Report Overview - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Market Summary - As of the close on November 24, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Methanol rose over 3%, glass nearly 3%, and ethylene glycol (EG), corn, cotton yarn, and polysilicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and pure benzene fell over 2%, and styrene (EB), coking coal, palm oil, and urea dropped over 1% [5][6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84%. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.06%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.15% [6]. - As of 15:18 on November 24, in terms of capital flow, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an inflow of 1.456 billion yuan, Shanghai Silver 2602 had an inflow of 260 million yuan, and Shanghai Copper 2601 had an inflow of 240 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 7.289 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 4.312 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 2.562 billion yuan [6]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened low and trended higher, showing a strong oscillation. Data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, but with a data vacuum before the next Fed meeting, the uncertainty of rate cut expectations is high, and the market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively large, causing the US dollar index to continue to rebound [8]. - Nvidia's strong earnings boosted optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand. Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in Q2 next year. Refined copper imports decreased month-on-month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have also been accumulating [8]. - The 770th document has not been implemented, causing cautious operations in recycled copper rod enterprises. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month-on-month decline of over 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [8]. - Overall, the Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a stalemate, and the market believes the probability of a rate cut in December is small, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the off-season demand and increasing SHFE inventories have weakened market confidence. Short-term copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to Fed rate cut expectations [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, dropping nearly 3% during the day. As of October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 21, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In October, China's energy storage battery production was 54.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, year-on-year increases of 21.1% and 20% [11]. - The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and demand. Although there is news of the resumption of production at the Jiuxiaowo mine, the authenticity is uncertain. Until the actual negative impact is realized, there is support at the bottom of the market [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The end of the peak demand season, combined with increased production and exports, has led to a supply surplus in the crude oil market [12][13]. - EIA data shows that refined oil inventories increased more than expected, but due to increased net exports, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected. US crude oil production is near a record high. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [12][13]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand due to the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US manufacturing index, and the unclear prospects of US interest rate cuts. The supply surplus in the crude oil market has become a consensus, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year-on-year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) [14]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed performance. The national asphalt shipments increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. Asphalt refinery inventory ratios remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years [14]. - With the decline in crude oil prices and the end of road construction in the north, demand is expected to weaken further. With the stable production of some refineries, the asphalt operating rate will increase. Asphalt futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly compared to last year [16]. - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%. The production ratio of standard-grade PP increased to around 29%. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years [16]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Downstream demand is in the late peak season, and orders are limited. The lack of large-scale purchases and the absence of anti-competition policies have led to limited market support. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with stable orders, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film peak season is ending, and demand in the north is starting to decline [17]. - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and traders are cautious about the future market. Without anti-competition policies, and with the supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastic prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [17][19]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased slightly to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly, remaining at a relatively low level [20]. - India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC and the likely cancellation of anti-dumping duties have alleviated concerns about exports to India, and export orders increased last week. Social inventories increased slightly last week and remain high, indicating significant inventory pressure [20]. - In 2025, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. With positive chlor-alkali comprehensive profits and new production capacity coming online, the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly recently [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and trended higher, with a decline during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased, and the self-pickup price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal also decreased [21]. - In October, China's coal imports decreased year-on-year. The utilization rate of coking coal mine production capacity increased slightly. As of November 16, the cumulative import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was large, and the daily customs clearance vehicles may increase next week [21][22]. - Under the winter coal supply and price stabilization policy, the tight supply expectation is partially offset. Mine inventories have increased significantly, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Steel mill operating rates and molten iron production increased this week, but profits are weakening. There is potential bullishness in mine production cuts at the end of the year, so be cautious about potential price rebounds [22]. Urea - The futures price opened low and trended lower, showing a downward oscillation. The spot price of urea increased due to the continuous rebound of futures prices and improved downstream demand, but since the weekend, downstream resistance to high prices has led to weak order receipts and stable prices [23]. - Before the seasonal shutdown of gas-based devices, the daily output of upstream factories is expected to fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed, and downstream demand needs verification. Last week, demand was strong, and orders were good. Northeast fertilizer preparation has begun, and compound fertilizer factory operating rates have rebounded [23]. - After the price rebound, downstream feedback has been poor, and order receipts have been weak since the weekend. Domestic demand cannot support high prices, and the Indian tender price has not boosted the market. However, exports continue, and there is still demand support from off-season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [23].

