花旗策略师Jason Williams在一份报告中说，花旗略微更新了对美国国债年底收益率水平的部分预测， 但对长期以来对10年期国债收益率的预测很有信心。他说，该机构仍预计10年期美国国债收益率年底将 达到4.10%的水平，与去年以来的预测保持一致。然而，花旗适度更新了其他基准点，以更好地符合其 对2026年更陡峭的曲线和更低的政策利率预期的看法。花旗对两年期美国国债收益率的新基本预测为 3.50%；五年期国债收益率为3.65%，30年期国债收益率为4.70%。 ...

上周末，当被问及下月潜在的美联储降息前"最青睐的交易"时，高盛全球银行和市场首席策略官Josh Schiffrin将短期政府债券列为了他 的首选…… 此前，业内机构对110位经济学家进行的调查也显示，61%的受访者预计美联储将在9月17日的下次会议上将利率下调25个基点，至4% 至4.25%之间。这将是今年以来的首次降息。其余受访者中的大多数，则认为美联储下次会议将维持利率不变。 在高盛官网上周五播出的一段《市场》播客节目中，Schiffrin在与高盛股票销售交易部董事总经理Mike Washington交流时，着重提到 了五年期美国国债。 截至周一尾盘，五年期美国国债收益率交投于3.84%附近，较年初的4.38%已出现了明显下跌。 Schiffrin表示，他更倾向于短期美国国债，因为他预计美联储下月将放松货币政策，且美国劳动力市场正在降温。本月初的数据显示， 美国7月新增就业岗位仅为7.3万个，低于预期的10.6万个。 Schiffrin指出，美联储"极有可能"在9月放松政策，"我感觉9月降息25个基点可能性极高。" 他还补充称，美联储届时维持利率不变的可能性甚至要低于降息50个基点。 "我认为五年期国债收 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains unchanged at 36,045 kilograms as of August 7 [1][2] - The main gold futures contract opened at 782.28 yuan per gram, with a high of 785.00 yuan and a low of 781.08 yuan, closing at 785.02 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% [1] - Trading volume for the day reached 187,081 contracts, with an increase in open interest by 2,418 contracts, totaling 217,630 contracts [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists noted that the current relative expensiveness of five-year U.S. Treasury bonds is rare, except during periods when the Federal Reserve lowered the overnight loan rate target to 0% [2] - The five-year Treasury bond has been the best-performing segment of the U.S. Treasury market this year, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Ongoing inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit are exerting upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, with market expectations suggesting a potentially more accommodative policy path after mid-next year following changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [2]

Group 1 - The 60/40 investment strategy, traditionally recommended for balancing risk and stable income, is experiencing a revival due to the restoration of the traditional inverse relationship between stocks and bonds [1][6] - As of mid-May, a 60/40 portfolio indicator in the U.S. has returned approximately 1.6% this year, outperforming the S&P 500 index with lower volatility [1][6] - The recent significant drop in the price of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, with yields surpassing 5%, has raised investor caution regarding long-term U.S. debt [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns over rising deficits and the impact of Trump's tax plan have led to a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, contributing to increased long-term bond yields [2] - The performance of long-term bonds is increasingly resembling that of risk assets rather than typical defensive assets, as noted by PGIM's Chief Investment Officer [2][6] - Short-term bonds are currently favored over long-term bonds, as investors seek higher yields to compensate for deficit risks, leading to a steepening yield curve [6][9] Group 3 - The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index remains negatively correlated with stocks, with an average duration of approximately 5.7, indicating lower interest rate risk compared to 30-year bonds [9] - The S&P 500 index has seen a recovery, pushing its valuation close to historical highs, while its earnings yield has dropped to 3.95%, about half a percentage point lower than the 10-year Treasury yield [9][12] - Given and other investors prefer mid-term bonds, such as five-year Treasuries, over long-term bonds due to rising debt levels and associated risks [11][12]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson believes that a weak dollar will support U.S. corporate earnings, helping U.S. stocks outperform other global markets, with the S&P 500 index expected to remain in the range of 5000-5500 points [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that foreign investors are still reluctant to buy U.S. assets, with data showing a "sudden stop" in overseas purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds over the past two months [1] - Bank of America highlights that market focus is on potential hints from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes in June or July, with current market expectations for the Bank of Japan's final rate slightly above 0.75% [1] Group 2 - Barclays recommends investors to re-establish long positions in five-year U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing increased uncertainty following tariff announcements [2] - Societe Generale's energy strategist indicates that uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production plans is creating significant downside risks for oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices expected to reach $60 per barrel in Q2 and $70 in Q3 [3] - ING's report states that President Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies have not been beneficial for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields recently stabilizing around 4.256% [4] Group 3 - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that even if the Bank of Japan takes a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, the yen may still appreciate due to expected downward revisions in economic growth and core inflation forecasts [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that 2025 will be a turning point for China's steel industry, with ongoing capacity reductions and industry reforms expected to benefit profit distribution within the sector [6] - Huatai Securities sees investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025, driven by policy catalysts and the performance of leading companies [7] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the dividend attributes of bank stocks under the "equal tariffs" backdrop, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [8] - Guotai Junan suggests prioritizing brokerage firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities, as the fixed income self-operation business undergoes transformation [9]

