来源：市场资讯 （来源：FOF老码头） 回顾这一年，全球资本市场并非在一条叙事路径上展开，而是在剧烈的叙事切换中寻找平衡。从年初 对"特朗普经济学"的盲目押注，到年终对AI资本回报率的质疑；从美元信用的动摇，到黄金与白银史诗 级行情的爆发。市场在这一年里，深刻地体验了从"美国例外论"的幻灭到"资产再平衡"的颠簸过程。 第三季度：非理性繁荣与双轨制经济 第三季度市场动荡展示了全球经济与市场的不确定性，从AI信仰的狂热到降息的预期落地，从股市的 投机热潮到黄金的避险需求，市场呈现出多重背离的态势。一些投资者在宽松政策和技术繁荣的支持 下，疯狂追逐科技股，而黄金和债市则成为了"聪明资金"的避风港。随着美联储降息的实施和AI产业链 的持续扩张，市场或将迎来新一轮的调整和再平衡，未来的市场将充满更多不确定性和波动性。 7月：脱敏与亢奋 市场进入了一个非理性的"亢奋期"。尽管非农数据表现强劲，削弱了市场对美联储降息的紧迫预期，但 股市依旧在AI龙头公司的引领下，强势反弹。投资者对关税风险的敏感性减弱，尤其是在特朗普与欧 盟、日本达成贸易协议后，市场投机情绪升温。即使在全球贸易环境尚存不确定性，许多投资者依然处 于高度乐观 ...

据汇丰策略师Herald van der Linde和Joey Chew在1月13日发布的报告，基于中国推行的产业升级、技术 自立以及人民币国际化等议程，预计人民币或将缓慢而稳定的升值。汇丰建议"卖出瑞郎，买入离岸人 民币"，并将瑞郎、美元、欧元和日元列为潜在的融资货币。 与此同时，汇丰调整了对亚洲其他市场的配置建议，建议减持由于人工智能热潮而变得拥挤的韩国股 市，转而超配中国内地、香港、印度和印尼的股票。该行认为，尽管AI和降息将是2026年亚洲市场的 主要驱动力，但财政压力和拥挤交易意味着这一年市场表现将不会平稳。 汇丰还特别提到，虽然部分亚洲央行具备降息空间以提振股市，但美联储降息步伐的放缓可能会限制这 一空间的释放。投资者接下来将重点评估AI驱动型增长的可持续性，以及股市交易过度拥挤带来的风 险。 增持中国与印尼，减持韩股 在股票策略方面，汇丰建议投资者采取防御性更强、更注重内需的配置思路。策略师们建议对中国内 地、香港、印度和印尼的股票保持"超配（Overweight）"评级。报告指出，印度和印尼因其盈利增长潜 力和政策支持而在该地区脱颖而出。 相比之下，汇丰对出口导向型市场持谨慎态度，建议对韩国和 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 美元债双周报（26 年第 2 周） 弱于大市 美国经济数据分化加剧，财政主导风险升温 美国 12 月非农就业增 5 万不及预期，年度增幅创疫情后最弱，就业数据拖 累降息预期。美国 12 月非农就业人数仅增加 5 万人，低于预期的 6.5 万， 且前两个月数据合计下修 7.6 万人，导致全年新增就业仅为 58.4 万人， 创疫情以来最低水平。尽管失业率从 4.5%降至 4.4%，薪资同比增长 3.8%， 但劳动力参与率下降表明就业市场的改善并不稳固。这份疲弱的就业报 告发布后，利率互换市场对美联储 1 月降息的预期几乎完全消失，预计 首次降息将推迟至 6 月，全年降息幅度约为 50 个基点。我们认为失业 率意外下降暂时缓解了劳动力市场的担忧，支持美联储在 1 月会议保持 观望态度。 美国 12 月制造业 PMI 持续萎缩，服务业回暖。12 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 跌至 47.9，连续第十个月低于荣枯线 50，显示制造业持续收缩且降幅 为近年来最大。新订单和出口订单持续萎缩，尽管就业指标降幅收窄， 成本压力依旧高企。相比之下，服务业表现强劲，ISM 服务业 PMI ...

