数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户 应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2026/1/8 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 101,220.00 | -2190.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 12,805.00 | -94.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -30.00 | +160.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and resilient demand, with a slight accumulation of social inventory, and copper prices are strongly influenced by macro - factors. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low positions with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 98,090 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,437 dollars/ton, up 215 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 219,725 hands, down 15,782 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 37,503 hands, up 3,144 hands. LME copper inventory is 154,575 tons, down 2,450 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 111,703 tons, up 15,898 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 71,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 97,620 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 97,715 yuan/ton, down 3,510 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 49 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 470 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 31.35 dollars/ton, up 11.66 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.9 dollars/thousand tons, down 1.25 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,490 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 92,190 yuan/metal ton, up 3,260 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the north, it is 1,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,870 yuan/ton, up 2,650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,350 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 56.04 billion yuan, up 7.7966 billion yuan. The cumulative investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.32%, down 0.64 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 39.69%, up 0.0953 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, down 0.0664 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair competition governance, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, and enhancing platform economy regulation. The National Energy Administration has called for promoting the implementation of the "three - year doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities and accelerating the construction of a high - quality charging infrastructure system. The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association believes that the auto market in 2026 will have a positive start in January but face some pressure in February. US President Trump has commented on the Fed chairman and is considering legal action against him [2]

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国铜材行业市场调查研究及投资策略研究报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国未锻轧铜及铜材进口数量为44万吨，同比下降13.5%，进口金 额为46.62亿美元，同比下降5.9%，2025年10月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口数量为13.43万吨，同比增长 67.8%，出口金额为14.44亿美元，同比增长76.7%。 近一年中国未锻轧铜及铜材进口情况统计图 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value reached 4.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 2 percentage points [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports totaled 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - November saw record monthly exports, with a total of 1.87 trillion yuan, marking an 18.2% increase, and imports at 200.9 billion yuan, up by 4.4% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - The EU remains the largest trading partner for Shanghai, with import and export growth accelerating by 1.1 percentage points in the first 11 months [1] - Significant growth in trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export Dynamics - Machinery and electrical products accounted for 65.4% of total exports, with a value of 1.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, particularly hybrid vehicles, surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, showcasing strong demand [2] - The export of liquid cargo ships increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan, driven by the green low-carbon trend [2] Import Trends - High-tech product imports reached 737.21 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%, with notable increases in semiconductor manufacturing equipment (35.4%), computers and components (24%), and aircraft (74.3%) [2] - The import of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products also saw growth, indicating active manufacturing sector activities [2] - Consumer market vitality is reflected in the increased imports of various consumer goods, including fruits, dairy products, toys, and sports equipment [2]

（来源：劳动报） 转自：劳动报 出口动能的升级亦十分明显。前11个月，上海市机电产品出口1.19万亿元，增长6.3%，占全市出口总值65.4%。"新三样"产品出口势头强劲，合计出口 1443.2亿元，增长16.5%，其中混动汽车出口257.2亿元，大幅增长174.8%。绿色低碳趋势也带动相关装备出口，液货船出口342.4亿元，增长130.5%。此外， 劳动密集型产品出口1808.6亿元，保持2.9%的稳定增长。 进口方面，高新技术产品与生产原料的增长反映出产业活力持续释放。前11个月，上海市进口高新技术产品7372.1亿元，增长6.3%，其中半导体制造设备、 电脑及其零部件、飞机进口分别增长35.4%、24%与74.3%。金属矿及矿砂、未锻轧铜及铜材等生产原料进口也分别增长11.5%和14%。消费品进口同样表现 活跃，水果、乳品进口分别增长17.8%和14.2%，玩具、游艺运动设备进口增长均超15%。 随着出口动能不断增强、市场布局持续优化，上海外贸在结构升级与规模扩张中展现出稳步向好的发展态势。 头图来源：图虫 据上海海关统计，今年前11个月，上海市外贸持续释放增长活力——进出口总值达4.1万亿元，同比增长 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China's imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates have significantly increased in November 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.9%, totaling 15.11 million tons, and a cumulative increase of 29.4% for the first eleven months of the year, reaching 185.96 million tons [1][2] - In November 2025, China's alumina exports decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, amounting to 170,000 tons, while the cumulative exports for the first eleven months increased by 46.7%, totaling 2.34 million tons [1][2] Group 2 - The detailed statistics show that the import of aluminum ore and its concentrates in November was 1.511 million tons, with a monetary value of 744.67 million yuan, and the cumulative import for the first eleven months was 18.596 million tons, valued at 10.542 billion yuan [2] - The export of alumina in November was 17,000 tons, valued at 54.705 million yuan, while the cumulative export for the first eleven months was 234,000 tons, valued at 866.308 million yuan [2]

