Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shifted from a bull market to a volatile market due to various factors including changes in monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and geopolitical events [2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound in the A-share market has improved market risk sentiment, leading to a decline in government bond futures [1]. - As of June 30, the 30-year government bond futures experienced a significant drop of 0.5%, marking the largest pullback since June 23, with a total decline exceeding 1% [1][4]. - On July 1, the 30-year government bond futures rebounded, rising over 0.3% [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in the bond market is attributed to a tightening of the funding environment, a recovery in risk appetite, and an increase in bond supply [1]. - The net financing amount for interest rate bonds in June was 17,070 million, a slight decrease of 878 million from May, but an increase of 8,612 million compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect the bond market to gradually strengthen in July, despite a weak fundamental backdrop and a loose liquidity environment [1]. - The bond market is anticipated to exhibit a volatile upward trend, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields facing resistance levels of 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively [7]. - The liquidity situation is expected to remain stable, supported by the central bank's actions, although fluctuations in funding rates may occur due to tax payments and government bond settlements [8].