储能行业资深专家交流 20250928 摘要 北美储能市场受 OOBBB 法案和关税影响，2025 年预计装机量达 70- 80 吉瓦时，出现抢装潮，导致电芯供应紧张和本土设备价格上涨，如去 年 80 美元/度电涨至 100-110 美元/度电。预计 2026 年装机量回落至 40 吉瓦时，2027 年因 AI 数据中心需求或将再次增长 20-30 吉瓦时。 中东地区储能市场竞争激烈，海辰以低于 70 美元/GWh 的激进报价参与 沙特 SEC 的 4GW/11GWh 项目，引发市场关注。多个大型招标项目如 低瓦七项目和沙特 SPBC 项目进展延期，集成商如宁德、比亚迪等积极 参与，但市场寡头垄断明显，新进入者机会有限。 欧洲储能市场预计 2026 年装机容量将翻倍至 40GWh，主要驱动因素 包括大型项目推进、政策支持力度加大以及乌克兰战后重建需求。欧洲 直流侧 FOB 价格维持在 65~75 美元之间，市场相对稳定，但需考虑地 方保护政策对 PCS 设备的要求。 中国储能市场未来均价预计上升，因对项目生命周期要求提高，设备成 本增加。内蒙古推出一度电补贴 0.35 元政策，刺激了 20 吉瓦时项目的 开发 ...

Summary of Huabao New Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabao New Energy - **Industry**: Energy Storage Solutions Key Points Financial Performance - In 2023, Huabao New Energy experienced a revenue decline of **27.7%** and reported a loss, primarily due to inventory destocking [2][3] - The company expects to complete inventory destocking by the first half of 2024, with new products projected to account for **75%** of sales in the second half of 2024, driving significant market share growth [2][4] - Revenue growth is anticipated to be **65%** in Q2 2025, although net profit margin is expected to drop to single digits due to high tariffs [2][10] Product Lines - Huabao New Energy's product lines include: 1. **Portable Energy Storage**: Core business, primarily in the US and Japan, used for outdoor activities and emergency backup [7][8] 2. **Mobile Home Energy Storage**: Suitable for household power supply, priced lower than large home storage systems, also focused on the US and Japan [7][8] 3. **Balcony Solar Storage**: Targeted at the European market, designed for energy savings through photovoltaic systems [7][8] Market Dynamics - The portable energy storage market is growing rapidly, with Huabao holding approximately **10%** global market share, and over **30%** in the US online market [14] - The balcony solar storage industry is in a growth phase, with Germany's relaxed policies stimulating market demand, potentially creating a market space of **$10-20 billion** annually [5][13] - The mobile home storage market is projected to generate **$4 million** in revenue this year, with expectations to reach **$15 million** next year [19] Regional Performance - The US market accounts for about **50%** of the company's environmental performance business, while Japan accounts for **30%** and Europe has increased from **5%** to **10%** in market share [11] - The European market has seen a doubling in growth due to the introduction of new products and recruitment of specialized talent [11][13] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow by **50%** from 2025 to 2026, with profit margins anticipated to recover to over **8%** [6][21] - The company plans to enhance its product line to meet diverse market demands in the US, Japan, and Europe, aiming to improve profit margins and solidify its industry position [9][22] Tariff Impact - High tariffs significantly impacted profit margins in Q2, but a reduction to **40.7%** in Q3, along with cost control measures, is expected to improve profitability [21] - The release of Southeast Asian production capacity is anticipated to further reduce costs and improve net profit margins [21] Conclusion - Overall, Huabao New Energy is positioned for significant growth, driven by strong brand power, effective new product launches, and resolution of tariff issues, indicating a positive future performance outlook [22][23]

美银证券发表研究报告指，2025年世界储能大会上周于福建省宁德市举行，不少中国电动车企业及电池 公司都有参与，目前对储能行业看法更趋正面。该行预期，2025至2030年储能电池需求将受国内政策支 持及海外市场增长带动保持坚挺，行业专家预测至2030年中国电池储能累计装机容量将达240GW，另 外欧洲及新兴市场未来两至三年储能需求亦持续强劲，预期2025年全球储能需求约500GWh，2026至 2027年则将增长约30%及25%。在反内卷背景下，美银证券预期内地电动车电池价格将趋于稳定。基于 市场需求及政策支持，美银将宁德时代2025至2027年销售额及盈利预测上调3%、4%及3%，电池出货量 预测上调3%、3%及2%，目标价从475港元上调至570港元，评级"买入"。该行并将中创新航目标价从24 港元上调至35港元，同予"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The demand for energy storage has surged, leading to tight supply of upstream energy storage cells, with major companies reporting full production capacity [1] - According to a report by CITIC Securities, the booming orders in the energy storage industry are driven by strong overseas demand, price recovery, and new energy storage initiatives [1][2] - In August, China's energy storage companies received global orders totaling 97.8 GWh, with overseas orders accounting for 15.2 GWh [1] Group 2 - The tight supply of energy storage batteries has resulted in rising product prices, benefiting companies with integrated supply chain advantages [2] - The introduction of the "136 Document" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aims to promote market-oriented pricing for renewable energy projects [2] - The new regulations present both opportunities and challenges for renewable energy companies, as they shift from fixed income to market-based revenue [2][4] Group 3 - Recent guidelines from various provinces clarify expectations for existing and new renewable energy projects regarding mechanism electricity and pricing [3] - Energy storage projects are expected to play a more significant role in the future power generation system, transitioning from cost centers to profit centers [4] - Jinko Power Technology Co., a leading solar power and energy storage operator, is accelerating its energy storage business in response to new regulations [4]

