投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货多数上涨，新能源材料涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251126 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 4473 | 0.85% | 101% | -3.42% | -3.14% | 14.08% | | | 上证50期货 | 2959.2 | 0.50% | Q 43% | -1 88% | -1 00% | 10.50% | | | 中证500期货 | 6900 | THOS | Task | -4 33 | -5.35% | 21.20% | | | 中证1000期货 | 7172 | 1 0 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Market Summary - As of the close on November 24, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Methanol rose over 3%, glass nearly 3%, and ethylene glycol (EG), corn, cotton yarn, and polysilicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and pure benzene fell over 2%, and styrene (EB), coking coal, palm oil, and urea dropped over 1% [5][6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84%. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.06%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.15% [6]. - As of 15:18 on November 24, in terms of capital flow, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an inflow of 1.456 billion yuan, Shanghai Silver 2602 had an inflow of 260 million yuan, and Shanghai Copper 2601 had an inflow of 240 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 7.289 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 4.312 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 2.562 billion yuan [6]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened low and trended higher, showing a strong oscillation. Data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, but with a data vacuum before the next Fed meeting, the uncertainty of rate cut expectations is high, and the market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively large, causing the US dollar index to continue to rebound [8]. - Nvidia's strong earnings boosted optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand. Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in Q2 next year. Refined copper imports decreased month-on-month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have also been accumulating [8]. - The 770th document has not been implemented, causing cautious operations in recycled copper rod enterprises. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month-on-month decline of over 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [8]. - Overall, the Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a stalemate, and the market believes the probability of a rate cut in December is small, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the off-season demand and increasing SHFE inventories have weakened market confidence. Short-term copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to Fed rate cut expectations [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, dropping nearly 3% during the day. As of October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 21, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In October, China's energy storage battery production was 54.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, year-on-year increases of 21.1% and 20% [11]. - The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and demand. Although there is news of the resumption of production at the Jiuxiaowo mine, the authenticity is uncertain. Until the actual negative impact is realized, there is support at the bottom of the market [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The end of the peak demand season, combined with increased production and exports, has led to a supply surplus in the crude oil market [12][13]. - EIA data shows that refined oil inventories increased more than expected, but due to increased net exports, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected. US crude oil production is near a record high. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [12][13]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand due to the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US manufacturing index, and the unclear prospects of US interest rate cuts. The supply surplus in the crude oil market has become a consensus, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year-on-year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) [14]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed performance. The national asphalt shipments increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. Asphalt refinery inventory ratios remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years [14]. - With the decline in crude oil prices and the end of road construction in the north, demand is expected to weaken further. With the stable production of some refineries, the asphalt operating rate will increase. Asphalt futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly compared to last year [16]. - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%. The production ratio of standard-grade PP increased to around 29%. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years [16]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Downstream demand is in the late peak season, and orders are limited. The lack of large-scale purchases and the absence of anti-competition policies have led to limited market support. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with stable orders, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film peak season is ending, and demand in the north is starting to decline [17]. - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and traders are cautious about the future market. Without anti-competition policies, and with the supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastic prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [17][19]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased slightly to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly, remaining at a relatively low level [20]. - India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC and the likely cancellation of anti-dumping duties have alleviated concerns about exports to India, and export orders increased last week. Social inventories increased slightly last week and remain high, indicating significant inventory pressure [20]. - In 2025, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. With positive chlor-alkali comprehensive profits and new production capacity coming online, the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly recently [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and trended higher, with a decline during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased, and the self-pickup price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal also decreased [21]. - In October, China's coal imports decreased year-on-year. The utilization rate of coking coal mine production capacity increased slightly. As of November 16, the cumulative import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was large, and the daily customs clearance vehicles may increase next week [21][22]. - Under the winter coal supply and price stabilization policy, the tight supply expectation is partially offset. Mine inventories have increased significantly, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Steel mill operating rates and molten iron production increased this week, but profits are weakening. There is potential bullishness in mine production cuts at the end of the year, so be cautious about potential price rebounds [22]. Urea - The futures price opened low and trended lower, showing a downward oscillation. The spot price of urea increased due to the continuous rebound of futures prices and improved downstream demand, but since the weekend, downstream resistance to high prices has led to weak order receipts and stable prices [23]. - Before the seasonal shutdown of gas-based devices, the daily output of upstream factories is expected to fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed, and downstream demand needs verification. Last week, demand was strong, and orders were good. Northeast fertilizer preparation has begun, and compound fertilizer factory operating rates have rebounded [23]. - After the price rebound, downstream feedback has been poor, and order receipts have been weak since the weekend. Domestic demand cannot support high prices, and the Indian tender price has not boosted the market. However, exports continue, and there is still demand support from off-season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [23].

