2026 年储能重点关注五大变化 报告要点 展望 2026 年，储能行业短期景气度有望延续，长期成长空间依然广阔，建议 重点关注以下五大变化： 变化一：各省电力现货峰谷价差走势 证券研究报告 [Table_ | 行业深度First] 综上，我们认为当前影响行业发展的积极因素多于潜在风险，有理由对 2026 年全球储能行业的增长保持乐观。从装机口径，我们预计 2026 年全球储能新 增装机 388gwh，同比增长 45%；从出货量口径，我们预计 2026 年全球储能 电池出货量 825gwh，同比增长 39%。 电力现货市场峰谷价差是比招标数据更为前瞻的景气度跟踪指标，2026 年应 重点关注。根据 394 号文要求，截至 2025 年底，全国绝大部分省份电力现货 市场已进入长周期/连续结算试运行。各省现货峰谷价差直接反映当地新能源 消纳情况与系统调节需求，未来电力现货市场将成为指挥棒，短期应优先建 设储能还是光伏，将由市场供需与价格机制决定。 变化二：各省储能容量补偿机制推进情况 容量补偿有望成为独立储能电站仅次于现货市场收入之外的第二大收入来 源，其落地进度将对国内储能建设节奏产生重要影响，2026 年应重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Hubei Province Energy Storage System Construction Plan (2025-2030)", which aims to establish a phased development path for energy storage in Hubei, targeting a total installed capacity of 17GW by 2030, positioning the province as a significant power regulation center in the country [1][13]. Phase-wise Installed Capacity Goals - By 2027, the total installed energy storage capacity in Hubei is expected to reach 8 million kilowatts (8000MW) [2]. - New energy storage will primarily consist of new types of storage, targeting 5 million kilowatts [3]. - Pumped storage will reach 2.87 million kilowatts, focusing on small and medium-sized power stations [4]. - By 2030, the total installed capacity will increase to 17 million kilowatts, with new energy storage reaching 8 million kilowatts [5]. - Pumped storage capacity will expand to 9.12 million kilowatts, emphasizing large power stations [6]. Integration of New Energy Storage with Power Systems - The plan emphasizes the integration of new energy storage with the power system, encouraging the construction of "system-friendly" renewable energy power stations and the use of various storage technologies [8]. - It promotes the deployment of long-duration energy storage systems, such as compressed air and flow batteries, to replace some transmission and distribution facilities [8]. Diverse Technology and Industry Cluster Development - The plan outlines a detailed approach to diversify new energy storage technologies, including solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and compressed air storage, while also encouraging the application of advanced technologies like gravity storage and hydrogen storage [9]. - It aims to establish a distinctive energy storage industry cluster in Hubei, focusing on the development of lithium battery industrial parks and the construction of a super energy storage factory [9]. Capacity Compensation and Market Mechanisms - The plan proposes exploring a capacity compensation mechanism for grid-side energy storage, integrating capacity fees into system operating costs to stabilize revenue expectations for energy storage stations [10]. - It also aims to optimize time-of-use pricing mechanisms and gradually improve the pricing policies for pumped storage [10]. Management and Service Mechanisms for Energy Storage - The plan emphasizes the establishment of a management system for energy storage that aligns with the needs of sustainable development, including optimizing market and pricing mechanisms [20]. - It encourages the participation of new energy storage in market transactions and the development of a collaborative optimization model for energy sources, networks, loads, and storage [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid development and transformation of the energy storage industry in China, highlighting the shift from a "strong allocation-driven" model to a "market-driven" approach, driven by new policies and market mechanisms [4][20][68]. Group 1: National Macro Policy Analysis - The introduction of the "Document No. 136" prohibits unreasonable cost allocation to new energy and makes energy storage configuration non-mandatory for new projects, promoting a market-driven demand for energy storage [4][20]. - The establishment of the "1+6" electricity market system is underway, which includes basic rules for electricity market operations and various trading mechanisms [4][23]. - The innovation of market operation models is accelerating, with energy storage being encouraged in applications like virtual power plants and zero-carbon parks under the 2030 carbon peak target [4][29]. Group 2: Various Energy Storage Policies - The participation of energy storage in the spot market is accelerating, with several provinces transitioning to formal operations and conducting trial runs [5][46]. - Significant adjustments in auxiliary service market prices have been observed, with many regions lowering peak compensation prices and transitioning to a single compensation mechanism [5][47]. - The "Document No. 136" has led to the cancellation of mandatory energy storage configurations, resulting in a decline in revenue for independent energy storage stations [5][49]. Group 3: Market Development and Subsidies - Over 200 energy storage subsidy policies have been released across more than 20 provinces, with 19 new policies introduced by mid-2025 [6][56]. - The development of virtual power plants is gaining momentum, with several provinces issuing specific policies and achieving significant dispatch capabilities [6][56]. Group 4: Regional Policy and Economic Analysis - By mid-2025, 26 provinces have set energy storage targets exceeding 86.6 GW, with several provinces already surpassing their "14th Five-Year Plan" installation goals [38]. - The total production value target for energy storage across nearly 30 provinces is over 3 trillion yuan, with some provinces setting additional targets for 2027 [38]. Group 5: Safety Management and International Competition - The national level has emphasized the importance of safety management in energy storage, with multiple policies released to enhance safety standards and regulatory responsibilities [31][72]. - The international market is becoming increasingly competitive, with tariffs and green trade policies affecting the energy storage supply chain [33][72].