人民财讯1月11日电，随着商品市场走强，债市增量资金流入正在放缓。当前，市场预期更敏感的30年 期国债期货，主力2603合约价格在过去一周，盘中创下2024年10月份以来最低点。低利率环境下资产配 置结构调整，股市跷跷板效应明显，多家债券私募机构表示，债市增量资金流入或将进一步放缓。 ...

随着商品市场走强，债市增量资金流入正在放缓。 当前，市场预期更敏感的30年期国债期货，主力2603合约价格在过去一周，盘中创下2024年10月份以来最低 点。低利率环境下资产配置结构调整，股市跷跷板效应明显，多家债券私募机构表示，债市增量资金流入或将 进一步放缓。 一般而言，大宗商品的涨价传导，从黄金开始，随后以铜为首的有色品种开始涨价，随后整体黑色系，以及原 油价格开始有所反应，继而向化工和农作物产品。虽然链条并不一定按部就班地传导，但背后的经济逻辑基本 还是上下游关系驱动和商品金融属性向实物属性的传导。 随着商品市场走强，市场对于再通胀的重定价和对于财政持续性的担忧在不断升温。当前，无论是在美国、欧 洲、日本或是南美地区，整体利率曲线都呈现陡峭化移动的状态，特别是超长端30年，持续徘徊在历史高位， 买盘兴趣寥寥。 目前，在经过多次降息之后，美国30年期超长期国债利率仍高达4.8%左右。这一利率水平较2025年中期的高 点（约5.1%）有所回落，但仍处于相对高位。而日本30年期国债利率约3.4%，在20年来高点，而40年期国债 利率约3.7%，接近历史最高水平 。 债市增量资金在放缓 国内经济正在进一步转暖 ...

热点追踪 （2026年1月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪锡 沪深300期货 短纤 不锈钢豆油红枣 菜粕 纤维板 豆二 10豆一粳米年期国债期货鸡蛋玉米 棕榈油 上证沪金50期货苯乙烯 低硫燃料油 橡胶 铁矿石 PVC豆粕 PTA 尿素2玉米淀粉 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 白糖乙二醇菜油沥青 20号胶 沪锌 生猪5年期国债期货 聚丙烯 硅铁焦炭 纯碱 郑棉棉纱热轧卷板 沪铅沪银 烧碱玻璃 30对二甲苯 年期国债期货 LPG 塑料 原油 螺纹钢 锰硅 沪铜国际铜 丁二烯橡胶 集运指数(欧线) 氧化铝 工业硅 纸浆 甲醇 花生 焦煤 沪镍 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 每日成交量变化 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪深300期货 沪锡 红枣 豆油 短纤 不锈钢 棕榈油 上证50期货 纤维板 苯乙烯 沪金 豆一 低硫燃料油 菜粕 10年期国债期货 ...

单品种看，昨日资金主要流入的商品期货（主连合约）品种有焦煤、镍、纯碱、氧化铝和不锈钢，分别流入5.46 亿元、4.46 亿元、3.15 亿元、2.95 亿元和 2.01 亿元；主要流出的品种有碳酸锂、黄金、铜、铝和棉花，分别流出19.20 亿元、11.65 亿元、8.39 亿元、4.19 亿元和3.58 亿元。从主力合约看，黑色、化 工和农产品板块呈流入状态，金融和有色金属板块呈流出状态。 整体看，昨日商品期货（主连合约）资金呈大幅流出状态。有色金属板块流出较多，重点关注流出较多的碳酸锂、黄金、铜、铝、多晶硅和白银，同时关注 逆势流入的镍和氧化铝。黑色、化工和农产品板块小幅流入，重点关注流入较多的焦煤、纯碱、不锈钢、玻璃和豆油，同时关注逆势流出的棉花、苹果和 LPG。金融板块重点关注中证1000股指期货和30年期国债期货。（徽商期货 方正） 图为商品期货资金流出前十名（亿元） 图为板块资金流入额（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流入前十名（亿元） 图为金融期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为商品期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） ...

中国金融期货交易所的金融期货期权成交量为2,742.7万手，占全国市场的2.88%；成交额为23.87万亿 元，占全国市场的26.29%。成交金额排名前三的品种分别是中证1000股指期货、中证500股指期货、30 年期国债期货。 截至2025年12月底，我国共上市期货期权品种164个。 期货日报网讯中国期货业协会最新统计资料表明，以单边计算，12月全国期货市场成交量为9.51亿手,成 交额为90.81万亿元，同比分别增长45.17%和58.55%。1-12月全国期货市场累计成交量为90.74亿手，累 计成交额为766.25万亿元，同比分别增长17.4%和23.74%。 其中，12月，按照成交额统计，排名各商品期货交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的白银、黄金、铜，郑 商所的PTA、烧碱、玻璃，大商所的焦煤、棕榈油、豆粕，广期所的碳酸锂期货、多晶硅期货、铂期 货；按照成交量统计，排名各交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的白银、螺纹钢、白银期权，郑商所的玻 璃、PTA、甲醇，大商所的豆粕、聚氯乙烯、焦煤，广期所的碳酸锂期货、碳酸锂期权、工业硅期货。 ...

