新华财经上海1月13日电（记者杨溢仁）跨年之后，国内债券市场呈现出鲜明的分化特征——利率债收 益率全线上行承压，信用债收益率逆势下行，信用利差被动压降，形成"利率弱、信用强"的格局。 配置需求支撑信用债走强 就具体数据来看，利率债方面，10年期国债活跃券收益率从1月5日的1.84%附近攀升至1月7日的 1.87%，全周累计上行约3BP；30年超长期国债表现更弱，收益率从2.25%攀升至2.30%，周度上行幅度 一度高达近8BP，曲线呈现陡峭化趋势。 信用债的表现则截然相反，短端品种表现尤为亮眼，1年期AAA等级中短票收益率较2025年末下行约 4.4BP，信用利差（减国开）下行约7.0BP；1月4日至9日期间，AA及以下等级信用利差大多收窄了3BP 至6BP，中低等级城投债表现相对占优。 整体而言，债市呈现出了期限分化与品种分化并存的特征，短端信用债成为资金避险的重要选择，而长 端利率债表现受多重因素压制持续调整。 "信用债逆势走强并非由单一因素驱动，而是配置需求、政策利好与市场结构等多重力量共振的结 果。"一位券商交易员告诉记者。 首先，跨年后配置盘集中发力对信用债需求形成了支撑。经历了2025年末成交寡淡 ...

(ID中信保诚基金了! 中信保诚稳悦债券A TOP5 (5/1002) - 告 mmun E 指导 中信保诚基金 2025Q4 成绩单 固定收益篇 探寻稳进更优解 2025年,固收市场在"股债晓晓板"效应、政策预期与宏 观经济叙事的多重博弈中,步入了高波动的震荡格局。 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳泰债券A 前15% (79/555) 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳健债券A 前20% (59/300) 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 004102 ill 经信 004108 003226 投资者对"低利率"环境的感受尤为深刻,固收+基金优势 出显。 复杂的市场情况,是基金公司投研能力的"试金石"。 在此背景下,中信保诚基金持续为投资者筑牢资产配置 的底仓,多种策略债基均取得亮眼回报。 利率指数 中信保诚中债0-2年政策性金融债指数A 020165 前8% (12/164) 近一年 利率债指数债券型基金(A类) 同类基金 推会成本法 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚景丰债券A 前17% (162/1002) 中信保诚嘉润66个月定期开放债券 010462 前20% ...

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 12 日 年初债市走出 2025 年初的镜像 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 年初债市的表现似乎走出了 2025 年初的镜像。2025 年初，长端利率 在跨年后无视各种扰动快速下行，即便央行暂停购债且大幅收紧流动性， 长端利率在一个月后才出现了显著的调整。今年伊始，尽管公募新规的潜 在冲击明显缓释，但市场对于 A 股与商品价格上涨、供给压力、信贷冲击 等因素的担忧导致利率持续上行。但今年初市场对于各类外生因素的悲观 预期和 2025 年初市场的乐观预期，可能都是情绪的集中反应。 收 益 专 题 目前市场担忧的核心问题还是超长债的供需，年初以来市场的调整也 与月初公布的 1 月关键期限国债发行规模较大，部分区域地方债超长占比 仍然较高有关。但关键期限国债发行规模的上升，可能也受到了到期量上 升的影响，且其上升可能也使得贴现和超长期一般国债的发行压力下降。 以目前的发行计划来看，2026Q1 政府债的供给相较于 2025Q1 可能反而略 有回落。而从地方政府的角度看，由于在地方债到期后不能由再融资债完 全续发对冲，也使其更倾向于发行长久期品种。但全国财政工作会议仍然 ...

新年伊始，A股持续走强，债市则迎来连续调整，10年期国债收益率上行至1.90%附近。去年该收益率 两次触及1.90%后，均开启了一轮下行行情，此次是否会复刻过往走势，引发市场关注。 数据显示，2025年3月和9月，10年期国债收益率两度触及1.90%后，均开启下行行情。对此，有分析人 士预计，短期内10年期国债收益率继续大幅上行的动力有限，建议配置盘抓住年初"开门红"的窗口把握 加仓机会。不过，仍有相当一部分资金对后市保持谨慎态度。 百亿私募洛肯国际认为，30年期超长端国债利率在2025年下半年突破前高，单边上行了超过40个基点， 反映出市场对财政扩张、长债需求弱化、通胀预期的担忧。2026年宽松金融环境不会明显转向，虽然货 币政策仍有降准降息等总量宽松空间，但央行的力度和节奏受到稳定银行净息差、防风险等多目标制 约。 东方金诚研究发展部最新报告预计，2026年利率债净供给规模将达17.4万亿元，比2025年实际净融资额 高出约1.4万亿元。在需求方面，由于实体融资需求难有实质性改善，且贷款利率等广谱利率下行趋势 未变，预计2026年债券配置资金仍在。不过，由于机构扩表难度加大，负债端稳定性下降，叠加低利率 ...

