先发制人降息

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中金:美联储不会先发制人降息 未来的降息路径将取决于关税谈判
智通财经网· 2025-05-07 23:38
第二种情形是,贸易谈判达成有效成果,短期内对美国经济的需求冲击将缓解,但通胀压力可能会维持 一段时间。中金预计在此情况下,美联储将推迟降息,首次降息时点可能延后至12月,幅度也将更加温 和。 智通财经APP获悉,中金公司发布研报称,美联储5月会议按兵不动,符合市场预期。货币政策声明指 出失业率上升与通胀走高的风险均已加剧,暗示政策环境面临"滞胀"风险,但由于当前经济数据仍然稳 健,美联储也不急于行动。中金认为,美联储短期内不会降息,尤其不会先发制人降息,未来的降息路 径将取决于关税谈判:若谈判未取得实质性进展、关税居高不下,美联储可能被迫开启"衰退式"降息, 年底前或降息100个基点;但若谈判达成有效成果、关税降低,美联储或推迟至12月降息,降息幅度也 将更加温和。 中金认为,鲍威尔的表态意味着美联储不会在短期内降息,尤其不会先发制人降息。换句话说,在通胀 可能因为关税而具有上行风险之际,美联储托举经济的能力被压缩。这种情况与2019年特朗普第一任期 内中美贸易摩擦时期不一样,当年美联储面对放缓的经济和低迷的通胀,能够"轻松"降息三次。而中金 认为,现在的环境并不允许美联储采取先发制人的做法,对决策者而言,正 ...
先发制人降息?鲍威尔:今时不同往日
news flash· 2025-05-07 19:20
Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is significantly different from 2019, making preemptive interest rate cuts inappropriate at this time [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Context** - Current inflation rates are above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, contrasting with 2019 when inflation was below this target [1] - There are expectations of upward inflationary pressures due to tariffs [1] - **Policy Response** - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, emphasizes the need for more data before determining the correct policy response [1] - Powell indicates that preemptive actions are not feasible without further information [1]
美国克利夫兰联储主席Hammack(2026年FOMC票委):现在不是先发制人降息的好时机。
news flash· 2025-04-23 23:28
Core Viewpoint - The President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Hammack, stated that now is not the right time for a preemptive interest rate cut [1] Group 1 - Hammack emphasized the importance of waiting for more economic data before making any decisions on interest rates [1] - The current economic conditions do not warrant an immediate reduction in rates, suggesting a cautious approach [1] - Hammack's comments reflect a broader sentiment within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of monetary policy adjustments [1]