Core Viewpoint - China's aggressive strategy in developing its domestic semiconductor industry has yielded significant successes, including advanced wafer fabs capable of producing 7nm logic chips and world-class 3D NAND and DRAM storage devices. However, the journey has not been smooth, with numerous failures due to investment missteps, technical flaws, and unsustainable business models [2][7]. Group 1: Current State of Semiconductor Industry - As of early 2024, China has 44 semiconductor production facilities, including 25 300mm fabs, 5 200mm fabs, 4 150mm fabs, and 7 idle fabs, referred to as "zombie fabs" [3]. - China is in the process of constructing 32 additional semiconductor manufacturing projects as part of the "Made in China 2025" initiative, which includes 24 300mm fabs and 9 200mm fabs [3]. Group 2: Notable Failures in Semiconductor Projects - Several high-profile wafer fab projects, with investments ranging from $50 billion to $100 billion, have failed in recent years. Examples include: - Dehai Semiconductor, which aimed to design analog and mixed-signal ICs with a $3 billion investment, went bankrupt and had its assets auctioned [5]. - Fujian Jin Hua Integrated Circuit (JHICC), which aimed to produce 60,000 wafers monthly, was blacklisted by the U.S. government and failed to develop DRAM technology [5]. - GlobalFoundries' Chengdu project, which planned to invest $10 billion, was abandoned due to financial difficulties [17]. - Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (HSMC) faced severe funding shortages and was taken over by local government after failing to produce chips [10]. - QXIC, established after HSMC's issues, never progressed beyond the planning stage and was suspended by 2021 [14][15]. Group 3: Lessons from Failures - Many semiconductor projects in China failed due to a lack of technical expertise and overly ambitious goals. Startups attempted to produce advanced nodes like 14nm and 7nm without the necessary experience or equipment [6]. - The U.S. export restrictions since 2019 have hindered access to critical chip manufacturing equipment, stalling progress in advanced fabs [7]. - The experiences from these failures highlight the importance of sustained expertise, supply chain depth, and long-term planning in the semiconductor industry [25].