目前，美联储已于2025年下半年累计降息75个基点，但美国30年期超长期国债利率仍维持在4.8%左右 的相对高位。该利率虽较2025年中期约5.1%的高点有所回落，但仍处于历史区间的较高水平。 股债"跷跷板效应"凸显 新年伊始，A股持续走强，债市则迎来连续调整，10年期国债收益率上行至1.90%附近。去年该收益率 两次触及1.90%后，均开启了一轮下行行情，此次是否会复刻过往走势，引发市场关注。 私募机构认为，当前债市对衰退叙事的认可度已明显下降。过去那种依托利率下行、拉长久期的"躺赢 式"配置模式正逐步失效，类固收产品则有望在投资组合中迎来增长机遇。 通胀预期增强 国内经济正在进一步转暖，加上股市不断刷新高点，资金风险偏好明显上升。国家统计局最新数据显 示，2025年12月CPI(居民消费价格指数)、PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）环比上涨均为0.2%，PPI已 经是连续第五个月告别环比负增长。 业内人士分析，伴随PPI释放复苏信号，通胀预期持续升温，再加上金属板块引领大宗商品行情走高， 债券市场对2023至2024年盛行的衰退叙事态度彻底反转。即便经济只是稍有回暖，债市便保持高度警 惕；即便后续经济数据再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major concerns previously affecting the bond market have been partially digested, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations. However, with upward policy impulses, the economy and stock market are expected to experience a "good start," which may continue to pressure bond market sentiment. Positive factors should not be overlooked, as the government bond supply's duration does not strongly explain interest rate trends, and besides the 50 billion yuan bond purchase signal, the central bank has both the willingness and ability to support liquidity. The overall outlook for the bond market is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on allocation while patiently waiting for trading opportunities [4]. Group 1: Diminishing Disturbances in the Bond Market - Since the beginning of the year, the domestic bond market has remained relatively calm compared to the volatility in other asset classes like stocks and commodities. This stability is primarily due to the fading of three major disturbances: the potential redemption pressure from new public fund sales regulations, fluctuations in year-end funding, and the impact of ultra-long bond supply. The first two factors have materialized with actual negative effects being lower than expected, while the recent rise in 30-year government bond yields has adequately responded to the ultra-long bond supply shock [5]. Group 2: Key Focus Points for Bond Market Breakthrough - How substantial is the economic "good start"? From a policy perspective, fiscal policy is taking the lead, with funding and project arrangements secured. Leading indicators show that the manufacturing PMI for December 2025 exceeded expectations, and seasonal characteristics indicate a higher month-on-month growth rate for M1 in January due to the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival [6] - Can expectations for monetary policy easing be revised upward? Given the "good start" in the economy and stock market, total monetary policy easing may be further delayed, but current market expectations for rate cuts are relatively rational. The central bank has maintained a supportive stance regarding narrow liquidity [6] - What is the rhythm of ultra-long government bond supply? Historically, changes in issuance duration have shown weak explanatory power for the movements of 10-year and 30-year government bond yields. Additionally, with the total increase in government bonds being controllable, the impact of supply appears to be more like several small pulses [6] - How strong is the willingness of allocation plates to absorb? The central bank's monetary policy undoubtedly supports government bond supply, and the liquidity environment is expected to remain supportive. There is a positive outlook on whether institutions will increase their allocation of ultra-long bonds [6] - Will the stock-bond "seesaw" effect persist? In terms of cost-effectiveness, the current risk premium in the stock market has gradually fallen to the 1/2 to 3/4 percentile range since 2002, indicating a shift from significant undervaluation towards median regression. However, the static cost-effectiveness still favors stocks over bonds. Considering the economic and risk preference factors in the first quarter of 2026, the strong stock and weak bond pattern may be difficult to reverse [6][7]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On December 31, the China Securities Regulatory Commission officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds," effective from January 1, 2026, marking the full implementation of the third phase of fee reform in the public fund industry aimed at standardizing sales order, reducing investor costs, and promoting long-term investment concepts [3][7] - The new regulations significantly relax the redemption fee arrangements for bond funds, allowing individual investors to redeem index and bond funds after holding them for 7 days, and institutional investors after 30 days, alleviating liquidity concerns in the bond market [7][8] - The launch of the new direct connection system by CCB Wealth Management on December 29 enhances the standardization of the industry, with a focus on automating and standardizing data reporting, thereby improving accuracy and timeliness [10][11] Yield Performance - For the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.35%, up 5 basis points, while money market funds saw a decline to 1.19%, down 2 basis points, resulting in a yield spread of 0.16% [4][13] - The bond market exhibited a volatile trend, with the yield on 10-year government bonds remaining stable at 1.84% and the yield on 30-year bonds rising by 3 basis points to 2.25% [4][15] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to remain subdued, influenced by factors such as mixed expectations on monetary policy, significant supply pressure from long-term government bonds, and the ongoing "stock-bond seesaw" effect impacting fund flows [5][15] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 0.86%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points, while credit spreads widened by 4.12 basis points [5][17] - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads is generally positive, with significant movements in either potentially indicating redemption pressures on wealth management products [17]

