这还不算完，国际市场上，伦敦现货黄金8月5日就突破3380美元/盎司，创年内新高，COMEX期货更是一度摸到3400美元心理关口 。世界黄金协会的数据 更吓人：2025年二季度全球黄金需求总值飙升45%，达到1320亿美元，ETF持仓量突破4500亿美元，创历史新高 。 这波黄金牛市可不是偶然。首先得看看美联储的"脸色"。8月23日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上暗示可能提前降息，直接点燃市场热情—— 美股三大指数当天集体涨超1.5%，道指创历史新高，中概股指数也大涨3%。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，9月降息25个基点的概率从一周前的75%飙升到 91%，高盛更是预测今年会有三次降息，每次25个基点 。 不过，光靠美联储还不够。全球央行都在疯狂囤金！世界黄金协会6月的调查显示，95%的受访央行预计未来一年继续增持黄金，43%的央行计划自己增加 储备，中国央行已经连续9个月增持，持仓量突破2300吨 。这种"官方背书"让黄金成了避险硬通货，尤其是在全球贸易摩擦升级、地缘政治紧张的背景下 。 再看中概股这边，简直是"旱地拔葱"。8月5日纳斯达克中国金龙指数单日暴涨1.8%，华米科技更是飙升48%，年内 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 11 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 特朗普提名白宫首席经济顾问米兰暂时担任美联储新理事，这意味着美联储 可能受到更多来自特朗普政府的压力，市场预计美联储 9 月 17 日会议降息概率高 达 86.6%，美联储降息预期支持贵金属偏强运行；但也有美联储官员表态 9 月降 息并非板上钉钉，且美国政府压力下俄乌冲突可能降温，因此伦敦黄金在 3400 美元/盎司附近遭遇较大压力。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升 ...

Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing a stark contrast between high investment demand and low consumer interest, with domestic gold prices remaining high while retail sales decline significantly [1][19][21] - China Gold Group, once a market leader, is facing severe challenges including plummeting revenues and profits, alongside negative publicity from various scandals [1][4][6][23] - The traditional business model of China Gold is failing to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger generations who prioritize design and cultural value over weight and price [4][13][22] Group 1: Market Performance - International spot gold prices recently peaked at $3399.27 per ounce before retreating, while domestic gold prices remain at 781 yuan per gram [1] - Despite high gold prices, 13 out of 15 listed jewelry companies in China reported declining net profits, with many established brands seeing revenue drops exceeding 15% [1][19] - China Gold's first-quarter 2025 financial report indicated a nearly 40% year-on-year decline in revenue and over 60% drop in net profit [1][6] Group 2: Company Challenges - China Gold has faced multiple crises, including franchisee bankruptcies, executive scandals, and safety incidents, leading to a tarnished brand image [3][4][7][10] - The company's revenue model, which relied heavily on low-cost gold and high-weight products, has become ineffective as consumer preferences shift towards design and brand prestige [4][13] - The franchise model has resulted in a lack of oversight and quality control, with numerous complaints about product quality and service issues [12][22] Group 3: Industry Trends - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a shift, with a 5.96% decline in consumption and a 26.85% drop in gold jewelry sales year-on-year [21] - Younger consumers are increasingly drawn to alternative products and experiences, leading to a decline in interest in traditional gold jewelry [21][22] - Competitors like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are innovating with culturally rich products, while China Gold struggles to introduce significant new offerings [13][15][22] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold industry is at a crossroads, where companies must either innovate or face obsolescence, with a focus on brand value and consumer engagement becoming critical [23] - China Gold is attempting to pivot by increasing self-operated stores and launching culturally themed products, but the success of these initiatives remains uncertain [14][15][16] - The ongoing rise in gold prices presents both challenges and opportunities for traditional gold companies, necessitating a reevaluation of their business strategies [18][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk - preference recovery suppresses gold prices, but gold's long - term bullish trend remains unchanged, with tariff - induced slowdown in the US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle providing medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit building the long - term bullish foundation [1][6] - The trading of short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the logic of weakening US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, with positive sentiment in the gold market [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US President Trump said the US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [2] - Trump may meet with Russian President Putin next week, and the US plans to implement secondary sanctions on Friday to pressure Russia to end the Ukraine war [2] - Some Fed policymakers are increasingly worried about the cooling of the US job market and economic slowdown, though they are still uncertain about inflation [2] 3.2 Price Logic - Asian stocks rose on Wednesday. Despite weak US economic data, the recovery of market risk - preference suppressed the safe - haven demand for gold. However, trade uncertainties and interest - rate cut expectations provide support [3] - Investors still bet that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, with an expected cumulative cut of over 50 basis points this year [3] - Trump's tariff announcements on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have intensified global trade tensions, which may limit the decline of gold prices [3] - The negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been exhausted, and the emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, becoming a slow - variable [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly focus for London gold spot is [3300, 3500], and for London silver spot is [36, 40] [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold has been in a long-term bull market, and this trend is not expected to change [1][2]. - Historical analysis shows that gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, such as rising from over $600 to nearly $1,900 during the 2008 financial crisis, followed by a drop to around $1,050 [3]. - Currently, gold has been in a high-level consolidation phase for four months after reaching the $3,500 mark, raising questions about its potential to break through this level [5][8]. Group 2 - The analysis indicates that if gold does not break through its current high this month, there is a possibility of a significant pullback in the ongoing bull market [8]. - The potential for U.S. interest rate cuts could influence gold prices, as historically, gold has not necessarily declined during periods of rising interest rates [10]. - There are concerns that a potential stock market crash could impact gold prices, with recent movements suggesting a possible downward trend in the near future [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices dropped and then rebounded on Tuesday evening, reaching a high of $3380 per ounce, mainly influenced by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI and Trump's remarks about the Fed and Indian tariffs [1][3]. - With the phased conclusion of trade negotiation results, the negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been phased out. The emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken and become a slow - variable later. Attention should be paid to the negative verification of the fundamentals after large - scale implementation [6]. - With the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the reversal of the US stock market, the short - term trading of the US economic resilience may end. The market will return to the logic of the weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, and the sentiment in the gold market will turn positive [6]. - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change. The accelerating pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, which is expected to increase price elasticity [6]. - The long - term bull market trend of gold remains unchanged. The continued slowdown of the US fundamentals under the tariff path and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the foundation for the long - term bull market [6]. - The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [36, 40] [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Key Information - Trump said he would significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase of Russian oil. India responded that it would take measures to safeguard its interests and criticized Trump's actions as "unjustified" [2]. - Trump said he would soon announce a short - term replacement for Fed Governor Kugler's resignation and the next Fed Chairman [2]. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed that some policymakers believed there was room for a rate hike once trade frictions caused by US tariffs eased [2]. - On August 5, US economic data showed that the July ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5; the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, slightly higher than the expected 55.2. The trade deficit in June narrowed to $60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices were affected by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI, Trump's remarks about the Fed (including soon announcing a new Fed Chairman, criticizing Powell for "cutting interest rates too late") and Indian tariffs (raising tariffs on Indian goods in 24 hours, and planning new tariff measures on drugs and chips in the next week with drug tariffs possibly reaching up to 250% in stages) [1][3]. - The three factors of economic fundamentals, Fed independence, and economic and trade prospects resonated, causing gold to rebound quickly from $3350 to above $3380 [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The employment market deterioration in the US may prompt the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process ahead of schedule. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted, with its volatility rising but the mid - line upward trend remaining good. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold, while Trump's reforms and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price - to - earnings ratio also means increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation pressure on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter [6]. Group 4: Content Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The significant deterioration of US non - farm employment in July and the large downward revision of the previous two months' data may lead the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler gives Trump the power to influence monetary policy. The US dollar index fell sharply, and London gold rebounded above $3350/ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/ounce and then rise again. This week, attention should be paid to China's July foreign trade, price, and financial data, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and US trade tariff policies [4]. Mid - line Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's demand, the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support the price. The gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to fluctuate in the range of $3120 - $3500/ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to participate in trading with a long - position mindset and medium - low positions. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The US Trade Representative said the tariffs may continue. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about reaching an agreement with China [18]. - US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, with a significant downward revision of 258,000 non - farm jobs in the previous two months. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September has increased. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [18]. - Trump fired a senior official of the Labor Department after the weak employment report and accused her of manipulating data without evidence. Fed Governor Kugler resigned unexpectedly, giving Trump an earlier opportunity to influence the Fed. Trump said Fed Chairman Powell may stay in office [19]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. Eight member countries will meet again on September 7 to consider whether to lift another approximately 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts [19]