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value increased by 5.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, reaching 4.1 trillion yuan, which is 2 percentage points higher than the national average growth rate [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports reached 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - In November alone, the import and export value was 387.49 billion yuan, marking a 10.6% increase, with exports hitting a record high of 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - Shanghai's trade with the European Union, its largest trading partner, reached 742.31 billion yuan, growing by 1.4% [1] - Trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa saw significant growth, with increases of 12.6%, 17.5%, and 28.9% respectively, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export and Import Composition - In the first 11 months, Shanghai exported 1.19 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, accounting for 65.4% of total exports, with "new three types" products growing by 16.5% [2] - Notably, hybrid vehicle exports surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, while liquid cargo ship exports increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan [2] - High-tech product imports totaled 737.21 billion yuan, with significant growth in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, computers, and aircraft, reflecting a robust manufacturing sector [2] Consumer Goods and Market Activity - The import of consumer goods showed positive trends, with fruit and dairy product imports growing by 17.8% and 14.2% respectively, alongside toys and sports equipment imports increasing by 17% and 15.1% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract is 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,735 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 231,253 lots, up 7,279 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are - 33,302 lots, down 996 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,925 tons, up 325 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 89,389 tons, up 484 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipt is 44,650 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 92,240 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the Yangtze River non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 92,395 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 360 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.8 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.08 dollars/kiloton, down 0.22 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 82,500 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 83,200 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 1,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unforged copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment completed is 4,824.34 billion yuan, up 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 78,590.9 billion yuan, up 5,028.2 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 18.1%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.18%, down 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 19.27%, up 0.0112. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0181 [2] Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" starts with a moderately loose monetary policy aiming for economic growth and price recovery, with expected reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts next year. The Fed official indicates a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space. In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis [2]. - On the fundamental raw material side, the spot processing fee index of copper concentrate remained at a low negative level, and the expectation of tight ore supply would have a long - term impact on the copper smelting end, providing cost support [2]. - In terms of supply, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, was still relatively good, making up for some of the profit losses of smelters. The operating rate of smelters rebounded due to the resumption of production after previous overhauls, but the increase was only slight due to the tight raw materials [2]. - In terms of demand, boosted by macro expectations, copper prices were strong in the short term, but high prices inhibited the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers, who became more cautious, and social inventories increased slightly [2]. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.25, a month - on - month increase of 0.1264, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were below the 0 axis, and the green bars slightly converged. The conclusion was to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 91,920.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 11,593.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 62.50 US dollars [2]. - The spread between adjacent months of the main contract was - 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.00 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 217,374.00 lots, an increase of 51,565.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,081.00 lots, a decrease of 1,852.00 lots; the LME copper inventory was 165,875.00 tons, a decrease of 25.00 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389.00 tons, an increase of 484.00 tons; the cancelled LME copper warrants were 65,400.00 tons, a decrease of 600.00 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 45,784.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 91,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565.00 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 91,995.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400.00 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 48.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 4.39 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25.08 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.08 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.22 US dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 82,200.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 82,900.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 460.00 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 1,000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000.00 tons, a decrease of 13,000.00 tons [2]. - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 63,090.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 970.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 0.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78,150.00 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative real estate development investment was 78,591.00 billion yuan, an increase of 5,028.30 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,390,000.00 million pieces, an increase of 213,000.00 million pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.87%, a decrease of 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 17.09%, an increase of 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 16.98%, a decrease of 0.0164%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.25, an increase of 0.1264 [2] 3.7 Industry News - China's economic "report card" for November was released. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year. From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, among which manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November remained unchanged at 5.1% [2]. - Xi Jinping's important article "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" was published in Qiushi Journal. The article pointed out that expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and economic security, and it is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure. Implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand is necessary for maintaining the long - term, sustainable and healthy development of China's economy and for meeting the people's growing needs for a better life [2]. - Federal Reserve's Williams said that monetary policy is well - prepared for 2026. It is expected that the US unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025. The risks in the labor market have increased, while inflation risks have eased. The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral. It is expected that the inflation rate will rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027. The Fed is expected to actively use the standing repurchase facility to manage liquidity [2]. - Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed's policy stance poses unnecessary restrictions on the economy, and believes that after excluding "phantom inflation", the "underlying" inflation level is close to the Fed's target [2]

Group 1 - The province's foreign trade achieved a breakthrough with a total import and export value of 840.24 billion yuan in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, surpassing last year's total and exceeding the national growth rate by 9.9 percentage points [1] - Exports reached 552.57 billion yuan, growing by 18%, while imports totaled 287.67 billion yuan, increasing by 5.8% [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance increased to 14,400, a growth of 13.5%, with 1,031 enterprises having an import and export value exceeding 50 million yuan, up by 14.2% [1] Group 2 - The EU and ASEAN remain the province's top two trading partners, with import and export values of 112.89 billion yuan (up 17.5%) and 112.69 billion yuan (up 13%), respectively [2] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 70% of total exports, amounting to 365.29 billion yuan, a growth of 22.9% [2] - The province's imports of mechanical and electrical products reached 178.92 billion yuan, increasing by 9.6%, representing 62.2% of total imports [2] Group 3 - The province's five comprehensive bonded zones reported a total import and export value of 466.53 billion yuan, growing by 17.2%, accounting for 55.5% of the province's total import and export value [3] - The four bonded logistics centers achieved a combined import and export value of 6.76 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 50.6% [3] - The province's free trade pilot zone recorded an import and export value of 82.09 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4% [3] Group 4 - In the first 11 months, 12 provincial cities and the Jiyuan Demonstration Zone achieved positive growth in import and export [4]