储备分散化

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贵金属日评-20250723
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:51
1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The political risks in the US have pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the prices of gold and silver. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly supported, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. The report suggests investors maintain a bullish mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the hedging and reserve diversification needs from the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms, economic weakness, and central bank rate - cut expectations. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in the third quarter should be monitored [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump's government's pressure on Fed Chair Powell and a congressman's criminal charge against Powell have pushed down the US dollar index and caused London gold to rebound to $3390 per ounce. The anti - involution expectation has driven up the price of silver with strong industrial attributes. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a bullish view and trade with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values in July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's hedging and allocation needs, Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. The report expects London gold to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view, and bearish - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US as the prospect of a trade agreement with Washington fades. Some EU countries are evaluating the use of a comprehensive anti - coercion mechanism [17]. - The US Treasury Secretary suggests a review of the Fed, and the Fed responds to the White House's criticism of the renovation cost of its headquarters [17]. - Guangdong and Anhui in China will regulate the new - energy vehicle industry to promote healthy competition [17].