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are preparing for a highly volatile "Super Friday," with significant events that could reshape short-term pricing logic in the bond, stock, and commodity markets [1]. Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December will be released at 21:30 Beijing time, serving as a crucial reference for assessing economic health and influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3]. - Economists predict a job increase of 70,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5% [6]. Federal Reserve Policy - The non-farm payroll data is viewed as a "deciding hammer" for the Fed's policy, with a weak report potentially increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in January to 50% [6]. - Current market pricing indicates only a 10% chance of a rate cut this month, with the next expected in June [6]. Supreme Court Ruling - The market is closely watching the Supreme Court's decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which could have a binary effect on the stock and bond markets [7]. - If tariffs are overturned, the S&P 500 could rise by 0.75%-1%, while maintaining tariffs could lead to a decline of 30-50 basis points [7][8]. Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is facing a "double storm" with the upcoming results of the "232 clause" tariff investigation and significant index rebalancing trades [2][10]. - The annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has begun, with an expected influx of approximately $7.7 billion in silver sell orders, equating to 13% of total COMEX silver open interest [12]. Market Reactions - Analysts warn that the combination of tariff rulings and commodity market adjustments could lead to extreme volatility, particularly in precious metals like palladium and silver [10][12]. - The potential for a liquidity vacuum could trigger severe repricing in the market, with differing views on whether prices will continue to rise or face significant downward risks once liquidity improves [12][13].

作者 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 资金面宽松带动短债走强，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.12.22-2025.12.28） 核心观点 1.83%-1.88%区间内震荡运行，同时，跨年资金好转有望 支撑短债延续偏强态势，收益率曲线或进一步走陡。 分析师 瞿瑞 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 部门执行总监 冯琳 2025 年 12 月 29 日 上周债市延续震荡格局，收益率曲线陡峭化程度加深。 上周一（12 月 22 日）公布的 12 月 LPR 报价维持不变， 市场宽松预期边际降温，债市随之小幅调整。周二起， 配置盘逐步入场，叠加 MLF 超量续作支撑年末资金面平 稳宽松，进而带动中短债大幅走强，并部分传导至长端。 不过，由于股市上涨，股债跷跷板效应显现，长债表现 受到一定压制。总体上看，上周债市整体震荡，中短债 收益率大幅下行，长债收益率则小幅上行，收益率曲线 进一步陡峭化。 本周（12 月 29 日当周）债市预计维持震荡运行。年末 债市未出现季节性集中抢配行情，一方面源于债的性价 比仍低于股，另一方面也因一季度开门红、股市春季躁 动以及财政发力的预期，导致机构对明年初债市判断 ...

| | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 12月19日 | 12月26日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.19 | 1. 1057 | -8. 43 | | 0.08 | 1. 2437 | 1. 1901 | -5. 36 | | 0. 17 | 1.3336 | 1.248 | -8.56 | | 0. 25 | 1.35 | 1. 3053 | -4. 47 | | 0.5 | 1.35 | 1. 3185 | -3.15 | | 0. 75 | 1.3519 | 1.2872 | -6. 47 | | 1 | 1.3547 | 1.2872 | -6. 75 | | 2 | 1. 3752 | 1. 3378 | -3.74 | | 3 | 1.3941 | 1. 3627 | -3.14 | | 5 | 1.6021 | 1.5948 | -0. 73 | | 7 | 1.7258 | 1. 7033 | -2. 25 | | 10 | 1.8308 | 1.8376 | 0.68 | | I E | 2. 114 ...

