Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the A-share market and investor sentiment in the context of geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Consensus on Index Bottom**: The consensus among investors is that the Shanghai Composite Index's bottom is between 3,700 and 3,800 points, aligning with the annual line at approximately 3,740 points, indicating a prevailing "bullish mindset" [1][2]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: Overall investor positions are low, with a stronger inclination among absolute return investors to increase their positions compared to relative return investors [2][3]. 3. **Concerns Affecting Investment Decisions**: Investors express concerns about geopolitical conflicts and potential stagflation or recession, which dampen their willingness to increase positions despite a neutral outlook on the market [3][4]. 4. **Economic Growth Expectations**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.6% and 4.7%, with annual return and profit growth expectations concentrated in the 5% to 10% range [1][3]. 5. **Liquidity and Oil Price Expectations**: The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates at least once in 2026, with oil prices expected to stabilize between $90 and $100 per barrel [1][4]. 6. **Investment Style and Focus**: There is a consensus on balanced asset allocation with an emphasis on value, focusing on "new and old energy" sectors, including upstream resources and new manufacturing [5][6]. 7. **Performance Expectations for Q1 2026**: AI computing power, particularly in North America and domestic chains, is viewed as the most certain sector for exceeding performance expectations, along with certain upstream resources and non-ferrous metals [7]. 8. **Investor Sentiment on Hong Kong Market**: Most investors believe that the Hong Kong stock market will struggle to outperform the A-share market in 2026, with a low willingness to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [8]. Additional Important Insights - The survey included over 260 fund managers and researchers from more than 140 domestic core institutions, with a significant representation from public funds and insurance asset management [2]. - Despite concerns about geopolitical risks, the prevailing view is that these factors are short-term disturbances rather than significant threats to the fundamentals [3][4]. - There is a notable expectation of a divergence in performance between sectors perceived as defensive and those expected to exceed earnings forecasts, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions [7].

Group 1: Overseas Macro Impact - The Middle East conflict has disrupted the supply of crude oil and industrial raw materials, leading to a temporary "false prosperity" in manufacturing due to precautionary inventory buildup[1] - The service sector is beginning to show negative impacts from the conflict, with consumer confidence in the US slightly declining to 53.3 in March, down 3.3 from February[11] - European economies are experiencing a more significant impact compared to other regions, with the ZEW economic sentiment index dropping to -8.5, the lowest since April 2025[15] Group 2: Domestic Macro Trends - China's economy shows signs of recovery, with exports growing by 39.6% in February and manufacturing investment turning positive with a 3.1% year-on-year increase[18][22] - Consumer retail sales increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January and February, indicating marginal improvement in domestic consumption[20] - The inventory cycle is on the rise, with production inventory increasing by 6.6% year-on-year, suggesting a potential for sustained economic recovery[28] Group 3: Policy Environment - The global policy environment is characterized by rising geopolitical risks and a slowdown in easing measures, with central banks adopting a more cautious stance[2] - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, slightly down from 5% in the previous year, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy[33] - The focus of domestic policy is shifting towards structural adjustments and stabilizing growth, with plans for significant issuance of special bonds and fiscal tools to support consumption and investment[34] Group 4: Asset Class Insights - The recent market logic is driven by the Middle East conflict, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 44.3% in the past month, impacting inflation expectations and leading to a decline in global stock markets[39] - There are opportunities for gradual stock market positioning, particularly in sectors related to mineral and technology safety, as geopolitical tensions evolve[41] - Gold prices have seen a significant drop, but long-term geopolitical instability and inflation expectations may support a future price increase[42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the gold market experienced a sharp shift from "safe - haven frenzy" to "stagflation concerns", with the short - term safe - haven property of gold temporarily overshadowed by soaring interest rate expectations, creating a false impression of "ineffectiveness". In Q2, investors should focus on the "golden pit" layout opportunities between interest rates and geopolitical conflicts [1]. - The current market is forming a "stagflation - like" pattern. In the short term, gold may be under