Group 1 - Fidelity International predicts gold prices may reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and central banks increasing gold reserves [1][2] - Ian Samson, a multi-asset fund manager, notes that the company remains bullish on gold, with some funds increasing their gold allocation from 5% to nearly 10% over the past year [1][2] - Gold prices have risen over 25% this year, driven by uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside continued central bank purchases [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs shares a similar optimistic outlook on gold prices, forecasting a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce, while Citigroup expresses a more cautious stance predicting a decline [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates, but there may be dissent among officials advocating for support of the slowing labor market [2] - Samson highlights that gold typically benefits from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, with ongoing central bank purchases and expanding fiscal deficits enhancing gold's appeal as a hard asset [3]

Group 1 - Wall Street is becoming increasingly bullish on gold prices, with predictions that prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year due to factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and central banks increasing gold reserves [1][2] - Fidelity International's multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson noted that the firm has increased its gold holdings as prices retreated from historical highs above $3,500 per ounce, driven by a clearer path towards a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Year-to-date, spot gold prices have risen over 26%, supported by policy uncertainty from U.S. trade actions, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and central bank purchases [1] Group 2 - Samson expressed that while the U.S. may avoid a dire tariff scenario, the Trump administration is still expected to impose significant tariffs on imports, which could lead to economic slowdown [2] - The current spot gold price is approximately $3,319 per ounce, with differing views among institutions; Goldman Sachs shares a bullish outlook similar to Fidelity, while Citigroup predicts a decline in gold prices [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate policy in the upcoming meeting, but there may be dissenting opinions advocating for rate cuts to support a slowing labor market [2] Group 3 - Gold typically benefits from a weakening dollar and lower interest rates, and global central banks are likely to continue purchasing gold amid expanding fiscal deficits, particularly in the U.S. [3] - Historical data shows that during bull markets, gold has averaged annual gains of 20%, suggesting that current price levels may not be severely overvalued [3]

Market Overview - The recent rise in US stocks has raised concerns about valuation bubbles, but strong earnings and optimism regarding US trade agreements have led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach record highs, with VIX closing below 15 [2] - Tesla shares increased by 3.5%, leading the tech giants, while Intel shares fell by 8.5% [2] - US Treasury yields showed mixed results, with short-term rates rising and the 10-year yield dropping by approximately 1 basis point [2] - The US dollar rose by 0.23%, despite a decline over the week, while Bitcoin experienced a drop of over 3% before rebounding [2] - Gold prices fell for three consecutive days, dropping nearly 1%, and domestic futures markets saw widespread declines, with coking coal futures dropping by 7.76% [2] Key News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to stabilizing the market and enhancing investment value through various measures, including promoting long-term capital and addressing risks in real estate financing [4][9] - The State Council of China has initiated measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing its importance for long-term development [9] - The US government plans to impose tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, with current anti-dumping duties potentially increasing significantly [11] - South Korea is preparing to invest over $100 billion in exchange for tariff concessions from the US, indicating a strategic shift in trade negotiations [11] - Japan's central bank may consider raising interest rates within the year, following recent discussions on trade agreements with the US [13] Company Developments - Intel is accelerating its business restructuring by planning to spin off its networking division, which is expected to generate $5.8 billion in revenue for 2024, accounting for 11% of Intel's total sales [20] - Volkswagen reported a 29% decline in Q2 operating profit, attributing a loss of €1.3 billion to tariffs and lowering its full-year sales forecast [20] - The Chinese toy company Blokus is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% in net profit from 2024 to 2027, driven by strong R&D capabilities and efficient supply chain management [16]