1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has a winning probability but lacks odds. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds around a 1.65% yield on dips and to focus on the allocation opportunities of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [2][8][46]. - The winning probability of the bond market depends on the trend factors in marginal changes, mainly the fundamentals and the supply - demand situation of funds. Currently, the fundamentals face downward pressure, and low prices may further develop, while factors such as fiscal deposit release, central bank net injection, and weak entity financing demand will lead to a decline in capital prices [8][16]. - The bond market lacks odds because it has fully priced in various positive factors, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has deviated significantly from the model results. Also, the scope and rhythm of monetary policy suggest that there is limited room for a significant decline in interest rates [8][39]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Bond Market Has a Winning Probability - **Fundamentals**: Under the disturbance of trade frictions, the fundamentals face further downward pressure, and low prices may further develop, meaning the bond market lacks a basis for correction. In April, both manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, and international crude oil prices dropped, putting direct pressure on prices [16][17]. - **Funds**: In the second quarter, the concentrated release of fiscal deposits, the central bank's resumption of net injection, and weak entity financing demand will jointly lead to a decline in capital prices. Fiscal deposit growth in February and March was the highest since February 2024, and government bond net financing in 1 - 4 months was much higher than in previous years. However, government bond net financing declined in April, and the central bank resumed net injection in mid - to - late April [27][28]. Bond Market Lacks Odds - **Pricing of Positive Factors**: The bond market has fully priced in various positive factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has deviated significantly from the model results, indicating that the bond market has fully priced in factors such as the decline in capital prices and trade frictions in advance [39]. - **Monetary Policy**: Whether the tight pressure on narrow - sense liquidity is further transmitted to social financing is the key for the central bank to increase liquidity injection or cut the reserve requirement ratio. Under the assumption of an 8.2% annual social financing growth rate and M2 growth rate returning to the social financing growth rate, the central bank needs to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50bp and inject 1.8 trillion yuan of base money. The central bank's future focus may be on the innovation of structural monetary policy tools [43].