Workflow
债券牛熊市
icon
Search documents
每日钉一下(债券也有牛熊市吗,其波动原因是什么?)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-12-05 13:50
文 | 银行螺丝钉 (转载请注明出处) 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金,想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产,也想要覆盖股票资产和债券类资产。 美元债就是其中的重要一环,那么美元债券基金该如何投资? 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程,系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 想要获取这个课程,可以添加下方「课程小助手」,回复「 美元债 」领取哦~ 更有课程笔记、思维导图,帮您快速搞懂课程脉络,学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 债券也有牛熊市吗,其波动原因 是什么? 2025年11月下旬,债券市场出现了比较 大的波动。 有朋友问,债券有牛熊市吗? 债券也是有牛熊市的,平均3-5年一轮。 例如: •最近一年债券又比较低迷。 这里债券牛熊市,通常是说长期纯债。 按债券期限划分:1年以内为短债;1-3 年以内为中短债;3-5年为中债;5-10年 为长债;10年以上为超长债。 期限比较短的,例如短债基金,波动很 小,通常最大回撤在1%以内,这类债券 不太受债券熊市的影响,2025年短债还 是上涨的。 短债更多的是作为短期资金管理工具。 受债券牛熊市影响比较大的,主要是长 债基金,越是长期债券,在债券牛熊市 中波动越大。例如,30年期国债指 ...
[11月27日]指数估值数据(债券基金下跌,原因为何;红利指数估值表更新)
银行螺丝钉· 2025-11-27 13:48
Market Overview - The overall market showed slight fluctuations, with the index remaining at 4.3 stars [1] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a minor decline [2] - Small-cap stocks saw a slight increase [3] - Value styles, including dividend stocks, experienced a slight rise [4] - The ChiNext index initially rose by 2% but closed lower [5] - Hong Kong stocks showed a slight increase [6] - This week, stock assets overall increased, while the bond market experienced significant volatility [7] Bond Market Insights - Bonds also experience bull and bear markets, typically cycling every 3-5 years [9] - Recent historical examples include: - Q4 2016 to early 2018: bond bear market - 2018 to 2020: bond bull market - 2020-2021: bond bear market - 2022-2024: bond bull market - The past year has seen a downturn in bonds [10][11] - Bonds are categorized by duration: - Short-term bonds (up to 1 year) - Medium-short bonds (1-3 years) - Medium bonds (3-5 years) - Long bonds (5-10 years) - Ultra-long bonds (over 10 years) [12] - Short-term bonds have low volatility, typically with a maximum drawdown of less than 1% [12] - Long-term bonds are more affected by market cycles, with a 30-year treasury index fund dropping 5.5% in Q3 [17] Current Bond Market Conditions - The yield on long-term pure bonds has decreased from 3-4% in 2022 to around 1.6% in 2024, making them less attractive to investors [21] - The recent decline in long-term bonds is attributed to high valuations and low returns [21] - The recent draft of new fund sales regulations may impact bond funds significantly, as redemption fees could take a substantial portion of returns [21][22] - The investment value of bond funds is currently mixed: - Short-term bond funds are suitable for short-term management [21] - Long-term pure bond funds are less appealing unless yields return to 2-3% [21] - "Fixed income plus" funds, which combine bonds and equities, remain a viable option [21] Investment Strategies - New fixed income plus index funds are expected to be launched soon, suitable for ordinary investors [22][26] - These funds will have fixed stock-bond ratios, such as 10:90, 15:85, and 20:80 [24] - The current market conditions suggest that fixed income plus strategies still hold investment value [28] Valuation Insights - A valuation table for dividend and free cash flow indices has been compiled for reference [36] - The valuation metrics include earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, dividend yield, and return on equity [39] - The valuation table indicates various indices, with some showing undervaluation suitable for investment [44]