为推动新型储能高质量发展，国家发展改革委、国家能源局近日印发《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方 案（2025—2027年）》（以下简称《行动方案》）。《行动方案》提出，2027年，新型储能基本实现规 模化、市场化发展，技术创新水平和装备制造能力稳居全球前列，市场机制、商业模式、标准体系基本 成熟健全，适应新型电力系统稳定运行的多元储能体系初步建成，形成统筹全局、多元互补、高效运营 的整体格局，为能源绿色转型发展提供有力支撑。全国新型储能装机规模达到1.8亿千瓦以上，带动项 目直接投资约2500亿元，新型储能技术路线仍以锂离子电池储能为主，各类技术路线及应用场景进一步 丰富，培育一批试点应用项目，打造一批典型应用场景。 商务部研究院副研究员洪勇在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，政策红利持续释放、市场需求多点爆 发、技术迭代加速落地、产能布局逐步兑现，多重因素共振，正推动储能行业进入"量价齐升"的黄金发 展期，尤其是以锂电池为代表的新型储能实现跨越式增长，产业链上中下游企业凭借技术创新与规模优 势，将迎来发展机遇。 行业景气度攀升 根据CNESA（中关村储能产业技术联盟）DataLink全球储能数据库的不完全统计，截 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise on September 15, with the ChiNext Index surging nearly 3%, breaking through 3100 points, marking a 3.5-year high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 also reached multi-year highs, although the number of declining stocks significantly outnumbered advancing ones [1] Sector Performance - Battery, automotive parts, photovoltaic equipment, and gaming sectors saw the largest gains, while real estate, broadcasting, components, and aerospace equipment sectors experienced declines [1] - The battery sector index rose over 9%, reaching a 3-year high, with leading company CATL's A-shares increasing by over 14% and H-shares by over 10%, both hitting historical highs [2] Key Stocks - Notable gainers included Zhongyi Technology (+20%), Tianhong Lithium (+18.31%), and CATL (+9.85%), with significant net inflows into these stocks [3] - Other companies like Hunan Youneng and Baili Technology also saw gains exceeding 10% [3] Solid-State Battery Developments - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with several companies announcing progress in their projects, including EVE Lithium's new production base and Ganfeng Lithium's successful R&D updates [4] - Guoxuan High-Tech reported a 90% yield rate on its first solid-state pilot line [4] Energy Storage Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced a plan to increase new energy storage capacity from approximately 95 GW to over 180 GW by 2027, representing a nearly 90% increase [5] - The China Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in energy storage bidding projects [5] Forecasts and Trends - CITIC Securities raised its domestic energy storage installation forecasts for 2025-2027 to 130 GWh, 165 GWh, and 190 GWh, respectively [6] - The lithium battery industry is expected to maintain upward momentum, with a focus on raw material prices and solid-state battery advancements [6] Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive supply chain saw a collective surge, with parts leading the gains and the sector index reaching a 10-year high [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a plan aiming for 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, with a target of 15.5 million for new energy vehicles, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth [9] - The automotive market is characterized by accelerated electrification and the rise of domestic brands, with a shift towards intelligent technology in the industry [9]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise on September 15, with the ChiNext Index surging nearly 3%, breaking through 3100 points, marking a 3.5-year high [1] - Major indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 also reached multi-year highs, although the number of declining stocks significantly outnumbered advancing ones [1] Sector Performance - Battery, automotive parts, photovoltaic equipment, and gaming sectors led the gains, while real estate, broadcasting, components, and aerospace equipment sectors saw the largest declines [2] Battery Sector - The battery concept stocks experienced a significant surge, with the sector index rising over 9% and reaching a 3-year high [3] - Leading company CATL saw its A-shares rise over 14% at one point, while its H-shares increased by over 10%, both hitting historical highs [3] - Other