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C50风向指数调查:7月同业存单利率中枢或延续下行 短期内重启国债买卖必要性降低
news flash· 2025-07-09 04:19
Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Direction Index survey indicates that the central rate of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) may continue to decline in July, and the necessity to restart government bond trading in the short term is reduced [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity Outlook - The survey involved 20 market institutions, with 12 expressing an optimistic view on the overall liquidity in July, indicating no liquidity gap [1] - Six institutions assessed the liquidity as neutral, estimating a liquidity gap of less than 1 trillion yuan [1] - Two institutions predicted a potential tightening phase, with a liquidity gap ranging from 1 trillion to 2.06 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market Expectations - Multiple market institutions anticipate that the central rate of interbank CDs may continue to decline in July [1] - The resumption of central bank bond purchases is expected to take time, as the market adjusts to the influx of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks [1] - A bullish trend in the bond market is anticipated, suggesting that early positioning in potential investment varieties for incremental funds may be a favorable strategy [1]