今日 2 年期国债期货主力合约开盘报 102.35 元, 全天在 102.324-102.368 元区间震荡，最终收于 102.358 元，较前一交易 日上涨 0.024 元或 0.02%。成交量 38830 手，持仓量 68972 手，较 前一交易日减少 889 手；品种总持仓量 75192 手，减少 201 手。价 格走势相对平稳,反映市场对短期资金面预期稳定。 报告周期:日报 成文日期:2026年1月8日 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0000164 電筒開货目报 一、市场概况 今日（2026年１月８日）国债期货市场全线上涨,延续近期震 荡上行趋势。各期限品种呈现明显的陡峭化行情特征,长期品种涨 幅显著高于短期品种,反映市场对货币政策宽松预期及长端利率下 行的乐观情绪。30年期国债期货表现尤为强势, 主力合约收涨 0.37%；10 年期、5 年期和 2 年期合约分别上涨 0.15%、0.09%和 0.02%。成交量方面，各品种交投活跃，30年期合约成交量达 124227手,创近期较高水平。 二、各品种行情走势分析 5 年期国债期货主力合约开盘价 105.535 元 ...

中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 1月10日—11日，2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会在上海成功举办。此次会议由中国首席经济学家论坛 组委会主办，广州开发区控股集团有限公司联合主办，上海市虹口区金融服务中心、上海首席经济学家 金融发展中心、粤开证券股份有限公司、上海古宇经济信息咨询联合承办，广开首席产业研究院、上海 虹口北外滩国际金融学会、森松国际控股协办，汇添富基金、华福证券、汇正财经提供支持。 上海市委金融办副主任陶昌盛在致辞中介绍，"十四五"期间上海国际金融中心建设成效显著，科创板引 入做市商制度、债券市场"科技板"设立、30年期国债期货等产品推出，债券通"南向通"、利率"互换 通"落地，跨境人民币结算量持续扩大，金融服务实体经济、对外开放水平与发展生态均实现提质。面 向"十五五"，上海正制定国际金融中心建设专项规划，将推进金融高水平开放、发展跨境与离岸金融、 建设国际再保险中心，加大对科技创新、绿色转型等重点领域的金融支持，强化金融法治与监管协同， 为中外资金融机构展业搭建更好平台，期待论坛专家贡献前瞻性思路，助力金融高质量发展。 虹口区副区长陈帅在致辞中表示，作为上海国际金融中心建设的核心承载 ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月10日-11日，由中国首席经济学家论坛组委会主办，广州开发区控股集团有限公司联合主办，上海市虹口区金融服务中心、上海首席 经济学家金融发展中心、粤开证券股份有限公司、上海古宇经济信息咨询联合承办，广开首席产业研究院、上海虹口北外滩国际金融学会、森松国际控股协 办，汇添富基金、华福证券、汇正财经提供支持的"2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会"，在位于上海虹口北外滩的W酒店成功举办。 本次年会为期两天，全国政协常委、民建中央原副主席周汉民，上海市委金融办副主任陶昌盛，虹口区副区长陈帅，中国资本市场学会秘书长魏刚，中国首 席经济学家论坛理事长连平，中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成，以及来自各金融机构和企业的高管、各位首席经济学家出席本次论坛年会。论坛同 步还开设有"产融协同赋新能・生态共建启未来" 平行分论坛。 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局后的关键推进年，全球经济格局深度调整，中国经济正处于结构转型与高质量发展的关键阶段。本次年会以聚焦全球政经变 革、解码中国经济转型路径为核心，吸引超50位国内外顶尖金融机构首席经济学家及行业专家齐聚一堂，围绕金融结构转型、宏观经济调控、收入分配优 化 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed trend on January 12, 2026, with some commodities rising significantly and others declining [5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations, and factors such as macro - economy, policy, and geopolitics affect their prices, with different price trends expected for each commodity. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Metals - **沪铜**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The supply side may face production cuts, the demand side has strong terminal demand but weak copper product demand, showing a structure of strong expectation and weak reality, with a medium - to - long - term upward trend after a phased correction [8]. - **碳酸锂**: Affected by the export tax - rebate adjustment, the market has a strong expectation of rush - export, driving the futures price to rise sharply. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to be strong under the stimulation of rush - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production needs to be noted [10]. - **焦煤**: The spot price of coking coal is relatively stable, the supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has a recovery in demand from coking enterprises and steel mills. The price is expected to be volatile and strong, but chasing high prices has risks [21][22]. Energy - **原油**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, the demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation affect the price, which is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **沥青**: The supply is expected to decrease, the demand in the north is affected by the end of construction, and the demand in the south is average. Geopolitical events in Venezuela affect the raw material supply, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly, with the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil showing a strong and volatile trend [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is low, the supply has new capacity and a decrease in maintenance, the demand is in the off - season. The macro - environment is positive, but the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **塑料**: The开工率 is at a medium level, the downstream demand of agricultural film is in the off - season, the supply has new capacity, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][19]. - **PVC**: The supply side has an increase in开工率, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and there may be a rush - export phenomenon before the cancellation of export tax - rebates. The 3 - 5 contracts are expected to be strong and volatile [20]. - **尿素**: After a continuous rise, it enters a correction stage. The supply side has an increase in daily output, the demand side has weak support, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [23]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with the CSI 1000 rising the most at 3.75% [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had different degrees of increase or remained flat, with the 30 - year rising the most at 0.30% [6].

