Group 1: Market Overview - The global household energy storage (HES) installation demand is expected to grow by 45% year-on-year in 2026, with a higher growth of 58% when excluding the US and Japan, where Chinese companies have low participation [2] - The replenishment of inventory is not expected to deplete the 2027 installation demand, with current replenishment pressure potentially higher than in 2022, which saw over 200% revenue growth in HES [2] Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - In the UK, the "Warm Home Discount Scheme" is expected to support an annual installation of 3GWh, with conservative estimates predicting growth from 600MWh in 2025 to 2.5GWh in 2026 [3] - Australia will continue its subsidy program for at least three years, with a projected installation of over 3GWh in 2026, supported by a 1GWh shipment framework agreement signed by Airo Energy [3][4] - Eastern Europe, particularly Hungary, Poland, and Austria, is expected to contribute around 1GWh in additional installations, while Ukraine's demand remains strong due to power outages and interest-free loan policies [4] Group 3: Penetration Rates and Long-term Potential - The penetration rate of new household storage in relation to new household photovoltaic installations is approximately 50%, while the penetration rate in the existing market is only 25% [5] - The EU has a rooftop photovoltaic installation potential of 2300GW, with only 400GW currently installed, indicating a tenfold installation space available [5] Group 4: Key Company Analysis - Airo Energy's revenue is projected to grow from 4 billion in Q1 2025 to 75-80 billion in 2026, with significant growth in exports and a strong R&D team [6] - Deye's market diversity shows that Europe accounts for 40-50% of its energy storage shipments, with significant contributions from Ukraine and the UK [7][8] - Jinlang Technology aims to double its household storage shipments to 500,000 units in 2026, with new battery pack business expected to contribute significantly [11][12] Group 5: Profit Forecasts - Deye's profit is expected to increase from 32-33 billion in 2025 to over 50 billion in 2026, with a strong Q1 performance indicating a potential annual profit exceeding 60 billion [10] - Airo Energy's revenue from large storage is expected to exceed 2GWh in 2026, contributing 10-15 billion to its overall revenue [6] - GoodWe's revenue target for 2026 is set at 120 billion, with a net profit margin of 10%, translating to a net profit of 12 billion [14]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 涛波依旧 来源：雪球 储能目前是处于景气周期无疑了。这个景气周期能够持续多久？ 券商研报提出储能渗透率概念：即每年新增新型储能提供的灵活调节能力占整个电力系统每年新增灵活调节需求的比例。 以中国为例，未来可新增的电力系统灵活调节能力主要分为四类：火电调峰、抽水蓄能、需求侧响应、新型储能，前三者都有明显的发展 规模上 限，未来新型储能需要逐步担起重任，成为系统灵活调节资源的提供主体。 根据测算， 2024年中国储能渗透率仅为4.9%，预计未来10年有望快速增长至70%左右。 结合这一数据，新型储能目前的发展规模还远不及未 来电力系统对它的需求，储能产业仍处在生命周期中的成长初期。 预计2035年全球新型储能年新增装机容量峰值有望超过1.5TWh，2024-2035年年化复合增速有望达到21.4%。 其他券商研报基本都认为，储能未来五年复合增长率，高于20%。 我们再来看一下新能源汽车渗透率，新能源汽车在2020年的时候，渗透率仅为5%左右，在未来几年渗透率快速到达50%。 目前的储 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report expresses an optimistic outlook for the energy storage sector, predicting significant growth in installed capacity in China, with a projected increase of 43.7 GW/109.8 GWh in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 103%/136% [1][13] - It argues that the energy storage industry is just beginning its exponential growth phase, with a cumulative grid connection of 42.4 GWh and a tendering capacity of 176.6 GWh in the first half of 2025, showing year-on-year increases of 166%/281% [1][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand assessments and the industry's lifecycle position over short-term growth rates, suggesting that the energy storage market has 8.6 times growth potential before reaching its peak demand [2][10] Summary by Sections 1. Prerequisites for Energy Storage Demand - Energy storage demand arises primarily from two conditions: issues with photovoltaic (PV) consumption and the affordability of energy storage costs [17][25] - The report highlights that the most critical task for energy storage is to address the daily consumption issues of PV energy, especially as PV generation becomes a larger part of the energy mix [18][22] 2. Long-term Demand Forecast for Energy Storage - The report forecasts that global annual new installations of energy storage will peak between 2030 and 2035, with an expected annual addition of 264 GW and a total capacity exceeding 1.5 TWh [2][35] - It notes that the current energy storage penetration rate in China is only 4.9%, indicating significant room for growth as the industry matures [12][45] 3. Importance of Industry Lifecycle Position - The report stresses that understanding the industry's lifecycle position is crucial for investment decisions, as short-term demand predictions can often underestimate growth potential [40][43] - It draws parallels with the solar industry, which has seen consistent growth beyond initial forecasts, suggesting that energy storage may follow a similar trajectory [41][42] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technological leadership in key areas such as electrochemistry, power electronics, and grid support [47] - It also recommends looking for companies with global order acquisition capabilities and those that can expand production capacity internationally to mitigate geopolitical risks [48]