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高盛称5年期美债收益率已触及2021年来最极端水平!美联储需降息至零方能修复?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 00:35
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategy team highlights that the valuation level of the five-year U.S. Treasury bonds is historically rare unless the Federal Reserve lowers the benchmark interest rate to zero [1] - As of Wednesday, the five-year Treasury yield stands at 3.78%, close to the high range since early 2022 when the Fed's policy rate was at zero [1] - The relative value assessment model indicates that the yield on five-year bonds is at a historically high level, with the current result of the butterfly spread model approaching -100 basis points, reaching the lower limit of the volatility range since early 2021 [1] Group 2 - The valuation phenomenon is closely related to market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of Fed rate cuts, which are difficult to sustain in the long term [4] - Since the beginning of the year, the market has increasingly priced in short-term rate cuts, expecting a larger cumulative reduction [4] - The five-year Treasury bond has been the best-performing segment this year, supported by rate cut expectations, while long-term bonds face upward yield risks due to persistent inflation and expanding U.S. budget deficits [4] Group 3 - Data shows that since the end of last year, the five-year Treasury yield has declined by 60 basis points, while the two-year yield has decreased by 52 basis points, and the thirty-year yield has remained nearly unchanged [4] - This further highlights the relative advantage of mid-term bonds under the influence of rate cut expectations [4]