新年伊始，A股持续走强，债市则迎来连续调整，10年期国债收益率上行至1.90%附近。去年该收益率 两次触及1.90%后，均开启了一轮下行行情，此次是否会复刻过往走势，引发市场关注。 数据显示，2025年3月和9月，10年期国债收益率两度触及1.90%后，均开启下行行情。对此，有分析人 士预计，短期内10年期国债收益率继续大幅上行的动力有限，建议配置盘抓住年初"开门红"的窗口把握 加仓机会。不过，仍有相当一部分资金对后市保持谨慎态度。 百亿私募洛肯国际认为，30年期超长端国债利率在2025年下半年突破前高，单边上行了超过40个基点， 反映出市场对财政扩张、长债需求弱化、通胀预期的担忧。2026年宽松金融环境不会明显转向，虽然货 币政策仍有降准降息等总量宽松空间，但央行的力度和节奏受到稳定银行净息差、防风险等多目标制 约。 东方金诚研究发展部最新报告预计，2026年利率债净供给规模将达17.4万亿元，比2025年实际净融资额 高出约1.4万亿元。在需求方面，由于实体融资需求难有实质性改善，且贷款利率等广谱利率下行趋势 未变，预计2026年债券配置资金仍在。不过，由于机构扩表难度加大，负债端稳定性下降，叠加低利率 ...

目前，美联储已于2025年下半年累计降息75个基点，但美国30年期超长期国债利率仍维持在4.8%左右 的相对高位。该利率虽较2025年中期约5.1%的高点有所回落，但仍处于历史区间的较高水平。 股债"跷跷板效应"凸显 新年伊始，A股持续走强，债市则迎来连续调整，10年期国债收益率上行至1.90%附近。去年该收益率 两次触及1.90%后，均开启了一轮下行行情，此次是否会复刻过往走势，引发市场关注。 私募机构认为，当前债市对衰退叙事的认可度已明显下降。过去那种依托利率下行、拉长久期的"躺赢 式"配置模式正逐步失效，类固收产品则有望在投资组合中迎来增长机遇。 通胀预期增强 国内经济正在进一步转暖，加上股市不断刷新高点，资金风险偏好明显上升。国家统计局最新数据显 示，2025年12月CPI(居民消费价格指数)、PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）环比上涨均为0.2%，PPI已 经是连续第五个月告别环比负增长。 业内人士分析，伴随PPI释放复苏信号，通胀预期持续升温，再加上金属板块引领大宗商品行情走高， 债券市场对2023至2024年盛行的衰退叙事态度彻底反转。即便经济只是稍有回暖，债市便保持高度警 惕；即便后续经济数据再 ...