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major concerns previously affecting the bond market have been partially alleviated, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations[1] - The bond market remains relatively calm compared to other asset classes, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.84%[10] - The recent rise in the 30-year government bond yield has been a moderate response to the supply impact of long-term bonds[12] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Economic performance in early 2026 is expected to be supported by a fiscal policy injection of 1 trillion yuan, with 625 billion yuan in special bonds already allocated[17] - Market expectations for monetary policy easing may be delayed, but the current expectations for rate cuts are considered rational[22] - The supply of long-term government bonds is manageable, with a planned issuance of approximately 1.54 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2026[24] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The willingness of institutional investors to increase their allocation to long-term bonds is viewed positively, with net purchases of long-term local bonds reaching 1.90 trillion yuan in 2025[28] - The current risk premium in the stock market has decreased to the 1/2 to 3/4 percentile range since 2002, indicating a shift towards median valuation[29] - The bond market's overall outlook is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on asset allocation while waiting for trading opportunities[33]

新华财经北京1月6日电 2026年首批政府债券于近日启动发行，受供给担忧冲击，债市收益率连续两个 交易日大幅上行。截至6日早盘，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率上涨2.4BP，报1.8855%，接近2025年 3月中旬高点。30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率上涨1.7BP，再度突破2.30%。10年期国开活跃券 250215收益率也创下2025年9月以来新高，盘中高点报1.9775%，日内涨幅达到2.75BP。 前一交易日，上述债券品种收益率涨幅均超过2BP。 对于年初的政府债券发行高峰可能对债市造成的冲击，国盛证券首席固收分析师杨业伟表示："需要看 到，这并非趋势，而是节奏性的影响。"据他分析，2026年财政或将保持适度扩张，政府债券同比多增 或明显低于2025年。这意味着全年来看，融资相较于2025年增量或有限。那么1月份集中投放，则意味 着后续继续投放空间下降。"因此，这种影响更多是节奏性的，不会带来趋势性影响。随着 1 月末信贷 和政府债券冲量高峰期过去，对债市的影响也将逐步渐退。" 不仅如此，杨业伟还表示，进入新的一年后，一方面，根据巴塞尔框架SPR31最终修订文件，银行账簿 利率冲击情形中 ...

分析师：蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：周佳卉 登记编号：S0890525040001 投资要点 1.1 《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息披露管理办法》正式落地 收益率表现： 上周（2025.12.22-2025.12.28，下同）现金管理类产品近7日年化收益率录得 1.30%，环比上升3BP；同期货币型基金近7日年化收益率报1.21%，环比上行2BP。 上周各期限 纯固收和固收+产品收益普遍上升。 受益于人民币汇率走强（阶段性突破7.0关键关口）等因 素，权益市场震荡回暖，对债市形成阶段性扰动；但得益于资金面呵护托底，债市整体延续震 荡走势。全周来看，10年国债活跃券收益率较上周基本持平至1.84%，30年国债活跃券收益率 下行1BP至2.22%。 展望后市，债市情绪料将继续受到抑制，整体大概率维持震荡格局： 其 一，货币政策虽整体延续适度宽松基调，但市场对进一步宽松的预期分歧犹存；其二，当前债 市对基本面数据的敏感度持续偏低，利多消化空间有限；其三，尽管当前市场风险偏好较11月 前有所回落，但在低利率环境下，居民资产向权益市场转移的中长期趋势仍在延续，优质股权 资产作为新财富蓄水池的 ...