【导读】美联储降息 几 成定局，利好全球及中国股市 ； 降息幅度现分歧，人事变动引关注 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 北京时间9月17日凌晨，美联储将公布联邦公开市场委员会（以下简称FOMC）议息会议的最 终结果。记者梳理了全球机构投资者当前最关心的几个问题，以飨读者。 降息25个基点还是50个基点？ 目前看， 尽管美联储将时隔9个月重启降息已无悬念，但对于降息幅度，机构投资者仍有分 歧。 摩根大通全球投资策略师费德里科·奎瓦斯 （ Federico Cuevas ） 发布报告表示，最新的就 业数据使美联储保持在降息的轨道上，鉴于招聘持续降温，降幅很可能是25个基点。 英格兰德 指出，如果FOMC决定只降息25个基点，米兰、沃勒（Waller）和鲍曼 （Bowman）可能会 提出 异议。如果降息50个基点，即使对后续降息不做承诺，鹰派也可 能提出异议。如果FOMC降息50个基点并转向数据依赖，假设鲍威尔处于多数地位，只有少 数坚定的鹰派会持异议。这次的鹰派异议可能来自堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）、圣 路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆（Musalem）或芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Goolsbee）。 英格兰德认为，鲍威 ...

此外，因美国经济正面临周期性与结构性双重压力，安联仍确信收益率曲线趋陡;虽然该行已于夏季适 时进行部分获利平仓。外汇方面，安联认为美元持续面临周期性增长与结构性阻力，这强化了安联短仓 美元兑一篮子货币的看法。 在9月16日及17日美联储议息会议前，安联投资全球固定收益首席投资总监Michael Krautzberger发表评 论，重点如下：安联预期美联储将于本周会议上宣布减息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至4% 至4.25%。目前短期利率市场几乎已完全反映今年最后三次美联储会议均减息的可能性，对比今夏初时 市场仅预期一次减息。美国就业市场疲弱将支持近期改变的减息预期;通胀数据持续高于预期的可能性 将是未来唯一可扰乱利率预期的因素。 该行相信，未来美联储政策预测中最大的变量，可能是特朗普政府对美联储日益增强的制度性压力。特 朗普正开始更强硬地推动改变美联储理事会的组成;同时已提出一份倾向促进经济增长的候选人名单， 以在2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满时接替美联储主席职位。因此，未来数月内，短期利率市场或会进一步 下调联邦基金利率的终点预期，远低于当前长期中性利率预测的3%。 安联对美国收益率曲线和美元的核心观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a potential interest rate hike if economic growth and prices align with the central bank's outlook, leading to a significant sell-off in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy - Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan would consider raising interest rates if the economic and price conditions improve as projected [2][3]. - The central bank maintained its policy rate in July but raised its forecast for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fiscal year 2025 [3]. - The Deputy Governor, Masayoshi Amamiya, indicated that continuing to raise interest rates is an appropriate policy choice given the improving economic and price conditions [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Ueda's comments, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.88%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropped by 1.1% [3]. - The Japanese government bond market experienced a severe sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.29% [1][4]. - The U.S. and U.K. also saw their long-term bond yields rise, with the U.S. 30-year yield surpassing 5% for the first time since July 18, and the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since May 1998 [1][6]. Group 3: Political Context and Investor Sentiment - The political instability surrounding Prime Minister Kishida's government, including resignations from key party officials, has raised concerns about increased government spending and potential fiscal discipline loosening [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the market is weighing the possibility of either Kishida proposing generous spending plans or a new leader implementing expansionary fiscal policies, both of which could lead to a more accommodative fiscal environment [5]. - The upcoming auction of Japan's 30-year bonds is viewed as a critical test of investor confidence amid these developments [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a potential interest rate hike if economic growth and prices align with projections, leading to significant market reactions [2][5]. Market Reactions - Following Ueda's comments, the Japanese stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by 0.88% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index falling by 1.1% [6]. - The Japanese government bond market faced intense selling, with the 30-year bond yield reaching 3.29%, marking a historical high [8][10]. Economic Context - Ueda emphasized that the Bank of Japan would consider raising interest rates if the economic and price conditions improve as projected in July's outlook [5][6]. - The meeting between Ueda and Prime Minister Kishida was the first since February, where they discussed economic and market conditions [4][5]. Government and Political Dynamics - The political landscape is unstable, with several key figures in Kishida's government expressing intentions to resign, increasing pressure on the Prime Minister [8][10]. - Analysts suggest that the weakened government could lead to increased fiscal spending, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and investor sentiment [10]. Global Bond Market Trends - The sell-off in Japan's bond market reflects broader global trends, with U.S. and U.K. long-term bond yields also reaching multi-year highs [12]. - The upcoming auction of Japan's 30-year bonds is seen as a critical test of investor confidence amid these turbulent conditions [10][11].

