2026 年 03 月 02 日 债券研究周报 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 [Table_Title] 两会前，债市情绪转为谨慎 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：新年复工，债市情绪继续回暖* 颜子琦》——2026-02-25 《固定收益深度研究：读懂 2026（一）：各省市 "十五五"规划建议中的产业蓝图*颜子琦》—— 2026-02-12 《债券研究周报：10 年国债破位 1.80%，债市情 绪边际回升*颜子琦》——2026-02-10 《债券研究周报：债市情绪继续谨慎*颜子琦》— —2026-02-02 《债券研究周报：长债修复后，债市情绪仍偏谨慎 *颜子琦》——2026-01-26 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：最新一周债市卖方与买方的观点情绪变 化。 从我们统计的债市情绪指数来看，上周（02 月 24 日-03 月 02 日）债市 出现较大幅度调整，带动买卖方情绪指数回落，买方情绪相对回落更多。 地产、通胀的后续演变还需观察，关注预期差带来的机会，两会期间债 市仍有上涨可能，建议逢调整进行布局。 卖方视角，债市情绪有所下降。基于对 28 家卖方机构观点的统计 ...

国债期货日报 2026/3/2 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.530 | 0.13% T主力成交量 | 77301 | 4445↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.080 | 0.09% TF主力成交量 | 46442 | -15942↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.464 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 23875 | -2843↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.740 | 0.55% TL主力成交量 | 86179 | 15112↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2606-2603价差 | 0.37 | +0.13↑ T06-TL06价差 | -4.21 | -0.53↓ | | | T2606-2603价差 | 0.03 | +0.09↑ TF06-T06价差 | -2.45 | -0.06↓ | | | TF2606-2603价差 | 0.09 | -0.02↓ TS06-T06价差 | -6.07 | - ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月01日 超长债周报 30 年国债冲高回落 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：春节假期出行人数创新高，节后第一周"沪七条"发布，A 股继续反弹，债市先抑后扬，超长债再度下跌。成交方面，上周超长债 交投活跃度大幅下降，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差 缩窄，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 2 月 27 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 44BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，12 月经济下行压力有所缓解。我 们测算的 12 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.5%，增速较 11 月回升 0.4%。通 胀方面，1 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-1.4%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认为， 3 月债市先抑后扬。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。2025 年四季度无增发国债，短期政府托底经济力 度减弱，2025 年四季度 GDP 增速已经回落到了后疫情时代最低水平，我 国经济依然承压。同时从中央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年 党中央更加重视高质量发展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次序有所 ...

不过，受宽基ETF被赎回的影响，股票型基金规模缩水超3400亿元。在"股债跷跷板"效应作用下，债券 基金规模也减少了4000多亿元。 公募基金规模连续10个月创历史新高 中国基金业协会最新披露的数据显示，截至2026年1月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共165家，其中基 金管理公司150家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构15家。以上机构管理的公募基金资产净值合计37.77万 亿元。 | 灵别 | 基金数量(只) | 份期(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2026/1/31) | (2026/1/31) | (2026/1/31) | (2025/12/31) | (2025/12/31) | (2025/12/31) | | 股票基金 | 3,494 | 39, 194. 86 | 57.087. 41 | 3.442 | 39,527.06 | 60.525.58 | | 债券基金 | 3.893 | 87.346.34 | 105.309. 34 | 3.884 ...