中国金融期货交易所的金融期货期权成交量为2742.7万手，占全国市场的2.88%；成交额为23.87万亿 元，占全国市场的26.29%。成交金额排名前三的品种分别是中证1000股指期货、中证500股指期货、30 年期国债期货。（记者刘开雄） 中国期货业协会1月8日发布数据显示，2025年1月至12月，全国期货市场累计成交量为90.74亿手，累计 成交额为766.25万亿元，同比分别增长17.4%和23.74%。 其中，按照成交额统计，各商品期货交易所排名前三的品种分别为上海期货交易所的白银、黄金、铜， 郑州商品交易所的PTA（精对苯二甲酸）、烧碱、玻璃，大连商品交易所的焦煤、棕榈油、豆粕，广州 期货交易所的碳酸锂期货、多晶硅期货、铂期货。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 ...

图为板块资金流入额（亿元） 单品种看，昨日资金主要流入的商品期货（主连合约）品种有碳酸锂、螺纹钢、氧化铝、沥青和铁矿石，分别流入20.25 亿元、4.55 亿元、4.21 亿元、3.76 亿元和3.75 亿元；主要流出的品种有黄金、铜、铝、多晶硅和苹果，分别流出5.95 亿元、3.17 亿元、2.26 亿元、1.42 亿元和0.74 亿元。从主力合约看，有色 金属、黑色、农产品和化工板块呈流入状态，金融板块呈流出状态。 整体看，昨日商品期货（主连合约）资金呈大幅流入状态。有色金属和黑色板块流入较多，重点关注流入较多的碳酸锂、螺纹钢、氧化铝、铁矿石和白银， 同时关注逆势流出的黄金、铜、铝和不锈钢。化工和农产品板块小幅流入，重点关注流入较多的沥青、豆粕和豆油，同时关注逆势流出的苹果和LPG。金融 板块重点关注沪深300股指期货和30年期国债期货。（徽商期货 方正） 图为商品期货资金流入前十名（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流出前十名（亿元） 图为商品期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 图为金融期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent capital inflows and outflows in commodity futures, indicating a mixed market sentiment with specific focus on metals and agricultural products [1]. Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major inflows were observed in silver (¥2.289 billion), copper (¥0.690 billion), rubber (¥0.278 billion), platinum (¥0.269 billion), and iron ore (¥0.193 billion) [1]. - The black and non-ferrous metal sectors showed a positive inflow trend, particularly in silver, copper, platinum, iron ore, and lithium carbonate [1]. - Financial futures, specifically the CSI 500 index futures and 30-year treasury futures, are highlighted as areas of interest for capital inflows [1]. Group 2: Capital Outflows - Significant outflows were noted in cotton (¥1.154 billion), PTA (¥0.587 billion), white sugar (¥0.422 billion), vegetable oil (¥0.270 billion), and rapeseed meal (¥0.270 billion) [1]. - The chemical and agricultural sectors are experiencing outflows, with particular attention to cotton, PTA, white sugar, vegetable oil, methanol, and paraxylene [1]. - Conversely, rubber and PVC are noted for their unexpected inflows despite the overall outflow trend in the chemical and agricultural sectors [1].

证券研究报告 乘政策东风、顺产业需求： 期货行业专题报告系列之一 西部证券研发中心 2026年1月6日 分析师 | 孙寅 S0800524120007 邮箱地址sunyin@reserch.xbmail.com.cn 张佳蓉 S0800524080001 邮箱地址zhangjiarong@research.xbmail.com.cn 核心结论 行业评级 超配 前次评级 超配 评级变动 维持 近一年行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 多元金融 沪深300 相对表现(%) 1个月 3个月 12个月 多元金融 3.83 0.14 22.26 沪深300 2.91 1.66 25.17 资料来源：西部证券研发中心,截至2025/1/5 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 2 我国期货行业在规范改革下深化发展、不断壮大，行业成交额持续扩张。经过三十余年发展，我国期货 市场已形成了"5+1"的期货交易所体系，截至2025年10月底，我国共上市期货期权品种151个，已覆盖 农产品、金属、能源、化工等多个国民经济重要领域。从规模来看，截 ...