1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates weakly, with a decrease in positions and a premium in the spot market, and the basis strengthens. The raw material cost support logic remains strong due to the tight supply of copper concentrate and geopolitical impacts. The domestic copper production may slightly decline due to raw material supply constraints and the approaching holiday. The downstream may have some demand for bargain - hunting inventory replenishment after the significant copper price correction, but the actual transaction is still cautious due to the off - season and the upstream's price - holding sentiment. The domestic copper inventory shows seasonal accumulation. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper are in a stage of slightly converging supply and cautious demand. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 100,980.00 yuan/ton, down 4,180.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,999.50 US dollars/ton, down 45.00 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 182,336.00 lots, down 10,572.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 58,962.00 lots, down 7,780.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 176,125.00 tons, up 1,450.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 233,004.00 tons, up 7,067.00 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants are 37,075.00 tons, down 800.00 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 159,772.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,140.00 yuan/ton, down 3,265.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,145.00 yuan/ton, down 3,750.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 36.50 US dollars/ton, up 1.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 160.00 yuan/ton, up 915.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - three - month spread is - 81.84 US dollars/ton, down 12.44 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, up 17.80 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 95,230.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 95,930.00 yuan/metal ton, up 3,640.00 yuan. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 49.84 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.05 US dollars. The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 2,200.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan; in the north, it is 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, up 10,000.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,490.00 yuan/ton, up 1,300.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 84,850.00 yuan/ton, up 2,750.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, up 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, up 419.724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 45.07%, up 1.80%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 36.56%, up 1.21%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 32.46%, down 0.0310; the at - the - money option call - to - put ratio is 1.49, up 0.0049 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected. The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8 but was better than expected. Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue. The preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association showed that the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said to support the housing needs of young people and increase the area of affordable housing [2].

Core Viewpoint - In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased significantly, while exports saw substantial growth, indicating a shift in trade dynamics for these materials [1] Import Summary - In November 2025, China imported 430,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, representing a year-on-year decline of 19% [1] - The import value for the same period was $4.691 billion, down 7.8% compared to the previous year [1] Export Summary - In November 2025, China exported 219,900 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, marking a remarkable year-on-year increase of 129.1% [1] - The export value reached $2.424 billion, reflecting a significant growth of 152.1% year-on-year [1]

Group 1: Iron Ore Imports - China's iron ore import volume reached 125,870.9 million tons in 2025, marking a historical high and a 1.84% increase from 2024, driven by strong steel exports [2] - Australia maintained its position as the largest supplier, exporting 75,905.1 million tons to China, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%, while Brazil's exports were 27,741.6 million tons, up 1.61% [2] Group 2: Soybean Imports - China's soybean imports hit a record high of 111.83 million tons in 2025, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, with Brazil and Argentina showing significant growth [5] - Imports from Brazil reached 82.32 million tons, up 10.3%, while Argentina's imports surged by 92.4% to 7.89 million tons [5] - In contrast, imports from the United States fell to 16.82 million tons, the lowest since the 2018 trade dispute, representing a 24% decline [5] Group 3: Copper Imports - China's copper ore and concentrate imports totaled 30,310.3 million tons in 2025, a 7.9% increase year-on-year, with December imports at 2.704 million tons [6] - The year saw multiple record highs for copper concentrate imports, with April's volume reaching 2.924 million tons, the highest ever recorded [6] Group 4: Crude Oil Imports - China's crude oil imports reached a historical high of 57,772.6 million tons in 2025, a 4.4% increase from the previous year, attributed to rising processing volumes and inventory replenishment [8] - Imports from Russia totaled 10,072.4 million tons, down 7.14%, while imports from Saudi Arabia increased by 2.7% to 8,075.9 million tons [8] Group 5: Fuel Oil Imports - China's fuel oil imports decreased to 21.6 million tons in 2025, a 10.4% decline from the record high of over 24 million tons in 2024, due to lower import rebates affecting independent refiners [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House has slightly affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price has been somewhat affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation recently, the copper price may be in a temporary shock pattern, with the shock range expected to be between 99,500 yuan/ton and 125,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 19, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 101,030 yuan/ton and closed at 101,180 yuan/ton, a 0.41% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,680 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to par against the current - month contract, with an average discount of 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 100,590 to 101,290 yuan/ton. The market trading was light, and the spot discount pattern may continue [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss the US tariff issue, and the EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth 9.3 billion euros [3] - **Mine End**: Australian copper developer Austral Resources will acquire Glencore's Lady Loretta zinc - lead mine in Queensland. Canadian First Quantum Minerals lowered its copper production guidance for the next two years [4] - **Smelting and Import**: LME copper inventory rebounded from a two - month low, SHFE copper inventory continued to rise to a nine - month high, and New York copper inventory reached a new high. In December 2025, China's unforged copper and copper products exports increased by 117.0% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 21.8% year - on - year [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,450 tons to 147,425 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 7,762 tons to 152,655 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5] 3.2 Strategy - The strategy for copper is neutral, with an expected shock range of 99,500 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to decline, and the cost support of tight ore for copper prices remains. The supply is relatively sufficient, while the demand is cautious due to the off - season and high copper prices before. The refined copper social inventory is accumulating seasonally. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,230 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,970 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 218,898 lots, up 1,466 lots. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper are - 51,902 lots, up 44 lots. The LME copper inventory is 147,425 tons, up 3,850 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 48,550 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 148,193 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 100,725 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 100,615 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 36 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 25.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is - 505 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 spread is 67.55 dollars/ton, up 6.03 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.53 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 90,910 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan; in Yunnan is 91,610 yuan/metal ton, down 630 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,290 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment completion is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment completion is 82,788 billion yuan, up 419.71 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,810 million pieces, up 418 million pieces [2] 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 28.14%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.24%, down 0.11%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 24.72%, down 0.0582%; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.55, down 0.0687 [2] 7. Industry News - In 2025, China implemented a series of more proactive macro - policies, promoting economic structure optimization and upgrading. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% compared with the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate has rebounded for 4 consecutive months since September. The consumer goods trade - in policy promoted high - quality durable consumer goods into residents' lives. At the end of 2025, the number of household cars per 100 households reached 52.9, an increase of 1.7 compared with the end of the previous year. The GDP in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase over the previous year. The per - capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.0% over the previous year. In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. In 2025, it increased by 5.9% compared with the previous year. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the economic growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The investment growth in information technology driven by AI is an important driving force for the global economy. Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [2]