【导读】公募基金规模达到37.77万亿元，再创历史新高 在春季躁动行情、增量资金涌入等多重因素共同作用下，公募基金规模再创历史新高。 2月27日，中国基金业协会发布的最新一期公募基金市场数据显示，截至今年1月底，公募基金总规模达到37.77万亿元，连续10个月创新高。 从各类型公募基金规模变化上看，混合、货币及其他基金是推动公募基金规模增长的主力军，上述类型基金规模均实现千亿元级增长。从环比变化看，基 金中基金（FOF）份额环比大增15.05%，位居各类型基金榜首，其他基金也迎来11.06%的环比净申购。 公募基金规模连续10个月创历史新高 中国基金业协会最新披露的数据显示，截至2026年1月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共165家，其中基金管理公司150家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构 15家。以上机构管理的公募基金资产净值合计37.77万亿元。 | 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2026/1/31) | (2026/1/3 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 马年已至，万象更新，金融市场启新程。A股"慢牛" 行情能否持续？债市走势如何？分析人士表示，春 节假期期间，外围市场氛围向好，资金依然青睐新质生产力赛道。马年首个交易日，A股在消费复苏及 流动性充裕带动下有望迎来"开门红"，但交易者需注意关税不确定性、地缘风险、政策预期变化等。春 节前机构"持券过节" 意愿增强，预计债市整体情绪偏乐观。愿期货日报读者策马扬鞭，占先机赢全 局。 利多不断 A股或迎"开门红" 春节假期期间，外围市场氛围中性偏暖，欧美股市普涨，港股走势分化。美国三大指数整体震荡上行， 科技股反弹，欧洲斯托克600指数创下历史新高。2月20日，恒生指数和恒生科技指数出现下跌，但AI 与人形机器人概念股逆势走强，资金依然青睐新质生产力赛道。 从高频数据看，消费市场迎来"开门红"。商务部数据显示，春节期间全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售 额同比增长10.6%，78个重点商圈客流量、营业额分别大涨23.2%和33.2%。全国出游人次突破5.2亿，较 2019年同期大幅增长，冰雪游、避寒游、入境游等主题量价齐升，跨区域人员流动创 ...

超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 2 月 13 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 45BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，12 月经济下行压力有所缓解。我 们测算的 12 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.5%，增速较 11 月回升 0.4%。通 胀方面，1 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-1.4%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认为， 近期债市回调概率更大。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要 来自于中央加杠杆的托底。2025 年四季度无增发国债，短期政府托底经 济力度减弱，2025年四季度 GDP增速已经回落到了后疫情时代最低水平， 我国经济依然承压。同时从中央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次序有 所调降。另一方面，春节前后属于统计局数据真空期，当前利率绝对水 平偏低，A 股春季躁动量价齐升，预计股债跷跷板效应强化。近期 30-10 利差高位企稳，预计短期利差高位震荡为主。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 超长债周报 30-10 期限利差继续高位震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：1 月通胀继续回暖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden resignation of Jiang Xiaoli, a prominent fund manager at Tianhong Fund, raises questions about the future management and performance of the funds she oversaw, particularly in the fixed income sector [4][7]. Group 1: Jiang Xiaoli's Departure - Jiang Xiaoli announced her resignation on February 9, managing a total of 350.24 billion yuan across 10 funds, citing personal reasons and the need for a break to focus on family and health [4][5]. - She has a long history in the industry, having worked at Tianhong Fund since 2009, with significant roles including fixed income business director and manager of multiple funds [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Fund Management - Following Jiang's departure, Tianhong Fund stated that the investment strategies and risk-return characteristics of the "fixed income+" products will remain unchanged, with the existing fund managers continuing to adhere to established investment processes and risk control standards [7]. - The firm employs a multi-manager model for its fixed income business, which is expected to maintain consistency in investment decisions despite the leadership change [7]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Challenges - As of February 9, the performance of the funds managed by the new manager, Ma Long, has been underwhelming, with returns of 0.41% and 0.25% for two bond funds since his appointment [7]. - Tianhong Fund's total public fund scale reached 1.33 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a significant portion in money market funds, indicating a heavy reliance on fixed income products and a lack of growth in equity funds [8]. - The firm faces challenges in its equity fund segment, with many funds underperforming and a notable decline in its ranking within the industry for non-money market fund management [9].