从品种看，11月21日，资金主要流入的商品期货（主连合约）品种有黄金、原油、菜油、镍和铜，分别流入129.14 亿元、1.36 亿元、1.09 亿元、0.70 亿元和0.62 亿元；主要流出的品种有碳酸锂、铝、焦煤、玻璃和白银，分别流出10.62亿元、3.70亿元、 3.60亿元、2.71亿元和2.40亿元。从板块看，有色金属和金融板块呈流入状态，农产品、化工和黑色板块呈流出状态。 图为商品期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） 整体上，商品期货（主连合约）资金受主力合约换月影响呈大幅流入状态，有色金属板块流入较多，重点关注流入较多的黄 金、镍和铜，同时关注逆势流出的碳酸锂、铝、硅和白银。农产品、化工和黑色板块呈流出状态，重点关注流出较多的焦煤、 玻璃和苹果，同时关注逆势流入的原油、菜油和烧碱。金融板块重点关注10年期国债期货和中证1000股指期货。（徽商期货 方 正） 图为板块资金流入额（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流出前十名（亿元） 图为商品期货资金流入前十名（亿元） 图为金融期货主连合约资金流向（亿元） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices tumbled this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market's trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The 10-year economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, and some economic indicators were notably affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market [7]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, A-share major indices and four stock index futures all fell. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices moving randomly. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction this year, causing A-shares to open high and close low. On Friday, the overnight slump in US technology stocks dragged down Asian-Pacific stocks. The trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. The allocation recommendation is to go long on dips [7]. Bonds - In October, the economic growth continued to slow down, and some economic indicators were affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, and it is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. The allocation recommendation is range-bound operation [7]. Commodities - China's October economic data, especially the continuous weakening of fixed asset investment, pressured industrial products. However, gold and crude oil showed a volatile trend. The subsequent commodity index is expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. The allocation recommendation is to mainly wait and see [7]. Foreign Exchange - The US government shutdown-delayed September non-farm payroll report was controversial. Fed officials' overall tone was neutral to hawkish, potentially supporting the US dollar. The euro weakened due to the strengthening US dollar, but the eurozone's fundamental situation continued to improve. The allocation recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [7]. Important News and Events - China notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. The Chinese government expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan and warned of countermeasures [13]. - Premier Li Qiang met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calling for free trade and reduced trade barriers, and proposed strengthening security cooperation and technological exchanges within the SCO [13]. - The Chinese and Japanese foreign affairs departments held consultations, with China expressing dissatisfaction with the results and demanding that Japan retract its wrong remarks [13]. - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences on interest rate cuts. Most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged this year, while some advocated a more relaxed rate policy. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [14]. - The US modified the rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign-backed enterprises. China will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [14]. - The Dutch government suspended the administrative order against Nexperia. China welcomed the move but hoped for a complete solution to the semiconductor supply chain issue [14]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data United States - The US 9-month unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest in four years. The number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the previous data was revised downward. Fed officials were divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased significantly [11]. Japan - Japan's inflation continued to be high, and the yen was weak. The GDP in the third quarter shrank for the first time in six quarters, and the new government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures [11]. Eurozone - The euro fell to a two-week low due to the strengthening US dollar. The eurozone's October CPI year-on-year growth rate met the policy target, and the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026 [11]. China - The central bank's net open market injection this week was 554 billion yuan. The 11-month LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The central bank will continue to reform and improve the LPR formation mechanism. If the fourth-quarter economic growth is significantly lower than expected, there is still room for LPR cuts [12]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - Next week, important economic data from Germany, the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and France will be released, including GDP, retail sales, unemployment rates, and CPI [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the yields of most active treasury bonds declined. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.52%. Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a mixed performance, with some weakening and some improving. Overseas, the US government averted a shutdown, but the employment market showed downward risks, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December dropped significantly. The economy in Q4 is expected to continue a weak recovery. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. Currently in a policy vacuum, interest rates may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.01%, and 0.06% respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 1244, 3133, 2388, and 1158 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603, T12 - TL12, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 spreads decreased by 0.01, 0.06, 0.01, and 0.01 respectively. T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 spreads increased by 0.00 and 0.01 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 10869, 8352, 2955, and 6927 respectively. T top 20 net short positions increased by 1874, TF top 20 net short positions decreased by 1152, TS top 20 net short positions decreased by 34, and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 683 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD Bonds - The net prices of multiple CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB up 0.0041, 220019.IB up 0.0043, etc. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of 1 - year bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year and 7 - year and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.25bp, 0.55bp, and 0.25bp respectively, and 5 - year bonds increased by 0.20bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.66bp, 1.70bp, 3.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively. Silver - pledged 14 - day decreased by 3.00bp, and Shibor 14 - day remained unchanged [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 4075 billion, the maturity scale was 4038 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. From January to October, national fiscal revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and fiscal expenditure increased by 2%. In October, the bank settlement - sale surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - On November 20 at 3:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. On November 20, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report [3]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月13日，国债期货走弱，30年期主力合约盘中跌0.20%，现报116.180点。10年期跌 0.07%，现报108.445点。5年期跌0.05%，现报105.915点。2年期跌0.01%，现报102.468点。 ...