Group 1 - In December, China's import of aluminum ore and its concentrates was 14.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. The cumulative import for the year reached 200.53 million tons, an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The export volume of alumina in December was 210,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. The total export volume for the year was 2.55 million tons, which is a 42.7% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2 - The total import of metal ores and sands in December was 14.71 million tons, with a total value of 191.98 billion RMB. The cumulative import for the year was 160.87 million tons, valued at 194.72 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in quantity and 8.8% in value [3]. - The import of iron ore and concentrates in December was 11.97 million tons, with a total value of 85.80 billion RMB. The cumulative import for the year was 125.87 million tons, valued at 88.04 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in quantity but a decrease of 6.6% in value [3]. - The import of copper ore and concentrates in December was 270,000 tons, valued at 5.81 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% in quantity and 33.4% in value. The cumulative import for the year was 3.03 million tons, valued at 59.39 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in quantity and 24.0% in value [3].

Core Insights - In 2025, Henan Province's foreign trade reached 935.67 billion yuan, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase, surpassing the national growth rate by 10.3% [1] - Exports totaled 616.82 billion yuan, up 18%, while imports were 318.85 billion yuan, growing by 7.2% [1] - The province's contribution to national foreign trade growth rose from 0.5% in 2024 to 7% in 2025, showcasing Henan's resilience and competitive spirit [1] Group 1: Trade Scale and Growth - The foreign trade scale reached a new peak, ranking 10th nationally and 2nd in Central China, with continuous record-breaking monthly figures since April [1] - The number of enterprises engaged in import and export activities increased to 15,300, with 2,207 new companies entering the market [1] - Enterprises with over 1 billion yuan in import and export volume totaled 72, contributing 691.21 billion yuan, a 20.9% increase, boosting the overall growth rate by 14.5 percentage points [1] Group 2: Export Product Upgrades - Exports of electromechanical products reached 409.63 billion yuan, a 23.3% increase, accounting for 66.4% of total exports, up 2.9 percentage points [2] - The "new three items" (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products) collectively exported 33.61 billion yuan, a 1.8-fold increase, with electric vehicle exports alone reaching 30.87 billion yuan, a 2.5-fold increase [2] Group 3: Market Diversification - Henan's foreign trade partners expanded to over 200 countries and regions, with trade with the top five partners totaling 488.22 billion yuan, representing 52.2% of total trade [2] - Trade with the EU and ASEAN grew by 18.1% and 15.6%, respectively, while growth rates for the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia exceeded 25% [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 442.23 billion yuan, a 14.3% increase [2] Group 4: Open Capability Enhancement - The Zhengzhou-Luxembourg "Air Silk Road" handled over 140,000 tons of cargo, highlighting its role in connectivity [3] - The TIR international road transport business expanded, with 22 new routes to nine countries, and the establishment of the first international road transport hub in Zhengzhou [3] - The China-Europe (Asia) freight train service saw significant growth, with approximately 190,000 TEUs and nearly 1.9 million tons of cargo transported [3] - The five comprehensive bonded zones in Henan achieved a total import and export volume of 518.63 billion yuan, a 17% increase, accounting for 55.4% of the province's total trade [3]

