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沪铜产业日报-20251230
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 08:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and resilient demand, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and copper prices are strongly influenced by macro - factors. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low positions with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 98,090 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,437 dollars/ton, up 215 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 219,725 hands, down 15,782 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 37,503 hands, up 3,144 hands. LME copper inventory is 154,575 tons, down 2,450 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 111,703 tons, up 15,898 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 71,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 97,620 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 97,715 yuan/ton, down 3,510 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 49 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 470 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 31.35 dollars/ton, up 11.66 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.9 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.25 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,490 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 92,190 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the north, it is 1,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,870 yuan/ton, up 2,650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,350 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 56.04 billion yuan, up 7.7966 billion yuan. The cumulative investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.32%, down 0.64 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 39.69%, up 0.0953 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, down 0.0664 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, and enhancing platform economy regulation. The National Energy Administration has called for promoting the implementation of the "three - year doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities and accelerating the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system. The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association believes that the auto market in 2026 will have a positive start in January but face some pressure in February. US President Trump has commented on the Fed chairman and is considering legal action against him [2]