人民财讯1月11日电，随着商品市场走强，债市增量资金流入正在放缓。当前，市场预期更敏感的30年 期国债期货，主力2603合约价格在过去一周，盘中创下2024年10月份以来最低点。低利率环境下资产配 置结构调整，股市跷跷板效应明显，多家债券私募机构表示，债市增量资金流入或将进一步放缓。 ...

随着商品市场走强，债市增量资金流入正在放缓。 当前，市场预期更敏感的30年期国债期货，主力2603合约价格在过去一周，盘中创下2024年10月份以来最低 点。低利率环境下资产配置结构调整，股市跷跷板效应明显，多家债券私募机构表示，债市增量资金流入或将 进一步放缓。 一般而言，大宗商品的涨价传导，从黄金开始，随后以铜为首的有色品种开始涨价，随后整体黑色系，以及原 油价格开始有所反应，继而向化工和农作物产品。虽然链条并不一定按部就班地传导，但背后的经济逻辑基本 还是上下游关系驱动和商品金融属性向实物属性的传导。 随着商品市场走强，市场对于再通胀的重定价和对于财政持续性的担忧在不断升温。当前，无论是在美国、欧 洲、日本或是南美地区，整体利率曲线都呈现陡峭化移动的状态，特别是超长端30年，持续徘徊在历史高位， 买盘兴趣寥寥。 目前，在经过多次降息之后，美国30年期超长期国债利率仍高达4.8%左右。这一利率水平较2025年中期的高 点（约5.1%）有所回落，但仍处于相对高位。而日本30年期国债利率约3.4%，在20年来高点，而40年期国债 利率约3.7%，接近历史最高水平 。 债市增量资金在放缓 国内经济正在进一步转暖 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a Hotspot Tracking released on January 9, 2026, by the Research and Consulting Department [2] Group 2: Daily Data Analysis Daily Price Changes and Fund Flows - The report presents the daily price changes and fund flows of various futures and commodities including Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, etc [5] Daily Fund Changes - It shows the percentage changes in funds for a wide range of futures and commodities [7] Daily Trading Volume Changes - The percentage changes in trading volume for different futures and commodities are provided [9] Daily Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five commodities with daily fund inflows are Apple, CSI 500 Futures, CSI 1000 Futures, Wire Rod, and Fuel Oil; the top five with daily fund outflows are Nickel, Peanut, Coking Coal, Pulp, and Alumina [11] Position Value Proportion - The position value proportions of different futures and commodities are given, with CSI 1000 Futures at 16%, CSI 500 Futures at 13%, Shanghai Gold at 11%, etc [14]

Core Viewpoint - The overall commodity futures market experienced significant capital outflow, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, while certain sectors like black, chemical, and agricultural products saw slight inflows [1]. Group 1: Capital Inflows - The main commodities with capital inflows included coking coal (5.46 billion), nickel (4.46 billion), soda ash (3.15 billion), alumina (2.95 billion), and stainless steel (2.01 billion) [1]. - The black, chemical, and agricultural product sectors showed a slight inflow, with notable inflows in coking coal, soda ash, stainless steel, glass, and soybean oil [1]. Group 2: Capital Outflows - The primary commodities with capital outflows were lithium carbonate (19.20 billion), gold (11.65 billion), copper (8.39 billion), aluminum (4.19 billion), and cotton (3.58 billion) [1]. - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced significant outflows, particularly in lithium carbonate, gold, copper, aluminum, polysilicon, and silver [1]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The financial sector showed outflows, with a focus on the CSI 1000 index futures and 30-year treasury futures [1]. - The overall trend indicates a substantial outflow in the commodity futures market, with specific attention needed on the sectors experiencing both inflows and outflows [1].