[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（10.13-10.17） 债券 ETF 出现年内最大赎回潮 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF资金净流入情况：债券类 ETF全线净流出。上周利率债类 ETF、 信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别-49.60亿元、-74.56亿元、-9.41 亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额-133.57亿元。国债类 ETF、科创债 ETF 周度净流出金额创新高。上周仅公司债 ETF、城投债 ETF获得小幅净流入， 其余类型债券 ETF净流入资金为负，其中科创债 ETF、国债类 ETF净流出金 额相对更多，分别为-49.52 亿元、-48.59 亿元。 ...

Overall Summary Report's Core View - During the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, there was a divergence in funds flowing into bond ETFs, with credit - bond ETFs being favored by funds. The net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs was - 569 million yuan, 9.619 billion yuan, and - 2.452 billion yuan respectively, and the total net inflow of the bond ETF market was 6.598 billion yuan. The market preferred science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs [3][6]. 1.1 Various Bond ETFs' Net Inflow of Funds - There was a divergence in funds flowing into bond ETFs, with credit - bond ETFs being favored. The net inflow of funds into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs was - 569 million yuan, 9.619 billion yuan, and - 2.452 billion yuan respectively. The bond ETF market had a total net inflow of 6.598 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of - 2.967 billion yuan this month and 417.82 billion yuan this year. As of October 10, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 69.1673 billion yuan, up 1.06% from September 26, 2025, and up 284.75% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.70% of the total market ETF scale, a 19bp increase from September 26 [6]. - The market preferred science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs. The net inflow of funds into science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs last week was + 5.013 billion yuan and + 4.528 billion yuan respectively, leading significantly. The net inflow of funds into convertible - bond ETFs, policy - financial bond ETFs, and treasury - bond ETFs was negative, at - 2.452 billion yuan, - 491 million yuan, and - 78 million yuan respectively [6]. 1.2 Various Bond ETFs' Share Trends - Convertible - bond ETFs had a significant outflow of shares. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 684.67 million shares, 438.69 million shares, 80.18 million shares, 6.97434 billion shares, and 5.10215 billion shares respectively. Compared with the close on September 26, 2025, they changed by - 0.04 million shares, - 4.28 million shares, no change, 91.41 million shares, and - 208 million shares respectively, with a total change of - 120.91 million shares for bond - type ETFs [17]. 1.3 Main Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - Long - term interest - rate bond ETFs and convertible - bond ETFs had a net outflow of shares. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 2.99 million shares, - 4.56 million shares, no change, no change, and - 107.80 million shares respectively compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [24]. - After the holiday, both stocks and bonds performed well, and the net values generally rebounded. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 0.38%, 0.11%, 0.11%, 0.06%, and 1.56% respectively compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [28]. 1.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - There was no significant change in shares. As of the close on October 10, 2025, among the 8 existing benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs, the shares of most products had no change, and only a few had minor increases [31]. - The net values generally rebounded significantly. As of the close on October 10, 2025, the net values of the 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.12% - 0.18% compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [32]. 1.5 Science - Innovation Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - The shares generally increased, with individual performance varying. Among the 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the top three in terms of share inflow were GF Science - Innovation Bond ETF, Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF, and Dacheng Science - Innovation Bond ETF, with changes of 11.7 million shares, 10.0 million shares, and 8.0 million shares respectively compared with the close on September 26, 2025 [37]. - The net values generally increased, and the second - batch products generally had higher net values. This period saw a general increase in the net values of science - innovation bond ETFs, and the top three in terms of increase were Southern Science - Innovation Bond ETF, Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF, and GF Science - Innovation Bond ETF [38]. 1.6 Single Bond ETFs' Market Performance - Only the net values of ultra - long - term interest - rate bond ETFs declined. This period saw a general increase in net values, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the increase. Only the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF and Boshi 30 - year treasury - bond ETF declined by - 0.4% and - 0.6% respectively [40]. - In terms of premium/discount rates, Boshi Credit - Bond ETF, E Fund Corporate Bond ETF, and Credit - Bond ETF Fund had relatively high discount rates. In terms of scale changes, the short - term financing ETF had a significantly leading net inflow this period, followed by GF Science - Innovation Bond ETF and Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF [40].

