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债券ETF周度跟踪(10.13-10.17):债券ETF出现年内最大赎回潮-20251020
Southwest Securities· 2025-10-20 09:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The bond ETF market has experienced the largest redemption wave this year, with all bond - related ETFs showing net outflows. The net outflows of treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs reached new highs this week. Only corporate bond ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs had small net inflows. Different types of bond ETFs presented various trends in share and net value changes [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflow Situations - Bond - related ETFs had net outflows across the board. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 49.60 billion yuan, - 74.56 billion yuan, and - 9.41 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 133.57 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of October 17, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 6778.33 billion yuan, down 2.00% from the previous week's close, up 277.05% from the beginning of the year, and accounting for 12.27% of the total market ETF scale, a 43 - basis - point decrease from the previous weekend [4][7]. - Treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had record - high weekly net outflows. Only corporate bond ETFs (+1.09 billion yuan) and urban investment bond ETFs (+1.89 billion yuan) had small net inflows last week, while the net inflows of other types of bond ETFs were negative. The net outflows of sci - tech bond ETFs and treasury - bond ETFs were relatively large, at - 49.52 billion yuan and - 48.59 billion yuan respectively, both reaching new highs in weekly net outflows since the beginning of 2024 [7]. 3.2 Various Bond ETF Share Trends - The shares of treasury - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs had significant outflows. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by - 45.47 million shares, - 0.93 million shares, no change, - 55.97 million shares, and - 71.20 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025, with a total change of - 173.57 million shares for bond - related ETFs [20]. 3.3 Main Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - Among the representative products, only the urban investment bond ETF had positive share growth. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 5.33 million shares, - 0.46 million shares, no change, 18.60 million shares, and - 51.70 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [24]. - The net values continued to rise, except for the convertible - bond ETF. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by 1.47%, 0.37%, 0.16%, 0.10%, and - 2.26% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [28]. 3.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares had an overall outflow. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed by no change, - 2.00 million shares, - 1.80 million shares, 0.01 million shares, no change, 0.10 million shares, - 2.90 million shares, and - 1.80 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [31]. - The net values continued the upward trend. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.13% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [34]. 3.5 Sci - Tech Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares generally had outflows. Among the 24 existing sci - tech bond ETFs, the top three in terms of share size were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF China Merchants. The top three products in terms of share net inflow last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF E Fund, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Taikang, with changes of 0.30 million shares, 0.30 million shares, and 0.04 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [37]. - The net values generally increased. The top three sci - tech bond ETFs in terms of net - value increase last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Dacheng, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Huaxia, with increases of 0.16%, 0.15%, and 0.14% respectively [38]. 3.6 Single Bond ETF Market Performance - The net values of long - term interest - rate bond ETFs rebounded, and only the net values of convertible - bond ETFs declined. Last week, the net - value increases of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF and 30 - year treasury - bond ETF Boshi led, while only the net values of convertible - bond ETF and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF adjusted downward, expected to be affected by the decline of the equity market in the second half of the week [40]. - In terms of premium/discount rates, the benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had significantly higher discounts than other products. Credit - Bond ETF Boshi, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Invesco, and Corporate Bond ETF E Fund had the highest discount rates [40]. - In terms of scale changes, urban investment bond ETFs and corporate bond ETFs had positive net inflows, while short - term financing ETFs, Treasury - Bond ETF Dongcai, and 30 - year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi had the largest net outflows last week [40].