companies like Zhongyi Technology, Tianhong Lithium Battery, and Tianci Materials also saw their stocks hit the daily limit or rise over 10% [3] Solid-State Battery Developments - Sub-sectors such as energy metals, battery recycling, lithium mining, and solid-state batteries also showed strong performance [4] - Companies like EVE Energy and Ganfeng Lithium reported significant progress in solid-state battery projects, with EVE's production base officially launched [4] - Guoxuan High-Tech announced that its first solid-state pilot line has achieved a 90% yield rate [4] Energy Storage Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released a plan to increase new energy storage capacity from approximately 95 GW to over 180 GW by 2027, representing a nearly 90% growth [5] - The China Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in energy storage bidding projects [5] Automotive Sector - The automotive industry saw a collective rise, with automotive parts leading the charge, reaching a 10-year high [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan aiming for 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a 3% increase year-on-year, with new energy vehicle sales projected to reach 15.5 million, a 20% increase [7][8] - The plan includes 15 initiatives to boost the automotive market, focusing on expanding domestic consumption and enhancing supply quality [8] Investment Insights - CITIC Securities raised its domestic energy storage installation forecasts for 2025-2027 to 130 GWh, 165 GWh, and 190 GWh respectively [6] - Zhongyuan Securities noted the overall upward trend in the lithium battery industry, emphasizing the importance of monitoring raw material prices and solid-state battery advancements [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **energy storage industry** in China and its performance in various regions, including **domestic and international markets** [1][5][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Profitability of Domestic Energy Storage Projects**: - In Shanxi, energy storage projects can achieve a return rate of **15%-20%**, with some projects reaching an investment return rate of **20%** due to high frequency modulation income [2][3]. - In Ningxia, project returns are estimated at **10%-12%**, while Inner Mongolia projects can exceed a **50% capital return rate** due to favorable pricing mechanisms [2][3]. - **Projected Growth in Energy Storage Capacity**: - By **2025**, China's large-scale energy storage capacity is expected to reach at least **150 GWh**, representing a **50% year-on-year increase** [5][6]. - The industry is anticipated to grow at a rate of **15%-20% annually** over the next three years, although a potential correction phase may occur in the mid-2030s [6]. - **Price Variability of Energy Storage Systems**: - Prices for energy storage systems vary significantly based on equipment quality, usage requirements, and project scale. For instance, in Inner Mongolia, self-use equipment prices exceed **0.65 RMB/kWh**, while competitive bidding prices can drop to **0.39 RMB/kWh** [1][8][9]. - **Differentiation in Profitability Among Integrators**: - Profitability among different energy storage system integrators varies significantly, influenced by supply chain capabilities, project types, and partnerships. For example, Haibo Company enjoys higher gross margins due to strong supply chain management and relationships with state-owned enterprises [10]. Additional Important Insights - **International Market Trends**: - The U.S. is projected to install over **50 GWh** of energy storage in **2025**, but this is expected to decline to around **40 GWh** in **2026** [11]. - The European market is expected to grow from **8-9 GWh** in **2024** to **15-17 GWh** in **2025**, with Eastern European countries being significant growth areas [14]. - **Challenges in the Middle East Market**: - The Middle East market is characterized by a lack of brand premium, focusing more on price competitiveness. For example, a 4-hour battery system in the region is priced at **73 USD/kWh** [22][23]. - **Regional Competitive Advantages**: - In the U.S., local production is crucial, while in Europe, long-term customer relationships are key. In the Middle East, a combination of brand recognition and competitive pricing is essential for success [25]. - **Quality and Yield Variability**: - There is significant variability in yield rates among companies in the energy storage sector, with higher yields indicating better production efficiency and cost management [30]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy storage industry.