Group 1 - The overall revenue and profit growth of state-owned banks improved in 1H25, mainly driven by a significant increase in other non-interest income and cost release. Additionally, market interest rates and deposit rates declined, stabilizing the interest margin, leading to a marginal increase in net interest income growth [2][3]. - The asset quality of state-owned banks is relatively strong, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios and attention rates remaining low and either stable or decreasing. The provision coverage ratio increased, enhancing the safety margin, and the capital adequacy ratio also improved, strengthening the risk resistance capability of these banks [2][4]. - Investment recommendations suggest a shift in the operating model and investment logic of bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak cycle." During periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive, and the report continues to favor the stability and sustainability of bank stocks [2][5]. Group 2 - In terms of revenue, the year-on-year growth for 1H25 was +1.5%, with a turnaround from negative to positive growth compared to 1Q25. The net profit saw a slight decline of -0.1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous quarter. The increase in revenue was largely attributed to the growth in non-interest income, particularly from the stock market [3][7]. - The asset quality analysis indicates that the overall NPL ratio remained stable at 1.27% in 1H25, with a slight decrease in the attention loan ratio. The overdue loan ratio increased slightly but remains low, and the provision coverage ratio rose to 237.50%, further enhancing the safety margin [4][9]. - The report highlights that the cost-to-income ratio for 1H25 was 29.3%, showing a year-on-year decrease, while the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 12.67%, maintaining a high level of capital strength [4][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market lacks its own driving factors this year, with its fluctuations mainly influenced by external factors. The "endogenous" fluctuations of the bond market are converging, and it's difficult to change the "meager fluctuations" of this year's bond market. In the second half of the year, the bond market is expected to have narrow - range oscillations each month, and neither excessive short - nor long - positions are advisable [5][10][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 6 - month Bond Market's Expected "Old Script" - Since June, interest rates have been consolidating and oscillating, and fund durations have gradually increased, anticipating a downward trend in interest rates in July. The market was skeptical about the economic outlook despite good Q2 GDP data, expecting a neutral tone from the July Politburo meeting. As a result, in early July, the overall fund duration increased, and there was an expansion of credit - bond ETFs. In June, the net inflow of market - making credit - bond ETFs was 6.3314 billion yuan, a 146% increase from May. In mid - July, the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF took over the market, with an average duration of about 4.3 years and 3.9 years for the tracked indices [13] 2. New Developments in the Equity and Commodity Markets - Starting from June, the commodity and equity markets showed a completely opposite trend to the bond market, entering a trading mode with rapidly increasing risk appetite. Commodity prices rebounded from lows and then rose across the board, fully recovering the gap caused by the April tariff shock by July 22. The equity market reached new highs and continued to rise, spreading from bank dividends to low - valuation sectors in the technology sector and then to the cyclical sector. The bond market's expected scenario did not occur, and it started to adjust rapidly on July 21 [4] 3. Bond Market's Rise and Fall Driven by External Factors - The bond market has been in a narrow - range technical oscillation, with interest rates fluctuating around the central level by about 10 BP. Two major factors causing significant adjustments in the bond market are external: the unexpected escalation of trade frictions in April led to a sharp decline in bond interest rates, with the 10Y Treasury bond rate dropping from over 1.8% to 1.61% on April 7; the resonance of the equity and commodity markets in late July led to an accelerated upward movement of the 10Y interest rate, breaking through 1.70% [5][21] 4. The "Positive and Negative" Sides of the Convergence of Bond Market's Endogenous Fluctuations - On one hand, the yields of bond - based funds have declined, and the expected returns of bond - related assets need adjustment. As of August 1, the performance of pure - bond funds this year has been weaker than in 2024. On the other hand, the market's attention to bonds has significantly decreased. The trading volume of Treasury bond futures has not changed significantly, while the trading volume of coking coal contracts has increased. The "asset shortage" narrative in the bond market is also weakening, as insurance premium growth has slowed, rural commercial banks' trading volume has decreased, and the buying power of wealth management products for long - term bonds has weakened [24][25][26] 5. Main Themes in the Second Half of the Year - The market needs to find factors beyond the "stock - bond seesaw" effect. When the equity market stabilizes above 3500 points, it's necessary to consider the factors jointly influencing the stock and bond markets. The expectations, verifications, and adjustments of "anti - involution" will continue, and the market's understanding will change. The underestimated overseas and tariff factors may resurface. The most important factor for the bond market may be its own asset - liability changes. If the average annualized returns of bond funds and wealth management products are less than 1.5% by the end of the year, there may be a shift of deposits to riskier assets [8][30][33]