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瑞士通胀数据疲软 瑞郎承压进入弱势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-05 03:35
Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently experiencing a strong oscillation supported by fundamentals, trading around 0.8089 after reaching a psychological level of 0.8100 in the North American session [1] Group 1: USD Performance - The recent strength of the USD is attributed to the Federal Reserve's "hawkish easing" stance, despite a 25 basis point rate cut last week [1] - The Fed's communication suggests that further easing is not guaranteed, leading to a reduction in market expectations for a December rate cut, which supports the USD [1] - The USD index has surpassed 100.00, reaching its highest level since early August, with an increase of nearly 0.20% on that day [1] Group 2: CHF Performance - The Swiss Franc's performance is influenced by weaker-than-expected inflation data, raising market speculation about the Swiss National Bank potentially discussing a "broader toolbox" for easing [2] - Although a shift to a more accommodative policy is not imminent, it could lower neutral interest rates and real interest differentials, diminishing the relative attractiveness of the CHF [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The resistance level for the USD/CHF pair is identified at 0.8100, with a prior high retracement level at 0.8098 [2] - Support levels are seen at 0.8080 (the mid-point of the trading range) and 0.8066 (the lower boundary of the range), with a significant static support at 0.8035 if the price drops below these levels [2]