证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 白银库存继续下降，酝酿大级别行情 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。 随着就业数据转弱，美联储12月降息概率已大幅上升至80%。阿里CEO表示，服务器上架速度远远跟不上需求增速， 三年内，AI泡沫是不存在的。谷歌AI基础设施负责人在全体大会中表示，公司必须每6个月将AI算力翻倍，并在 未来4到5年内额外实现1000倍的增长，以应对持续上升的AI服务需求。英伟达CEO黄仁勋称：中国将赢得人工智 能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。摩根大通策略师团队认为，未来五年 AI数据中心的建设热潮至少需要5万亿美元。美国9月零售销售额仅增长0.2%，远低于预期，显示美国人正在削减 开支，负担能力危机对消费端的冲击开始显现。ADP周度数据显示，过去四周私人企业裁员 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price has slightly declined, currently around 52.90, with market focus on support levels for long positions [1] - Recent U.S. economic indicators show signs of weakness, with retail sales in September growing only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and a significant drop in consumer confidence index to 88.7 from 95.5 [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][3] Market Sentiment - The dovish shift from the Federal Reserve has led to an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction [3][4] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including calls for further rate cuts due to a weakening job market, have bolstered market confidence [3][4] - The bond market reflects strong expectations for a dovish Fed, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening yield curve [4] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a consolidation phase, with significant resistance at 54.3-54.4 and support around 45.5 [5][9] - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish trend, although market momentum appears to be weakening [5][9] - The current trading strategy suggests positioning for long trades near the support level of 52.00, with a stop loss at 51.60 and a target range of 53.50-53.90 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the bullish trend for gold is expected to continue into 2026, driven by factors such as the easing of the US dollar and declining confidence in the dollar system and assets [2][5][6]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - In 2025, gold prices increased by over 50%, outperforming other major asset classes, primarily due to the US dollar entering a loosening cycle and a decline in investor confidence in the dollar system [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, with two reductions of 25 basis points each, and plans to stop balance sheet reduction, leading to increased dollar liquidity which supports gold prices [5][6]. - The US fiscal deficit has risen significantly post-pandemic, with annual deficits now around 6-7%, leading to increased national debt and rising repayment risks, which negatively impacts confidence in the dollar [5][6]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - The optimistic outlook for gold in 2026 is based on the expectation that the core factors driving gold prices will remain unchanged, despite potential short-term tightening of monetary policy [6][7]. - The anticipated changes in Federal Reserve leadership and potential increases in the fiscal deficit may further pressure the credibility of the dollar, thereby supporting gold prices [6][7]. - Economic slowdown in the US and rising inflation could lead to a stagflation scenario, where gold, as a traditional inflation hedge, would benefit [6][7]. Group 3: Central Bank and Investor Behavior - Global central banks have been increasing their gold purchases, but many, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, still have relatively low gold allocations in their foreign exchange reserves [7]. - Given the uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, it is expected that central banks and global investors will further increase their gold allocations in 2026, providing additional support for gold prices [7]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The current high valuation of gold does not necessarily indicate the end of the bull market, but it may lead to increased price volatility [4][6][7]. - Historical analysis shows that gold's annualized returns are competitive with stocks and significantly higher than bonds, suggesting strong long-term investment value [8][9]. - Gold's low correlation with other assets makes it a valuable addition to investment portfolios, enhancing returns while reducing overall risk [9].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on market sentiment and the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, highlighting a shift in expectations for rate cuts in December and January [4][25]. - It emphasizes the volatility in gold prices and the broader implications for asset management strategies, particularly among fund managers [4][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - The probability of a rate cut in January has increased from 17.4% to 25.2% over two weeks, with expectations for a December cut rising from 40.6% to 58.3% [25][24]. - The article suggests that the market's perception of rate cuts significantly influences stock valuations, particularly regarding the timing of potential cuts [4][25]. Group 2: Gold and Other Assets Performance - Gold prices have seen a significant increase from approximately $2,300 to around $4,000, with a recent decline of 7.2% from this year's peak of $4,381 [5][25]. - Comparatively, the Nasdaq and Bitcoin have also experienced declines of 7.4% and 31.7%, respectively, indicating that gold has outperformed these assets in the current market [5][25]. Group 3: Fund Management and Positioning - Managed positions in COMEX gold have decreased by 10.3%, while silver and platinum have seen declines of 19.8% and 11.6%, respectively, indicating a shift in fund manager strategies [5][13]. - The article notes that fund managers are locking in profits and reducing leverage, contributing to recent asset price declines [4][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The article posits that the global economy may not recover significantly next year, with inflationary pressures potentially impacting investment strategies [28]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring gold prices as a barometer for market sentiment, particularly in relation to economic indicators and geopolitical risks [18][19].