pressure, but as economic downward pressure emerges, its anti - inflation and safe - haven values will re - emerge [2]. - Gold is expected to have a wide - range shock and bottom - building in the short term (1 - 3 months), its allocation value will significantly increase in the medium term (3 - 6 months) if economic data continues to be weak, and it has a long - term bullish logic supported by structural factors in the long term (6 - 12 months). Silver will follow gold to bottom and wait for industrial demand to catalyze in Q2 [3]. - Investors can consider 4300 US dollars per ounce as a tactical layout reference area, and if the price approaches 3900 - 4000 US dollars per ounce due to extreme sentiment, it should be regarded as an important strategic adding opportunity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Market Review: Violent Fluctuations under Geopolitical Conflicts and Policy Shifts - **Geopolitical Conflicts: From Safe - Haven Pulse to Risk Re - evaluation**: In early March, the US - Israel joint military action against Iran triggered a safe - haven pulse in the market. COMEX gold once exceeded 5400 US dollars per ounce, and Brent crude oil price soared. However, as the conflict situation eased marginally in mid - to late March, high oil prices led to an increase in global inflation expectations, changing the market's macro trading logic [7][10]. - **Monetary Policy Shift: The Fed's Hawkish Signal as the Market Watershed**: The Fed's March interest - rate meeting sent a strong hawkish signal, reversing the market's easing expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields directly suppressed the price of gold, and the price of gold dropped significantly [11][14]. - **Asset Performance Differentiation: Different Paths of Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil**: Gold showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while silver performed significantly weaker than gold, with a quarterly decline of more than 4% due to the suppression of its financial and industrial attributes [15][18]. - **Market Structure Change: From Crowded Trading to Liquidity Shock**: The highly crowded long positions in the gold market at the end of 2025 to early 2026 became an amplifier of the market decline when the price turned. The triggering of stop - loss orders in program trading and the widening of bid - ask spreads by market - makers led to a sharp decline in market liquidity [21][24]. - **Structural Factors: Marginal Changes in Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks' continuous gold - buying behavior provided long - term support for the gold price. However, in Q1 2026, the motivation for central bank gold purchases weakened significantly, and selling behavior increased compared to 2025 [25][28]. 3.2 Macro Environment Analysis: The Fed's Hawkish Stance, Inflation Pressure, and Economic Stagflation Risk - **Monetary Policy: A Clear Shift from "Wait - and - See" to "Tightening"**: The Fed's decision in the March interest - rate meeting marked a fundamental shift in its policy stance. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts decreased significantly, and global central banks mostly maintained a hawkish or tightening stance, which put short - term pressure on the gold price [30][33]. - **Inflation Drivers: Energy Prices as the Core Driver and Policy Constraint**: Geopolitical conflicts led to an energy crisis, which was the main driver of inflation. High oil prices increased inflation and suppressed economic growth, forming a stagflation risk. If inflation persists, it may increase the demand for gold as an anti - inflation asset [38][41]. - **Economic Outlook: The Co - existence of "Stagnation" Signs and "Inflation" Pressure**: The US economy showed signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising and the manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line. The global economic growth expectation faced a downward risk, and the current environment formed a "stagflation - like" pattern, which was a stage where gold could play its unique value [42][46]. - **Interest Rates and the US Dollar: Twin Shackles Suppressing Precious Metals**: The Fed's hawkish stance led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of the US dollar, which directly suppressed the price of gold. The market was in a game between "interest - rate suppression" and "safe - haven/anti - inflation support" [47][50]. 3.3 Geopolitical Impact Mechanism: The Double - Game and Transmission Path of the Middle East Conflict on Gold - The impact of the Middle East conflict on gold is through two opposite transmission paths: the safe - haven demand support path and the interest - rate expectation suppression path. In Q1 2026, the market's focus shifted from the safe - haven support path to the interest - rate expectation suppression path, and the pricing logic of gold has changed from being driven by geopolitical events to being driven by macro - policy expectations [51][52]. 