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is experiencing a surge in demand, leading to significant stock price increases for several energy storage companies, reflecting a global explosion in storage demand and market reshuffling [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Major energy storage companies have reported impressive financial results for the first half of 2025, indicating an initial phase of industry reshuffling [3]. - Notable revenue growth was observed in several companies, with Sunshine Power (阳光电源) achieving a 127.78% increase in energy storage revenue, while DeYa Co. (德亚股份) saw an 85.80% rise in its energy storage battery revenue [5]. - CATL (宁德时代) maintained its position as the global leader in energy storage battery shipments, with a total of 55 GWh shipped in the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global energy storage battery shipment volume reached 246.4 GWh in the first half of 2025, marking a 115.2% year-on-year increase, significantly surpassing domestic new energy storage installations [9]. - The energy storage market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70%, with the battery energy storage system (BESS) market share expected to rise from 5% five years ago to 25% by 2024 [9][10]. - The demand for energy storage is driven by policy and market mechanisms, transitioning from a passive role to a market-driven phase, enhancing profitability and certainty [10]. Group 3: Production and Supply Chain - The production capacity utilization rates for major companies have significantly improved, with CATL reaching 89.86% and EVE Energy (亿纬锂能) at 80% in Q2 2025, compared to less than 35% a year prior [7]. - There is a notable backlog in orders for energy storage cells, with some orders extending into 2026, indicating a strong demand-supply imbalance [7]. - Prices for energy storage cells have been rising, with mainstream models experiencing a cumulative increase of 10%-20% from June to July 2025, supported by a rebound in lithium carbonate prices [7]. Group 4: Global Expansion - Chinese energy storage companies signed 199 new overseas orders in the first half of 2025, with a total scale exceeding 160 GWh, reflecting a 220.3% year-on-year growth [11]. - The global energy storage market is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of around 30% over the next three years, driven by increasing demand in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia [11].

Market Overview - On September 3, A-shares saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.95% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 23,641 billion RMB, significantly lower than the previous trading day [2] Index Performance - The ChiNext 50 Index rose by 1.55% and has increased by 40.43% year-to-date [2] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.95% with a year-to-date rise of 35.38% [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.60%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.70% [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (1.64%), Communication (1.61%), and Electrical Equipment (1.44%) [5] - The sectors with the largest declines were Defense and Military Industry (-5.83%), Non-Bank Financials (-3.05%), and Computers (-2.71%) [5] New Energy Sector Insights - The energy storage sector showed strong performance, driven by sustained domestic and international demand exceeding expectations, leading to upward adjustments in the supply chain [5][7] - Major battery manufacturers are projecting a 30-50% increase in shipments by 2026, surpassing the market's expected growth of over 20% [5] - The domestic energy storage market saw a significant increase in bids, with a total of 202 GWh awarded from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 146% [7] Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Sector Updates - Xinqi Eye Medicine reported a 97.75% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with ongoing innovation in drug development [8] - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and potentially higher valuations compared to A-shares [8]