每经AI快讯，11月13日，国债期货走弱，30年期主力合约盘中跌0.20%，现报116.180点。10年期跌 0.07%，现报108.445点。5年期跌0.05%，现报105.915点。2年期跌0.01%，现报102.468点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The economic fundamentals' continuous repair and the implementation of broad fiscal policies require a low - interest - rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially drive long - term interest rates down. However, there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position during adjustments [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.475，跌0.01%，成交量52193，减少6637；TF主力收盘价105.935，持平，成交量48332，减少777；TS主力收盘价102.462，持平，成交量28422，增加3493；TL主力收盘价116.300，持平，成交量73470，减少22627 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，增加0.00；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.83，减少0.03；T2512 - 2603价差0.23，增加0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.54，增加0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.02；TS2512 - 2603价差0.05，增加0.00；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.01，持平；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.47，减少0.00 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量225549，减少5844；T前20名多头234412，减少2128；T前20名空头255127，减少2085；T前20名净空仓20715，增加43；TF主力持仓量131787，减少6611；TF前20名多头131668，减少3580；TF前20名空头151475，减少5572；TF前20名净空仓19807，减少1992；TS主力持仓量65702，减少1663；TS前20名多头67457，增加184；TS前20名空头78722，增加845；TS前20名净空仓11265，增加661；TL主力持仓量125664，减少3486；TL前20名多头135731，减少1371；TL前20名空头155816，减少1648；TL前20名净空仓20085，减少277 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.5601，涨0.0330；250018.IB(4y）净价99.0955，持平；250003.IB(4y）净价99.6141，涨0.0104；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，涨0.0184；220016.IB(1.7y)净价101.8925，涨0.0140；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0447，涨0.0078 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 210005.IB(17y) 1y收益率1.3950，涨0.3342；210014.IB(18y) 3y收益率1.4375，跌0.0022；5y收益率1.5800，跌0.25bp；7y收益率1.6985，涨3.85bp；10y收益率1.8050，跌0.10bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.4860，涨3.60bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.5080，涨2.90bp；银质押7天利率1.5100，涨1.00bp；Shibor7天利率1.5010，涨2.30bp；银质押14天利率1.4500，跌5.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.5180，涨2.60bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y利率3.00，持平；5y利率3.5，持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模4038亿，到期规模1175亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净投放2863亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 截至10月29日，5000亿新型政策性金融工具资金全部投放完毕，支持重点领域民间投资项目；国务院办公厅印发促进民间投资发展措施；美国国会参议院就结束政府“停摆”达成一致，政府有望尽快重启 [2] 3.10 Market Situation - 周二国债现券收益率涨跌不一，国债期货多数持平，DR007加权利率回升至1.51%附近震荡；国内10月CPI同比小幅回升，核心CPI明显改善，PPI降幅连续第3个月收窄，出口同比增速意外转负；海外美国10月ISM服务业PMI创8个月新高，制造业PMI大幅不及预期，ADP就业新增4.2万人，劳动力市场下行风险缓和但整体需求放缓 [2] 3.11 Strategy - 10月央行国债买卖操作审慎但释放宽松信号；经济基本面修复和宽财政政策需低利率环境配合；市场预期央行购债以中短期限为主，短端利率有望下行并带动长端利率走低，需警惕风险偏好回升对长端利率的压制；操作上建议每逢调整轻仓试多 [2]

上证报中国证券网讯 11月11日，国债期货午盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.09%，报116.410元；10年 期主力合约涨0.04%，报108.525元；5年期主力合约涨0.02%，报105.955元；2年期主力合约持平于 102.464元。 | | ▼ CFFEX 30年期国债期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | TLM | 30年期国债期货主力连续 | 116.410 | 0.09 | 0.110 | | 2 | TL2606 | TL2606 | 116.110 | 0.10 | 0.120 | | 3 | TL2603 | TL2603 | 116.150 | 0.08 | 0.090 | | ব | TL2512 | TL2512 | 116.410 | 0.09 | 0.110 | | | ▼ CFFEX 10年期国债期货 | | | | | | 1 | TM | 10年期国债期货主力连续 | 108.525 | 0.04 | 0.040 | | 2 | T2606 | T2606 | 108.300 | 0.02 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

| 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | . | 涨幅% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ▼ CFFEX 30年期国债期货 | | | | | | 1 | TLM | 30年期国债期货主力连续 | 116.280 | 0.22 | 0.250 | | 2 | TL2606 | TL2606 | 115.980 | 0.17 | 0.200 | | 3 | TL2603 | TL2603 | 116.030 | 0.21 | 0.240 | | র্ব | TL2512 | TL2512 | 116.280 | 0.22 | 0.250 | | | ▼ CFFEX 10年期国债期货 | | | | | | 1 | TM | 10年期国债期货主力度公 | 108.480 | 0.00 | 0.005 | | 2 | T2606 | T2606 | 108.280 | 0.03 | 0.030 | | 3 | T2603 | T2603 | 108.240 | 0.01 | 0.015 | | ব | T2512 | T2512 | 108.480 | 0.00 ...