地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 25 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘红，焦煤涨超 6%，燃料油涨超 5%，焦炭涨超 4%，BR 橡胶、集运欧线、铁矿石、玻璃、20 号胶涨超 2%；跌幅方 面，胶合板跌超 1%，碳酸锂、苯乙烯小幅下跌。沪深 300 股指期 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 23 日 以持久战心态看待债市跌破年线 ——债市策略思考 核心观点 对于长牛资产，跌破年线通常意味着较好入场点，建议投资者可以用持久战心态和防 守反击战术应对当前卡玛比率不足的债市格局。 ❑ 资产价格突破年线意味着什么？ 作为中长期趋势的锚定指标，年线（即 MA250）通常代表过去一整年的平均成本， 通常被视作市场的长期均衡价位。对债券市场而言，日线向下跌穿年线往往代表 市场情绪容易转弱，通常被解读为趋势转弱。值得注意的是，投资者在日常使用 时需特别注意"假突破"风险。若月内快速收复，则可能存在假突破风险；但有效跌 穿后未及时收回，通常导致年线转换为强阻力位。 ❑ 三类主流资产跌破年线后的走势复盘 10 年期国债期货：债券市场长期动量趋势明显，10 年期国债主力合约年线附近或 存在较强支撑。 上证指数：近年以来上证指数日线曾数次上穿/下穿年线，同时伴随着较为强势的 趋势性行情，但年线附近未出现明显支撑。 纳斯达克指数：纳指长期趋势明显，年线附近存在较强支撑位。 ❑ 以持久战心态看待债市跌破年线 对于长牛资产， ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 国债期货日报 2025/8/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.000 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 63938 | 11704↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.450 | 0.06% TF主力 ...

Group 1 - The main inflows in commodity futures (main contracts) yesterday were in manganese silicon, ethylene glycol, LPG, styrene, and corn starch, with inflows of 403 million, 386 million, 328 million, 305 million, and 169 million respectively [1] - The main outflows were in silver, lithium carbonate, soybean oil, soda ash, and coking coal, with outflows of 533 million, 369 million, 332 million, 299 million, and 276 million respectively [1] - Overall, commodity futures experienced a moderate outflow, with black, agricultural products, and non-ferrous metals showing outflows, while the chemical and financial futures sectors showed inflows [1] Group 2 - The chemical sector saw significant inflows, particularly in ethylene glycol, LPG, and styrene, while rubber experienced outflows [1] - The financial sector focused on the CSI 1000 index futures and 10-year treasury futures [1] - Attention is drawn to the significant outflows in silver, lithium carbonate, soybean oil, and coking coal, alongside the notable inflows in manganese silicon, corn starch, and polysilicon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a dramatic reversal after a severe downturn, with significant interventions from the central bank and the Ministry of Finance stabilizing the situation [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures contract fell by 1.33%, leading to widespread selling in the credit bond market as funds faced redemption pressures [1]. - Following the central bank's liquidity injection of over 770 billion yuan within two days, the overnight rate dropped from 1.50% to 1.47%, alleviating market stress [3]. - The A-share market saw a shift as investors moved from equities to bonds, with the 30-year government bond futures rising by 0.28% as a result [3]. Group 2: Policy Interventions - The central bank conducted a 616 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, which was part of a larger liquidity support strategy [3]. - The Ministry of Finance's announcement of a 5.5 billion yuan treasury bond sale aimed to reassure the market and prevent a liquidity crisis from spreading [4]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - There was a significant increase in buying activity in the bond market, with the proportion of active buying transactions rising from 50% to 66% [6]. - Banks resumed purchasing government bonds, indicating confidence in the long-term value of the bond market, particularly at yields below 1.75% for 10-year bonds [6]. Group 4: Market Segmentation - While government bonds showed a collective rebound, the credit bond market exhibited divergence, with certain low-rated municipal bonds facing selling pressure [7]. - The 30-year government bond ETF saw a 0.28% increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment and attracting short-term investors [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the recent recovery, experts caution that the bond market remains in a "stabilization and rebalancing phase," with limited upside for long-term rates due to risk aversion [11]. - Defensive strategies are recommended for investors, focusing on shorter-duration government bonds and high-rated credit bonds to mitigate risks [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the Fed's September FOMC meeting is approaching, with high market uncertainty. The fundamentals remain largely unchanged, but the upcoming peak season may boost demand, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is volatile. Although the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production eases supply concerns, the suspension of CATL's production continues. With the anti - involution measures in progress, lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [11]. - For crude oil, supply - demand conditions are weakening, and prices are expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][14]. - For asphalt, considering factors such as开工 rate, production, demand, and cost, it is advisable to view asphalt as having a weak and volatile trend [15]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. The 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit and exit as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to oscillate recently, influenced by factors like开工 rate, demand, and cost [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, it is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is fluctuating, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. - For urea, the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 20th, domestic commodity futures contracts showed mixed performance. EG, caustic soda, and methanol rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down, and soda ash, glass, etc. declined significantly. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures had different trends [6]. Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 20th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2509, SSE 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509, while funds flowed out of Shanghai silver 2510, lithium carbonate 2511, and ten - year treasury bond 2509 [7]. Specific Commodity Analyses Copper - Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's FOMC meeting. Supply may face challenges in the later third - quarter, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production, the market sentiment fluctuated, and the price hit the daily limit down. Supply may decline in August - September, and demand has some support [11]. Crude Oil - Seasonal factors, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical events affect supply - demand. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by factors such as weather and funds. Cost is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工 rate is low, supply may increase, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit [16][17]. Plastic -开工 rate is at a medium - low level, demand is weak, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate [18]. PVC - Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is increasing, downstream demand is complex, and market sentiment is fluctuating. The price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. Urea - Supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender [23].