Group 1 - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a comprehensive recovery, with sectors such as technology, precious metals, non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, semiconductors, and optical modules leading the market in growth [1] - The net value of high-rights financial products saw a recovery, while the bond market faced pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, leading to a "stock in, bond out" trend [1] - By the end of December 2025, the comprehensive net loss rate of financial products decreased to 0.51%, down 39 basis points from the end of 2024, with seven financial companies achieving "0 net loss" for their public offerings [1] Group 2 - The bond market ended its two-year bull run in 2025, entering a phase of adjustment influenced by fluctuating policy expectations and the stock-bond seesaw effect [2] - The net loss rate of public financial products fluctuated significantly, peaking at 2.24% in January and February 2025 before declining to 0.54% over the next four months [2] - By the end of December 2025, the net loss rate returned to the 0.5% range, reflecting the impact of the strong equity market [2] Group 3 - As of the end of 2025, Huihua Wealth Management, Boyin Wealth Management, and Hangyin Wealth Management had the highest net loss rates among public products, with Huihua at 9.27% and Boyin at 2.22% [4] - Four wealth management subsidiaries and three joint venture companies achieved "0 net loss" for their public products by the end of 2025 [4] Group 4 - The structure of net loss products shifted significantly, with equity and mixed financial products seeing a substantial decline in net loss rates, while fixed-income products became the main type of net loss products in 2025 [6] - The average net value growth rate for public equity financial products reached 22.71%, with some companies like Xinyin Wealth Management achieving a remarkable 36.55% growth [6] - In contrast, the average net value growth rate for fixed-income products was only 2.24%, reflecting a weaker performance compared to equity products [1][12] Group 5 - The average net value growth rate for mixed financial products varied, with Ningyin Wealth Management, Huihua Wealth Management, and Hangyin Wealth Management leading at 15.44%, 12.31%, and 8.84% respectively [10] - The average net value growth rate for fixed-income public financial products was generally between 2% and 2.5%, with some companies like Nanyin Wealth Management and Hangyin Wealth Management performing slightly better [12] - Foreign currency fixed-income financial products had an overall average net value growth rate of 3.90%, with Xinyin Wealth Management and Beiyin Wealth Management exceeding 4% [14]

Group 1 - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a comprehensive recovery, with sectors such as technology, precious metals, non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, semiconductors, and optical modules leading the market in growth [1] - The overall net value of high-rights financial products saw a recovery, while the bond market faced pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, leading to a "stock in, bond out" trend [1] - By the end of December 2025, the comprehensive net value decline rate of financial products dropped to 0.51%, a decrease of 39 basis points from the end of 2024, with seven financial companies achieving "0 net value decline" for their public offerings [1] Group 2 - The bond market ended its two-year bull run in 2025, entering a phase of adjustment influenced by fluctuating policy expectations and the stock-bond seesaw effect [2] - The net value decline rate of public financial products fluctuated significantly, peaking at 2.24% in January and February 2025 before declining to 0.54% over the next four months [2] - By the end of December 2025, the net value decline rate returned to the 0.5% range, reflecting the impact of the strong equity market [2] Group 3 - As of the end of 2025, Huihua Wealth Management, Boyin Wealth Management, and Hangyin Wealth Management had the highest net value decline rates among public products, with Huihua Wealth Management at 9.27% [4] - Four wealth management subsidiaries and three joint venture wealth management companies achieved "0 net value decline" for their public products by the end of 2025 [4] Group 4 - The structure of net value decline in the financial market changed significantly, with equity and mixed financial products seeing a substantial drop in decline rates, while fixed-income products became the main type of products with net value decline [6] - In 2025, the average net value growth rate for equity public financial products reached 22.71%, with some companies like Xinyin Wealth Management achieving a remarkable 36.55% [7] - Conversely, some companies like Bank of China Wealth Management and ICBC Wealth Management had poor performance, with average net value growth rates below 5% [8] Group 5 - The average net value growth rate for fixed-income public financial products was relatively weak, with most companies reporting rates between 2% and 2.5% [13] - The average maximum drawdown for fixed-income products was controlled within 1%, with a small portion exceeding 2% [13] - Foreign currency fixed-income financial products had a slightly higher average net value growth rate of 3.90%, with some companies exceeding 4% [15]