Group 1 - The total import and export value of Ningbo City is projected to reach 1.46 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, maintaining a growth trend for ten consecutive years [1] - The number of foreign trade entities with import and export performance in Ningbo is expected to reach 31,500, with an increase of 2,195, highlighting the significant role of private enterprises, which will account for 77.9% of the city's foreign trade [1] - Ningbo's exports of "new three items" (electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and photovoltaic products) are expected to total 38.51 billion yuan, with a remarkable growth of 76.3%, particularly electric vehicle exports which are projected to increase by 295.1% [1] Group 2 - The import of raw materials and resources is showing strong growth, with imports of unrefined copper and copper products, natural and synthetic rubber, and glass products expected to reach 46.46 billion yuan, 4.48 billion yuan, and 3.73 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18.8%, 33.6%, and 40.3% [1] - The import of high-tech products is projected to be 43.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.5% [1] - The "ship-side direct pick-up" facilitation policy by customs has significantly optimized the customs clearance process for overseas raw materials, achieving a "zero wait" pick-up [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, Henan Province's foreign trade import and export is projected to reach 935.67 billion RMB, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase and surpassing 900 billion RMB for the first time [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - The total export value is expected to be 616.82 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% increase, while imports are anticipated to reach 318.85 billion RMB, growing by 7.2% [1] - Mechanical and electrical products will dominate exports, amounting to 409.63 billion RMB, a 23.3% increase, accounting for nearly 70% of total exports [1] - The import scale of mechanical products, agricultural products, and unwrought copper and copper materials will see year-on-year growth of 11.2%, 20.5%, and 45% respectively [1] Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises in Henan are increasingly becoming the main force in foreign trade, achieving a total import and export value of 617.58 billion RMB in 2025 [1] Group 3: Trade Partners and Growth - Henan's foreign trade partners will cover over 200 countries and regions, with the total import and export value to the top five trading partners reaching 488.22 billion RMB, accounting for 52.2% of the total [1] - Trade with the EU and ASEAN is expected to grow by 18.1% and 15.6% respectively, while growth rates for trade with the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia will exceed 25% [1] Group 4: Logistics and Infrastructure - The international air cargo throughput of the Zhengzhou-Luxembourg "Air Silk Road" is projected to exceed 140,000 tons in 2025 [2] - The TIR international road transport business has established 22 transport routes directly connecting Zhengzhou to nine countries, including Russia and Uzbekistan [2] - The first international road transport consolidation center in inland areas has been inaugurated in Zhengzhou, enhancing logistics capabilities [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Although domestic demand is affected by high copper prices, subsidies for some end - products in 2026 will continue, TC is still at a low level, and mine supply is tight. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the range between 99,600 yuan/ton and 101,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Comex inventory [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 15, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 104,350 yuan/ton and closed at 102,810 yuan/ton, a - 1.26% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 103,030 yuan/ton and closed at 102,860 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decline from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 80 - 320 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract, with an average premium of 200 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The spot price range was 102,160 - 102,990 yuan/ton. The main 2602 contract traded between 101,530 - 103,500 yuan/ton. The cross - month spread was between Contango 380 - 200 yuan, and the monthly import loss was about 1,560 - 1,770 yuan/ton. Shanghai's inventory increased by 17,400 tons compared to January 12, mainly in the form of warehouse receipts [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: On January 14, the US government announced that President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and their derivatives [3] - **Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four - week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two - year low [3] - **Fed Chair News**: Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and he tends to choose the next Fed chair between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [3] 3.2 Supply - related Information 3.2.1 Mine End - Global key mineral supply chains are under increasing pressure. The demand for copper, lithium, nickel and rare earths is growing faster than new supply. About $5 trillion of cumulative investment is needed by 2035 to meet key mineral demand, and current exploration spending is 40% - 50% lower than required. The average cycle from discovery to first production is 16 years. Codelco's Ministo Hales copper mine's expansion project to extend its mining life to 2054 has obtained environmental approval, with an investment of $2.8 billion and a planned increase in annual output from 170,000 tons to 200,000 tons [4] 3.2.2 Smelting and Import - Elemental Group plans to invest $800 million in two core projects, with two - thirds for a copper smelting and refining plant and the rest for a power battery metal refinery. The projects are named "Polvolt" and have received EU and Polish government subsidies [5] 3.3 Consumption Information - China's unforged copper and copper products imports in December 2025 were 437,000 tons, up from 427,000 tons in November. The cumulative imports in 2025 were 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% year - on - year decrease [5] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - LME warehouse receipts changed by 75,000 tons to 141,125 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 13,378 tons to 162,717 tons. On January 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 320,900 tons, a change of 27,500 tons from the previous week [6]