Group 1: Hot News - China Futures Association suggests continuous expansion of specific futures varieties and steady opening of the "variety pool", expanding the scope of specific varieties at a "mature one, include one" pace, and optimizing cross - border fund settlement and bonded delivery networks [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is advancing the research and development of innovative products like the Baltic Panamax Dry Bulk Freight Index Futures (BPI Index Futures) and exploring settlement price authorization cooperation with overseas futures exchanges [2] - Regarding India media's report on China lifting rare - earth export restrictions on India, the spokesperson said she was unaware of the situation and emphasized cooperation to maintain global supply - chain stability [2] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - session Performance - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, butadiene rubber, glass, soda ash, and urea [3] - Night - session performance shows the following sector percentage increases: non - metallic building materials 2.95%, precious metals 26.23%, oilseeds and oils 13.19%, non - ferrous metals 21.11%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 14.71%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 11.72%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.99% [3] Group 3: Position Changes - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering multiple sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coking - steel - minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity market: Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 4.31%, and a yearly increase of 11.20%; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have different performance data [5] - Fixed - income market: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and yearly performance data [5] - Commodity market: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., show various price changes [5] - Other assets: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have their respective performance data [5]

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese and Indian foreign ministers resulted in 10 key agreements aimed at enhancing bilateral relations and cooperation [3][4][5] - Both sides emphasized the importance of strategic leadership from their respective leaders for the development of China-India relations [3] - China welcomed Indian Prime Minister Modi's participation in the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, while India expressed support for China's presidency of the organization [3][4] Group 2 - The two countries agreed to support each other's diplomatic activities, including the hosting of the BRICS summits in 2026 and 2027 [3][4] - There is a mutual agreement to explore the resumption of various government-to-government dialogue mechanisms to strengthen cooperation and manage differences [3][4] - Both nations plan to facilitate direct flights and visa conveniences for travelers engaged in tourism, business, and media activities [4][5] Group 3 - The agreement includes provisions for the continued pilgrimage of Indian devotees to sacred sites in Tibet, expanding the scale of such activities [4][5] - Specific measures will be taken to facilitate trade and investment flows between the two countries [5] - Both sides committed to maintaining peace and stability in border areas through friendly consultations [5] Group 4 - The two countries agreed to promote multilateralism and enhance communication on major international and regional issues, defending the interests of developing countries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which are critical signals for the future direction of the capital market [1][2][9]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, especially in medium to long-term bonds [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures experienced a notable drop of 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, with closing prices hitting new lows since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in bond prices and the simultaneous rise in yields indicate a weakening demand for bonds, suggesting that the attractiveness of bonds is diminishing [12][13]. - The article discusses the traditional inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, where a strong stock market typically correlates with a weak bond market [15][16]. - However, the article argues that the current weakness in the bond market is not solely due to this stock-bond dynamic, as both short-term and long-term bonds are experiencing price and yield changes [19][24]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The shift from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted as a key factor influencing the bond market's performance [31][32]. - Recent economic indicators, such as rising CPI and increasing commodity prices, suggest a warming inflation outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that external factors, including increased foreign investment and potential policy changes, are contributing to a positive shift in market expectations [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the capital market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is anticipated, with trading dynamics shifting towards inflation-driven strategies [48][49]. - The current market conditions indicate that the bond market may continue to weaken while the stock market remains strong, suggesting a new normal for capital market behavior [50].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond futures, once favored in the bond market, are experiencing a decline in popularity as the equity market continues to perform strongly, leading to a bearish sentiment in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the 30-year government bond futures fell over 1%, marking a new low since early April this year. Other maturities, including 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bond futures, also saw varying degrees of decline [2][4]. - The 30-year government bond futures closed down 1.33%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year futures fell by 0.29%, 0.21%, and 0.04%, respectively [4]. - The yields on major interbank government bonds have risen sharply, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 4.35 basis points to 2.0375%, and the 10-year bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.775% [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Dynamics - The bond market is currently under pressure due to the strong performance of the equity market, which is suppressing bond market sentiment. Additionally, institutional redemptions are contributing to short-term risks in the bond market [2][4]. - The prevailing sentiment in the bond market is one of weakness, as it has shown a muted response to positive economic data while being more sensitive to negative influences from the equity and commodity markets [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - According to research from Everbright Securities, the banking system currently has ample liquidity, and despite upcoming tax periods and month-end factors, the average DR007 is expected to be the lowest of the year in late August, alleviating concerns over significant increases in bond yields [6]. - The bond market may either decouple from the equity market or continue to react to its movements. The likelihood of bond yields declining in the short term is greater than the chance of them rising [6]. Group 4: Redemption Risks - The ongoing adjustments in the bond market could trigger a wave of redemptions from bond funds, further increasing volatility. The research team at Huachuang Fixed Income suggests that while there may be minor redemption pressures, the overall risk remains manageable as long as yields stay below 1.9% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures to support the liquidity of government bonds in the secondary market, which could help stabilize the market amid these adjustments [8][9].