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent capital inflows and outflows in commodity futures, indicating a mixed market sentiment with specific sectors showing significant activity [1] Capital Inflows - Major inflows were observed in stainless steel (4.31 billion), aluminum (3.06 billion), container shipping index (European line) (1.99 billion), apples (1.99 billion), and lithium carbonate (1.73 billion) [1] - The non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and black metal sectors showed a net inflow, with a particular focus on stainless steel, aluminum, apples, lithium carbonate, and gold [1] Capital Outflows - Significant outflows were noted in crude oil (2.51 billion), glass (2.07 billion), styrene (1.08 billion), palm oil (0.84 billion), and LPG (0.79 billion) [1] - The chemical and financial sectors experienced outflows, with particular attention to crude oil, glass, and styrene, as well as the counter-trend outflow in fuel oil [1] Sector Analysis - The overall commodity futures market showed a moderate inflow, with specific sectors like non-ferrous metals and agricultural products performing well [1] - The financial sector's focus is on the CSI 500 index futures and 30-year treasury futures, indicating a strategic interest in these instruments [1]

上证报中国证券网讯 11月11日，国债期货午盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.09%，报116.410元；10年 期主力合约涨0.04%，报108.525元；5年期主力合约涨0.02%，报105.955元；2年期主力合约持平于 102.464元。 | | ▼ CFFEX 30年期国债期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | TLM | 30年期国债期货主力连续 | 116.410 | 0.09 | 0.110 | | 2 | TL2606 | TL2606 | 116.110 | 0.10 | 0.120 | | 3 | TL2603 | TL2603 | 116.150 | 0.08 | 0.090 | | ব | TL2512 | TL2512 | 116.410 | 0.09 | 0.110 | | | ▼ CFFEX 10年期国债期货 | | | | | | 1 | TM | 10年期国债期货主力连续 | 108.525 | 0.04 | 0.040 | | 2 | T2606 | T2606 | 108.300 | 0.02 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

| 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | . | 涨幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ▼ CFFEX 30年期国债期货 | | | | | | 1 | TLM | 30年期国债期货主力连续 | 116.280 | 0.22 | 0.250 | | 2 | TL2606 | TL2606 | 115.980 | 0.17 | 0.200 | | 3 | TL2603 | TL2603 | 116.030 | 0.21 | 0.240 | | র্ব | TL2512 | TL2512 | 116.280 | 0.22 | 0.250 | | | ▼ CFFEX 10年期国债期货 | | | | | | 1 | TM | 10年期国债期货主力度公 | 108.480 | 0.00 | 0.005 | | 2 | T2606 | T2606 | 108.280 | 0.03 | 0.030 | | 3 | T2603 | T2603 | 108.240 | 0.01 | 0.015 | | ব | T2512 | T2512 | 108.480 | 0.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report is an introductory guide to treasury bond futures, providing a detailed introduction to the characteristics and related concepts of each treasury bond futures variety, and offering an analysis framework for investors to understand the relationship between the spot and futures markets, identify arbitrage opportunities, and manage interest rate risks [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Varieties - There are four treasury bond futures varieties listed on the China Financial Futures Exchange, with different contract specifications such as contract value, deliverable bonds, and margin requirements. The 2 - year treasury bond futures has a contract value of 2 million yuan, while the others have 1 million yuan. The shorter - term futures have lower minimum margin ratios and higher leverage [12]. - Each variety has four fixed contracts per year with delivery months in March, June, September, and December, but only the nearest three quarterly contracts are traded. The settlement price is the net price excluding accrued interest [12]. - In terms of trading volume and open interest, the 10 - year variety has the largest open interest, followed by the 5 - year and 30 - year varieties, and the 2 - year variety has the lowest. The 30 - year variety has a relatively high trading volume and a leading trading volume ratio [13][15]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Concepts - The basic concepts include the main contract, continuous contract, deliverable bonds, conversion factors, CTD (cheapest - to - deliver bond), treasury bond futures pricing, basis, net basis, and implied repo rate (IRR), which together reveal the arbitrage opportunities and the internal relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. 3.3 Main Contract - The main contract is the one with the largest trading volume, open interest, and market influence in a certain variety, usually the current - quarter contract. As the current - quarter contract approaches the delivery month, its trading volume decreases, and the next - quarter contract takes over as the new main contract [21]. 3.4 Continuous Contract - The continuous contract is a virtual contract sequence created to connect the prices of individual treasury bond futures contracts with different maturity months, facilitating technical analysis, back - testing research, and long - term trend observation [22]. 3.5 Deliverable Bonds and Conversion Factors - To standardize and ensure the continuity of treasury bond futures, a virtual standard bond is used as the contract underlying, and the conversion factor is introduced to standardize different deliverable bonds. The invoice price in actual delivery is calculated based on the futures settlement price, conversion factor, and accrued interest [25]. 3.6 CTD (Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond) - The CTD is the bond with the lowest delivery cost among the deliverable bonds, which can be determined by calculating the delivery net cost. Its selection is affected by factors such as conversion factors, market interest rate fluctuations, and bond liquidity [33][35]. 