但这无法完全解释为何黄金在一年半内从2000美元涨至3500美元以上。2023年末或2024年初曾有人说，若黄金涨破2200美元，高价将开始抑制需 求，尤其对亚洲价格敏感的零售买家。事实证明这有一定道理，但忽略了关键：这些价格敏感买家不再是黄金定价的重要因素。 高盛分析师莉娜·托马斯（Lina Thomas）在8月报告中解释：存在两类买家——"信念买家" （ETF、央行和投机者）不计价格买入，和"机会型买 家"（新兴市场家庭）在价格合适时出手。"信念买家基于宏观或风险对冲观点配置黄金，其理论驱动的资金流设定价格方向……机会型买家逢低买 入、涨势中退缩，缓冲波动但不驱动趋势。价格方向由信念买家设定。" 现在有充分理由认为：当最大现金流资产类别几乎未反映美国财政恶化、经济放缓及特朗普政府攻击美联储的事实时，黄金正在关注这一切。 黄金近期突破有几个直接原因。 首先最简单的是，美元持续走软（尽管昨日小幅反弹）而黄金以美元定价。若美元走弱反映对美国财政和制度实力的担忧，向黄金的传导机制再简 单不过。 但不止于此。宏观风险顾问公司策略师迪恩·柯纳特（Dean Curnutt）指出，黄金与衡量股市隐含波动率的VIX指数正相 ...

Group 1 - A global bond sell-off is intensifying due to a surge in corporate debt issuance and concerns over fiscal conditions in developed countries, affecting U.S. Treasuries, European bonds, and spreading to Japan [1][2] - The record corporate bond issuance, with at least $90 billion in investment-grade debt issued globally, has made this week one of the busiest in the credit market this year, with European issuance reaching a record €49.6 billion in a single day [2][3] - The rise in bond yields is diminishing the attractiveness of stocks, leading to pressure on Asian equity markets, while the Japanese yen weakens amid domestic political uncertainty [1][2] Group 2 - In Japan, local political uncertainties are exacerbating bond market pressures, with concerns over the potential resignation of a key ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, increasing political volatility [3] - The upcoming 30-year government bond auction is causing cautious sentiment among investors, contributing to selling pressure on long-term bonds, with the 30-year yield reaching 3.28%, the highest on record [3] - The U.S. yield curve is under pressure to steepen, with analysts noting that the long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields, influenced by various factors including upcoming employment data [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline in August, the current yield of the ten - year treasury bond once approached 1.85%, more than 45BP higher than the reverse repurchase policy rate. With long - term capital and economic fundamentals both favorable to the bond market, the allocation power of the bond market is gradually increasing, and the bond market adjustment is basically in place. However, the expectation of anti - involution promotes the continuous strengthening of the equity market, which is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are relatively stable under the expectation of worry - free capital, and the yield curve is expected to become steeper [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Bond Market Performance: Risk Appetite Rebounds, Treasury Bonds Decline Significantly - **Yield and Price Changes**: In August, the capital market remained loose, and there was no significant marginal change in the economic fundamentals. However, with the rebound of risk appetite, equity assets rose significantly, suppressing bond market sentiment. Long - term bond yields increased significantly, and the treasury bond yield curve steepened. As of August 29, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.84%, and 2.14% respectively, with changes of - 1.53BP, 6.12BP, 13.35BP, and 19.25BP compared to July 31. The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 102.418 yuan, 105.515 yuan, 107.81 yuan, and 116.55 yuan respectively, with changes of 0.06%, - 0.20%, - 0.62%, and - 2.16% compared to July 31 [5][8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On August 29, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds were 35,583, 61,424, 81,725, and 153,398 hands respectively, with changes of - 219, - 2479, - 37, and 473 hands compared to July 31. The open interests were 76,824, 136,875, 199,086, and 140,380 hands respectively, with changes of - 33,460, - 55,118, - 32,215, and - 17,436 hands compared to July 31 [13] - **Net Basis Spread**: The net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations [14] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of short - term and long - term treasury bonds rebounded from low levels [16][19] 2. Policy Dynamics: Central Bank's Flexible Injection, Capital Interest Rates First Rise Then Fall - **Reverse Repurchase Operations**: From August 1 to 29, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 631.46 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase maturity was 636.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 5.34 billion yuan. As of August 29, the reverse repurchase balance was 227.31 billion yuan [23] - **Buy - out Reverse Repurchase**: In August, the central bank carried out 50 billion yuan of 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operations and 70 billion yuan of 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operations. After deducting the maturity amount, the net injection of buy - out reverse repurchase in August was 30 billion yuan [24] - **MLF Operations**: In August, the central bank carried out 60 billion yuan of medium - term lending facility (MLF) operations, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan, marking six consecutive months of "increased roll - over". Together with the 30 billion yuan of buy - out reverse repurchase, the total net injection of medium - term liquidity in August reached 60 billion yuan, the highest monthly level since February this year [27] - **LPR and PSL**: In August, the loan prime rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.50%. In July, the net withdrawal of the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) was 23 billion yuan, and the balance was 126.39 billion yuan [28] 3. Bond Supply and Demand: Government Bond Issuance Accelerates - **Government Bond Issuance**: In August, the government bond issuance was 232.94 billion yuan, with a maturity of 100.03 billion yuan and a net issuance of 132.91 billion yuan. Among them, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 84.9 billion yuan, and the net issuance of local bonds was 48.01 billion yuan. As of August, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 467.11 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 70.14%; the cumulative net issuance of local bonds was 570.58 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 79.25% [42] - **Special Bond Issuance**: In August, the issuance of new special bonds slowed down [43] - **Bond Issuance Multiple**: In July, the overall multiple of local bond issuance increased month - on - month [45] - **Cash Bond Trends**: The yield of treasury bonds decreased slightly, the yield of US treasury bonds fluctuated