises setting a stop-loss threshold to manage investment risks, suggesting a pause in investment if losses exceed 15% [11] - It encourages investors to invest in educational resources before committing significant funds to mutual funds, promoting a gradual investment approach [14][15] - The overall message is to adopt a patient and disciplined investment strategy, emphasizing that slow and steady growth is more sustainable than chasing quick profits [15]

Group 1: Fund Analysis - The public FOF fund scale increased in Q2 2025, with significant growth from major fund companies like Southern, Dongfanghong, and Bosera, while Xingsheng Global remains the largest [7][9] - Over 90% of FOF funds recorded positive returns, with Shenwan Lingshin Zhihua's stable allocation strategy achieving the highest performance over three months [7][10] - Fund managers are optimistic about the equity market, focusing on structural opportunities rather than index performance, with technology growth expected to be a key theme [7][13] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies to boost consumption and investment, while ensuring employment and price stability [15][16] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, exceeding the growth target, with the IMF raising China's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8% [15][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining liquidity and supporting sectors like technology innovation and small businesses to stimulate economic growth [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income Market - In June 2025, the total bond custody volume increased slightly, with insurance companies increasing their holdings in local government bonds while trusts reduced their exposure to exchange-traded bonds [22][24] - Commercial banks and broad-based funds increased their holdings in interest rate bonds, while reducing their investments in certificates of deposit [24][26] - The bond market is expected to face redemption pressure, but the attractiveness of the bond market may support demand from insurance and banking sectors [26] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - WuXi AppTec's H1 2025 revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a 20.64% increase, with net profit growing by 101.92% due to asset disposals [28][30] - The company anticipates revenue growth of 10.3%, 15.3%, and 15.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit expected to grow significantly in 2025 [30][31] - WuXi's strong order backlog of 56.69 billion yuan reflects a 37.2% year-on-year increase, indicating robust demand across its business segments [28][30] Group 5: Communication Sector - Weisheng Information reported stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 1.368 billion yuan, up 11.88%, and net profit of 305 million yuan, up 12.24% [32][34] - The company has emphasized shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks, maintaining a commitment to a 40% dividend payout ratio over the next five years [34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in a low-interest-rate environment, short-term bond funds are emerging as a new investment option for wealth management, despite challenges in generating stable returns in a "micro-profit" bond market [1][2] - Short-term bond funds are becoming increasingly popular as bank one-year fixed deposit rates fall below 1%, and money market fund yields have also entered the "1 era" [2] - The historical opportunity for short-term bond funds is highlighted by the observation of the Japanese market, where a drop in 10-year government bond yields led to significant growth in short-term bond funds [2] Group 2 - The core advantages of short-term bonds are identified as "three lows": low duration, low volatility, and low credit risk, making them suitable for risk-averse investors [2] - The importance of controlling drawdowns is emphasized as a critical factor for bond funds, particularly short-term products [3][5] - The risk control strategy of the fixed income team includes duration management, holding structure, and portfolio diversification to mitigate market volatility [4] Group 3 - The focus is shifting from single yield assessments to risk-reward ratios, Sharpe ratios, and the sustainability of monthly positive returns, reflecting a balanced approach to risk and return [5] - The trading ability in bond investments is becoming increasingly important in a low-interest-rate and credit expansion environment, with strategies such as reverse trading and interest rate arbitrage being employed [6] - Future market outlook suggests a moderate economic recovery with continued monetary policy easing, while certain industry bonds are expected to have improved safety due to changes in supply and demand dynamics [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products in the context of the bond market, highlighting the stability of short-term interest rates and the potential for credit bonds to outperform interest rate bonds in the near future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Review of Fixed Income Product Returns - In the past month, the bond market experienced low volatility with positive returns across various fixed income products. The leading performance was observed in rights-embedded bond funds, followed by medium to long-term bond funds [3][8]. - As of July 17, the returns for different products over the past month were: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.89% (previously 0.54%), medium-term bond funds at 0.22% (previously 0.31%), short-term bond funds at 0.19% (unchanged), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.17% (previously 0.15%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has shown low volatility with mixed performance between short and long-term bonds. The market sentiment improved due to "anti-involution" policies and the delayed imposition of tariffs by the U.S., which bolstered optimistic expectations [10][11]. - The liquidity in the banking sector was relatively relaxed, with the central bank's actions leading to a slight decrease in short-term interest rates. The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.63% [11][15]. Industry Events Tracking - On July 11, the National Financial Supervision Administration released the "Financial Institutions Product Suitability Management Measures," effective from February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and regulating financial institutions' suitability management [37]. Outlook for the Bond Market - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate of deposit rates, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [1][31]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to perform better than interest rate bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced duration strategy and considering high-grade long-term credit bonds for potential gains [1][40]. Fixed Income Product Strategy and Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products is advisable, while for conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended [40][41]. - For more aggressive investors, the article suggests considering fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, with strategies such as quantitative neutral, index enhancement, and multi-asset approaches [42].