储能盈利
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火电VS储能:调节电源的长期价值
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-03-11 09:02
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The increasing installation of renewable energy sources is constrained by absorption limits, with clear profitability thresholds for energy storage. The long-term value of thermal power as a fundamental regulating power source continues to stand out [2] Summary by Sections 1. Power Generation Capacity Before 2060 - The report predicts that to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the share of thermal power generation must decrease to below 20%. Based on a compound growth rate of approximately 1.7%, national electricity consumption is expected to double by 2060, reaching 19 trillion kWh, with installed capacity rising from 3.3 billion kW in 2025 to 13.5 billion kW [7] 2. Current Power Generation Capacity - Many regions are already facing profitability challenges with renewable energy, with absorption limits estimated at 30-40% of generated electricity. If the share of renewable energy exceeds 50%, it must be exported or internal storage must be established to avoid wastage [8] 3. Energy Storage Needs - The report forecasts that national energy storage demand will increase from 270 million kW in 2026 to 920 million kW by 2030 and 4.5 billion kW by 2060, based on a 1:1 storage ratio with renewable energy generation [19][25] 4. Economic Viability of Energy Storage - For energy storage to be profitable, the price difference between charging and discharging must reach 0.4-0.5 yuan per kWh. The report highlights that northern provinces with stable electricity loads and surplus renewable installations have optimistic price differentials, while southern provinces lack the economic space for electrochemical storage [31][34] 5. Valuation of Thermal Power - The report suggests that while the return on equity (ROE) for thermal power is not excessively high, its valuation is significantly lower than other industries. A revaluation could occur once the dividend yield is realized in 2026 [35]