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Pricing - Treasury bond futures are priced based on the "no - arbitrage principle." The theoretical price is equal to the net cost of holding the CTD spot until delivery, considering factors such as the spot net price, financing cost, and interest income. The pricing also takes into account the seller's option value [41]. 3.8 Basis - The basis represents the difference between the spot price and the futures price of treasury bonds, reflecting the "holding cost" or "return" of holding spot treasury bonds and hedging through short - selling futures contracts. It is affected by factors such as interest income, financing cost, and short - seller option value [42][43]. 3.9 Net Basis - The net basis is the basis after deducting the holding - period net return, directly reflecting the short - seller option value of a certain type of futures and helping to identify "cheap" futures varieties [44][45]. 3.10 Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The IRR is the theoretical annualized return rate of the basis trading strategy of "buying spot bonds and selling futures." When the IRR is higher than the actual financing cost, there is a positive arbitrage opportunity; otherwise, there may be a reverse arbitrage space. The CTD bond usually has the highest IRR [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report is an introductory guide to treasury bond futures, detailing the characteristics and concepts of various treasury bond futures products, which offer efficient and flexible interest rate risk hedging tools for financial market participants, deepening China's bond market and promoting the process of interest rate liberalization [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Varieties - There are 4 treasury bond futures products listed on the China Financial Futures Exchange, covering different maturities. Each product has 4 fixed contracts per year with delivery months in March, June, September, and December, but only the nearest three quarterly contracts are traded [12]. - The contract underlying the 2 - year treasury bond futures has a face value of 2 million yuan, while the others have a face value of 1 million yuan, all with a nominal coupon rate of 3%. Shorter - term futures have lower minimum margin ratios, with the 2 - year futures at 0.5% (200 - fold leverage) and the 30 - year at 3.5% (28 - fold leverage) [12]. - In terms of open interest, the 10 - year futures has the largest scale (280,000 lots), followed by the 5 - year and 30 - year (180,000 lots), and the 2 - year has the lowest (80,000 lots). In 2025, the average daily trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 40,000, 70,000, 90,000, and 120,000 lots respectively, with the long - term varieties having relatively higher trading volumes and the 30 - year having a leading trading proportion [13][15]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Basic Concepts - The concepts include the main contract, continuous contract, deliverable bonds, conversion factors, CTD (cheapest - to - deliver bond), treasury bond futures pricing, basis, net basis, and implied repo rate (IRR), which together reveal arbitrage opportunities and market relationships [20]. 3.3 Main Contract - The main contract is the one with the largest trading volume, open interest, and market influence in a particular variety, reflecting market expectations and supply - demand relationships for interest rates. It is usually the current - quarter contract due to high hedging and arbitrage demand and optimal liquidity. When the current - quarter contract approaches the delivery month, the next - quarter contract takes over as the main contract [21]. 3.4 Continuous Contract - The continuous contract is a virtual contract sequence created to connect the prices of individual treasury bond futures contracts with different maturities, facilitating technical analysis, back - testing, and long - term trend observation. Wind uses the "post - adjustment method" to eliminate price gaps during contract switching [22]. 3.5 Deliverable Bonds and Conversion Factors - To ensure standardization and continuity of treasury bond futures, the contract underlying is a virtual standard bond. The conversion factor is used to standardize different deliverable bonds, calculated as the present value of a deliverable bond's future cash flows discounted at the coupon rate of the virtual standard bond and divided by the face value. The invoice price in actual delivery is calculated as the futures settlement price × conversion factor × face value+accrued interest [25]. 3.6 CTD (Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond) - CTD is the bond with the lowest delivery cost among the basket of deliverable bonds, determined by calculating the delivery net cost (bond market price - (futures settlement price × conversion factor)). Its influencing factors include conversion factors, market interest rate fluctuations, and bond liquidity. Empirically, when the market yield > 3%, low - coupon, long - duration bonds are more likely to be CTD; when < 3%, high - coupon, short - duration bonds are more likely [33][35][36]. 3.7 Treasury Bond Futures Pricing - Pricing is based on the "no - arbitrage principle." In an efficient and frictionless market, the futures settlement price = spot bond net price+interest income - financing cost - coupon income. Considering the seller's option value in the delivery rules, the actual formula is futures settlement price+option value = spot bond net price+interest income - financing cost - coupon income [39][41]. 3.8 Basis - The basis in treasury bond futures represents the "holding cost" or "return" of holding a spot treasury bond and hedging through short - selling futures contracts. It is calculated as the net price of the deliverable bond - (futures settlement price × conversion factor of the deliverable bond), and is affected by interest income, financing cost, and short - seller option value [42][43]. 