此外，美元兑一篮子货币小幅反弹，日内指数上涨至99.08，进一步压制金价。虽然美元前一交易日因 避险需求下滑而大幅走低，但技术性反弹和部分避险资金回流支撑了短期美元需求。 摘要周二（4月29日）国际黄金价格震荡下跌，交易员对贸易局势的缓和反应积极，认为紧张情绪暂时 缓解，从而减少了对避险资产的配置需求。 周二（4月29日）国际黄金价格震荡下跌，交易员对贸易局势的缓和反应积极，认为紧张情绪暂时缓 解，从而减少了对避险资产的配置需求。 【要闻速递】 亚洲大国方面近日决定豁免部分美国商品关税，而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）则表 示，未来的谈判"取决于亚洲大国是否愿意采取实质行动"，暗示美方姿态有所缓和。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 三菱日联的Lee Hardman在一份报告中表示，即使日本央行在周四的会议上对进一步加息持谨慎态度， 日元仍有升值空间。鉴于美国加征关税，预计日本央行将下调今年的经济增长和核心通胀预期。 据CME"美联储观察"： 美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为91.1%，降息25个基点的概率为8.9%。美联储 到 ...

周二(4月29日)欧市盘中，国际黄金继续维持区间震荡，截至发稿报3324.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.58%，今 日金价开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3348.36美元/盎司，最低触及3304.69美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 尽管市场风险偏好短暂回升，市场仍保持高度关注美联储政策路径。市场普遍预期美联储将在6月恢复 降息周期，全年或将实施三次降息。 "在当前不确定性环境下，黄金仍是应对利率和地缘双重风险的核心配置。"OANDA分析师Craig Erlam 指出。 此外，俄罗斯单方面宣布将在5月8日实施72小时停火，但乌克兰方面并未回应，地缘局势缓和，为黄金 提供潜在支撑。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 巴克莱建议投资者在4月中旬重新建立五年期美国国债的多头头寸，而在4月2日关税公告公布后，鉴于 价格重新定价和更高的不确定性，投资者已转为中性。 【黄金技术分析】 黄金周一下跌在3268.00之上受到支持，上涨在3353.00之下遇阻，意味着欧美短线下跌后有可能保持上 涨的走势。如果黄金今天下跌在3293.00之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向33 ...

巴克莱仍青睐长期美债 建议投资者重新建立五年期美债的多头头寸 金十数据4月28日讯，巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美 联储降低利率做准备。巴克莱建议投资者在4月中旬重新建立五年期美国国债的多头头寸，而在4月2日 关税公告公布后，鉴于价格重新定价和更高的不确定性，投资者已转为中性。巴克莱表示："（转向） 温和的关税言论使市场平静下来，但谈判结果仍高度不确定，这本身就对前景构成了压力。"买入这些 债券的另一个理由是，巴克莱怀疑美国今年能否避免经济衰退，这增加了美联储降息的理由。 ...