北京时间12月22日亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4346美元/盎司附近。市场分析人士认为，对于美联储2026年降息的预期 持续升温，以及随着圣诞假期和新年假期的临近，地缘不确定性增加，为金价提供支撑。 《联合早报》近日发文称，今年以来，金属市场经历动荡的一年，但也取得可观回报，其中，黄金继续巩固其多年的 上涨行情，取得65%的显著涨幅。 根据Kitco News 2026年度金属市场调查显示，交易者对黄金保持着强劲支持。参与调查的352人中，有29%预测黄金将 成为2026年涨幅最大的金属，另外还有51%受访者看好白银，预计它将在来年领涨所有金属。 道明证券（TD Securities）分析报告指出，较低的利率、持续的货币贬值、供应侧因素和多元化需求将推动黄金在 2026年上半年创下超过4400美元的新高。道明证券全球大宗商品策略主管梅莱克（Bart Melek）认为："美国联邦储备 局主导的降息举措，将让黄金持有成本降低，加上预期的收益率曲线陡峭化，以及对美联储独立性的潜在担忧，促使 我们认为黄金将在2026年上半年创下每盎司4400美元的季度新高。" ...

Group 1: Silver Fund Premium - The only silver fund in China has reached a historical high premium of 12%, indicating that investors are buying at a price higher than the actual asset value [9][10] - The fund manager has issued multiple warnings about the risks of blindly purchasing high-premium fund shares, suggesting potential significant losses for investors [7][10] - Investors in the silver fund need the silver price to increase by at least 12% to make a profit, or find someone willing to buy at a higher price, otherwise, they face compounded losses [10] Group 2: Yield Curve Steepening - The yield curve is becoming steeper, meaning that long-term interest rates are rising faster than short-term rates, which poses risks for long-term bond fund investors [11][16] - The recent steepening of the yield curve is attributed to an increase in long-term debt issuance and a shift in investment focus towards the stock market, leading to a gradual rise in interest rates [18] - The current economic policy outlook suggests that the steepening trend in the yield curve may continue, indicating a potential for long-term interest rates to rise further [18] Group 3: Market Imbalances - Both the silver fund and the bond market reflect structural imbalances that could lead to value corrections, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying causes of market distortions [20] - The silver fund's popularity is influenced by external factors such as trade conflicts, while the bond market's previous low rates were a result of supply shortages during an asset scarcity period [20] - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential pricing bubbles driven by market distortions, especially when many retail investors are involved [20]

Devlin说："如果政府在实施投资计划方面能够取得任何成效，那么供给要么来自政府，要么来自私营 部门，但政府会提供补贴。"这意味着长期债券收益率的上升速度将快于短期利率，或者下降速度将慢 于短期利率，从而导致收益率曲线变陡。 该公司还对加拿大5年期国债进行了"策略性"交易，此前公布的经济数据出人意料地强劲，导致加拿大5 年期国债价格大幅下跌。Devlin称："就在过去两周，加拿大5年期国债的价格曲线变得异常便宜。" Devlin曾在太平洋投资管理公司工作近15年，于2020年离职并创立了自己的公司。上个月，Devlin Capital获得了其首个资产管理客户，即加拿大帝国商业银行委托其担任CIBC加拿大固定收益私募股权 基金的子顾问。 智通财经APP获悉，加拿大基金管理公司Devlin Capital正在为北美两大经济体收益率曲线进一步陡峭化 做好准备，因为美国和加拿大政府为了支付减税、军事项目和其他优先事项，都出现了巨额预算赤字。 该公司创始人Ed Devlin曾任太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)加拿大投资组合管理主管，他表示，即便两国 央行都采取宽松的货币政策，两国仍将迎来长期债券发行热潮。美联储周三再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has experienced a significant decline, dropping below the 4% mark, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy direction [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In November, the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated between 4.1% and 4.2% before rapidly declining in late November [1][2] - The market is currently pricing in an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be cautious due to the lack of key economic data, which may lead to a short-term rebound in Treasury yields [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a weakening trend, with consumer spending declining and manufacturing facing cost pressures due to tariffs [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported mixed economic activity across its districts, with some showing slight declines [3] - Concerns about a potential recession are rising as labor market conditions show signs of fatigue [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Treasury yield will continue to be influenced by monetary policy expectations, economic fundamentals, inflation outlook, and risk sentiment [4] - The Federal Reserve's end of quantitative tightening and reinvestment in short-term Treasury bills may provide new demand for the bond market [6] - The yield curve may steepen in the future due to ongoing issuance pressures in the long-term bond market, while short-term yields may remain stable due to Federal Reserve demand [7]