3.4 Re - examination of Gold's Safe - Haven Property: Verification of Long - Term Logic and Analysis of Short - Term Ineffectiveness - **Solid Foundation and Continuous Verification of Long - Term Safe - Haven Logic**: Gold's long - term safe - haven logic is based on its currency property, scarcity, and functions of hedging long - term inflation and currency depreciation. It has been continuously verified in the long - term, and current structural factors are strengthening this logic [54]. - **Characteristics and Core Mechanisms of Short - Term "Ineffectiveness" in Q1 2026**: In March 2026, the short - term performance of gold was contrary to traditional safe - haven cognition. This "ineffectiveness" was the result of multiple suppression mechanisms under specific market conditions, rather than the disappearance of its safe - haven property [55]. - **Differentiated Performance of Short - Term and Long - Term Logic Based on the Nature of the Crisis**: Gold's safe - haven property depends on the nature of the crisis. In the short term, it may be affected by interest - rate and liquidity factors, but in the long term, its safe - haven and anti - inflation properties will re - emerge [56]. - **Subsequent Verification: Key Indicators for Observing the Return of Long - Term Logic**: In Q2, key indicators such as the Fed's policy and inflation game, market liquidity, geopolitical risk transmission path, and the continuity of structural demand should be closely monitored to judge whether gold's safe - haven property will return to the dominant state [57][58]. 3.5 Future Gold Price Changes at Different Time Nodes - **Short - Term (1 - 3 months)**: The gold price will be affected by the after - effects of the liquidity shock and the tug - of - war of interest - rate expectations. It may show a wide - range shock pattern in the early stage of Q2, and 4200 US dollars per ounce is the first support level to be verified [61]. - **Medium - Term (3 - 6 months)**: The market will focus on economic data verification. If economic data continues to be weak, the market will trade the economic recession risk and expect the Fed to loosen monetary policy, and the allocation value of gold will significantly increase [62]. - **Long - Term (6 - 12 months)**: Gold's pricing logic has shifted to a structural bull market driven by the deep - seated transformation of the global monetary system. Global debt, central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization process provide long - term support for gold [64]. 3.6 Silver Market Analysis: Industrial Attributes, Relative Performance, and Q2 Outlook - **Reasons for the Silver Price Decline in Q1**: In Q1 2026, the silver market was weak, with a decline of 4.26% in the London silver spot price. Its weakness was due to the simultaneous pressure on its financial and industrial attributes. The financial attribute was suppressed by the Fed's hawkish stance, and the industrial demand expectation was weakened by the uncertain global economic outlook [67][68]. - **Q2 Silver Outlook: Following Gold to Bottom and Waiting for Industrial Demand Catalysis**: In Q2, silver will mainly follow gold to fluctuate. If the market expects the Fed to loosen policy in the middle and late Q2, the suppression of silver's financial attribute will be alleviated. The recovery of industrial demand may drive silver to have an independent upward market, but it also faces greater downward risks [69][70].

Group 1: Monthly Performance Review - In March 2026, the CSI 300 index fell by 4.93%, and the ChiNext index decreased by 2.21%. The monthly gold stock portfolio recorded a return of -12.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.24 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 9.96 percentage points [3][10]. - The March market was characterized by high volatility due to policy expectations from the Two Sessions and escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Early in the month, the Two Sessions emphasized expanding investment, domestic demand, and technological innovation, which boosted market confidence. However, worsening Middle Eastern tensions led to international oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, increasing global "stagflation" trading [3][17]. Group 2: Strategy Outlook for April 2026 - The A-share market in April is expected to remain volatile, primarily influenced by uncertainties in the Middle East, which limits the upward potential of the index. A prudent allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend assets (banks, transportation, public utilities) to mitigate volatility while also investing in energy security sectors such as electric power equipment and new energy (lithium batteries, photovoltaics) [4][18]. - The macroeconomic fundamentals show that March, being a traditional peak season for work resumption, saw the PMI return to the expansion zone, with strong investment, social financing, and export figures in January and February. However, the internal driving force for consumption remains insufficient [3][17]. Group 3: Recommended Stocks for April 2026 - The recommended stocks for the April 2026 monthly gold stock portfolio include: - 300750.SZ Ningde Times - 301358.SZ Hunan Youneng - 600989.SH Baofeng Energy - 002648.SZ Satellite Chemical - 603806.SH Foster - 688630.SH Chipbond - 601952.SH Sukang Agricultural Development - 002594.SZ BYD - 300394.SZ Tianfu Communication - 600595.SH Zhongfu Industrial [5][21]. - The rationale for these recommendations includes: - Ningde Times is a leader in the lithium battery industry, benefiting from the growth in demand for energy storage and power batteries. - Hunan Youneng is a leader in the LFP industry, also benefiting from the increasing demand for energy storage