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the CFTC's futures market data, particularly regarding gold and other precious metals, and the market's expectations for interest rate changes in December and January [2][26] - It highlights the significant price movements in gold, silver, and other assets, emphasizing the normalcy of price corrections after substantial gains [27][28] - The article also touches on the broader economic implications of potential interest rate cuts and their effects on asset valuations, particularly in the context of fund managers locking in profits [26][30] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Data Analysis - The CFTC data reflects a shift in market sentiment, with the probability of a rate cut in January rising from 17.4% to 25.2% over two weeks [2][26] - Managed positions in gold futures have seen a net long position decrease of 10.3% as of October 7, while silver and platinum also experienced declines in net long positions [4][8][9] - The article notes that gold prices have risen significantly from approximately $2,300 to around $4,000, indicating a potential for normal price corrections [27][28] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Asset Performance - The performance of gold compared to other assets shows that it has outperformed Nasdaq and Bitcoin year-to-date, despite recent declines [28] - The author references the investment strategies of notable figures, suggesting that holding physical gold and silver is a prudent approach amid market volatility [3][29] - The article warns against the mindset of expecting quick profits from high positions, likening it to gambling rather than investing [28] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Future Projections - The article posits that the U.S. is likely to continue lowering interest rates, which could support further increases in gold prices [30][29] - It discusses the potential for ongoing economic challenges, including stagflation, which may drive demand for physical assets like gold [32][33] - The future of gold prices is tied to the actions of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical dynamics, particularly U.S.-China relations [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced volatile fluctuations on November 25, with prices oscillating between 4109 and 4160, ultimately closing with a doji candlestick pattern, indicating indecision in the market [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Economic data supports rate cut expectations, with weak retail sales and consumer confidence data from the U.S. indicating a slowing economy, which enhances gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The Federal Reserve has shown a clear dovish shift, with officials advocating for further rate cuts, raising market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December from 40% to 85% [2] - Upcoming economic indicators to watch include initial jobless claims and Chicago PMI, which may influence market sentiment [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with key resistance at 4175 and support around 4040, indicating potential for continued volatility [3] - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is in the C-wave of an adjustment phase, with the recent price movements confirming a third wave structure, suggesting potential for further upward movement if support at 4109 holds [5]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing power struggle between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is significantly impacting the U.S. economy and the financial well-being of ordinary citizens [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve is viewed as a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, with its primary tasks being to stabilize prices and promote employment [2]. - The Fed operates independently and has the authority to raise interest rates during economic overheating or lower them to stimulate recovery during downturns [2]. Group 2: Trump's Strategies - Trump employs three main strategies to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates: 1. A media campaign attacking Powell's credibility, labeling him as lacking courage and obstructing economic growth [3]. 2. Attempting to remove dissenting members from the Fed, specifically targeting Governor Lisa Cook, which is unprecedented in the Fed's history [3][4]. 3. Appointing loyalists, such as Chief Economic Advisor Stephen Moore, to key positions within the Fed to gain control over monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Trump's tactics mirror those of former President Nixon, who pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates, leading to rampant inflation and necessitating drastic measures by future Fed Chairman Paul Volcker [4][5]. Group 4: Potential Economic Outcomes - Two potential future scenarios have been outlined: 1. A gradual decline in economic vitality as the Fed, under pressure, becomes hesitant to combat inflation, leading to a slow rise in prices to around 3% [7]. 