Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve from former President Trump and the financial market's strong bets on a dovish stance from the Fed during the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Former President Trump has intensified his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him a "disaster" for maintaining high interest rates that harm the housing market and restrict access to mortgages for Americans [3]. - Trump has repeatedly called for significant rate cuts and has suggested he would appoint the next Fed chair, indicating a desire for a more aggressive monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Betting - Financial markets are showing strong expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with traders placing substantial bets on this outcome [4]. - The number of options contracts betting on a 50 basis point cut has reached 325,000, with a premium cost of approximately $10 million, indicating a potential profit of $100 million if the Fed follows through [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - A shift in market sentiment is evident, with investors moving away from short positions to a more neutral stance, as indicated by a recent JPMorgan survey [5]. - However, there are risks associated with this consensus, as any deviation from expected dovish comments by Powell could negatively impact the bond market [5]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Strategies - Different types of institutional investors are displaying varied strategies; asset managers are favoring long-term bonds, while hedge funds are employing complex strategies involving both long and short positions in different maturities [6]. - The mixed signals from bond options indicate a divergence in expectations, with traders preparing for a steepening of the yield curve [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the context of the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures have been continuously adjusting, maintaining a volatile downward trend, and the curve has become steeper [2]. - The continuous upward movement of some commodities may come to a temporary end, and Treasury bond futures may experience a mild rebound in the short term, but the view remains volatile and bearish. The view of a volatile and bearish trend in the second half of the year is maintained. Attention should be paid to going long on the inter - period spread, allocating at lows during over - corrections, and hedging at highs [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts have been continuously adjusting on a weekly basis, and the curve has become steeper [3]. - In the Treasury bond futures market, the long - end is significantly under pressure, with the 30 - year main contract (TL) leading the decline, reflecting an increase in policy - expectation sensitivity. The marginal demand for short - end allocation has recovered, and speculative sentiment is significantly differentiated. The steepening trend of the yield curve has been strengthened, and the term spread has widened. Anti - involution policies have pushed up long - end interest rates, while short - end allocation demand provides bottom - support. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation rhythm, liquidity improvement signals, and Friday's data disclosure to verify the continuation of the curve structure [5]. 3.2 Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - The report provides a chart on liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific text - based summary information is given [7]. 3.3 Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds decreased by 4.67%, foreign capital decreased by 9.42%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 10.58%. Weekly changes: Private funds decreased by 1.89%, foreign capital decreased by 5.57%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 5.47% [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [4][50]. Core Insights - The introduction of government bond trading aims to diversify monetary policy tools and manage liquidity, with a long-term focus on reducing reliance on reserve requirement ratio cuts and broad-based refinancing tools [5][11]. - The government bond trading operations have not achieved the intended goal of steepening the yield curve, instead accelerating the decline of broad interest rates, leading to a situation where the 1-year government bond yield fell below 1% by December 2024 [5][25]. - The resumption of government bond trading is unlikely in the short term due to high interest rate risks among rural commercial banks, which may lead to significant losses if long-term bonds are aggressively purchased [5][44]. Summary by Sections Government Bond Trading Launch and Suspension - Government bond trading was officially launched in August 2024 but was suspended in January 2025 due to persistent supply-demand imbalances in the government bond market [5][28]. - The trading was intended to serve as a channel for basic currency issuance and liquidity management, with operations primarily involving "buying short and selling long" [5][16]. Reasons for Launch - The long-term need to shift the basic currency issuance method from relying on reserve requirement cuts to government bond trading is emphasized [11][12]. - The central government's increasing leverage necessitates coordination with monetary policy to alleviate liquidity pressures and stabilize issuance costs [11][12]. Impact on Monetary Policy - The operations have significantly influenced the central bank's balance sheet, particularly affecting the "government debt" and "other deposits" categories [20][21]. - The rapid decline in interest rates during the trading period has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the government bond trading tool [25][29]. Conditions for Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading is contingent upon three main conditions: monitoring the bond market's operational status, observing changes in government bond yields, and assessing market supply-demand conditions [31][32][43]. - The current liquidity pressure is manageable, and the necessity for resumption is low, especially with the anticipated government bond net financing pressure being controllable in Q3 2025 [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has returned to the main theme of oscillation, with short - term performance relatively strong. The central bank's series of operations, including conducting large - scale outright reverse repurchases and considering canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases, aim to release liquidity and stabilize market expectations. Logically, short - term interest - rate bonds and high - liquidity credit products may benefit, but the long - term market may still be affected by various factors and maintain an oscillatory pattern [1][6][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Trends - From July 14 - 18, the bond market maintained an oscillatory pattern, with most interest - rate bond yields declining. The adjustment pressure was mainly concentrated on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, especially 30 - year treasury bonds. As of July 18, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 50Y treasury bonds changed by - 2.1BP, - 1.9BP, 0.0BP, + 1.4BP, - 0.7BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.35%, 1.38%, 1.67%, 1.89%, 1.95% [1][9]. - The bond market showed a "reverse V - shaped" trend due to the combination of multiple factors such as the central bank's operations, economic data releases, and the central bank's public consultation on canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases [9]. 