batteries. - Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical are both leaders in coal chemical and light hydrocarbon chemical sectors, respectively, benefiting from rising oil prices [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Attention to trial long [1] - Silver: Mainly on the sidelines [1] - Copper: Hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Tin: Rebound [3] - Aluminum: Rebound [3] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [3] - Industrial Silicon: Pressured to fall back [3] - Polysilicon: Decline [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US and Iran have released intentions to ease the situation, but global inflation is rising. There are still uncertainties in the short - term war situation. Radical long - term investors can pay attention to the bottom arrival of gold. Silver is under short - term pressure and it is difficult to participate. Copper is expected to rise in the medium - and long - term, and zinc continues to rebound. Lead's price is under short - term rebound pressure. Carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillation and waiting to stabilize. Tin, aluminum show short - term rebound trends, while nickel's rebound is under pressure. Industrial silicon is pressured to fall back, and polysilicon prices decline [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Core view: Attention to trial long. Main logic: The US and Iran have released intentions to ease the situation, market sentiment has eased, but global inflation is rising. There are still many uncontrollable factors disturbing the market, and recession trading and liquidity crises still exist. Short - term war situation is full of uncertainties. Radical long - term investors can pay attention to the bottom arrival [1] - Market data: SHFE gold latest price is 1020.1, up 0.51% from the previous value, and up 0.61% from last week; COMEX gold latest price is 4700, up 3.51% from the previous value, and up 5.02% from last week. Spot gold (T + D) latest price is 1015.68, up 0.67% from the previous value, and up 2.62% from last week. London gold spot price is 4669, up 3.44% from the previous value, and up 4.40% from last week [4] Silver - Core view: Mainly on the sidelines. Main logic: Silver is linked with gold. The short - term market trades inflation and stagflation, silver is trampled and under short - term pressure. Although silver is in an inventory state, the fundamentals are ignored. It is unknown when the Iranian situation will end, and it is difficult to participate in silver in the short - term [1] - Market data: SHFE silver latest price is 18126, up 2.37% from the previous value, and up 0.08% from last week; COMEX silver latest price is 75, up 7.36% from the previous value, and up 5.46% from last week. Silver (T + D) latest price is 18031, up 2.68% from the previous value, and up 4.27% from last week. London silver spot price is 75.1, up 7.22% from the previous value, and up 5.37% from last week [4] Copper - Core view: Hold long positions. Main logic: The Middle East situation has eased, the US and Iran have released intentions to end the conflict. Three Chinese cargo ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar has fallen 0.7% during the day, crude oil has declined, domestic demand has recovered, inventory has been destocked, copper has oscillated upwards and broken through the range. The medium - and long - term outlook for copper is still positive [1] - Market data: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract is 96760 yuan/ton, up 1.26% from the previous day; LME copper is 12383 US dollars/ton, up 1.54%; COMEX copper is 565.2 US dollars/pound, up 3.01%. Domestic social inventory has decreased by 2.43 million tons, and SHFE inventory has decreased by 5.2 million tons [6] Zinc - Core view: Rebound. Main logic: The macro and sector sentiment is positive. There is an expectation of production cuts in overseas smelters, and zinc ingots at home and abroad are being destocked, so zinc continues to rebound [1] - Market data: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract is 23695 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day; LME zinc is 3214 US dollars/ton, up 1.01%. The inventory of SHFE zinc warehouse receipts has decreased by 2043 tons, and the SMM seven - region social inventory has decreased by 0.13 million tons [9] Lead - Core view: Rebound under pressure. Main logic: The current supply - demand weak pattern in the lead market continues. The accumulation of domestic lead ingots exceeds expectations, and the demand of downstream battery enterprises is not good, so the lead price is under short - term rebound pressure [1] Carbonate Lithium - Core view: Wide - range oscillation. Main logic: The total inventory has a small accumulation, the increase in production makes it difficult for the price to rise. There are uncertainties in the supply side at home and abroad, and there are many market rumors. Wait for the stabilization [2] - Market data: The main contract LC2605 price is 157,200 yuan/ton, down 8.40% from the previous value. The weekly production of carbonate lithium is 24,610 tons, up 1.01% from the previous week; the weekly inventory is 99,489 tons, up 0.62% from the previous week [20] Tin - Core view: Rebound. Main logic: The supply of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar overseas is gradually