2. A complete takeover of the Fed by the White House, resulting in short-term economic euphoria but potentially leading to a severe economic downturn [9]. Group 5: Implications for Ordinary Citizens - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for protecting the purchasing power of ordinary citizens, ensuring that their savings do not diminish due to political pressures [11]. - The ongoing conflict poses risks to the U.S. economy's future, with potential consequences including high inflation rates and increased mortgage rates, which could lead to a state of "stagflation" [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision point as it approaches the December meeting, balancing between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation nearing 3% [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Fed Chair Powell is caught between two factions: the "preemptive" camp advocating for a rate cut and the "cautious" camp insisting on no further cuts [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have surged from 40% to 80%, putting Powell in a precarious position where any decision could lead to a split within the FOMC [2] - Powell is weighing two options: a "hawkish cut" of 25 basis points in December with a commitment to future restraint, or a "dovish pause" delaying decisions until January [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic data suggests a "stagflation" scenario, with a three-month average job growth falling below 100,000 without significant layoffs, and core inflation remaining steady at 0.3% month-on-month [3] - Concerns arise from the potential for prolonged economic stagnation if rates are cut too slowly or the risk of reigniting inflation if cut too quickly [4] Group 3: Leadership Pressure - The December vote represents not only a decision on economic direction but also a test of Powell's leadership, as he must navigate the delicate balance of opinions within the Fed [4] - Experts indicate that the outcome of the December 19 meeting will be crucial, with global risk assets already reacting to the uncertainty [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a challenging decision regarding potential interest rate cuts amid conflicting economic signals, with some key allies indicating support for a preemptive easing approach [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Market Reactions - New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly have expressed concerns about labor market risks, suggesting support for a rate cut in December [1]. - Following Williams' comments, the market's implied probability of a December rate cut surged from 40% to approximately 70%, indicating a shift towards a dovish stance among investors [2]. - Current market expectations for a rate cut have further increased to around 80% [2]. Group 2: Internal Divisions within the Fed - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are reportedly at an unprecedented level during Powell's tenure, driven by mixed economic signals such as stagnant job growth and persistent inflation near 3% [7]. - Hawkish officials express concerns that rapid rate cuts could undermine necessary policy restrictions, especially as inflationary pressures spread from goods to domestic services [7]. - Notably, four voting Fed officials have voiced worries about further rate cuts, emphasizing the need for caution in the current economic climate [7]. Group 3: Strategies for Decision-Making - Powell is weighing two strategies: "hawkish rate cut" which involves cutting rates in December while setting higher thresholds for future cuts, and "dovish pause" which entails maintaining current rates and reassessing in January [5]. - The "hawkish rate cut" strategy aims to meet market expectations while managing internal dissent, similar to Powell's approach in late 2019 [5]. - The "dovish pause" could prolong existing divisions but may provide more comprehensive data for decision-making [5]. Group 4: Leadership Challenges for Powell - The upcoming decision is not only a test of economic data but also a critical evaluation of Powell's leadership and his ability to unify a divided committee [9]. - Historically, the Fed has not seen more than three dissenting votes on rate decisions since 1992, highlighting the importance of consensus [9]. - The fragile support for a December rate cut is evident, as only a slight majority favored cuts in previous meetings [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing significant internal divisions regarding potential interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell's decision-making power becoming more concentrated as disagreements among committee members reach unprecedented levels [2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell may consider two options to address the divisions: one is to lower interest rates as the market expects, signaling a higher threshold for future cuts; the other is to maintain current rates and reassess in January, which could prolong public disagreements [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice this year, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4%, with a potential third cut in December aligning with Powell's plan to approach neutral rates [4][5]. - Recent comments from key allies of Powell indicate support for further rate adjustments, with market expectations for a December cut rising significantly [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Divisions and Concerns - The current divisions reflect deeper economic contradictions, with stagnant job growth and persistent inflation, indicating a potential "stagflation" scenario [3][4]. - Several voting members have expressed concerns about the pace of rate cuts, fearing that inflation pressures may be escalating, particularly in service prices, suggesting a need for more restrictive policies [6][7]. - The shift in stance from previously supportive members, such as Boston Fed President Collins, highlights the growing hesitance regarding further rate cuts amid stable demand and slightly favorable financial conditions [6][7].