3.2 Central Bank's New Movements - During the tax payment period this week, the central bank continuously maintained net reverse repurchase injections and conducted 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan, releasing a signal of caring for the capital market. The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchases totaled 1.7268 trillion yuan, with 425.7 billion yuan due, achieving a net injection of 1.3011 trillion yuan. MLF due was 100 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase injection was 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan [9][17]. - As of July 18, R001 and R007 changed by + 8.4BP and - 0.1BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.49% and 1.51%; DR001 and DR007 increased by 11.4BP and 3.5BP respectively, reaching 1.46% and 1.51% [17]. - After the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points in May and carried out outright reverse repurchases in advance in June, it conducted another 1.4 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases in July, making outright operations gradually normalized, which shows the central bank's attitude of caring for liquidity and supporting broad credit and further stabilizes market expectations [2][19]. - The reasons for the central bank to conduct outright reverse repurchases are to hedge the capital gap and relieve the pressure on the bank's liability side to support the real - economy credit supply [19][21]. - Compared with pledged repurchases, outright reverse repurchases have longer terms, reduce the pressure of short - term tool roll - overs, weaken the dependence on the credit quality of bank collateral, lower the financing threshold for small and medium - sized banks, and improve the efficiency of liquidity release [3][23]. 3.3 Understanding the Central Bank's Cancellation of the Freeze of Collateral in Bond Repurchases - On July 18, the central bank publicly solicited opinions on the "Decision of the People's Bank of China on Amending Some Rules (Draft for Comment)", which included canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases, aiming to facilitate monetary policy operations such as open - market treasury bond trading and promote the high - level opening of the bond market [25]. - The reasons for the central bank to propose canceling the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases are that the current pledged repurchase model in China leads to a large "precipitation" of high - grade bonds and low efficiency in collateral disposal when the financing party defaults, while international mature markets generally use outright repurchases where collateral can be circulated again. Also, canceling the freeze can unfreeze the 6 - trillion - yuan daily repurchase market and enhance the flexibility of domestic liquidity management [4][27]. - If the freeze of collateral in bond repurchases is canceled, the capital market is expected to see a pattern of "stable quantity and falling price". Short - term interest - rate bonds may benefit and have downward space, while long - term bonds may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen [5][32]. 3.4 Next Week's Key Points of Attention - Monday (July 21): China's 1Y and 5Y LPR quotes. - Tuesday (July 22): China's June bank foreign exchange settlement, US July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. - Wednesday (July 23): US June M2 month - on - month, EU July Consumer Confidence Index. - Thursday (July 24): Eurozone July benchmark interest rate, Eurozone July overnight deposit rate. - Friday (July 25): China's July MLF injection, Eurozone June M2 year - on - year [37].

Group 1 - Option traders are repositioning their yen positions in anticipation of political shocks and trade tensions, expecting these factors to weaken the yen against the dollar further [1] - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections are a focal point for traders, with interest in one-month call options reflecting the expected uncertainty surrounding the elections [1][2] - Ongoing uncertainty in US-Japan trade negotiations is putting additional pressure on the yen, with tariffs announced by Trump on imports from Japan and other countries [1][9] Group 2 - Market expectations that the election results may pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus have begun to push up Japan's long-term yields [2] - The correlation between USD/JPY and 30-year Japanese government bond yields is noted, indicating a relationship between currency movements and yield curve steepening [3] Group 3 - If the market begins to price in a potential policy shift towards fiscal expansion following the elections, it could lead to higher interest rates [4] - Some funds are increasing their long positions in USD/JPY ahead of the Senate elections, anticipating a weaker yen due to potential election outcomes [4] Group 4 - The trading patterns in the options market are undergoing significant changes, with a notable increase in bullish sentiment towards USD/JPY [5] - Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the trading volume of bullish options for USD/JPY was more than double that of bearish options on July 11 [5] Group 5 - Traders are focusing on options with knockout features, such as reverse knockout calls, which are more cost-effective as they become invalid upon reaching specific price barriers [8] - The latest US non-farm payroll data has further stimulated bullish trading interest in USD/JPY, delaying expectations for a potential Fed rate cut [10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing signs of mild "indigestion," characterized by a steepening yield curve and cheaper government bonds, although it remains stable overall [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market has begun to exhibit mild "indigestion" signs, indicated by a steepening yield curve [1] - Government bonds have become cheaper, reflecting changes in market dynamics [1] - Despite these changes, the market continues to operate smoothly [1] Group 2: Risk Factors - A potential risk identified is the reduction in savings, leading to increased competition for funds [1] - There is a concern that rising inflation and interest rates could trigger capital outflows, resulting in higher real yields [1] - Such developments could exert pressure on the economy and financial system [1] Group 3: Government Debt Management - National debt management agencies can respond to market conditions by "manipulating" government bond issuance, such as canceling auctions and substituting short-term bonds for long-term ones [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, emphasizes that financial stability is fundamental to growth, highlighting ongoing risks and uncertainties in the market [1] Group 1: Financial Stability - Financial stability is identified as the cornerstone of economic growth [1] - There is a particular focus on leveraged strategies due to associated risks [1] - A discussion paper has been released to enhance the resilience of the repurchase market [1] Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - Global economic risks remain elevated, impacting overall market conditions [1] - The trend of a steepening yield curve is observed globally, not limited to the UK [1] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains an open option for monetary policy [1] Group 3: Banking Sector Resilience - UK borrowers are noted for their resilience, indicating a stable borrowing environment [1] - The banking sector is positioned to provide necessary support amidst current economic challenges [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the bond market. 