recovering, the start - up of major smelting enterprises in Yunnan and other places in China is stable, and the orders of downstream tin solder enterprises are relatively flat, so the tin price shows a short - term rebound trend [3] Aluminum - Core view: Rebound. Main logic: There is an expectation of tightening of bauxite in Guinea overseas, electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East has been cut, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a high level, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has rebounded, so the aluminum price shows a short - term rebound trend [3] - Market data: The closing price of LME aluminum is 3436 US dollars/ton, down 0.26% from the previous value; the closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 24875 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The SMM aluminum ingot social inventory is 137.3 million tons, up 1.78% from the previous week [12] Nickel - Core view: Rebound under pressure. Main logic: The issue of Indonesian export ore tax continues to cause disturbances, the domestic nickel inventory is still at a high level, the inventory of downstream stainless steel has accumulated again due to poor consumption, so the nickel price is under short - term rebound pressure [3] - Market data: The closing price of LME nickel is 17350 US dollars/ton, up 0.78% from the previous value; the closing price of SHFE nickel main contract is 137120 yuan/ton, up 0.01%. The SMM pure nickel social inventory is 89808 tons, up 1.54% from the previous value [16] Industrial Silicon - Core view: Pressured to fall back. Main logic: The industry meeting brings the expectation of anti - involution policy again, and there are still disturbances in the cost side, which drives the price to rebound. However, the supply - demand weakness in the fundamentals limits the price elasticity, and it is mainly for range operation [3] Polysilicon - Core view: Decline. Main logic: The resumption of production of polysilicon in April has increased, but the production schedule of downstream silicon wafer factories has been reduced, and the industry has turned to inventory accumulation again. The spot price has been further reduced, and the futures price is anchored to the enterprise's cash cost, so it is bearish operation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginally improved and inventories are gradually being reduced, there is no trend - upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment. It is recommended to focus on the situation of manganese ore and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. - For coking coal and coke, there are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - The price of polycrystalline silicon is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. The pattern of weak downstream feedback and high silicon material inventory remains unchanged [19]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. Although there is supply contraction expectation and cost - side support, the actual recovery of terminal demand remains to be seen [22]. - The soda ash market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend under the game between short - term supply tightening and continuous weak demand [24]. 3. Key Points by Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 83113 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 901,100 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 546,018 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 773,100 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Macroscopically, new construction shows a large decline, and the real - estate investment repair momentum is insufficient. The short - term support of real estate for steel demand is limited, and terminal demand is likely to remain weak. Fundamentally, supply and demand both increase, and inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace. The rebar demand is recovering, and the supply is marginally decreasing, with good inventory reduction, but the overall situation is still neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 808.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.62% (-5.00). The position changed by - 17,797 lots to 353,600 lots. The weighted position was 904,000 lots. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 17.07 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.07% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period significantly declined. Australian shipments were affected by cyclones and have gradually recovered, while Brazilian shipments increased to a high level in the same period. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased steadily. The near - term arrival volume increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal production increased by 2.94 tons to 231.09 tons. It is expected that hot - metal production still has room to rise. The steel mills' profitability continued to rise slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline from a high level, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased from a low level [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On March 31, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 2.19% at 644 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6350 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6590 yuan/ton, a premium of 96 yuan/ton over the futures price. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed down 3.17% at 5874 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market's trading on stagflation and recession persists. The black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit the alloy cost side. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. The future market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black sector, the cost - push problem of manganese ore in the manganese silicon segment, and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On March 31, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed down 5.40% at 1148.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1562.6 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1372.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 224 yuan/ton over the futures price. The coke main contract (J2605) closed down 2.97% at 1701.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1747 yuan/ton, a premium of 45.5 yuan/ton over the futures price [12]. Strategy Views - Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the black sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The "energy substitution" property of coal may benefit coal prices. In terms of the varieties themselves, the short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is still relatively loose. There are insufficient fundamental factors to support a sharp short - term price rebound. Short - term operations or temporary waiting are recommended, while a long - term optimistic view is held for coking coal prices from June to October [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.47% (-125). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,541 lots to 360,314 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 795 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, with a basis of 445 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [16]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 35,200 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.69% (-1350). The weighted contract position changed by - 34 lots to 53,472 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 41.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 37.5 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type recycled material was 38.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 3300 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate as the upper and lower price limits are not fully opened [17]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The negative feedback adjustment continues. The factory inventory remains high, and downstream restocking willingness is low. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1019 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-21). The North China large - plate price was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, down 814,000 boxes (-1.09%) month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders added 12,207 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders added 24,029 short positions [21]. - Soda ash: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, down 2.49% (-30). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1157 yuan, down 30 from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, down 0.0019 million tons (-1.09%) month - on - month. The heavy - soda inventory was 905,300 tons, up 14,600 tons month - on - month; the light - soda inventory was 946,600 tons, down 16,500 tons month - on - month. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 17,206 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 13,018 short positions [23]. Strategy Views - Glass: The spot trading atmosphere is weak, and terminal demand recovery is less than expected. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation. The reference range for the main contract is 1000 - 1050 yuan/ton [22]. - Soda ash: The industry's operating rate has declined, and local supply has tightened. Demand remains weak. The market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1210 yuan/ton [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 1970s, during the two oil crises, the gold price increased nearly 20 - fold, rising from an average monthly price of $35 per ounce to a maximum of $675 per ounce. The gold price trends during the two oil crises had different rhythms and magnitudes of increase [3][8]. - In the short - term, the gold price has significantly corrected. This is mainly due to the high oil prices under the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, and liquidity tightening. In the long - term, the trend of de - globalization still exists, and it is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold [3]. - Referring to the two oil crises, as oil prices remain high, the gold price will resume its upward trend. The central bank's gold purchases will dominate the rise of the gold price, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [58][62][74]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Two Oil Crisis Reviews 3.1.1 First Oil Crisis (1973.10 - 1974.3) - **Oil Price**: After the outbreak of the Fourth Middle - East War in October 1973, the oil price rose from $3 per barrel to $13 per barrel. After the cancellation of the oil embargo on the US in March 1974, the oil price declined but stabilized at around $10 per barrel [8][9]. - **Inflation**: The rapid increase in oil prices led to double - digit CPI in the US in 1974, with a peak of 12.2% in November 1974 [10]. - **Economic Recession**: The US GDP growth rate started to decline in Q4 1973, turned negative in Q2 1974, and returned to positive growth five quarters later [11]. - **Gold Price**: In the early stage, the gold price fluctuated due to the strong US dollar index. From November 1973 to April 1974, it rose rapidly by 81%. After the oil price peaked in March 1974, the gold price briefly declined and then rose to a new high. From 1975 - 1976.8, due to economic recovery and the selling of gold by the IMF and the US Treasury, the gold price corrected by nearly 40% [17][19][22]. 