sideways, and the credit spread of credit bonds was slightly compressed [46][49][50] 4. Strategy Views: Long - term Bonds Bearish, Short - term Bonds Stable - Given the long - term capital and economic fundamentals favorable to the bond market, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place. However, the strengthening of the equity market is negative for long - term bonds, while short - term bonds are relatively stable, and the yield curve is expected to become steeper [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing pressure on the US economy due to expanding trade and budget deficits, which are leading to a steeper yield curve and weakening credit conditions [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The US GDP is projected to contract by 0.3% in Q1 2025, driven by increased imports and reduced government spending, although this is partially offset by rising consumer spending and exports [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, imports surged by 41.3% before tariffs were fully implemented, with March imports reaching $346 billion and the trade deficit widening to $163 billion [1][3]. Employment and Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index fell by 9% from March to April 2025, yet job creation exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Despite the resilience of the job market, the implementation of tariffs is expected to negatively impact employment conditions [2]. Trade Deficit Dynamics - The overall trade deficit has increased since the implementation of tariffs, despite a reduction in the trade deficit with China during Trump's first term [2][4]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have benefited from supply chain shifts, increasing their trade surplus with the US [2]. Credit and Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising fiscal deficits and increasing federal debt, with the five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widening by 20 basis points [3][4]. - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-month high amid concerns over fiscal sustainability and trade tensions [3][5]. Future Projections - The tax reform bill passed by the House is expected to add $3.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, potentially pushing the budget deficit close to 7% of GDP in the coming years [5]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase by 8% to 10% over the four-year term, with long-term bond yields expected to rise significantly, potentially exceeding 6% in the coming years [6].

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - Long-term bond prices have significantly declined across the US, France, and the UK, driven by heightened investor concerns over inflation and government spending [1] - The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has risen to 4.9%, while UK and Japanese bonds are nearing historical highs, indicating a global trend of increasing borrowing costs [1][4] - The widening gap between 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields has reached 117 basis points, the largest increase since 2021, reflecting market volatility [4] Group 2: US Treasury Bonds - Investors speculate that if Trump successfully replaces Fed Governor Lisa Cook with a more dovish policymaker, inflationary pressures may intensify [4] - The performance of 30-year US Treasury bonds has outpaced similar bonds in Europe and the UK, highlighting a growing divergence in fiscal risks and institutional credibility [4] Group 3: Japanese Bonds - Japan faces significant costs to maintain its debt levels, with 10-year bond yields reaching their highest since 2008 amid rising expectations for interest rate hikes [4] Group 4: French Bonds - The 10-year French bond yield is currently the highest in the Eurozone, surpassing yields from countries previously at the center of the European sovereign debt crisis, such as Greece and Portugal [5] Group 5: UK Bonds - UK borrowing costs are under pressure, complicating the fiscal challenges for Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the autumn budget speech [7] - Over the past year, the yield on 30-year UK bonds has increased by approximately 110 basis points, compared to an 80 basis point rise in US bonds [10] Group 6: Australian and New Zealand Bonds - Australia and New Zealand have the steepest yield curves globally, with central banks indicating further rate cuts, supporting short-term bond yields while long-term bonds face pressure from increased issuance [11] - The recent dovish stance from the New Zealand central bank has reinforced the trend of "steepening" trades in global bond markets, indicating ongoing opportunities for investors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve from former President Trump and the financial market's strong bets on a dovish stance from the Fed during the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Former President Trump has intensified his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him a "disaster" for maintaining high interest rates that harm the housing market and restrict access to mortgages for Americans [3]. - Trump has repeatedly called for significant rate cuts and has suggested he would appoint the next Fed chair, indicating a desire for a more aggressive monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Betting - Financial markets are showing strong expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with traders placing substantial bets on this outcome [4]. - The number of options contracts betting on a 50 basis point cut has reached 325,000, with a premium cost of approximately $10 million, indicating a potential profit of $100 million if the Fed follows through [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - A shift in market sentiment is evident, with investors moving away from short positions to a more neutral stance, as indicated by a recent JPMorgan survey [5]. - However, there are risks associated with this consensus, as any deviation from expected dovish comments by Powell could negatively impact the bond market [5]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Strategies - Different types of institutional investors are displaying varied strategies; asset managers are favoring long-term bonds, while hedge funds are employing complex strategies involving both long and short positions in different maturities [6]. - The mixed signals from bond options indicate a divergence in expectations, with traders preparing for a steepening of the yield curve [6].