2. Core Views - Last week, the bond market showed a warm and volatile trend, with the yield curve becoming steeper. Despite some negative factors, the market was supported by loose liquidity and reduced treasury bond issuance, leading to a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term rates continued to fall due to "spread - chasing" trades, further steepening the yield curve [1]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend. The upcoming June inflation data is likely to improve marginally but remain at a low level, with limited negative impact on the bond market. If liquidity remains loose, short - term bond rates may decline further. Long - term rates will likely continue to fluctuate, and the yield curve is expected to keep steepening [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was warm and volatile last week, with long - term bond yields falling slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.03% for the week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.29bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped by 0.90bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - Daily trends: On June 30, the bond market weakened initially but recovered slightly at the end. From July 1 - 3, the market was generally positive due to loose liquidity and "spread - chasing" trades. On July 4, short - term bonds were strong, while long - term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [3]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - A total of 47 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, 130 fewer than the previous week. The issuance volume was 513.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 354.4 billion yuan, and the net financing was 376.6 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 404.1 billion yuan. Treasury and policy - bank bond issuance and net financing increased, while local government bond issuance and net financing decreased significantly [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds were 4.21 times, 3.38 times, and 21.15 times respectively [12]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - In June, China's macro - economic sentiment continued to recover. The manufacturing PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%. The improvement was due to the effects of growth - stabilizing policies and eased trade tensions. The service PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, in line with seasonal patterns [13]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, most high - frequency data declined last week, including blast furnace operating rates, semi - steel tire operating rates, and daily hot - metal production, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased slightly. - On the demand side, the BDI index and the CCFI index both decreased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities dropped significantly. - In terms of prices, pork prices rebounded slightly, and most commodity prices rose, including crude oil, copper, and rebar [14]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan from the open market last week. - R007 and DR007 both declined significantly, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks decreased, the 3 - month national - share direct - discount rate dropped, and the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated slightly and remained basically the same as the previous week [24].

Group 1 - The core argument of the report is that tariffs are not a zero-sum game and have significant implications for U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the broader economic impact rather than just the immediate costs to producers and consumers [1][2] - Tariffs paid by U.S. importers are projected to amount to $327 billion annually, which represents 1% of the nominal GDP for 2025 [2][6] - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, profit margins could drop from 13.8% to 11.7% in Q1 2025, significantly below the 15-year moving average of 12.2% [2][12] Group 2 - The report highlights that if 75% of the tariffs are passed on to consumers, profit margins could exceed the 15-year moving average by 1.1 percentage points [12][13] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment is leaning towards downside risks, with a noted decline in air passenger traffic compared to previous years [17] - The report suggests that despite some foreign investors increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks, there is a notable trend of U.S. domestic investors reducing their exposure, indicating a potential reallocation of assets [34][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The bond market first declined and then rose. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and other factors, long - term bond yields first increased and then decreased, with a slight overall increase, while short - term interest rates continued to decline [1]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue the volatile trend. Although the fundamentals and capital situation are still favorable to the bond market, the removal of the direct mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the second - quarter regular meeting announcement of the Monetary Policy Committee has postponed the market's interest rate cut expectations, and the bullish momentum of the bond market may be insufficient. In the context of crowded market trading, bond market volatility may increase [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated narrowly last week, with long - term bond yields rising slightly. The main contract of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.11% cumulatively, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.66bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1.00bp, with the term spread continuing to widen [2]. - From June 23rd to June 25th, affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and market expectations of policy announcements, the bond market was generally weak; on June 26th, the bond market warmed up slightly due to the lack of incremental policies at the press conference; on June 27th, the bond market continued to be strong in the morning and adjusted slightly in the late session [2]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 177 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 94 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 867.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 13.1 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 780.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 457.7 billion yuan [9]. - In terms of bond types, the issuance volume of local bonds increased significantly, while the issuance volume of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased. The net financing amount of policy - financial bonds and local bonds increased, while that of Treasury bonds decreased [9]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 4.12 times, 3.28 times, and 20.35 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - On June 25th, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations through interest - rate tender. In June, the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan. This was to maintain the liquidity of the banking system and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment. In the second half of the year, the MLF is expected to continue to be renewed with an increased volume [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants and daily pig iron output increased, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the blast furnace operating rate remained the same as the previous week [14]. - From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline significantly, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase slightly [14]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, and most commodity prices declined. Crude oil and rebar prices fell, while copper prices continued to rise [14]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 126.72 billion yuan. The R007 and DR007 both increased significantly, the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks increased significantly, the interest rates of national and stock - backed direct discounts for various terms increased, and the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase. The leverage ratio of the inter - bank market fluctuated slightly downward [26][27][33].