3.1.2 Second Oil Crisis (1978 end - 1980 end) - **Oil Price**: Due to the Iranian Islamic Revolution and the Iran - Iraq War, the oil price rose from $13 per barrel to $43 per barrel, with an increase of about 180% in 1979 [29]. - **Inflation**: The inflation rate in the US accelerated, with the CPI year - on - year growth rate rising from 6.7% at the end of 1977 to 13.3% in April 1980 [29]. - **Economic Situation**: The US economy fell into stagflation again, with the GDP growth rate starting to decline in Q2 1979 [29]. - **Gold Price**: In 1979, due to the weak US dollar index, the gold price rose by 119%. In 1980, under the strong monetary tightening policy, the gold price first reached a peak and then corrected. After 1980, as the US gradually emerged from inflation, the gold price started a downward trend [27][30][33]. 3.2 Current Gold Price Analysis - **Oil Price Increase**: In late February 2026, due to the full - scale escalation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the international oil price soared from $70 per barrel to over $110 per barrel, with an increase of nearly 50% [43]. - **Gold Price Decline**: The gold price did not rise but fell, mainly due to the strong US dollar, inflation concerns, and liquidity shocks. The gold price also moved in the same direction as the stock market, mainly affected by liquidity shocks [44][48][56]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Gold - **Resumption of Gold Price Increase**: Referring to the two oil crises, as long as the oil price remains high for a long time or has a second jump, forming a strong inflation expectation, and the macro - economy shows a decline in economic growth due to high oil prices, the gold price will resume its upward trend in a stagflation - like environment [61]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, global central banks have accelerated their gold purchases. It is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [62][73][74]. 3.4 Recommended Targets - The report recommends paying attention to Zijin Gold International, Chifeng Gold, Shan Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, etc. [3]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the commodity bull market of the 1970s and 1980s, attributing it to the collapse of the monetary credit system, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic mismanagement, which collectively led to a systemic revaluation of assets [1][12] - Understanding this historical cycle is crucial for assessing current asset allocation strategies amid structural challenges in global monetary credit and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][12] Commodity Price Mechanism (1970-1980) - The commodity price surge during this period was driven by three main forces: the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, geopolitical conflicts, and macroeconomic governance failures [8][12] - The first phase (1970-1972) saw the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system, leading to significant price increases in gold and fertilizers due to supply shortages and increased usage [14][18] - The second phase (1973-1974) was marked by the first oil crisis, where oil prices surged from $2.7 to $13 per barrel, a 381% increase, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply cuts [24][28] - The third phase (1975-1977) experienced economic recession and high inflation, with mixed commodity performance; while many prices fell, oil and coal prices remained strong [31][33] - The fourth phase (1978-1980) was characterized by the second oil crisis, with oil prices reaching $40 per barrel, driven by geopolitical instability and inflation expectations [35][36] Market Reactions - The energy sector consistently outperformed during the commodity bull market, with significant excess returns noted in the energy index during periods of inflation [2][12] - The "Nifty Fifty" phenomenon emerged in the early 1970s, driven by fiscal and monetary expansion, but ultimately collapsed due to macroeconomic reversals and external shocks like the oil crises [12][14] Optimal Assets in Stagflation - Precious metals and oil were identified as optimal assets during stagflation periods, with gold being the most reliable core investment [2][12] - The report suggests that if geopolitical tensions ease, a return to a tech and cyclical market focus may occur, benefiting sectors like non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and semiconductors [12][14] - Conversely, prolonged geopolitical conflicts could lead to stagflation risks, making gold, oil, and chemical sectors critical areas for investment [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S.