3.9 Net Basis - The net basis is the basis minus the net return during the holding period, directly reflecting the short - seller option value of a particular futures variety, with the CTD having the highest net basis [44][45]. 3.10 Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - IRR measures the theoretical annualized return of a basis trade ("buy spot, sell futures") held until delivery. When IRR > market risk - free rate, there is an arbitrage opportunity; when <, there may be a reverse arbitrage opportunity, but it is not risk - free. The CTD has the highest IRR [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on November 6, 2025, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like p-xylene, coking coal, and PTA had significant increases, while container shipping to Europe and asphalt declined [6][7]. - The market is influenced by various factors such as international policies (e.g., OPEC+ production decisions), supply - demand dynamics of different commodities, and macro - economic data (e.g., US employment data) [7][9][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The copper market is in a tight supply - demand balance. Supply is affected by negative smelting processing fees, potential supply disruptions from the Indonesian copper mine accident, and planned smelter overhauls. Demand is somewhat suppressed by rising prices. The US employment data affects the macro - expectation, and the strong dollar restricts the upside of copper prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply is increasing as upstream production is active, with high开工 rates. Demand is strong, especially from the energy - storage battery sector, leading to significant inventory reduction. However, due to the uncertainty of official复产 news, caution is advised when chasing the rising price [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak has ended, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. Geopolitical factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the US - Venezuela situation also affect the market, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Asphalt - Supply has a slight decrease, with开工 rates at a relatively low level. Demand is affected by project construction in the north and price inquiries in the south. With the influence of crude oil price fluctuations and the release of low - price resources, the asphalt futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. PP - The downstream开工 rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is affected by new capacity and reduced maintenance. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and with the influence of crude oil and the absence of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [15][16]. Plastic - The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is relatively low. New capacity is added, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected. With the influence of crude oil and the lack of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [17]. PVC - Supply is increasing with high开工 rates and new capacity. The export expectation is weakening, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in adjustment, and with the end of maintenance and high futures warehouse receipts, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [18]. Coking Coal - Supply is tightening due to production restrictions in Shanxi. The inventory is being transferred downstream. The demand from steel mills is affected by environmental protection, resulting in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to be in high - level consolidation [19][20]. Urea - Supply is increasing with high daily production. Demand is also increasing as the downstream replenishes at low prices. The market atmosphere is improving, and the price is expected to have a small - range rebound and narrow - range oscillation [21].

Core Viewpoint - The monetary market continues a loose tone into November, with the bond market sentiment gradually recovering, supported by stable fiscal spending and reduced medium to long-term liquidity pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Market Conditions - The liquidity supply-demand relationship in November shows significant improvement compared to October, with a decrease in medium to long-term liquidity pressure by approximately 100 billion yuan and a reduction in tax payment scale by about 800 billion yuan [2]. - Historical patterns indicate that November is typically a relatively stable period for liquidity, with short-term interest rates expected to remain below policy rates [2][4]. - The central bank is anticipated to continue a gentle "supportive" approach, maintaining a stable and loose liquidity stance through operations like reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [2][4]. Group 2: Bond Market Sentiment - The improvement in liquidity is gradually transmitting to the bond market, with the 30-year government bond futures price rebounding from a low of 113 yuan to above 116 yuan since mid-October, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment [3][4]. - The recent drop in short-term funding rates, particularly the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit rate to around 1.63%, reflects a stable short-term funding price, which supports the bond market's recovery [4][5]. Group 3: Year-End Market Outlook - Multiple institutions express cautious optimism regarding the overall year-end bond market, predicting that short-term configuration value will stand out while long-term bonds have room for recovery [5][6]. - The current low funding rates and limited funding stratification suggest that institutional demand for configuration will be steadily released, contributing to a gradually improving trading sentiment [5][6].