-Iran war has led to significant volatility across various asset classes, resulting in major losses and bearish sentiment in the markets [1][2]. Equities - Global equities have experienced a severe sell-off during the five weeks of the U.S.-Iran war, with all three major U.S. indices expected to end the month in negative territory [2] - The war's impact on energy and inflation has particularly affected markets in Europe and Asia, with South Korea's Kospi index falling nearly 20% in March due to its vulnerability to energy price shocks [3] - Goldman Sachs has indicated that the "balance of risks has worsened" for equity markets, with an increased probability of stagflation, which historically leads to poor equity performance [4][5] Bonds - Government borrowing costs have risen amid a broad sell-off of developed-market sovereign debt, with bond yields increasing as investors adjust expectations for central bank rate hikes [7][8] - The U.S. and European breakeven curves have surged as markets reprice inflation expectations, with some European bond yields reaching multi-decade highs [10] Currencies - The foreign exchange market has been volatile, with the U.S. dollar index projected to gain around 3% in March, supported by energy-driven stagflation risks [11] - Asian and European currencies are struggling due to higher commodity prices, while Latin American currencies are preferred within the emerging market context [11] Metals - The metals market has seen significant volatility, with gold on track for its worst monthly performance since 2008, influenced by a stronger dollar and rising interest rate expectations [12] - Despite the current decline, there is a bullish outlook for gold, with forecasts suggesting a rebound to USD 6,200 per ounce by the end of June [13] - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply, while copper markets are influenced by economic pessimism [13] Energy - The energy market is at the center of market volatility, with the Iran war disrupting oil and gas supplies, leading to skyrocketing prices [14] - Euro zone inflation has risen above the European Central Bank's target, with energy inflation expected to hit 4.9% in March, up from a contraction the previous month [14][15] - The rapid increase in oil prices poses a risk of rising living costs for consumers, potentially leading to reduced consumption until clarity on price stability is achieved [15]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying certainty amid market uncertainties, particularly influenced by geopolitical tensions and oil price fluctuations [1][2] - It highlights the potential for inflationary pressures in the U.S. due to rising oil prices, suggesting a need to monitor "quasi-stagflation" trading logic's impact on the A-share market [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical and Market Analysis - The geopolitical situation is described as marginally escalating but still manageable, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran amidst military tensions [2] - The report suggests that the market sentiment will fluctuate as the geopolitical landscape evolves, indicating a need for strategic asset allocation [2] - It recommends avoiding high valuation sectors with long performance cycles while focusing on sectors with mid-term growth and performance certainty [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A balanced investment strategy is proposed, focusing on "broad energy + technology narrowing" as a hedging approach against geopolitical uncertainties [3] - The report outlines a selection of "golden stocks" across various sectors, emphasizing their potential for performance based on earnings forecasts and market conditions [4][11] Group 3: Sector-Specific Recommendations - **Energy Sector**: - Baofeng Energy is highlighted for its leading position in coal-based olefins, with a projected net profit of 170 billion yuan in 2026, benefiting from stable raw material costs and rising oil prices [11][12] - Satellite Chemical is noted for its competitive advantages in light hydrocarbon integration, with expected net profits of 70 billion yuan in 2026 [17][18] - **Machinery Sector**: - Autowei is recognized for its potential recovery in overseas equipment demand, with a focus on solar, semiconductor, and lithium battery sectors [23][24] - Kaige Precision is positioned to benefit from improvements in its core products and new growth opportunities in automated assembly lines [28][29] - **Environmental Sector**: - Longjing Environmental is expected to enhance its financial position through a capital increase and is projected to achieve significant growth in green energy projects [33][34] - **Automotive Sector**: - Yutong Bus is anticipated to leverage overseas demand for new energy buses, with a projected increase in market share and profitability [37][38] - **New Energy Sector**: - CATL is forecasted to maintain strong growth in net profits, driven by rising demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries [50][51] - **Construction Materials**: - Dongfang Yuhong is focusing on optimizing its channel structure and expanding into international markets, which is expected to drive growth [56][57] - **Pharmaceutical Sector**: - Zai Lab is highlighted for its promising drug pipeline, with potential for significant market impact upon commercialization [62][63]